Goldman Sachs said the odds of a recession in the next 12 months have fallen to 20% from 25% earlier.
In a note on Monday, the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 20%, down from an earlier estimate of 25%.
Meanwhile, Goldman is also putting less emphasis on the inverted yield curve, a traditionally reliable indicator of an approaching recession.
But in today's cycle, it may be misguided, due in part to the possibility that the Fed may cut rates to respond to slowing inflation, not a recession, Hatzius said.
For the US, the bank forecast only one remaining interest rate hike, in line with what a majority of investors expect.
Persons:
Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman
Organizations:
Service
Locations:
Wall, Silicon, Brazil, Poland, Chile, —