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☆ Germany’s economy is on shaky ground and glimmers of hope are few and far between
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"The data confirm that German industry is still in recession," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC. Exports – which are a major cornerstone of the German economy – fell by 4.6% in December and 1.4%, or 1.562 trillion euros ($1.68 trillion), across the year. Meanwhile, factory orders data seemed promising at first glance as it reflected an 8.9% increase in December compared to November. "Orders excluding large-scale orders actually fell to a post-pandemic low," she added. For 2023 overall in comparison to the previous year, factory orders were down 5.9%.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Christian Lindner, Holger Schmieding, –, Franziska Palmas, Schmieding Organizations: Greens, Federal, Economic Affairs, of Finance, Berenberg Bank, CNBC, Industrial, Capital Economics Locations: Germany, Europe

REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Industrial output down 0.2% in Aug vs down 0.1% forecastEconomists expect further contraction in coming monthsBERLIN, Oct 9 (Reuters) - German industrial output shrank in August for the fourth consecutive month, the federal statistics office said on Monday, an indication that the sector remains under serious pressure, stoking recession fears. Industrial production fell slightly more than expected in August by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The further drop in German industrial production in August was better than it looked as it was driven by volatile components, said Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics. However, she continued to expect high interest rates and falling demand to lead to a further contraction in German industrial output in the coming months. "Thin order books despite last week's increase, and high inventories all indicate that German industrial production will continue moving sideways rather than gaining momentum anytime soon," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Franziska Palmas, Destatis, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Friederike Heine, Maria Martinez, Ozan Ergenay, Gerry Doyle, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: ThyssenKrupp, Duisburg, Germany, BERLIN, Europe, Palmas

☆ Germany risks falling back into recession as car industry sputters
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Olesya Dmitracova | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —Industrial production in Europe’s biggest economy fell 1.5% in June compared with May, driven by a 3.5% drop in Germany’s vast automotive sector. The decline in German industrial output, much steeper than forecast by economists, raises the risk that the manufacturing heavyweight will contract again later this year, potentially falling back into recession. The construction sector, where output shrank by 2.8%, also had a negative impact on overall industrial production, the country’s statistics office said Monday. “German industry remains in rough waters,” Salomon Fiedler, economist at Berenberg, said in a note Monday, noting last year’s energy price shock and weakness in US and Chinese demand, among other factors. Berenberg expects Germany to fall back into “a mild recession” in the second half of this year, Fiedler added.

Persons: “, ” Franziska Palmas, Jörg Krämer, Hildegard Müller, ” Salomon Fiedler, Fiedler, — Mark Thompson, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Capital Economics, Auto, German Automotive Industry Association, Volkswagen Locations: Germany, Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, “

Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% on a quarterly basis between April and June and was up 0.6% year-on-year, national statistics bureau ISTAT said. ISTAT gave no numerical sector breakdown of its preliminary second-quarter GDP estimate, but said industry and agriculture output decreased whereas services grew marginally. The 0.3% contraction left Italy with so-called "carryover" growth of 0.8% this year, assuming GDP would be flat in the remaining two quarters. "Italy is an advanced industrial country and the weakness in industry is much more important than the tourism sector for the economy's health," said Lorenzo Codogno, head of LC Macro Advisors and former chief economist at Italy's Treasury. ISTAT also said annual inflation slowed to 6.4% in July from 6.7% in June, on a EU-harmonised consumer prices.

Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Franziska Palmas, Intesa, Lorenzo Codogno, Alvise Armellini, Elvira Pollina, Sharon Singleton, Alistair Bell Organizations: Gross, Reuters, Capital Economics, ISTAT, LC Macro Advisors, Italy's Treasury, Thomson Locations: ROME, Italy, Rome, Milan

☆ Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Business climate index fell to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in MayBoth business expectations and current business conditions fellProbability of longer recession risesBERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. "Sentiment in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. Indeed, expectations were much more pessimistic, with the related Ifo index falling to 83.6 from May's 88.3. "The probability has increased that gross domestic product will also shrink in the second quarter," he said. "We feel confirmed in our forecast that the German economy will shrink again in the second half of the year," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

Persons: Clemens Fuest, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Urban, Franziska Palmas, Joerg Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Rene Wagner, Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: ING, Companies, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany, German, Europe

☆ Inflation in Europe drops to lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Inflation in Europe has fallen to its slowest pace since Russia invaded Ukraine, bolstering the case for the region’s central bank to bring interest rate hikes to an end soon. That’s the lowest rate of inflation since February 2022, when Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor, sending global energy prices soaring. The pace of food price rises eased for the second month running in May, while energy prices actually fell. Inflation has fallen sharply in Germany, France, Italy and Spain, national data published Wednesday showed. Separate data published Tuesday showed lending by banks in the euro area stagnated further in April, with loans to households barely growing at all.

Persons: Price, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, ” Franziska Palmas, ”, Bert Colijn Organizations: London CNN, Russia, European Central Bank, ECB, US Federal Reserve, Bank of, Capital Economics, ING Locations: Europe, Ukraine, Moscow, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Bank of England, Palmas

☆ German economy enters recession as first-quarter GDP data is revised lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The German economy entered a technical recession in the first quarter of this year, as households tightened spending. Data from the German statistics office on Thursday showed a downward revision to GDP (gross domestic product) from zero to -0.3% for the first three months of the year. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates again at its next meeting on June 15. German Central Bank Governor Joachim Nagel said earlier this week that the ECB has "several" more rate increases ahead. He is one of the most hawkish members of the central bank.

"The German economy remained stuck in the mud at the start of 2023, only barely avoiding recession," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief eurozone economist Claus Vistesen said. The German economy shrank by a revised 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, reviving fears of a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. "A gradual recovery is underway, despite a persistently difficult environment," German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in the presentation of the forecasts. "The recent renaissance in industrial production could very well carry the economy through the second quarter," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said. "However, we are afraid that looking into the second half of the year, the German economy will continue its flirtation with recession."

☆ German industrial output rises more than expected in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) - German industrial production rose significantly more than expected in February due in part to vehicle manufacturing, increasing 2.0% on the previous month, the federal statistical office said on Thursday. "Despite the strong rebound, industrial production is still slightly below its pre-pandemic level." Industrial output is expected to increase further in the coming months. Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts that industrial production will post a 3.0% quarter-on-quarter expansion in the first quarter, comfortably reversing the 0.5% decline in the fourth quarter. Year-on-year, industrial production rose 0.6% in February.

☆ Euro zone services firms enjoy buoyant March but factories struggle -flash PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Jon Nazca/File PhotoSummary Euro zone March flash PMI at 54.1, a 10-month highData adds to evidence euro zone will dodge recessionGrowth unbalanced, however, as factory activity fallsLONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - Business activity across the euro zone unexpectedly accelerated this month as consumers splashed out on services, but weakening demand for manufactured goods deepened the downturn in the factory sector, surveys showed. S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, bounced to a 10-month high of 54.1 in March from February's 52.0. SERVICES SHINEA PMI covering the euro zone's dominant services industry jumped to 55.6 this month from 52.7, well above all forecasts in the Reuters poll which had predicted a decline to 52.5. An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, slipped back below breakeven to 49.9 from last month's 50.1. The euro zone PMI input costs index slipped to 46.4 from 50.9.

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