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☆ China's economy may not overtake the US, but a Trump presidency would still help Beijing: former IMF official
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewChina is taking steps to support its economy and stock markets, but there are limits to what can be achieved, said economist Eswar Prasad. Stock markets in China and Hong Kong have accelerated losses into 2024 after shedding trillions of dollars since 2021. "The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining," Prasad added to Nikkei. This is because Trump is likely to ratchet up trade protectionism, causing fragmentation in the trade and financial sectors, Prasad told Nikkei.

Persons: —, Eswar Prasad, Prasad, China hasn't, Trump, Prasad doesn't, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Cornell University, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, Business, Stock, Reuters Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Asia

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva did not mention the new conflict at opening events. The inability to respond extended to chair's statements issued by the Group of 20 major economies and the IMF and World Bank steering committees, which failed to mention the conflict. "You know, without peace, it's hard for people to get stability, growth, look after their children, get jobs," he said. But conflicts remain the biggest challenge to the global economy, said Josh Lipsky, a former IMF official who directs the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center. "Geopolitical shocks are economic shocks now and economic shocks are geopolitical shocks - and they're trying to detach the two."

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, that's, Rachel Nadelman, Joe Biden, China's Xi, Ajay Banga, Josh Lipsky, Andrea Shalal, David Lawder, Giles Elgood Organizations: Global, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, IMF, West Bank, Reuters, Research Center, Group, GeoEconomics, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, United States, China, Bali, Africa

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.

The Group of 20 major economies did reach consensus on an official communique but omitted any mention of the Israel-Hamas war. Senior World Bank Group officials were more pointed in a statement to staff, saying they were "shocked and appalled by the unprecedented escalation of violence in Israel and Gaza." "We condemn terrorism in all forms, including the abhorrent targeting of innocent civilians and kidnapping," the leaders of the World Bank, the International Finance Corp and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, said in an internal statement seen by Reuters. "Geopolitical shocks are economic shocks now and economic shocks are geopolitical shocks - and they're trying to detach the two." Reporting by Andrea Shalal and David Lawder; Editing by Giles Elgood and Stephen CoatesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, that's, Rachel Nadelman, Joe Biden, China's Xi, Ajay Banga, Josh Lipsky, Andrea Shalal, David Lawder, Giles Elgood, Stephen Coates Organizations: Global, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, IMF, West Bank, Reuters, Research Center, U.S, Treasury, Bank Group, International Finance Corp, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, GeoEconomics, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, United States, China, Africa

☆ US faces pushback on plan to bolster IMF funding without shareholding changes
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. Doing so, Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara said on Thursday, would "increase the voice and agency of member countries who are the most vulnerable" at the Fund. Martin Muhleisen, a former IMF strategy chief, said the plan "puts the Chinese on the spot to agree". A delay would be a major disappointment for the IMF after contentious 2019 negotiations left quota resources and shareholding untouched. "The Fund's not tight," said Mark Plant, a former IMF official now with the Center for Global Development.

Persons: Yuri Gripas, Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, Alassane Ouattara, Mark Sobel, Martin Muhleisen, Mark Plant, David Lawder, Andrea Shalal, Marcela Ayres, Peter Graff Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Rights, International Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, Reuters, U.S . Congress, U.S, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Brazilian, Center for Global Development, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, China, India, Brazil, Marrakech, Morocco, Ukraine, Saharan Africa, Coast, Washington, Beijing, Brasilia

☆ Dollarization would eliminate Argentina's future inflation risk, former IMF board member says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Dollarization would end inflation risks in Argentina, said former IMF board member Mark Rosen. It wouldn't necessarily deal with the spending issue, but it would anchor monetary policy, and be a big positive change." But critics of Argentina's dollarization idea have previously pointed out that it would be handicapped by the shortage. But not every IMF official shares his take. Though the lender has not officially weighed in on dollarization, Argentina's economic situation does matter to it.

Persons: Mark Rosen, Javier Milei, Francisco Zalles, Argentina's, Rosen, Alejandro Werner Organizations: IMF, Bloomberg, Argentine, Service, International Monetary Fund, Ecuador dollarize, Advection Growth Locations: Argentina, Wall, Silicon, Buenos Aires, Ecuador, America, dollarization

☆ The US needs to get its ballooning debt problems under control to keep the dollar dominant, former IMF official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar's dominance is being threatening by growing debt in the US, economist Barry Eichengreen said. High debt caused the downfall of the British sterling as a global currency in the early 1900s, scholars say. Mounting debt was responsible for the British sterling's downfall as the world's top currency in the early 1900s, Eichengreen said. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Thus, whether the dollar retains its global role will depend not simply on US relations with Russia, China, or the BRICS. But a weaker dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing, as US companies with business overseas can be hurt if the dollar is too strong against local currencies.

Persons: Barry Eichengreen, Eichengreen, there's Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Syndicate, UC Berkeley, Congressional, Office Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Russia

☆ Factbox: Developing countries in the grip of debt problems
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

In June, it clinched a $6.3 billion debt rework deal with the "Paris Club" creditor nations and its other big bilateral lender China. Another part of the domestic debt plan has faced delays, though, with a key deadline on a Treasury bond exchange delayed three times and now set for Sept. 11. Failure to complete the domestic debt overhaul by then could result in delays both in terms of IMF disbursements and talks with creditors. The government recently agreed to tackle roughly $4 billion of its domestic debt via a pension fund debt swap operation and a dollar-denominated bonds exchange. Cairo has a $3 billion IMF programme and has devalued the pound by roughly 50% since February 2022.

Persons: Adnan Abidi, Nandalal Weerasinghe, Kais Saied, Nayib Bukele, William Ruto's, Donald Trump, Libby George, Marc Jones, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, China, SRI, SRI LANKA Sri, Sri Lanka Development, Sri, Monetary Fund, IMF, UAE, Observers, European Union, SALVADOR, World Bank, African Development Bank, Presidential, Republican, Thomson Locations: New Delhi, India, Delhi, ZAMBIA Zambia, SRI LANKA, SRI LANKA Sri Lanka, China, GHANA Ghana, Zambia, Ghana, PAKISTAN Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, TUNISIA, North, Tunisia, EGYPT Egypt, Cairo, Salvador, KENYA, Kenya, UKRAINE Ukraine, Ukraine, Russia, LEBANON Lebanon

That sobering view of a post-pandemic global economy emerged from research organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve and debated here this past weekend. "This puts us in a bleak setting, thinking about the parts of the world that are labor rich but capital poor," he said. "I do remember a time, maybe a more naive time...when more trade would create friends," said Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England. If there was a potential bright spot, it was around the discussion of advances in artificial intelligence as a possible driver of higher productivity. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: JACKSON, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld, Barry Eichengreen, Eswar Prasad, Donald Trump, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Bernstein, Ben Broadbent, Ngozi Okonjo, Iweala, Trump, Nela Richardson, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Kansas City Federal Reserve, U.S, Monetary Fund, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Cornell University, U.S . White House Council, Economic, Biden, Bank of England, Trade Organization, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Ukraine, China, West, Washington . China, U.S, Berkeley, Japan, Nigeria, Russian, Europe

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Harvard economics professor Ken Rogoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harvard economics professor Ken RogoffKen Rogoff, Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss China's economic crisis, why the 'debt supercycle' that came for the U.S. and Europe after the 2008 financial crisis could be knocking on China's door as it grapples with a brewing property crisis and growth slowdown, and more.

Persons: Ken Rogoff Ken Rogoff Organizations: Harvard, U.S Locations: Harvard, Europe

☆ China's growth model is no longer going to deliver high growth, says Harvard's Ken Rogoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's growth model is no longer going to deliver high growth, says Harvard's Ken RogoffKen Rogoff, Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss China's economic crisis, why the 'debt supercycle' that came for the U.S. and Europe after the 2008 financial crisis could be knocking on China's door as it grapples with a brewing property crisis and growth slowdown, and more.

Persons: Ken Rogoff Ken Rogoff Organizations: U.S Locations: Harvard, Europe

☆ Why New York AG Letitia James is probably Trump's biggest worry right now (not Jack Smith, Fani Willis or Alvin Bragg)
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( Laura Italiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

In three months, Trump faces a civil fraud trial that could run his Trump Organization out of New York. There's Jack, and Fani, and Alvin, of course, all poised to prosecute the former president criminally. And Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Eric Trump would further be banned from ever running a business anywhere in the state. The financial and psychic toll to being a mogul in exile would be great, two Trump biographers told Insider. Smith appears on the brink of winning a new indictment, relating to the 2020 election, as does District Attorney Fani Willis in Atlanta.

Persons: Trump, Donald Trump's, There's Jack, Alvin, there's, —, Letitia James —, James, Donald Trump, Donald Trump , Jr, Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump, crowing, Michael D'Antonio, he's, D'Antonio, Alvin Bragg's, Jack Smith's Mar, Smith, Fani Willis, Chris Christie, David Aaron, Aaron, Perkins Coie, Aileen Cannon, Ira Judelson, Dominique Strauss, Kahn, Arthur Engoron, New York —, Nobody, Gwen Blair, Blair, he'll Organizations: Trump Organization, Service, — New York, Trump, New, Republican, Manhattan, Mar Locations: New York, Manhattan, Wall, Silicon, New Yorker, Florida, Atlanta, New Jersey, Washington, DC, Mar, Delaware, Trump Org's, York, Queens, Emerald City, Miami, Bedminster , New Jersey, New York City

Rising tensions between Washington and President Nayib Bukele's government, dwindling prospects of a financing deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the fallout from bitcoin becoming legal tender against a wider difficult macro backdrop had seen El Salvador bonds drop to a quarter of face value last July. "In the summer of 2022, El Salvador bond prices were divorced from fundamentals," said Aaron Stern, managing partner and chief investment officer at Converium Capital in Toronto, who has been holding the country's bonds since last year. "The market was concerned about the administration's willingness to pay," he said, but even now El Salvador offers attractive value when compared to a number of better priced emerging market sovereigns. These were the best performing among sovereign bonds in the first half of the year, with total returns near 60%. "In a year where carry is the main driver of total returns, investors are going to be reticent to take profits too early," said BNP Paribas' Nathalie Marshik, a managing director for Latin America fixed income.

Persons: Nayib Bukele's, buybacks, Aaron Stern, Alejandro Werner, Bukele, there's, Shamaila Khan, Nathalie Marshik, Marshik, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, William Maclean Organizations: YORK, Central, International Monetary Fund, El, IMF, Converium Capital, Reuters, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Reuters Graphics JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: El Salvador, Central American, Washington, Toronto, it's, America

☆ French central bank head warns against raising ECB inflation target
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

AIX-EN-PROVENCE, France, July 9 (Reuters) - France's central bank head Francois Villeroy de Galhau pushed back on Sunday against a suggestion from some French economists to raise the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% inflation target. The aim is to bring inflation down to the 2% target by 2025, Villeroy said at an economics conference in the southern French city of Aix-en-Province. Former IMF chief economist, Frenchman Olivier Blanchard, has long called for a higher inflation target than the 2% shared by most major central banks, arguing that the increased flexibility that would provide would outweigh the costs. In response, Villeroy said that a higher inflation target was a "false good idea" and would lead to higher rather than lower borrowing costs. "If we announced our inflation target is no longer 2% but 3%, lenders would immediately demand higher interest rates, at least 1% (more)" in anticipation of higher inflation and uncertainty Villeroy said.

Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Villeroy, Frenchman Olivier Blanchard, Patrick Artus, Bruno Le Maire, Andrew Bailey, Leigh Thomas, William Schomberg, Elaine Hardcastle, Alexander Smith Organizations: Bank's, Former IMF, Veteran, French Finance, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: PROVENCE, France, French, Aix, Province, London

☆ Trump wants the $5 million he owes E. Jean Carroll held as cash, not as a bond, in a weird move that saves him just $55,000
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Laura Italiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Trump must set aside $5.55 million dollars for E. Jean Carroll while he appeals her successful defamation verdict. On Friday, he made the unusual move of asking the court to hold the money as cash, rather than as a bond. Surety experts say the move saves Trump the price of a bond premium: just $55,000. Trump attorney Joe Tacopina filed the request Friday with US District Court Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over the defamation and sexual assault trial. That amount could be nothing if Trump wins an outright reversal of the judgment, or less than $5 million if an appeals court reduces the judgment.

Persons: Trump, Jean Carroll, —, Donald Trump, E, It's, Mike Lapre, Lapre, Joe Tacopina, Lewis Kaplan, Tacopina, Carroll, Roberta Kaplan, Trump's, Ira Judelson, Judelson, Dominique Strauss, Kahn, Plaxico Burress, Conor McGregor, nix, he's Organizations: Trump, Service, NFP, NFL Locations: Manhattan, York City

☆ China is likely headed for a lost decade and won't 'eat our economic lunch,' former IMF official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy is stumbling and is likely headed for a lost decade similar to Japan's. That's according to former IMF official Desmond Lachman, who said China may no longer be the world's growth driver. But a lost decade also means "we no longer need to worry that China will eat our economic lunch." "One silver lining of a likely lost Chinese economic decade is that we no longer need to worry that China will eat our economic lunch," Lachman added. "As occurred with the supposed Japanese economic miracle in the 1980s before it, we will find that the Chinese economy had clay feet."

Persons: Desmond Lachman, —, Lachman Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, American Enterprise Institute, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Japan, Barron's

☆ Foreign investors have been dumping vast amounts of Chinese assets, and putting money there will only get riskier
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Foreign investors have been selling Chinese securities for the last two years, the Atlantic Council said. "Putting money in China is going to become riskier, and de-risking is only going to become more commonplace." Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Separate reports have also shown that foreign investors are selling Chinese stocks at a faster pace. Mark acknowledged Chinese efforts to bring back some overseas investment, but foreign capital flows are set to keep declining, especially with new US restrictions on the horizon.

Persons: Xi, —, Jeremy Mark, Mark, bode, Biden Organizations: Atlantic Council, Service, Geoeconomics, IMF Locations: China, New York, Hong Kong, India

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Harvard professor Ken Rogoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harvard professor Ken RogoffHarvard professor and former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest in debt ceiling negotiations, why a last minute deal does not solve the underlying political problem, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Ken Rogoff

☆ Harvard professor Ken Rogoff: I think real interest rates are going to stay high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHarvard professor Ken Rogoff: I think real interest rates are going to stay highHarvard professor and former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest in debt ceiling negotiations, why a last minute deal does not solve the underlying political problem, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Ken Rogoff Organizations: Harvard

☆ A debt-ceiling deal may be close but the crisis likely isn't solved for good. Here's what would happen if the US actually defaulted on its debt.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Treasury market remains intact in this scenario? JL: The broader US economy will suffer, the stock market will suffer, there will be higher unemployment. So just because the Treasury market ends up doing fine does not mean good news for the US economy. If you think the stock market isn't signaling there's a recession looming, David Rosenberg says otherwise. The AI hype gripping the stock market will resemble a mini dot-com bubble, according to UBS's Art Cashin.

☆ Former IMF chief economist on why the current banking crisis is unlike the 2008 meltdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer IMF chief economist on why the current banking crisis is unlike the 2008 meltdownSimon Johnson, MIT professor and former IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the banking crisis, why it's inappropriate to compare it to the 2008 meltdown, and what lessons can be drawn from the current turnmoil.

☆ A former IMF official says it's 'very likely' US home prices fall 15-20% as a credit crunch creates a lose-lose scenario for the housing sector and the debt ceiling standoff threatens a substantial re
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A credit crunch, an already-slowing economy, and the debt-ceiling standoff risk a downturn. If these smaller institutions are loaning out less money, this further hurts demand in the housing market, meaning home prices have to fall accordingly. On the other hand, a credit crunch puts the US economy at significant risk of a recession, Lachman said. "Housing gets hit by tighter credit conditions, but then it also gets hit if the economy goes into recession." KPMG's Yelena Maleyev believes prices could fall as much as 20%, while Interactive Brokers' José Torres sees 15% downside.

WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - Just a month after the biggest banking crisis in more than a decade, the world's top economic and financial policymakers gathered in Washington and said surprisingly little about financial system stability - at least publicly. Some officials conveyed a sense that banking system safety was further down the priority list of global economic problems. "But it's still something where we need to stay vigilant and address potential risks which may emerge in our financial system," Dombrovskis told reporters. He added that the European Union's banking system was stable, well capitalized with ample liquidity. But during the IMFC's closed meeting, the possible spillovers from financial stability risks were a main topic, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko told Reuters.

☆ China's 'Belt and Road' grew out of a lending spree. Now those loans may be its problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAt its peak, China's Belt and Road Initiative was seen as the centerpiece of Beijing's engagement with the world. According to the report, China issued 128 emergency rescue loans worth $240 billion to 22 countries — including Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Turkey, among others. 'Trying to salvage Belt and Road'Chinese efforts to revamp Belt and Road have been underway since 2020, according to one observer. "A nod to the concern that many Belt and Road projects were not economically viable to begin with. "The increased indebtedness in many Belt and Road countries is a direct consequence of Beijing's overshooting in the pre-2020 phase," said Zhong.

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