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☆ This biotech ETF could be poised for a breakout after a few challenging years, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Like so many speculative growth ETFs and stocks, the S & P SPDR Biotech (XBI) ETF is nowhere close to its former all-time high from early 2021. Even though the ETF now is up considerably from that point, many traders still have wanted nothing to do with it. We can understand why, especially when so many other stocks surpassed their respective former highs many months ago. The vertical blue lines depict when the 50-DMA crossing OVER the 200-DMA led to strong and extended upside follow through. It's been a challenging few years for XBI, but as these charts show, the blueprint for a continued comeback is there.

Persons: It's, XBI, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: SPDR Biotech Locations: Nasdaq

☆ Bitcoin is on the verge of a bullish breakout again. What to watch on the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Despite the wild ride from a performance and volatility perspective, over the last six months, BTC has continued to do one thing very well – adhere to the technicals. It never violated the breakout zone from October'23 and hit the target by early March. Each prior falling wedge pattern breakout was accompanied by its RSI moving to overbought territory. Two Bullish Patterns on One Chart The second and third bullish formations appear on this chart. To reiterate, these targets are attained simply by adding the height of each pattern to the breakout points.

Persons: bitcoin, Let's, it's, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: SEC, BTC Locations: bottoming

☆ The charts say this energy stock is showing signs of leadership that must be respected
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

One of the best performing stocks in the underperforming energy sector looks ready for another potential up leg, according to the charts. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has underperformed the S & P 500 thus far in 2024, but with a year-to-date gain of about 8.5%, it's actually the fifth best sector out of 11. From the closing low in May 2023 to its recent closing high on April 5, it gained a whopping 109%. However, when the stock finally emerged from that condition a year ago, demand resurfaced, and the strong advance commenced. Lastly, even after MPC's recent 20% decline, the stock has drastically outperformed both the XLE Energy ETF and the S & P 500 since the COVID lows.

Persons: it's, haven't, Said, XLE, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Marathon Petroleum, MPC, Marathon Oil, ConocoPhillips, XLE Energy

☆ The key levels to watch on Nvidia's stock chart with its big earnings report almost here
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

That's not a lot of wiggle room if the stock reacts negatively to earnings: if the stock undercuts $915 (and stays below it), the breakout would be nullified. In other words, if an upside gap is filled this time instead, the market could be telling us that something has changed. In other words, NVDA has had many years of success both as a company and as a stock. It would take a lot more than a reaction to a single earnings report to change that. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: it's, we're, That's, NVDA, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Nvidia

☆ Chart analysis signals the bull market has further to go with possible S&P 500 upside target of 6,100
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the S & P 500 making a fresh all-time high Wednesday morning, it has erased the 6% pullback in short-order. By late March, momentum began to slow, and it became clear that it would take some time to see the next bullish pattern. That means there still has not been a successful bearish pattern (big or small) since last October. If the S & P 500 can't hold this latest push to new highs, then a bullish formation like this could be constructed. The bottom line is this: Strong trends are made from both bullish patterns working and bearish patterns failing.

Persons: Frank Cappelleri Organizations: CNBC Pro

☆ ‘Civil War’ sends a message that’s more dangerous than the violence it depicts onscreen
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( John Blake | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

In “Civil War,” tanks trample democracy. But the messages they send may be more dangerous than the violence depicted onscreen: The collapse of democracy is inevitable. In the film, Humphrey Bogart plays Rick, the cynical owner of a Moroccan nightclub at the onset of World War II. John Springer Collection/Corbis Historical/Getty ImagesOther World War II-era films like “Don’t be a Sucker,” which emphasized racial and religious tolerance in America, emphasized the same message. The box office success of “Civil War” ensures, though, that more “American carnage” stories are likely headed our way .

Persons: Yuval Noah Harari, Harari, Volodymyr Zelensky, ”, Alex Garland’s “, Donald Trump, Casablanca ’, Humphrey Bogart, Rick, “ We’ll, Dooley Wilson, Ingrid Bergman, Everett, Rick —, Adolf Hitler’s, Democracy’s, Cristóbal, Berry, “, Frank Capra, Frank Sinatra, Sinatra, ” Frank Sinatra, John Springer, Kermit Roosevelt III, Roosevelt, ” Roosevelt, Reagan, Obama, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama —, Diana Walker, ” Reagan, Reagan’s, Barack Obama, Chuck Kennedy, Trump, hasn’t, Walt Whitman, Whitman, ” Whitman, ” Read Whitman, ” Walt Whitman, Ian Beacock, ” Beacock, Beacock, Ivan Illich, ” Kirsten Dunst, John Blake Organizations: CNN, Casablanca, paragon, Library of Congress, Nazi, Convention, Former, Lions, Hulton, “ Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Russian, America, United States, “, Casablanca, Moroccan, Adolf Hitler’s Nazi, Nazi, Charlottesville , Virginia, Vietnam, Kansas, Kenya, Denver , Colorado, Austrian, China

☆ Bank stocks seem poised for a breakout, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bank stocks have been in comeback mode since making a key low post the regional bank crisis in 2023. A new breakout could be on the horizon, according to the charts. Two of the most popular bank ETFs are the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and the SPDR S & P Bank ETF (KBE) . Both are lagging the S & P 500 in 2024, which is +8.2% YTD. The bottom line is that both KRE and KBE have been forming bullish patterns, and we could see breakout attempts soon.

Persons: KRE, it's, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, P Bank ETF

☆ Mayor Adams to Meet With Pope Francis in Rome
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Dana Rubinstein | William K. Rashbaum | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mayor Eric Adams will travel to Rome on Thursday to meet with Pope Francis, becoming the latest in a recent succession of New York City mayors to pay respects to the leader of the Catholic Church. The trip comes as Mr. Adams, a moderate Democrat facing languishing poll numbers and a federal criminal investigation, prepares to run for re-election next year in what is expected to be a contested primary. A spokesman for the mayor had no immediate comment when asked about the trip; roughly an hour later, the mayor’s press office released an advisory that Mr. Adams would be in Rome later this week. The advisory mentions “travel to the Vatican City,” but did not specify if he would meet with the pope. But three sources familiar with Mr. Adams’s itinerary confirmed that he would see Pope Francis.

Persons: Eric Adams, Pope Francis, Adams, Frank Carone Organizations: Catholic Church Locations: Rome, New York City, Vatican City, ”

☆ A tip from the charting pros for navigating this difficult market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Currently, the S & P 500 just endured four 1% declines in a month for the first time since last October (5). The index's 20-day moving average has undercut the 50-day moving average for the first time since November, and there's a noticeable potential three-month topping pattern in play, as well. The 20-day moving average just crossed above the 50-day moving average, and both lines have started to curl higher. To drive this point home further, the upside-down version of the current S & P 500 looks a lot like… the S & P 500 (right-side-up) from last fall, as the index was coming back from the August-October correction. Here's a picture of the biggest bullish pattern from 2023, which was triggered soon after the 20-day moving average crossed over the 50-day moving average.

Persons: permabears, permabulls, it's, Frank Cappelleri

☆ Apple shares could be primed for a rebound, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investors have gotten so used to the stock making new highs every year that during the times in which this doesn't happen, concerns intensify. AAPL vs. its 200-day moving average AAPL has also been trading below its 200-day moving average for over two months. Indeed, it's spent more time below the long-term moving average over the years, but reclaiming the line has triggered newfound strength in the past. The big topping pattern is not bearish Another potential positive is that Apple's sporting a big bearish topping pattern on its weekly chart. DISCLOSURES: Cappelleri personally owns AAPL stock.

Persons: There's, it's, Said, AAPL, Cappelleri Organizations: Apple, Downside

☆ This little-known stock is one of the few making new highs. The charts signal it can keep going
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

On Tuesday, 267 S & P 500 stocks made new 20-day lows. Only one S & P 500 component made a new 20-day high. As is clear, the stock has broken out of one bullish pattern (blue) and is trying to trigger another one (green). Lastly, VLTO's former parent company, DHR, has underperformed both the S & P 500 and the industrials sector since it topped in 2021. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: it's, VLTO, It's, Frank Cappelleri

☆ If yields start moving at a faster pace, stocks will suffer, says Frank Cappelleri
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIf yields start moving at a faster pace, stocks will suffer, says Frank CappelleriFrank Cappelleri, Founder and President of CappThesis, lays out the technical signals the markets are sending.

Persons: Frank Cappelleri Frank Cappelleri

☆ CappThesis founder on regional banks ETF: Been a comeback story since last March
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCappThesis founder on regional banks ETF: Been a comeback story since last MarchFrank Cappelleri, CappThesis founder and president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss his thoughts on the overall equity market, Cappelleri's thoughts on the attempted comeback from the real estate sector, and more.

Persons: Frank Cappelleri

☆ Why the next 10 trading days are a make-or-break moment for this bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 has been higher two weeks later all five times. The S & P 500 popped 1.1% on the day of the release. If this happens, it could finally infect the S & P 500, however. The first clue would be seeing the S & P 500 down two weeks after a CPI report. Ultimately, the S & P 500 can pull back to the 4,800 zone and remain above the breakout zone.

Persons: we've, –, hasn't, …, We'll Organizations: Treasury

☆ Cathie Wood's ARK ETF is forming a bottoming pattern, poised for a breakout, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But following more than a year of erratic behavior from Cathie Wood's flagship vehicle, the ARK Innovation Fund appears to be forming a basing pattern that could herald a breakout ahead. Bullish pattern developing However, the ETF deserves our attention from a technical perspective since it could be getting closer to breaking out of a two-year basing pattern. And as the chart shows, this has prompted a second bullish formation to be constructed – a big cup and handle pattern. If a breakout through the two-year base does occur, the odds suggest that it will get traders' attention once again. If nothing else, it's important to understand what you're investing in, especially a very active ETF like ARKK.

Persons: ARKK, That's, Price, Tesla, It's Organizations: Innovation, Google, VanEck Semiconductor, Coinbase Locations: ARKK

☆ S&P 500 can pull back 7-8% and still keep the 6,100 breakout target: CappThesis' Frank Cappelleri
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 can pull back 7-8% and still keep the 6,100 breakout target: CappThesis' Frank CappelleriFrank Cappelleri, CappThesis founder and president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss bitcoin's price rebound, the latest gold rally, latest market trends, and more.

Persons: Frank Cappelleri Frank Cappelleri

☆ This major ETF that's home to Meta and Disney is looking to break out again, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-20 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Communications Services Select SPDR ETF (XLC) , home of Meta, Alphabet and Disney, is doing one of the following at any given time this year: Breaking out, digesting said breakout and then breaking out again. We'll notice that the monster reversal happened a solid four months before the S & P 500 topped out in early 2022… and we can blame Meta (META) for that. Meta tailwind When META cracked back then, it took XLC with it. However, it, too, has a constructive chart pattern – a potential large base that is almost two years in length. This ETF is VERY illiquid, thus, it's not the best trading vehicle… That said, one particular holding has a similar looking pattern: Disney (DIS) .

Persons: XLC's uptrend, XLC, it's, NWSA, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Meta, Netflix, News Corp, Communication Services Locations: XLC

☆ Reading the charts: How to know when this stock market bull run is over
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 just achieved its last upside target of 5,180 a few days ago. The S & P 500 has closed above its own intra-day midpoint 80% of the time since October lows. The index's longest streak of "good closes" (closes above the mid-point) since the October lows has been nine. Consistently strong market breadth Market breadth (or internals) can be measured different ways, but simply tracking the percent of stocks advancing every day is both the simplest and most useful. From this perspective, the S & P 500 has had positive internals 70% of the trading days since the October lows.

Persons: It's, That's, they've, we'll

☆ These 3 restaurant stocks are breaking out, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This prompted us to investigate the group further, which revealed that various stocks are sporting constructive technical formations. Restaurant stocks charts showing strength McDonalds (MCD) has had a wild ride over the last 10 months and now sits at the same price level that it was trading at last April — eleven months ago. MCD isn't the only restaurant stock that's sporting an attractive technical pattern. On the weekly chart, Restaurant Brands International (QSR) looks very similar to MCD, having formed its own inverse-head-and-shoulders formation over the last year. While this is no indication of what could happen now to MCD, YUM and QSR, it shows how breaking through multi-year resistance can attract momentum.

Persons: that's, —, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Brands, Texas

☆ This ETF has 30% upside as the IPO market heats up, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There are various ETFs that hold recent IPOs, including the Renaissance Capital Greenwich Funds' Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) . The 200-day moving average is the most popular long-term moving average and one of the best long-term trend indicators. The IPO ETF bounced from the line last fall and has been trading above it through the first two months of 2024. Seeing IPO stay above the upward sloping 200-day moving average is the best-case scenario. Two IPO Holdings Investors should be aware the IPO ETF isn't very liquid, meaning that its average daily volume isn't robust.

Persons: RYAN, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Renaissance Capital Greenwich Funds, RSI, Ryan Specialty Holdings

☆ This struggling energy ETF could be due for a comeback, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Many ETFs and stocks have been rallying over the last four months, and some have been making new all-time highs. The OIH Oil Services ETF is not one of them. Crude oil All energy-related stocks and ETFs are beholden to crude, which has been struggling since topping out in June 2022. Crude oil recently bounced from its lows and is trying, once again, to leverage a potential bullish chart formation. This chart shows exactly how well the ETF has adhered to this multiyear upward sloping trading channel.

Persons: It's, OIH, We've Organizations: OIH Oil Services

☆ These 2 under-the-radar stocks are outperforming during the sell-off and ready to breakout
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Only 10% (or about 50) of the S & P 500's holdings advanced on Tuesday's market-wide sell-off, which is an extremely low amount. Being up on a very big down session isn't the only thing that the stocks have in common. In fact, they are two of just 10 S & P 500 holdings currently trading over the $1L mark. Primed to outperform the market again All that said, AZO and ORLY have not outperformed the S & P 500 over the last two years. But their recent relative lines vs. the SPX now resemble the patterns from 2019-21, right before strong relative moves commenced.

Persons: AZO, they've, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: O'Reilly Automotive, ORLY, & $ Locations: ORLY, AZO's, …, AZO

☆ This volatile ETF not for the faint-hearted might be breaking out, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

An ETF that's down 80% from its all-time high or one that is up 110% from its all-time low? Both of these outlandish percent moves describe the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) , which is down 80% from its February '21 high and now up 110% from its October '23 low. The only discernable point here is the spike in early February'21, which lined up exactly with the ETF's all-time high. The ETF had flirted with piercing this line before – most recently this past fall - but each attempt failed before 2024. Any index, ETF or stock that's in a long-term uptrend is trading above an upward sloping 200-day moving average.

Persons: Hope, we're, MSOS, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Cannabis ETF

☆ The 10-year Treasury yield sits at a critical juncture. What the charts say will happen next
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The market, in the Fed's case, is the 10-year Treasury yield . However, for both stocks and bonds, the charts can help us understand the underlying trends, patterns and the pertinent support and resistance levels. The first thing to consider is this: The 10-year yield has been leading the Fed since 2018. Coming out of Covid, the 10-year yield bottomed in August 2020 and kept going … the FOMC finally acquiesced, but not until March 2022, initially believing that inflation was transitory. Ironically, the 10-year yield is around the same level now as it was in the 1960s.

Persons: yearrate, YearYield, we're, we've, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Federal, Fed Locations: Covid

☆ Forget the 'Magnificent 7,' these Nasdaq stocks are next in line to lead rally, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

We know all about the Nasdaq-100 index and the 'Magnificent 7' hype lately, but what about the stocks next in line? Well, the Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ) tracks the next biggest 100 Nasdaq stocks after the Nasdaq 100 – roughly Nasdaq stocks Nos. This isn't a surprise given that tech is the biggest sector in the Nasdaq Composite itself. Most importantly, the top 10 NDX stocks represent nearly 46% of the entire index. In fact, a similar scenario occurred in 2022 that eventually led to QQQJ outperforming NDX later in the year.

Persons: QQQJ, QQQJ outperforming NDX, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Nasdaq, NASDAQ Locations: QQQJ, Technology

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