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More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn. The Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkBut this trend is especially distinct in the Northeast, a region that's home to particularly impacted metros. By this indicator, a recession started in October, confirmed further by accelerating job erosion, Danielle DiMartino Booth said.
Persons: , Danielle DiMartino Booth, it's, Frances Donald, Donald, We're, Gary Schilling Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, QI, Bloomberg, Wall Street Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt, California, Hawaii, New Orleans, Honolulu, San Francisco, Cleveland , Detroit, Pittsburgh, Northeast, New York City, New York
April saw the highest number of corporate bankruptcies in a year, S&P Global said. Eroding bets of an interest rate cut contribute to this, as burdened business throw in the towel. AdvertisementCorporate bankruptcies increased in recent months amid teetering confidence in a quick interest rate pivot. AdvertisementBy one measure, rising costs did slow when a rate cut looked likely in early 2024. But last month's stubborn inflation and slowing GDP made a Fed cut look unlikely, and yields shot up to 8.11%.
Persons: , April's, Frances Donald Organizations: P Global, Service, Federal, ICE, Fed, Investment
Economist Frances Donald told Bloomberg TV that a sharper Fed pivot is ahead. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementMarkets are right to price in a Federal Reserve policy pivot but should brace for a rate-cutting cycle that's sharper than expected, economist Frances Donald told Bloomberg TV. "We believe we are heading into a proper downturn that will require a proper easing cycle." So we're not exiting the period in which rate hikes become really impactful in the economy," she said.
Persons: Frances Donald, , Donald, We're, Danielle DiMartino Booth Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Manulife Investment Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Manulife Investment's Frances Donald and Ariel Investments' Charlie BobrinskoyCharles Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and head of the investment group at Ariel Investments, and Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management global chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss consumer depletion of excess savings, geopolitical risks dampening the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, and more.
Persons: Manulife Investment's Frances Donald, Ariel Investments, Charlie Bobrinskoy Charles Bobrinskoy, Frances Donald Organizations: Ariel Investments, Manulife Investment Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestor focus needs to be on where growth momentum is going forward, says Manulife's Frances DonaldCharles Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and head of the investment group at Ariel Investments, and Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management global chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss consumer depletion of excess savings, geopolitical risks dampening the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, and more.
Persons: Manulife's Frances Donald Charles Bobrinskoy, Frances Donald Organizations: Ariel Investments, Manulife Investment Management
A soft-landing, stagflation scenario is worse than a short recession, a Manulife economist told CNBC. "A soft landing, stagflation type of environment where you get no growth and no Fed cuts, that's worse for most investors." AdvertisementAdvertisementA soft landing would spell more woes for investors compared to a short recession, according to Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist and Strategist Frances Donald. A short recession is the only thing likely to invite rate cuts. A soft landing, stagflation type of environment where you get no growth and no Fed cuts, that's worse for most investors," Donald said.
Persons: Frances Donald, , Donald Organizations: CNBC, Service, Manulife Investment Management Global, Labor
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI do see a recession ahead, says Manulife Investment's Frances DonaldFrances Donald, Manulife Investment Management global chief economist, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss what the August jobs report signals about the economy, whether we are heading into a recession, and more.
Persons: Manulife Investment's Frances Donald Frances Donald, Steve Liesman Organizations: Manulife Investment Management
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Muted markets U.S. markets reacted little to the Fed's rate hike. A much-anticipated Fed hike The Federal Reserve hiked by 25 basis points , taking rates to a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest since 2001. However, Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to a subsequent rate hike, saying the central bank will make decisions "meeting by meeting."
Persons: America —, Jerome Powell, , Powell, Frances Donald, Dow, CNBC's Fred Imbert, that'd Organizations: CNBC, Reserve, CNBC Pro, Wall, Revenue, Reality Labs, Dow Jones, CAC, Federal, Manulife Investment Management, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: America
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. However, Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to a subsequent rate hike, saying the central bank will make decisions "meeting by meeting." At his post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell, in other words, deftly negotiated expectations from market bulls and bears, and somehow managed to reaffirm the case of both camps. The "hawkish" part will please the bears, while the "hold" portion will appeal to the bulls.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Al Drago, Hong, Mukesh Ambani, Dow, that's, , Powell, Frances Donald, CNBC's Fred Imbert, that'd Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Market, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Federal, Dow Jones, Samsung Electronics, Wall, Revenue, Reality Labs, BlackRock, India BlackRock, Jio Financial Services, CNBC Pro, Manulife Investment Management, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: Washington , DC, Asia, Pacific, Indian
"We now believe that the Fed is on a prolonged 'hawkish hold,'" she said. "In our base case, their next move will likely be a cut but it will take until 2024 until we see it. That said, Powell will have no choice but to keep the threat of hikes alive, lest he encourage markets to prematurely price in cuts and re-ignite inflation expectations." "Indeed, throughout this coming extended pause, the risk to our base case will likely almost always be for one last hike to cement the disinflationary trend," she added. — Tanaya Macheel
Persons: Frances Donald, Powell Organizations: Fed, Manulife Investment Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. economy headed toward growth slowdown, says Manulife's Frances DonaldChris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities head of equity strategy, and Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management chief economist and strategist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the case for a recession in the back half of this year, and the rationale behind the Fed's pause.
Persons: Manulife's Frances Donald Chris Harvey, Frances Donald Organizations: U.S, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Manulife Investment Management Locations: Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey and Manulife's Frances DonaldChris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities head of equity strategy, and Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management chief economist and strategist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the case for a recession in the back half of this year, and the rationale behind the Fed's pause.
Persons: Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey, Manulife's Frances Donald Chris Harvey, Frances Donald Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Manulife Investment Management Locations: Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harris Financial Group's Jamie Cox and Manulife's Frances DonaldJamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, and Frances Donald, chief economist and strategist at Manulife Investment Management, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the accumulating effect of interest rate policy, indicators of a recession, and the rise in jobless claims.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNearly every data indicator suggests an impending recession, says Manulife's Jamie CoxJamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, and Frances Donald, chief economist and strategist at Manulife Investment Management, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the accumulating effect of interest rate policy, indicators of a recession, and the rise in jobless claims.
LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Central banks juggling inflation and financial stability mandates are prompting the wildest swings in bedrock government bonds for over a decade and a surge in volatility that may end up causing problems of its own. "The Fed and other central bankers have lost the luxury of focusing singularly on the fight against inflation," said Manulife Investment Management's Frances Donald. If the history of banking crashes and related credit crunches show them to be deflationary anyway, then many argue a central bank pause now may be the wisest choice. "The Fed is now fighting inflation as well as potential financial contagion," Lombard Odier Chief Investment Officer Stéphane Monier said. The first sign of regional bank stock calm on Tuesday, alongside the sticky core inflation readings for February, prompted a build-back of some bets for one last hike from each central bank.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will not be cutting in the next 6-months, says Manulife Investment Management's Frances DonaldFrances Donald, chief economist and strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss consumer spending, rising credit card debt levels and cut backs on consumer loans as excess savings dwindle.
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