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Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley said there was a strong case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the United States. Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley said there was a strong case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the United States. "I think there's a strong case for 50, whether they're going to do it or not," he said at the Bretton Woods Committee's annual Future of Finance Forum in Singapore. He said rates were currently 150-200 basis points above the so-called neutral rate for the U.S. economy, where policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative. Dudley had previously called for the Fed to begin cutting in July.
Persons: Bill Dudley, Dudley Organizations: New York Federal, Former New York Federal, Bretton Woods, of Finance Forum, Fed Locations: United States, Singapore, U.S, Asia
But you're going to struggle if you're looking for a new one. "Even a few months ago, the labor market seemed fine, the trajectory looked stable," said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a think tank. The Fed therefore believes it can put a floor underneath the labor market that prevents it from deteriorating further, Berger said. "What we need to see is strong private-sector labor market growth, and outside of health care, what we've seen instead is a very, very rapid deceleration that has shown no signs yet of stabilizing," Pollak said. Pollak also said leisure and hospitality jobs — a key entry point into the labor market — have actually declined outright in recent months, putting further pressure on workers to secure employment.
Persons: Guy Berger, Berger, Jerome Powell, Bill Dudley, Julia Pollak, Pollak, we've Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Glass, Federal, Fed, New York Federal, Bloomberg Locations: U.S, haves
"Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk," the former New York Federal Reserve President said. But to Dudley, even this is too late, and central bankers would do better to pivot rates at next week's policy meeting. AdvertisementAccording to Dudley, this slowdown points to fewer jobs down the road, and an uptick in unemployment could set off a near-certain recession indicator: the Sahm Rule. Despite this, Dudley suggested that the Fed might not be as concerned about breaching the Sahm Rule as it should be. According to Dudley, there are two other reasons the Fed may be waiting for September to cut rates.
Persons: , Bill Dudley, dawdling, Dudley, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, New York Federal, Business, Fed Locations: Dudley
Related VideoIn his opening statement at the trial, Biden's lawyer Abbe Lowell urged jurors in the Wilmington, Delaware, federal court to acquit his client. "They know how to put on a tight gun case." Biden's trial was not necessarily a lost cause. Hunter Biden's lawyers have argued this arrangement has perversely allowed Weiss to politicize the proceedings unchecked. This story was updated following the jury verdict in Hunter Biden's gun trial.
Persons: , Hunter Biden, Biden, Abbe Lowell, Prosecutors, Sarah Krissoff, didn't, Maryellen Noreika, Donald Trump, Lowell, Jared Kushner, Sen, Robert Menendez, John Edwards —, Joe Biden, ROBERTO SCHMIDT, David Weiss, General Merrick Garland, Weiss, Hunter Biden's, Noreika, Trump, Republicans gloated, Hallie Biden, Cozen O'Connor, Duncan Levin, Levin, He's, Krissoff, Evelyn Hockstein, Neama Rahmani, Rahmani Organizations: Service, Business, Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, Explosives, AFP, Getty, Trump, Justice, Republicans, Biden's, US, BI, Republican, U.S, U.S . Department of Justice, Hill, REUTERS, Justice Department, West, Creative Locations: Wilmington , Delaware, Manhattan, Delaware, California, New York, Texas
"They know how to put on a tight gun case." Biden's trial is not necessarily a lost cause. This arrangement has perversely allowed Weiss to politicize the proceedings unchecked, Hunter Biden's lawyers argued. There's no evidence that Biden even loaded or used the gun before his brother's widow, Hallie Biden, threw it out. "Obviously, the conduct that the government ought to be addressing is whether somebody is on drugs and high while they're shooting a gun," Levin said.
Persons: , Hunter Biden, Abbe Lowell, Prosecutors, Biden, Sarah Krissoff, didn't, Maryellen Noreika, Donald Trump, Lowell, Jared Kushner, Sens, Robert Menendez, John Edwards —, Joe Biden, ROBERTO SCHMIDT, David Weiss, General Merrick Garland, Weiss, Hunter, Noreika, Trump, Republicans gloated, Hallie Biden, Cozen O'Connor, Hunter Biden's, Duncan Levin, Levin, He's, Krissoff, Evelyn Hockstein, Neama Rahmani, Rahmani, there's Organizations: Service, Business, Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, Explosives, AFP, Getty, Republicans, US Justice Department, Republican, U.S, U.S . Department of Justice, Hill, REUTERS, Justice Department, West, Creative Locations: Wilmington , Delaware, Manhattan, Delaware, California, New York, Texas
Sam Bankman-Fried bilked FTX customers out of over $8 billion, according to prosecutors. AdvertisementAccording to federal prosecutors, Sam Bankman-Fried orchestrated one of the biggest criminal frauds in the history of the world. According to his lawyers, FTX's customers might get all their money back. According to prosecutors, Bankman-Fried was responsible for more than $11 billion in fraud overall between FTX customers and investors in FTX and Alameda Research. The recovered calculations, too, distort how much money customers are actually getting back.
Persons: Sam Bankman, , Fried, FTX, John J, Ray III, Ray, Lewis Kaplan, Kaplan, Sarah Krissoff, Cozen O'Connor, Krissoff, it's, Sarah Silbiger, Bankman, bitcoin, Rachel Maimin, Lowenstein Sandler, Barbara Fried, Mark Cohen, Jane Rosenberg Bankman, Maiman, Maimin, Caroline Ellison Organizations: Service, FTX, Bankman, Alameda Research, US, United States, Second Circuit, U.S . House Financial, Capitol, Reuters, K5 Global, Prosecutors, Wall, REUTERS, Business, of Prisons, Alemda Research Locations: FTX, Manhattan, New Jersey, New York, Washington , U.S
CNN —Hunter Biden won’t be returning to the spotlight next week as the House Oversight Committee had hoped. The problem with the Hunter Biden investigation, though, is not its potential reliance on the word of a compromised informant. And in that sense, Hunter Biden shares something in common with an unlikely person: Trump, at least with respect to his criminal case in New York. Much like the gun charge against Hunter Biden, the tax indictment has left many former federal white-collar prosecutors like me scratching their heads. That doesn’t mean that Trump or Hunter Biden are innocent; indeed, the former has more serious cases to contend with.
Persons: Andrey Spektor, Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner, CNN — Hunter Biden won’t, James Comer’s, Joe Biden, Andrey Spektor Bryan Cave Leighton, Hunter, Alexander Smirnov, Biden, you’ve, Smirnov, Hunter Biden, , Donald Trump –, that’s, Trump, Hunter Biden’s Organizations: CNN, Republicans, Biden, Republican, Department of Justice Tax, IRS, DOJ’s Locations: New York
"This is all a bit of a mess," Krishna Guha, vice chair of ISI Evercore and a former New York Federal Reserve official, wrote ahead of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that has veered from a dead-certain jump in interest rates two weeks ago to a speculative morass. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note - particularly sensitive to Fed policy expectations - rose steadily through the day, adding roughly a quarter of a point from the overnight low and approaching 4%. Analysts trying to parse what recent bank stress might mean said a coming credit contraction could be the equivalent of an additional quarter point Fed rate increase, or as much as a recession-inducing 1.5 percentage points, rendering further rate hikes obsolete. "The emergence of financial stress is likely to indicate to the committee that monetary policy is closer to being 'sufficiently restrictive' than some may have thought previously," BOA economists wrote. "At the very least, stress in financial markets suggests that the Fed should proceed with caution."
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the economic pain this rapid tightening regime may cause. A larger hike is possible, but unlikelySome economists even expect the Fed to implement a massive — and historic — full-point rate hike on Wednesday. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. They want higher bond yields,” former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley told CNN back in May. The Federal Reserve announces its rate hike decision Wednesday at 2 p.m.
Markets plummeted as the report stoked fears that the central bank and Chair Jerome Powell would decide to hike rates more aggressively, inflicting serious economic pain. Investors are putting the odds of a three-quarter percentage point hike next week at 75%, according to CME FedWatch data. The odds for a full point hike are hovering around 25% in the wake of the inflation report, up from 0% one week ago. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. “I wouldn’t discount a 100 basis point rate hike,” Marvin Loh, senior strategist at State Street, told me.
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