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☆ Australia's central bank will probably be unable to cut rates in 2024, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAustralia's central bank will probably be unable to cut rates in 2024, economist saysPaul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities at HSBC, discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep rates on hold and the outlook for its monetary policy.

Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Reserve Bank Locations: Australia, New Zealand

☆ ‘A real wildcard’: World’s largest wealth fund issues inflation warning on hot commodity markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The chief executive of the world's largest wealth fund says there are many wild cards in financial markets right now, but the "big worry" for investors is what a commodities rally could mean for the inflation outlook. Oil and copper prices have climbed around 13%, respectively, year-to-date, while gold has repeatedly notched fresh record highs in recent months. Asked whether he had any concerns about hot commodity markets, NBIM's Tangen replied, "Yes, the big worry is just what that could mean for inflation right?" He added, "So, if energy and raw material prices continue to move up, that is going to feed through to end-product prices, which are going to be higher. And that could be the real wildcard when it comes to inflation expectation."

Persons: Nicolai Tangen, CNBC's, NBIM's Tangen Organizations: Norges Bank Investment Management

☆ Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries shows the growing threat AI drones pose to energy markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Ukraine's campaign of attacks against Russian oil refineries is demonstrating how relatively cheap drones that utilize artificial intelligence could pose a major threat to global energy markets. Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries this year with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day, according to report published by JPMorgan earlier this month. Some 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes, according to the bank. "Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation," Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee. The deployment of AI drones also has broader implications for global energy markets, according to Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at Bernstein.

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, Lloyd Austin, Biden, Austin, we've, John Kilduff, Bob Brackett, Bernstein, Brackett Organizations: Reuters, JPMorgan, Kyiv, . Defense, Senate Armed Services Committee, Financial, Again Locations: Ukraine, Ryazan, Ryazan Region, Russia, Taneco, Kyiv, Moscow, Russian, China, India

☆ Oil prices could spike to $100 if Iran directly attacks Israel, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The price of global benchmark Brent crude oil could spike to $100 a barrel if Iran directly attacks Israel, a former senior White House energy official said. @LCO.1 YTD mountain Brent crude oil, YTD Oil rallied last week after a missile attack destroyed Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military officials. "If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack Iran," Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on the social media platform X , tagging Ayatollah Khamenei. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear that the Biden administration is worried about rising energy prices during congressional testimony Tuesday. "Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation," Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Persons: Bob McNally, McNally, George W, Brent, YTD Oil, Israel, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Khamenei, Israel Katz, Biden, terrify, Daniel Yergin, Yergin, CNBC's, Natasha Kaneva, Lloyd Austin, Austin Organizations: Brent, White House, Rapidan, Bloomberg News, YTD, Israel, Iran, Rapidan Energy, Biden, P Global, JPMorgan, Defense, Senate Armed Services Committee Locations: Iran, Israel, U.S, Washington, Damascus, Syria, OPEC, Tehran, Islamic Republic, Strait, Hormuz, Persian, Kyiv, Ukraine

☆ JPMorgan says oil could rise to nearly $100 a barrel on Russia's 'surprising' actions ahead of U.S. election
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The price of global benchmark Brent crude oil could surge to $100 a barrel ahead of the U.S. election as Russia slashes its output, according to JPMorgan. "The shift in Russia's oil strategy is surprising," Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients in a note Wednesday. Russia's cuts could push Brent to $90 in April and nearly $100 by September, which would put pressure on the Biden administration in the runup to the November presidential elections, Kaneva wrote. The White House could, however, tap the strategic petroleum reserve with space to release up to 60 million barrels, Kaneva wrote. Demand destruction, in turn, would result in lower crude prices, according to the analyst.

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, Brent, Biden, Kaneva Organizations: Brent, JPMorgan, Reuters Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Moscow, OPEC, U.S

☆ The Reserve Bank of Australia probably won't cut rates in 2024, HSBC says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Reserve Bank of Australia probably won't cut rates in 2024, HSBC saysPaul Bloxham, HSBC's chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, says the central bank is "more concerned about inflation being too high than they are about the fact that growth has slowed."

Persons: Paul Bloxham, HSBC's Organizations: Bank of Australia, HSBC Locations: Australia, New Zealand

☆ JPMorgan is out with its global commodities outlook. Here's where it sees opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors will need to be tactical to harvest returns from commodities next year but there is an area where J.P. Morgan is making a broadly bullish call — precious metals. The firm expects a breakout rally the middle of 2024 with gold prices hitting a targeted peak of $2,300 an ounce, according to the investment bank's commodities outlook. Silver, meanwhile, will push above $30 per ounce on the rate cutting cycle, according to J.P. Morgan. The global economy is expected to slow, but will avoid a recession from 2024 to 2025, making it difficult to provide an overarching bullish or bearish call on commodities, according to the bank. There is value in oil and gas but how investors time their entry and exits will be critical, according to J.P. Morgan.

Persons: Morgan, Gold, Brent, J.P Organizations: Federal, Bloomberg, Precious Metals, Commodities, Morgan, New York Mercantile Exchange, Livestock Locations: Agriculture, China

Now Widodo also needs a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States for Indonesian materials to qualify for the generous EV subsidies available under the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). What it got after last week's bilateral meeting was a commitment "to develop a critical minerals action plan (...) with a view toward establishing the foundation to launch future negotiations on a critical minerals agreement". The joint statement included some pointers as to what the United States expects from that action plan in terms of environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards. A limited trade agreement on critical minerals could become an even more restricted deal if it were to apply only to non-Chinese material streams. South Korea has the advantage of having had an FTA with the United States since 2012.

Persons: Joko Widodo, Tesla, Widodo, Washington, Biden, Joe Manchin, Janet Yellen, Manchin, Trafigura, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Vale Tbk, U.S, Biden, GREEN, Benchmark Minerals, Australia, Greenpeace, of, Group, Minerals, Korea, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sorowako, Indonesia's, Asian, United States, Indonesia, United, GREEN Indonesia, Philippines, Ulsan, South Korea, Morocco, South

Washington in mid-October issued a general license lifting through April sanctions on the country's oil production and exports. POLICY SHIFTThe U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry to try to oust President Nicolas Maduro, whose 2018 re-election it considers a sham. In the last three weeks, PDVSA has signed new term deals to sell products, including fuel oil and asphalt cement with little known firms. LINING UPShortly after sanctions were eased last month, Trafigura chartered a vessel to pick up a fuel oil cargo at a Venezuelan port. The firm that won the offer is Romania-registered Ke Lo Ke Mgmt, PDVSA documents seen by Reuters showed.

Persons: Marco Bello, Nicolas Maduro's, PDVSA, Nicolas Maduro, Joe Biden's, Trafigura, Lo, Ke Lo Ke, Gunvor, Marianna Parraga, Gary McWilliams, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Gunvor, Reuters, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Puerto Cabello, Carabobo, HOUSTON, Washington, U.S, Venezuela, PDVSA, Venezuelan, Romania

☆ Nathaniel Taplin — Asia Editor, Heard on the Street at The Wall Street Journal
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Nathaniel TaplinNathaniel Taplin is the main columnist on China's economy and political economy for Heard on the Street, The Wall Street Journal's economic and financial commentary section. Before moving to the Journal, he spent five years in Beijing and Shanghai with Thomson Reuters and the independent macro consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics. While in China he traveled widely and reported on issues ranging from local government debt to protests against financial products gone bust and the market crises of 2015 and 2016. At Gavekal, he headed up global commodities coverage and wrote extensively on China’s energy sector, industry and trade. Nathaniel is a two time finalist for the Society of Publishers in Asia award for excellence.

Persons: Nathaniel Taplin Nathaniel Taplin, Heard, Nathaniel Organizations: Thomson Reuters, Society of Publishers Locations: Asia, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Gavekal

Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange in London, Britain, September 27, 2018. Rebuilding the London nickel contract is clearly very much work in progress. FIXING NICKELOthers, meanwhile, are looking to muscle into the LME's nickel price discovery domain. The Shanghai market also took a big collateral hit from the London turmoil, volumes on its nickel contract collapsing by 53% last year relative to 2021. The blow-out of the nickel contract and the resulting near-death experience of both brokers and exchange have sapped confidence in the historical market of last resort.

Persons: Simon Dawson, Elliott, Nicolas Aguzin, Matthew Chamberlain, hasn't, it's, Ireland's, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: London Metal Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Elliott Associates, Jane, Trading, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Bloomberg, London, Global Commodities Holdings, Abaxx Commodities Exchange, Canadian, Technologies Inc, Shanghai Futures Exchange, EV, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, London's, China, Shanghai, U.S

☆ Oil prices are now at the mercy of financial flows, says Citi's Ed Morse
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil prices are now at the mercy of financial flows, says Citi's Ed MorseEd Morse, Citi Research head of global commodities, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how the oil supply and demand dynamic changes with a war between Israel and Hamas, his expectations on where prices should go from here, and more.

Persons: Ed Morse Ed Morse Organizations: Citi Research, Hamas Locations: Israel

☆ Is there a need for oil demand destruction? We're 'not quite there,' Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIs there a need for oil demand destruction? We're 'not quite there,' Morgan Stanley saysMartijn Rats, global commodities strategist and head of the European energy team in equity research at Morgan Stanley, speaks to CNBC's Dan Murphy at ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi about the outlook for the oil market in 2024.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Martijn, CNBC's Dan Murphy Locations: ADIPEC, Abu Dhabi

☆ Coal makes a quiet resurgence in the clean energy era
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —As momentum shifts toward clean energy, coal has had some unexpected staying power. A new report by the International Energy Agency found that global coal demand hit an all-time high in 2022 amid the energy crisis, eclipsing the previous record set in 2013. For example, Panasonic built a new electric vehicle plant in Kansas to aid its transition to clean energy. Why it matters: Coal, the highest carbon emitting and dirtiest energy source, is the single biggest contributor to human-created climate change. The Hollywood writers’ strike is overThe Hollywood writers’ strike is finally over after 148 days.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, “, Dow tumbles, It’s, Stocks, Krystal Hur, ”, Bill Adams, Moody’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Commodities, Bloomberg, International Energy Agency, IEA, Panasonic, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Comerica Bank, Government, Fitch, Hollywood, Writers Guild of America, WGA, SAG Locations: Ukraine, Europe, United States, Kansas

☆ Crisis at Evergrande deepens as it misses another bond payment
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —Evergrande Group has just missed another bond payment, casting further doubt over the future of the embattled property developer at the epicenter of China’s real estate crisis. China’s property industry once accounted for as much as 30% of the country’s gross domestic product. Questions about financial stabilityConcerns over China’s economic stability have resurfaced, driven by the deepening financial crisis at Evergrande, said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management. On Sunday, Evergrande surprised investors with an announcement that it was unable to issue new notes due to the investigation into Hengda. It was the first criminal probe launched against Evergrande since it was hit by the debt crisis nearly two years ago.

Persons: Evergrande, Tao Wang, Stephen Innes, ”, Innes, Mengchen Zhang, Marc Stewart Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Evergrande, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Getty, China, Asia Economics, UBS, CNN, Evergrande Locations: China, Hong Kong, AFP, Asia, Evergrande

☆ How two former Goldman Sachs traders built the No. 1 US coal exporting business
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Peter Bradley and Spencer Sloan have built a $1 billion commodities firm over the last eight years. Javelin Global Commodities is now the No. Javelin Global Commodities has grown to become the No. 1 exporter of American coal, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar to the company. "It's pretty disheartening that vast fortunes are still being made in activities that are driving dangerous, and potentially catastrophic, global warming."

Persons: Goldman, Peter Bradley, Spencer Sloan, Goldman Sachs, Joseph Curtin Organizations: Bloomberg, Commodities, Service, International Energy Agency, Riverside Shipping, Rockefeller Centre Locations: Wall, Silicon, America, Ukraine, Europe, Moscow

U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $1,938.90. The yuan hit two-week highs against the U.S. dollar after data showed China factory output and retail sales in August beat forecasts, making greenback-priced bullion more attractive for Chinese buyers. "The outlook for rates to be kept high for longer has been keeping non-yielding gold prices under pressure," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. We, therefore, do not view monetary policy as supportive of gold until well into 2024," HSBC said in a note. "Institutional investors have yet to commit to gold, as net long positions on the CME and ETF holdings indicate."

Persons: Yuan, Bullion, Jun Rong, Swati Verma, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: U.S, Reuters Graphics, IG, HSBC, CME, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Bengaluru

A company logo of Shanghai Futures Exchange is displayed at a booth during LME Week Asia in Hong Kong, China June 14, 2016. REUTERS/Bobby Yip Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING/LONDON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) is looking into the possible launch of nickel futures for international use, a potential challenge to the London Metal Exchange's (LME) contract, five sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Average daily LME nickel volumes plunged because of the crisis. CME Group (CME.O) is also looking to launch a nickel contract that would settle against prices gathered from a platform to be launched by British-based Global Commodities Holdings (GCH). CME did not respond to a request for an update on its plans for a nickel contract.

Persons: Bobby Yip, ShFE, Nickel, GCH, Pratima Desai, Siyi Liu, Julian Luk, Veronica Brown, Alexander Smith Organizations: Shanghai Futures, REUTERS, Rights, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London, Reuters, International Energy Exchange, CME, Global Commodities Holdings, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, China, Rights BEIJING, LONDON, British, Singapore, Abaxx

In top consumer China, premiums climbed to as high as $55 an ounce over global spot prices this week, traders said, from $20-$38 last week. The policy-measures to support the economy are expected boost physical gold demand, said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals. Official data on Thursday also showed that the People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings to 69.62 million fine troy ounces at end-August. Local gold prices were trading around 59,200 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, up nearly 2% in three weeks. In Japan, where domestic gold rates were trading at record levels this week, dealers charged $0.5 premiums.

Persons: Peter Fung, Bernard Sin, Harshad Ajmera, JJ, Anushree Mukherjee, Swati Verma, Rajendra Jadhav, Maju Samuel Organizations: Chinatown, Metals, People's Bank of China, U.S ., MKS, JJ Gold, Traders, Rajendra, Thomson Locations: China, Japan, India, Greater China, Kolkata, Local, Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Bengaluru, Mumbai

☆ Why Biden’s strong economy feels so bad to most Americans
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

By almost any objective measure, Americans are doing much better economically than they were nearly three years ago, when President Joe Biden took office. Inflation hangoverSharply higher prices in 2021 and 2022 marked a painful economic moment for households around the world. The partisan gapCNN’s latest poll shows that Republicans and Democrats are both souring on President Biden’s handling of the economy. “People are no longer telling us how they feel about the economy — really, they’re telling us how they feel about the president,” Wolfers said. Either way, that poses a political problem for President Biden, whose re-election campaign has sought to highlight the economy’s strengths.

Persons: New York CNN —, Joe Biden, SSRS, “, There’s, ”, Justin Wolfers, Wolfers, That’s, ” Wolfers, you’d, ” Morgan Stanley, Jamie Kelter Davis, Carola Binder, —, Biden, It’s, Biden’s, David Axelrod, — CNN’s Matt Egan Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, University of Michigan, P Global Market Intelligence, Atlanta, Bloomberg, Getty, United, Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haverford College, Biden, “, White House Locations: New York, Wolfers, United States, Ukraine

☆ China is 'less influential' on Australia's economic growth than in the past, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is 'less influential' on Australia's economic growth than in the past, says economistPaul Bloxham, Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities at HSBC, breaks down Australia's quarterly GDP and says the RBA needs to continue raising interest rates to combat inflation.

Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: China, Global Commodities, HSBC Locations: Australia, New Zealand

☆ The greenback is 'losing some influence' in the oil markets — and it means a partial de-dollarization is likely, says JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US dollar is losing some influence in the oil markets, according to JPMorgan. The correlation between the USD's strength and oil prices has weakened, per the bank's research. The analyst drew the conclusion by looking at the impact of a strengthening dollar on oil prices. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe relationship exists because the dollar is traditionally inversely correlated to oil prices — meaning that when the greenback's value rises, oil prices fall, and vice versa. This trend is because more oil is now being transacted in non-dollar currencies, JPMorgan said in its report, such as the Chinese yuan.

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, Kaneva, Jahangir Aziz, —, It's Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Brent, Reuters, Russia Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Russia, Ukraine, Washington

Saudi Arabia has spearheaded efforts to support prices, making large voluntary output cuts as part of a production deal agreed by the OPEC+ producer group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia. Saudi Arabia's previous announcements have come ahead of its official selling prices, which typically emerge in the first week of the month. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, meanwhile, has said that Moscow had agreed with OPEC+ partners on the parameters for continued export cuts in October. Saudi Arabia and Russia could withdraw the cuts at any point, said OANDA analyst Craig Erlam, "but I can't imagine they'll be in any rush and risk sending the price tumbling again." The oil market is vulnerable to price spikes due to low inventories and underinvestment in new oilfields, a senior official at global commodities trading firm Trafigura (TRAFGF.UL) said on Monday.

Persons: Alexander Novak, Craig Erlam, Brent, Russell Hardy, Xi, John Evans, Stephanie Kelly, Paul Carsten, Natalie Grover, Mohi Narayan, Yousef Saba, Andrew Hayley, Jason Neely, David Goodman, Mike Harrison Organizations: Companies, U.S . Federal, of, Petroleum, Saudi, . West Texas, . U.S, Federal, Thomson Locations: Companies Saudi Arabia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Moscow, India, Kuwait, Jizan, Oman, China, ., New York, London, New Delhi, Dubai, Beijing

☆ APPEC-Trafigura exec says $72-$88 is fair price for oil, eyes Russia cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"The markets are probably a bit too relaxed," Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at Trafigura, told the APPEC conference in Singapore. "I suspect there's a little bit more to come," he said, referring to interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve to fight inflation. Luckock added that Russia has a different set of challenges "evacuating their crude products out of the country", which could prolong tighter supplies. "I guess the issue a little bit with the Russians has always been the credibility of the cuts," he said. Reporting by Florence Tan, Jeslyn Lerh and Trixie Yap; Editing by Jamie Freed and Tom HogueOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Florence Tan, Ben Luckock, Brent, Luckock, it's, Jeslyn Lerh, Trixie Yap, Jamie Freed, Tom Hogue Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Federal Reserve, OPEC, Organization of Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Singapore, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Russia

☆ 'Fragile Five' oil producers will have more oil in market than demand, says Citi's Edward Morse
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Fragile Five' oil producers will have more oil in market than demand, says Citi's Edward MorseEd Morse, Citi Research head of global commodities, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss Morse's thoughts on the supply and demand picture for crude oil, why Morse isn't more concerned with the crude oil picture and much more.

Persons: Edward Morse Ed Morse, Morse Organizations: Citi Research

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