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Conflict in the Middle East escalated over the weekend as Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel, and traders braced for a response. Investors have already been on edge as of late amid climbing oil prices and recent economic data that shows inflation is remaining sticky. Rockier times could be ahead, too, noted Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Tax-loss harvesting involves selling losers in your taxable account and using these losses to offset realized gains within your portfolio. Extending duration involves adding exposure to bonds with greater price sensitivity to changes in rates.
Persons: Paul Christopher, Christopher, rebalancing, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Information Technology, Communications Services, BlackRock, Treasury Bond ETF Locations: Fresh, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock
"We believe the recent back up in rates is probably the last best opportunity to extend duration," wrote Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist, Americas, at BlackRock. Generally speaking, the value of a bond goes up as interest rates go down, with longer-dated bonds seeing the biggest gains. While bond funds have been seeing inflows this year, there are still plenty of investors with excess cash in short-term accounts. Different funds that offer that type of exposure include the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) , the SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) . Investors shouldn't go overboard with adding duration, because the long-term bonds on the market carry extra risk, Akullian said.
Persons: BlackRock's, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, Kristy Akullian, It's, Akullian, Investors shouldn't Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investment Company Institute, BlackRock, CNBC, Treasury Bond ETF, Research, Investors Locations: Americas, BlackRock, US10Y
But Chaudhuri believes that stocks won't hit their 2022 lows, and that any slowdown will be mild. On the other hand, the US economy has shown signs of strength so far this year, and Chaudhuri believes that when a slowdown finally comes, it'll be both relatively mild and predictable. Within the bond market, Chaudhuri specifically recommends investors use a barbell strategy to gain exposure to both ends of the yield curve. As for the equity market, Chaudhuri said that from a historical perspective, value stocks generally outperform in a macroeconomic regime characterized by higher inflation and rates. Another benefit of value stocks is that they are currently trading more cheaply than their growth counterparts.
Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas, said that she expects inflation to still be above 3% by the end of 2023, driven by services inflation. However, there's also the other part of inflation which is services inflation. Services inflation makes up about 60% or so of the consumer basket," Chaudhuri said. One way to play this is through infrastructure vehicles, like the iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) . The iShares TIPS ETF have a total return of about -10.4% this year.
Work your cash; buy bonds Chaudhuri said it was time to rethink the role of bonds, as a higher-rate environment sees fixed income yields rise. BlackRock also said investors can earn income in the "comparative safety" of cash-like instruments through ultra-short duration securities. Reallocate away from growth stocks Growth stocks, such as Big Tech, were an investor favorite in an era of low rates. But this year, tech stocks have been among the worst-performing sectors . Live with inflation Inflation is set to stick around, given the continued strength coming from services and shelter, according to BlackRock.
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