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The investing environment is loaded with risks, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. AdvertisementStock market investors are facing the risk of huge losses as the economy slows, and there are five rules they should follow to prepare for future headwinds, according to elite forecaster Gary Shilling. The stock market's setup also looks troubling. Shilling has advised investors in Chinese stocks to switch to Indian assets for months, citing factors like better economic growth prospects and population growth. AdvertisementShilling has maintained a notably bearish view on stocks and the economy, despite more investors warming up to the possibility of soft landing.
Persons: Gary Shilling, , Shilling, Steer Organizations: Service, Stock, Reserve, Nvidia Locations: China, India
Read previewDonald Trump says his trade policy would be a way to protect the US from exploitation. Yet, by applying a base tariff on virtually all foreign goods, he's starting a "war against trade itself," Alan Wm. Related stories"Economists agree that high tariffs broadened and deepened the Great Depression, when US unemployment reached 25 percent and we nearly lost our democracy," the distinguished visiting fellow wrote. That's why I think we're going to be entering into a trade war next year." For instance, the new 50% tariffs on Chinese semiconductors may seem extreme, but they target a trade that's just below $1 billion a year, he said.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Alan Wm, Wolff, Trump, Trump's, Kenneth Rogoff, Leland Miller, Biden, Waller, they're Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Republican, Business, Trump, Peterson Institute, Biden Locations: Britain, China, Beijing, America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal trade data is revealing key info on the strength of the consumer economyAs peak shipping season arrives, data from critical supply chain players points to relatively healthy holiday spending, with some important caveats. CNBC's Lori Ann Larocco reports.
Persons: Lori Ann Larocco Organizations: Global
AFP Contributor | AFP | Getty ImagesA perfect storm in global trade is creating a shipping container capacity crunch, fueling a sudden and surprise spike in ocean freight rates. Xeneta ocean freight rates show the rallying spot market and the widening spread between spot and long-term rates. An increase in ocean freight rejections shows the imbalance. Logistics price increases are ultimately passed onto the consumer and the dizzying freight rates during the pandemic were among factors cited by the Federal Reserve as a cause of inflation. The International Chamber of Shipping, which represents major ocean carriers, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Persons: Emily Stausbøll, Stausbøll, Goetz Alebrand, Alebrand, Judah Levine, Freightos, Levine, Wan Hai, HLS, Drewry, Jonathan Gold Organizations: AFP, Getty, U.S ., Xeneta, DHL, Shipping, Americas, DHL Global, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Orient Star Group, MSC, Chamber of Shipping, Honour, Carriers, Maritime Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, AFP, Asia, U.S . West Coast, U.S, China, Malaysia, Singapore, Panama, Latin America, Europe, Chongqing, East Asia, South America, Africa, U.S . East Coast
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump’s trade agenda amounts to a tripling-down of the trade war he waged during his first term in office. That’s nearly five times the total cost as a share of GDP from the 2018-2019 US-China trade war. Trump’s tariff proposals would cost the typical middle-income household at least $1,700 a year, the researchers found. Those aren’t comparable numbers,” Clausing said, referring to the amount of imports targeted by Biden and by Trump tariffs. Likewise, the US International Trade Commission found in a 2023 study that US importers “bore nearly the full cost” of tariffs.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, That’s, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, Clausing, aren’t, , Joe Biden, , Biden, ” Biden hasn’t, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, ” Clausing, Karoline Leavitt, , Bidenomics, ” Leavitt, Leavitt, Moody’s, Mark Zandi, ” Goldman Sachs, ” ‘, ” Chris Krueger Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, UCLA School of Law, CNN, ” Biden, Biden, Treasury Department, US International Trade Commission, , Cowen’s Washington Research Group Locations: New York, China, Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, United States, U.S, Washington
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva (R), with Director of Strategic Communications Julie Kozack, speaks at a press briefing on the global policy agenda during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings at IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, on April 13, 2023. The U.S. would be better served by maintaining its open trade system rather than imposing new punitive duties on Chinese goods, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday, adding that Washington and Beijing should work together to resolve their trade tensions. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that such trade restrictions as those announced by President Joe Biden on Tuesday can distort trade and investment, fragment supply chains and trigger retaliatory actions. "With respect to the tariffs, our view is that the U.S. would be better served by maintaining open trade policies that have been vital to its economic performance," Kozack said. "We also encourage the U.S. and China to work together toward a solution that addresses the underlying concerns that have exacerbated trade tensions between the two countries."
Persons: Kristalina, Strategic Communications Julie Kozack, Julie Kozack, Joe Biden, Kozack Organizations: Monetary Fund, Strategic Communications, International Monetary Fund Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Washington, Beijing, Japan, Germany, China
China remains a "critical supplier" to the world and efforts for a full decoupling remain "difficult, if not impossible," a trade report by Allianz Trade said. That's according to the report which showed that only 27% of companies surveyed in the U.S. were planning to expand in China. The Allianz Trade survey polled more than 3,000 companies in China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the U.S. were surveyed about their outlook for global trade in 2024. More than one-third of respondents plan to increase their China footprint, while only 11% said they would decrease it, the trade survey showed. "China remains the world's critical supplier, from which a full decoupling seems difficult, if not impossible," the Allianz Trade report said.
Persons: Economic Research Ana Boata Organizations: Allianz Trade, Allianz Trade's, Economic Research Locations: Qingdao Port, Qingdao, China, Germany, Spain, France, U.S, Italy, Poland
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChinese exporters are 'more optimistic' than others in our survey: Allianz TradeFrancoise Huang, senior economist for Asia-Pacific and global trade at Allianz Trade, discusses the possible factors behind the positive sentiment.
Persons: Allianz Trade Francoise Huang Organizations: Allianz Trade Locations: Asia, Pacific
Pedro Pardo | Afp | Getty ImagesRussia's close relationship with superpower China is under close scrutiny as Russian President Vladimir Putin meets his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Thursday. "Neither Putin nor Xi can achieve what they want to achieve, both domestically and internationally, without the support of the other. Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping leave after a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony at the third Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on Oct. 17, 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcome ceremony before Russia-China talks in Moscow, Russia, on March 21, 2023.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Pardo, Putin, Sam Greene, they've, " Greene, Xi, It's, Pavel Byrkin, it's, , Natasha Kuhrt, Russia's, Kuhrt, Sergei Savostyanov, Greene, Liu Pengyu, Mikhail Tereshchenko Organizations: Forum, International Cooperation, of, People, Afp, Getty, Xinhua, Democratic, Center for, CNBC, Analysts, Kremlin, Putin, King's College London, Russia, U.S, Reuters, Sputnik Locations: Beijing, China, Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, Central Asia, Russian, U.S, Washington
The European Union must avoid a harmful decoupling of global trade as it mulls tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other goods, the bloc's economic chief said Wednesday. "But this is not bringing us to a theory of decoupling of global trade, which would be a disaster for both parts of the decoupling," he said. "The characteristic of the EU economy is to be more open, more influenced by trade, and less by only internal consumption. This is the reason, the economic reason, why it is in the interest of the European Union to keep the doors of trade open." Meanwhile, several EU nations are nervous about potential Chinese retaliatory trade measures hitting important domestic industries, from German automotives to French cognac.
Persons: Paolo Gentiloni, CNBC's Silvia Amaro, Gentiloni Organizations: European, European Union, CNBC Locations: European Union, Europe, China, EVs, U.S, Russia, Ukraine
AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, FileThe war has shown how effective air defenses can be at denying air superiority, protecting key areas, and threatening high-value aircraft, as well as the costs when capabilities are degraded. Ukraine's air defenses, like its Soviet-era S-300s and US-supplied Patriots, have defeated enemy missile and drone strikes, hindered Russian air operations, and shot down numerous fighter-bombers and other Russian planes. "Ukraine and NATO might reduce risks with a two-prong strategy of strengthening air defenses and boosting infrastructure resilience." Needing more interceptors for the PacificFrom the fights this year, the US can see how it'll need to employ air defenses in a potential showdown with China. Running out of air defenses before the enemy runs out of air threats spells trouble.
Persons: , Bradley Martin, Evgeniy, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Firefighters, Archer Macy, Martin, Shaan Shaikh, We've, Amir Cohen TPX, Shaikh, it's, Andy Wong, Thomas Shugart, Shugart, Joshua Smoot, Heath Collins, Navy Carlos Del Toro, Macy, Mark Wright Organizations: Service, Business, US Navy, Ukraine, AP, Patriots, Institute for, Emergency, Ministry, RAND Corporation, NATO, Western, Central Command, Combat, Navy, RAND, Patriot, US, Missile Defense, Center for Strategic, International Studies, REUTERS, China, Pentagon, Defense, Center, New, Air Force, 37th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, Andersen Air Force Base, US Air Force, Aegis, Missile Defense Agency, Former Navy, CSIS, Pacific Missile, AP Air Locations: China, Ukraine, Israel, Navy, Russia, Congress, Avdiivka, Kharkiv, Russian, Kyiv, NATO, Yemen, Gulf of Aden, Iran, Red, Screengrab, French, Ashdod, South Korea, Japan, Guam, Beijing, New American, Gen, Kauai, Hawaii
Taipei/London CNN —Beijing says it will take “all necessary actions” to protect its rights as US President Joe Biden announced huge tariffs on imports of electric vehicles and other goods from China. “China opposes the unilateral imposition of tariffs which violate (World Trade Organization) rules, and will take all necessary actions to protect its legitimate rights,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters Tuesday in a regular press briefing shortly before the widely anticipated White House announcement. In addition to Chinese EVs, the increase in US tariffs will apply to imports of steel and aluminum, legacy semiconductors, battery components, critical minerals, solar cells, cranes and medical products. The new tariff for solar components will be 50%, while the remainder of the targeted imports will attract tariffs of 25%. Leaders from the Group of Seven developed economies will discuss how to protect their industries at a summit next month.
Persons: London CNN —, Joe Biden, Wang Wenbin, Biden, Wang, , ” Wang Organizations: London CNN, Trade Organization, European Locations: Taipei, London, London CNN — Beijing, China, United States, Europe, Beijing
Joseph R. Biden Jr. ran for the White House as a sharp critic of President Donald J. Trump’s crackdown on trade with China. In office, though, he has taken Mr. Trump’s trade war with Beijing and escalated it, albeit with a very different aim. Those tariffs were first imposed by Mr. Trump and have been maintained by President Biden. But Mr. Biden’s trade war differs from Mr. Trump’s in important ways. Mr. Trump was trying to bring back a broad swath of factory jobs outsourced to China.
Persons: Joseph R, Biden, Donald J, Trump, Trump’s Organizations: White, Mr Locations: China, Beijing
Carlos Barria | Afp | Getty ImagesDifferences between U.S.-led Western and China-aligned economic blocs threaten global trade cooperation and economic growth, a top official with the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday. IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in a speech at Stanford University that events such as the global pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have disrupted global trade relations in ways not seen since the Cold War. "Increasingly, countries around the world are guided by economic security and national security concerns in determining who they trade with and invest in," she said, adding that this has resulted in countries increasingly picking sides between China and the U.S. Trade between the China and U.S. blocs has declined compared with trade among countries within the groupings, Gopinath said. The U.S. bloc mainly includes Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, while China-leaning countries include Russia, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua and Syria.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Carlos Barria, Gita Gopinath, Gopinath Organizations: National Committee, China Relations, China Business Council, Economic Cooperation, APEC, Afp, International Monetary Fund, Stanford University, U.S, IMF, Trade, West Locations: Asia, San Francisco , California, China, Ukraine, Washington, Beijing, U.S, South, Taiwan, Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, Syria
French President Emmanuel Macron (R) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping after delivering a joint statement at the Elysee Palace, as part of the Chinese president's two-day state visit in France, in Paris on May 6, 2024. The French president his Chinese counterpart for a state visit on May 6, 2024, seeking to persuade the Chinese leader to shift positions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and also imbalances in global trade. (Photo by Sarah Meyssonnier / POOL / AFP) (Photo by SARAH MEYSSONNIER/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)Shares of several French cognac makers rallied on Tuesday after France's President Emmanuel Macron suggested that trade tensions between China and the European Union, which could impact the drinks makers, may ease. France's Macron on Monday addressed the ongoing trade dispute with Chinese President Xi Jinping and gifted him a top-range bottle of French cognac which reportedly retails at over $3,200. "I thank the president for his open attitude regarding provisional measures on cognac and for his wish not to implement them," Macron said in a press conference on Monday.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Xi Jinping, Sarah Meyssonnier, SARAH MEYSSONNIER, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau, France's Macron, Macron Organizations: Getty, European Union Locations: France, Paris, Ukraine, China, Europe
Achieving Goals presidential candidate José Raúl Mulino speaks with reporters after meeting with members of the Electoral Observation Mission, in Panama City, Wednesday, May 1, 2024. The case of former President Ricardo Martinelli, who was disqualified from running by the courts because of a past corruption conviction, stands out. Once the favorite to win this year’s presidential race, Martinelli was disqualified from running by Panama’s electoral court in March because of the conviction and sentence. There are seven other presidential candidates, including current Vice-President José Gabriel Carrizo, former President Martín Torrijos, and Rómulo Roux, another former minister under Martinelli. Martinelli has thrown his support behind Mulino, even releasing campaign videos from inside the Nicaraguan embassy.
Persons: Daniel Zovatto, El Nino, Fitch, , José Raúl, José Raúl Mulino, Matias Delacroix, Mulino, Panama that’s, Ricardo Martinelli, Martinelli, José Gabriel Carrizo, Martín Torrijos, Rómulo Roux, Organizations: CNN, Central, Latin America, Wilson, Americas Society, Panamanian, Gallup, Nicaraguan Locations: Panama, Central American, Panama City, United States, Venezuela, Panamanian, Colombia, Mulino, Americas, Nicaragua’s, Nicaraguan
London CNN —European Union officials have raided the offices of a Chinese company as part of a probe into subsidies, exposing rising tensions between the bloc and one of its biggest trading partners. The European Commission said Tuesday that it carried out “unannounced inspections” at the premises of a company making and selling security equipment in Europe, which it suspects may have benefited unduly from state subsidies. “The commission has indications that the inspected company may have received foreign subsidies that could distort the (EU’s) internal market,” the EU’s executive body said in a statement on its website. The China Chamber of Commerce to the EU said Wednesday that it had been informed that a Chinese company was the target of the investigation. The Foreign Subsidies Regulation, which came into force last July, is aimed at addressing market distortions caused by subsidies from foreign governments and ensuring that EU companies are competing on a level playing field.
Persons: , , ” Ursula von der Leyen, Janet Yellen Organizations: London CNN — European Union, European Commission, China Chamber of Commerce, EU, CNN Locations: Europe, Poland, Netherlands, Romania, China, Puglia, Italy, United States, Beijing
The US is drafting sanctions on Chinese lenders, The Wall Street Journal reported. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Previously, the threat of US secondary sanctions has already sparked a pullback in Chinese-Russian financial dealings, including restricted yuan payment transactions. New sanctions could go as far as cutting China from accessing the US dollar, the linchpin currency used in global trade.
Persons: , hasn't, State Anthony Blinken, Wang Webin Organizations: Street Journal, Service, Lawmakers, Street, Center for Strategic, International, Washington, State, Reuters Locations: China, Russia, Washington, Beijing, Moscow, Ukraine, Russian, Western, Europe
President Joe Biden is calling on the U.S. Trade Representative to triple the China tariff rate on steel and aluminum imports as he makes the rounds in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania. Biden's demand to raise the current 7.5% average tariff on steel and aluminum is an effort to make clear that his administration's recent warnings about China's trade practices are not empty threats. In an interview with CNBC's Sara Eisen, Yellen said that tariffs were not off the table if those overcapacity qualms went unaddressed. As China shrugs off the overcapacity concerns, the Biden administration is doubling down on what it perceives as the threat to global trade. "China's policy-driven overcapacity poses a serious risk to the future of the American steel and aluminum industry," National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard said on a call with reporters on Tuesday.
Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Janet Yellen, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Yellen, China shrugs, Biden, Lael Brainard Organizations: Economic Cooperation, U.S . Trade, United Steelworkers, Economic Locations: Asia, San Francisco, China, Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh
Trade is being weaponized, EU's Dombrovskis says
  + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrade is being weaponized, EU's Dombrovskis saysEU's Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis discusses global trade at the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings.
Persons: EU's Dombrovskis, Trade Valdis Dombrovskis Organizations: Trade, International Monetary
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast, saying the economy had proven "surprisingly resilient" despite inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts. The IMF now expects global growth of 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast, and in line with the growth projection for 2023. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the findings suggest the global economy is heading for a "soft landing," following a string of economic crises, and that the risks to the outlook were now broadly balanced. "Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose," he said in a blog post. But dimmer prospects in China and other large emerging market economies could weigh on global trade partners, the report said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, U.S Locations: Nanjing, China
Lower-income workers without a college degree could be at the most risk of AI job replacement. AdvertisementNothing is certain about the future of AI technologies, but three things are becoming more clear. That said, if and when some AI job replacement does come, some workers could be more at risk than others. Conversely, 17% of high school graduates had jobs with high AI exposure, and 14% had jobs with both high AI exposure and low performance requirements. Re-training workers who lose their jobs due to AI could help move the needle in a more positive direction.
Persons: , It's, Angus Deaton, Deaton, he's Organizations: Service, of Economic Advisors, Walmart, Target Locations: China
Opinion: What does Iran really want?
  + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Peter Bergen | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +10 min
“A modern, strong, peaceful Iran could become a pillar of stability and progress in the region,” former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote in 2006. Iran introduced into the Iraqi war zone highly effective roadside bombs known as EFPs – Explosively Formed Penetrators – that wounded and killed hundreds of American soldiers. The official US Army history of the Iraq War concluded that Iran was the only winner of that war. Iran’s ‘cookie-cutter approach’Norman Roule was the top US intelligence official on Iran from 2008 to 2017. The withdrawal of the US troops from neighboring Iraq is a key goal of Iran, which exerts considerable influence over some Iraqi politicians.
Persons: Peter Bergen, Osama bin Laden, Shah, Henry Kissinger, Iran’s ayatollahs, Karim Sadjadpour, Sadjadpour, Reagan, bin Laden, bin, al, Saddam Hussein, , Noam Chomsky, Iran’s, Norman Roule, Roule, propping, Bashar al, Assad, Christine Abizaid, , Trump, Obama, Donald Trump, , Benjamin Netanyahu, hasn’t, Joe Biden, Netanyahu, hadn’t, Biden, Abizaid, Mohammed Shia Organizations: New, Arizona State University, Apple, Spotify, CNN, Saturday, East, CIA, US Army, Israel, US National Counterterrorism Center, US Treasury Department, ‘ Deemed, United Nations, Israel’s, Hamas, Iran, White, ISIS Locations: New America, Israel, Iranian, Damascus, Iran, United States, Palestine, , Lebanon, Beirut, Saudi, al Qaeda, Iraqi, Saddam, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Red, Suez, Gaza, New York, Damascus ”, Jordan
A vessel has been seized by "regional authorities" between the United Arab Emirates and Iran, maritime security agencies said on Saturday, days after Iran warned it could close the area to sea traffic. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said the vessel had been seized 50 nautical miles (92 km) northeast of the Fujairah, an area close to the Strait of Hormuz that forms the entrance to the Gulf. Marine tracking sites said the vessel was the MSC Aries of Zodiac Maritime, an international shipping company partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer. Reuters could not immediately confirm that and UKMTO said it could not provide more information when asked if the regional authorities were Iran and if the seized vessel was MSC Aries. The United States and Britain have carried out strikes against Houthi targets in response to the attacks on shipping.
Persons: Eyal Ofer, UKMTO, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Alireza Tangsiri, Abraham, Joe Biden Organizations: United Arab, Maritime Trade Operations, ., MSC Aries, Zodiac Maritime, Zodiac, MSC, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Israel, Abraham Accords, Revolutionary Guards Locations: United Arab Emirates, Iran, Hormuz, U.S, UAE, United States, Gaza, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Syria's, Damascus, Tehran, Yemen's Iran, Britain
Blaming Israel — which has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility — Iran vowed retaliation. Jordan on Saturday declared its airspace closed, in a possible precautionary move given the likelihood of its territory being overflown by any missiles exchanged by Iran and Israel. On Friday, Biden warned Iran against attacking Israel but said such a scenario could be imminent. On Tuesday, the Revolutionary Guards' naval head, Alireza Tangsiri, said the force could close the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, if necessary. The United States and Britain have carried out strikes against Houthi targets in response to the attacks on shipping.
Persons: Israel —, Zodiac, Eyal Ofer, Israel Katz, Joe Biden, Biden, Lloyd Austin, Yoav Gallant, Gallant, Alireza Tangsiri, Abraham, Hasan Alhasan Organizations: Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Hamas, Jordan, Saturday, Guards, Aries, MSC, Gortal Shipping, Zodiac Maritime, House, Iran, U.S . Defense, Pentagon, State, Revolutionary Guards, United Arab, Israel, International Institute for Strategic Studies, MSC Aries, Maritime Information Center Locations: Iranian, Syria's, Damascus, Strait, Hormuz, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Tehran, Iran, Iran's, State, United States, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Britain
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