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UBS names top luxury stocks as market shifts toward 'quality'
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS names top luxury stocks as market shifts toward 'quality'Gerry Fowler, UBS's head of European equity strategy, names his top luxury picks, as the market shifts in favor of '"quality" stocks.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, UBS's Organizations: UBS
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall-caps set to gain as interest rate cuts come through, UBS saysGerry Fowler, UBS's head of European equity strategy, says small-cap stock performance looks set to improve as central bank interest rate cuts play out.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, UBS's Organizations: UBS
Meme stocks, which gained popularity through social media platforms like Reddit and Twitter, have attracted retail investors looking to make a quick profit. In 2021, GameStop shares skyrocketed by more than 1,500% in just a few weeks, driven by a coordinated effort from retail investors on the Reddit forum r/WallStreetBets . This means that retail investors are often in a disadvantaged position when trading. Cashing in So, what can investors do to capitalize on the trading phenomenon without taking on the risks associated with meme stocks? Gooch-Peters suggests looking at the exchanges themselves, citing Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as an example.
Persons: Hannah Gooch, Peters, Gooch, Gerry Fowler, Fowler Organizations: GameStop, Sanlam Investments, Twitter, UBS, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, Quality, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, CBOE
Gooch-Peters pointed to Visa — which has a 60% operating profit margin — as a more sustainable investment opportunity. This creates a strong competitive moat and helps to sustain the company's high profit margins over time. Gerry Fowler, chief European equity strategist at UBS, echoed the sentiment about the importance of a company's competitive moat while picking stocks. The UBS strategist pointed to the attempts of Apple, then the world's biggest company, to break into the payments network sector. The UBS strategist also cautioned that impenetrable moats might sometimes pose a downside risk to investors.
Persons: Hannah Gooch, Peters, you've, Gooch, London Business School . Gooch, " Gooch, Gerry Fowler, Fowler, Flower Organizations: Nvidia, Sanlam Investments, CNBC, London Business School, Visa, Sanlam's, Quality, UBS, Apple, world's, MasterCard, Apple Card, Mastercard, U.S
This Wednesday at London Business School, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick will ask two market experts where's best to invest right now. Fowler leads UBS' European equity strategy and global derivative strategy teams. Gooch-Peters is a member of Sanlam's global high-quality equity team and leads the global equity team's investment strategy. Fowler leads UBS' European equity strategy and global derivative strategy teams. Gooch-Peters is a member of Sanlam's global high-quality equity team and leads the global equity team's investment strategy.
Persons: Steve Sedgwick, Gerry Fowler, Hannah Gooch, Peters, Fowler, Gooch, Hannah Organizations: CNBC, London Business School, UBS, Chief European, Sanlam Investments, BNP Paribas, Citi, Sanlam Locations: Abrdn, London, . New York, Singapore
Europe is set for a "weak stagnation" that will dampen the market, but several sectors and stocks stand out to UBS as good plays this year as growth stabilizes and inflation slows. "Our macro outlook for Europe is for a weak stagnation that takes European equities modestly lower but delivers another year of actionable divergences between sectors and stocks," UBS analysts led by Gerry Fowler wrote in a Jan. 19 note. "In 2024, we think the factors that will perform are domestic (smaller companies), quality and growth," the analysts wrote, adding that slower growth and lower yields should reduce the headwinds for the valuations of growth stocks. 'Well-positioned, domestic, quality, growth companies' "Well-positioned, domestic, quality, growth companies" that UBS has given buy ratings include Spanish clothing company Industria de Diseno Textil, British bakery chain Greggs and online real estate platform Rightmove as well as French construction player Vinci . It has a buy rating on ASML Holdings , SAP , Infineon Holdings and Capgemini , giving them potential returns of 22%, 17%, 40% and 10%, respectively.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, Vinci, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, International Monetary Fund, Industria de Diseno Textil, Software, Gartner, ASML Holdings, SAP, Infineon Holdings Locations: Swiss, Europe, Spanish, China
UBS has highlighted several stock ideas it favors for 2024, as it forecasts massive cuts to interest rates next year. The investment bank expects the U.S. will see slower economic growth and strong disinflation leading to an interest rate cut of 275 basis points . Given the economic outlook, UBS strategists recommend a number of trades to clients for 2024. All the sectors apart from software trade on bigger discounts than normal against their US peers," the UBS strategists said. To reflect that view, UBS strategists said they favored gaining exposure to the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF in 2024.
Persons: Jonathan Pingle, Gerry Fowler, Sean Simonds, KWEB Organizations: UBS, Federal, CNBC, U.S, Investors, China Tech, Internet Technology, CSI China Internet Locations: U.S, China
Investors will look to the upcoming earnings season to see whether stocks can recover from recent losses or if more declines are ahead. "All year, we've seen the steady weakening in European soft data and, more recently, hard data. In a note titled "Q3 Earnings - Make or break," Barclays analysts echoed that sentiment, suggesting that despite resilient earnings thus far, more mixed third-quarter economic indicators hint at equally varied results. UBS analysts have identified stocks that could surprise, both positively and negatively, when their earnings results are released in the coming weeks. Fowler said UBS analysts have historically been pretty accurate at predicting surprises, especially when combined with a value investing bias, which has tended to outperform.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, we've, Fowler, CNBC's, Fowler isn't, Emmanuel Cau, Stocks Organizations: UBS, Barclays, Santander, Ryanair, Siemens Energy, Nordic, Universal Music, AstraZeneca Locations: Europe
UBS: We expect positive and negative surprises on earnings
  + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS: We expect positive and negative surprises on earningsUBS Head of European Equities Gerry Fowler discusses the stocks he expects to surprise to the upside and downside when it comes to earnings.
Persons: Gerry Fowler Organizations: UBS
"The recent decline in European luxury stocks reflects the uncertainty over the European economy and also the uneven growth outlook for the Chinese economy," Garnry said. Reuters GraphicsTHE LUXURY GAPAlthough luxury valuations have come down, they are still well above the rest of the market. The end of the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign was widely put down to investors losing appetite for luxury stocks as well as the growth of Novo's anti-obesity drug Wegovy. Some analysts have turned cautious on the luxury sector, with UBS last week reducing its estimates to account for the risk of slowing Chinese consumption. Gerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy and global derivative strategy at UBS, said risks in luxury stocks started to become more apparent in May.
Persons: Louis, Stephanie Lecocq, Bernard Ahkong, Peter Garnry, Garnry, LVMH, Morgan Stanley, Gerry Fowler, Bernstein, Gilles Guibout, Lucy Raitano, Mimosa Spencer, Amanda Cooper, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Paris Fashion, U.S, UBS O'Connor Global, Alpha, Saxo Bank, Reuters Graphics, GAP, Novo Nordisk, UBS, Bank of America, AXA Investment Mangers, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, PARIS, Europe, U.S, China, United States
Lags starting to appear in areas of U.S. economy: UBS
  + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLags starting to appear in areas of U.S. economy: UBSGerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy at UBS, discusses Fed cuts, the U.S. economy and market responses.
Persons: UBS Gerry Fowler Organizations: UBS Locations: U.S
MILAN, Aug 24 (Reuters) - It's hard to be bullish about real estate in an environment of sharply higher interest rates. Two years of steep falls have made European property a short-seller favourite as sector valuations and investor positioning plunged to levels last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. A gauge of European real estate shares (.SX86P) has halved in value to about $131 billion since 2021, but the mood shifted in July as earnings expectations improved. "Things aren't great for real estate companies and that's why they are trading at a huge discount. Meanwhile, BlackRock's iShares European Property ETF (IPRP.L) has seen a 10% surge in inflows from late February, according to data on its website.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, Zsolt Kohalmi, BlackRock's, Natixis, Banks, Charles de Boissezon, Kohalmi, UBS's Fowler, Danilo Masoni, Sinead Cruise, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: MILAN, European Equity, UBS, European Central Bank, Pictet, Advisors, P Global Market Intelligence, Property, Bank of, Societe Generale, Equity, Thomson Locations: Europe, London, U.S
UBS has identified stocks at risk of dragging one of Europe's largest equities indexes lower by 10% by the end of this year. In addition, it said the consensus estimate of 11.9x for the forward price-to-earnings ratio is "too high" — another reason for stocks to fall. UBS screened for stocks with high volatility, negative earnings revisions already underway, and valuation multiples not yet in the single digits. The above table includes top performers in 2023 so far that may be both overcrowded and expensive, like luxury and semiconductor stocks, according to UBS. UBS also screened for more defensive, less volatile stocks that score well on its framework.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Stocks, ASML, Siemens, Airbus, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Unilever, Iberdrola Locations: Europe, Swiss
Investment banks are bearish about European stocks because of a rapid deterioration in economic data. Strategists at UBS expect the Stoxx Europe 600 index to decline by 12.5% to 410 by the end of the year from its current level of 468. .STOXX 1Y line "The 'new orders' outlook for many of the service sectors in Europe seems to have deteriorated quite rapidly. The Wall Street bank's strategists noted that the global growth acceleration behind the recent rally in European stocks appears to be fading. Opportunities in a bleak market Despite the bleak outlook for the market, UBS' Fowler sees some opportunities.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, Fowler, CNBC's, We've, Sebastian Raedler Organizations: UBS, of America Locations: Europe, June's, Germany, France
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS: Outlook for service sectors in Europe seems to have deteriorated quite rapidlyGerry Fowler, head of european equity strategy at investment bank UBS said a significant factor behind the bank's poor outlook for European equities is the worsening outlook for new orders in many of Europe's service sectors.
Persons: Gerry Fowler Organizations: UBS, Outlook Locations: Europe
He explained that while stocks on the Nasdaq Composite require significant growth to deliver returns, European banks can offer similar returns at lower risk. One of the main reasons for his confidence in European banks is their resilience amid changing interest rates. The strategist said UBS expects interest rates to rise further and stay "high for longer." European banks are accessible to investors through ETFs such as the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks ETF in the U.S. and the Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Banks in Europe. However, higher interest rates have increased the cost of borrowing and depressed valuations in the property sector, potentially increasing the risk to lenders.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, Fowler, CNBC's, they're Organizations: Nasdaq, Big Tech, Tech, Nvidia, UBS, Banks, Citi Locations: U.S, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket to go lower but not in a volatile fashion, UBS strategist saysGerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy and global derivative strategy at UBS, discusses what to make of the fall in the VIX volatility index and recent economic data.
Persons: Gerry Fowler Organizations: UBS
UBS strategist says there's too much risk on the Nasdaq
  + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS strategist says there's too much risk on the NasdaqNasdaq stocks require significant growth to deliver returns based on their current valuation, according to Gerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy at UBS. He believes European banks can offer similar returns at lower risk.
Persons: there's, Gerry Fowler Organizations: UBS, Nasdaq Nasdaq
Rising interest rates The European Central Bank's ongoing rate-hiking trajectory is one reason behind UBS' bullish stance on banks. Banks: No competition Banks' stellar returns are due to their expanding net interest margins. According to UBS, automakers face headwinds despite being cheap at 5.6 times earnings and 0.78 times price to book. The investment bank said European automakers face structural challenges while competing against Tesla and Chinese rivals. According to the bank's strategists, European car manufacturers also have less ownership of their supply chain, particularly in battery technology and software, which poses a risk to their profit margins.
Sell mining shares and invest in energy stocks instead — that's the message from the Swiss investment bank UBS. On the other hand, UBS expects energy stocks to continue delivering bumper cash flow this year, according to UBS. The following table shows eight buy-rated energy stocks with double-digit price targets. The table below shows six sell-rated mining stocks with significant downside to their price targets. UBS analysts have forecast that free cash flow from the mining sector will decline as bulk commodity prices retrace from their highs.
European equity investors should stay steer clear of semiconductor stocks and load up on banks this year, according to UBS' Head of European Equity Strategy Gerry Fowler. According to FactSet data, there were 24 banks in the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index with a P/B ratio of less than 1. The index is accessible to investors through a number of ETFs, such as those from iShares (Ticker EXV1-DE) and Lyxor (Ticker BNK-FR). Cautious on chip stocks, pharma Fowler urged caution on semiconductor stocks — something of a hot sector this year — which he described as a "tactical decision." He noted that this year would see weak U.S. growth and a weak dollar, making pharma and household and personal products weak choices.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropeans banking sector stocks could rise by 20%, UBS strategist saysGerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy at UBS, said interest rates in Europe are set to rise, and this should contribute to positive earnings revisions and push up European banking stock prices by 20% from current levels.
LONDON, March 6 (Reuters) - Stock market investors are calling time on the idea that the Federal Reserve, and other major central banks, have their back. The Nasdaq (.IXIC) is still up about 12% year-to-date and a sub-index of European tech stocks has gained 15% (.SX8P). A Reuters poll of 300 global asset managers last month showed 70% of those surveyed believed these so-called value stocks would outperform this year. Another sign investors are turning towards value shares is the reduced premium they are paying for growth stocks. "Central banks will keep rates high."
The region-wide STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was down 0.5% by 0914 GMT, but came off a one-month low hit earlier in the session. The policy tweak was widely seen as the beginning of a potential end to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy and comes just as hawkish messages from other major central banks last week doused hopes of an end to monetary policy tightening any time soon. Rate-sensitive real estate (.SX86P) stocks led the losses in the STOXX 600, falling 2.5% to hit their lowest in more than six weeks. The real estate sector was also dragged lower by shares of Aroundtown SA (AT1.DE) and Derwent London (DLN.L), which fell 11.4% and 3.5% respectively, after Berenberg cut their price targets. Among individual stocks, shares of Orange (ORAN.PA) slipped after the French telecoms group said its deputy chief executive and head of finance is leaving the company.
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