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How the world got into $315 trillion of debt
  + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( Nessa Anwar | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
In 2024, global gross domestic product — or GDP — amounted to $109.5 trillion dollars — slightly over a third of that global debt number. So, with global debt at a record high, should you be concerned? The first debt wave originated from Latin America in the 1980s, which led 16 countries in that region to restructure their borrowings. Global debt rose to 256 percent of GDP in 2020, a 28-percentage point increase - and the biggest one-year debt rise since the Second World War. The fourth wave has been the biggest, fastest and most wide-ranging rise in debt we've seen since World War II.
Persons: we've Organizations: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, United Locations: Prussian, Civil, United States, America, Asia, U.S, Europe, Zambia, Japan, China, India, Mexico
Dollar firm ahead of global inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-05-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar made a steady start to the week, as investors were focused on U.S., European and Japanese inflation data to guide the global interest rate outlook. The euro , which gained 0.9% on the dollar last week, was in the middle of a range it has held for more than a year at $1.0846. German inflation on Wednesday and euro zone readings on Friday will be watched for confirmation of a European rate cut that traders have priced for next week. The dollar had fallen back after data showed a slowdown in consumer price rises in April and disappointing retail sales, before strengthening last week thanks to better-than-expected PMI survey data. China's yuan finished last week weaker than 7.24 per dollar, its lowest level since early May.
Persons: Sterling, Bob Savage, BNY, China's, Scott Gold, would've, Justin D'Anethan Organizations: New, U.S, Federal, Swiss, Tokyo CPI Locations: Britain, United States, U.S, Asia, New York
A youth walks past the entrance of the Reserve Bank of India head office in Mumbai on Nov. 17, 2021. The board of India's central bank approved a record surplus transfer of 2.11 trillion rupees ($25.35 billion) to the government for the fiscal year ended March, sharply above analysts' and government projections. The government had budgeted a dividend of 1.02 trillion rupees from the Reserve Bank of India, state-run banks and other financial institutions, interim budget estimates for the fiscal year 2024/25 show. The RBI board also decided to raise the contingency risk buffer (CRB) to 6.5% from 6% previously. Analysts had expected a surplus transfer in the range of 750 billion rupees to 1.2 trillion rupees, aided by strong foreign exchange earnings.
Persons: Garima Kapoor Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Elara Locations: Mumbai, India's
Practically no one is phasing out the dollar for trade or foreign reserves, he said. No one is dumping dollars," Christian said of de-dollarization in a recent presentation. Its closest competitor, the euro, accounted for just 19% of all central bank reserves in 2022, down from around 29% several decades ago. Advertisement"There has been a diversification of central bank foreign exchange holdings, but it's not at the expense of the dollar, and it's not away from the dollar," Christian said. "Clearly people are buying dollars in a much greater volume than they are selling dollars," Christian said.
Persons: Jeffrey Christian, , Christian, it's, Chris Wallace, Wallace Organizations: CPM, Service, Bank of International Settlements, Monetary Fund, Federal Locations: Russia, China
There's one major thing the West could, but won't, do: kill all Russian banks' access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT. 'Russia's economy is in deep, deep trouble'Despite the West's frustration with how Russia's economy still appears to be holding up, the sanctions appear to be finally working. "In five years, you're going see a really disastrous slowdown in the Russian economy," said Portes, who called for stronger sanctions enforcement. AdvertisementIn April 2022, Russia's central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Russia's reserves can't last forever. "A significant problem is that they are running out of foreign exchange reserves, and you can't create foreign reserves," Portes added.
Persons: , hasn't, SWIFT, Alex Capri, Richard Portes, Portes, Alexander Kolyandr, Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's Organizations: Service, West, Society, Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, Business, SWIFT, European Union, National University of Singapore, US Customs Service, London Business School, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Central Bank of Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, SWIFT, Capri, Asia Pacific, Europe, India, China, Central Bank of Russia, Russia's
Two U.S.-listed ETFs — the SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF and VanEck Steel ETF — and the Japan-listed NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 ETF have each risen more than 10% every year since 2019. SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF The SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF (ticker: XME) gives investors broad exposure to the metals and mining segment. The VanEck fund has outperformed the S & P 500 in four of the past five years. NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 The NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 ETF (ticker: 2068.T-JP) is a smart beta ETF. High beta stocks react with more volatility than the rest of the market.
Persons: SPDR, It's Organizations: CNBC, P Metals, Mining, VanEck Steel, , Japan, CNBC Pro, Mining ETF, VanEck, NEXT, Nomura Japan Equity Locations: U.S, Japan
Central banks accounted for one-quarter of gold demand in 2022 and 2023, as the institutions bought over 1,000 tons of gold each year, according to the World Gold Council in a recent report. Related storiesThe world's central banks continued buying gold, snapping up 290 tons of gold in the first quarter of this year — the strongest start to any year on record, according to the council. AdvertisementThis suggests that gold purchases by some central banks may have been driven by concerns about sanctions risk, Gopinath said. Central banks will keep buying, despite high pricesWhile China's central bank gold buying has been hogging the headlines, other central banks are also loading up on gold. The World Gold Council wrote in its recent report that other big gold buyers included Turkey and India.
Persons: , Gita Gopinath, it's, Gopinath, IMF's Gopinath Organizations: Service, Monetary Fund, Business, World Gold, US Treasury, Agency, JPMorgan Locations: Ukraine, Central, Russia, China, Turkey, India
CNBC's Jim Cramer likes Costco stock despite its high valuation and suggests it has more room to run. "I feel very comfortable" about Costco, Cramer said Thursday on " Squawk on the Street ," after the wholesale retailer reported a solid April sales report. Costco shares rose nearly 1.5% after Wednesday evening's monthly sales report showed core comparable sales, which exclude gas and foreign exchange fluctuations, gained 5.5% last month. Goldman Sachs analysts increased its Costco price target to $840 from $830 and also maintained its buy rating. The Club currently has a 2 rating on Costco shares and a price target of $800.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, FactSet, Wells Fargo, , Costco's, we're, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Costco, CNBC, Wells, Street, JPMorgan
Astronomic inflation in Argentina has caused the government to higher denominations of the country's peso. The central bank next month will issue a 10,000 peso note, worth about $11 based on Thursday's exchange rate. AdvertisementInflation is so bad in Argentina that the central bank will issue 10,000 peso notes to relieve people from the burden of having to haul bags of cash around for day-to-day needs. The note, worth about $11 based on Thursday exchange rates, tops the 2,000 peso note as the country's biggest bill. Meanwhile, the central bank also announced that it will launch a larger bill — a 20,000-peso note — later this year.
Persons: , Javier Milei Organizations: Service, Associated Press Locations: Argentina
Bank of America boosted Amazon's price target after earnings to $210, eyeing 17% upside from Wednesday's price levels. Amazon's Q2 guidance slightly fell short of Wall Street's expectations, but Bofa still sees upside ahead. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAmazon stock could soar as its latest earnings herald a "new era" of profits for the tech behemoth, according to Bank of America. On the guidance front, Amazon expects Q2 net sales to range between $144.0 billion and $149.0 billion, 2.5% below the estimated $150.21 billion.
Persons: Bofa, , Justin Post, BofA Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America . Bank of America, Amazon
The yen held its line against the dollar on Tuesday after making sharp gains the previous day in moves that traders said were sparked by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. "There is clearly a possibility that the sharp and sudden lifts in the JPY were sparked by intervention. Official figures that would reveal whether intervention did in fact occur won't be available until late May. The Japanese currency still sits lower than it was before the Bank of Japan's policy announcement last week. The Fed is expected to strike a hawkish message, meaning more yen selling is likely, CBA's Kong said.
Persons: haven't, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, bode, CBA's Kong, pare, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Trading, Markets, Bank of, Fed, Traders, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Tokyo, Asia, Japan, U.S, Bank of England
Maserati's first GranCabrio convertible since 2019 is scheduled to go on sale this summer in the U.S. Global automaker Stellantis on Tuesday reported a 12% decline in revenue in the first quarter, citing lower sales and foreign exchange effects, even as net pricing held firm. Chief Financial Officer Natalie Knight said year-over-year shipment and net revenue comparisons were difficult due to the company's transition to a "next generation product portfolio manufactured on new platforms." This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.
Persons: Maserati's, Natalie Knight Organizations: U.S . Global, Stellantis Locations: U.S
Eli Lilly also hiked its full-year guidance for adjusted earnings and revenue, topping analysts' expectations. 3M – Shares advanced 7.7% after the maker of industrial products posted earnings of $2.39 per share on revenues of $7.72 billion. First-quarter revenue at the Netherlands-based automaker slid 12% due to lower sales plus foreign exchange effects, even as net pricing remained strong. HSBC — HSBC, Europe's largest bank by assets, added 4.2% after the firm beat first-quarter earnings expectations and announced the departure of its Group Chief Executive Officer, Noel Quinn. PayPal saw first-quarter revenue of $7.7 billion, topping analysts' $7.51 billion consensus estimate, according to LSEG.
Persons: Eli Lilly —, Eli Lilly, Meanwehile, Goldman Sachs, Coke, Tesla, Noel Quinn, Yun Li, Jesse Pound, Michelle Fox Theobald Organizations: Chrysler, HSBC — HSBC, GE Healthcare Technologies, GE, PayPal Locations: Chicago, Netherlands, Atlanta, China
The Argentine peso has jumped 25% in three months against the dollar in one key exchange market. AdvertisementArgentina's President Javier Milei still hasn't dollarized the economy as promised, but he has managed to do something that's possibly more shocking: strengthen the peso. This currency has been one of 2023's most devalued tenders, and yet it's now become the top currency against the dollar. In the past three months, the peso has surged 25% in the blue-chip swap market, one of Argentina's key foreign exchanges. It's also ironic that Milei has come to lead the peso out of tougher times, given his loud disdain for the currency last year.
Persons: Javier Milei's, , Javier Milei, he's, It's, Milei Organizations: Argentine, Service, Bloomberg, Financial Times Locations: It's, Argentine, greenbacks
Merck on Thursday reported first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that topped expectations as it posted strong sales of its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda and vaccine products. The pharmaceutical giant also raised and narrowed its full-year revenue and adjusted earnings forecasts. Merck now expects 2024 sales to come in between $63.1 billion and $64.3 billion, up from previous guidance of $62.7 to $64.2 billion. That outlook includes a one-time charge of roughly 26 cents per share related to Merck's acquisition of Harpoon Therapeutics in January. Merck raked in $15.78 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 9% from the same period a year ago.
Persons: Merck Organizations: Merck, Harpoon Therapeutics, LSEG Locations: Rahway , New Jersey, U.S
However, first-quarter earnings and revenue both came above analysts' estimates. Honeywell — The industrial stock rose 2.2% in premarket trading after the company posted earnings per share of $2.25, beating LSEG analysts' estimates of $2.17. Revenue for the quarter came in at $9.11 billion, compared to the $9.03 billion analysts were expecting. Analysts surveyed by LSEG forecast $1.88 in earnings per share and $15.20 billion in revenue. ServiceNow — The workflow management company shed 4% after narrowly beating analysts' revenue expectations in the first quarter.
Persons: Merck, LSEG, ServiceNow, , Macheel, Samantha Subin, Jesse Pound, Pia Singh, Alex Harring Organizations: Facebook, Honeywell, Merck, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, LSEG, StreetAccount, IBM, Caterpillar, Deutsche Bank — U.S, Deutsche Bank, Comcast, Technology, Revenue, CNBC Locations: NBCUniversal
Bitcoin is set for more price gains later this year, even after a recent retreat in prices, according to Standard Chartered's top crypto analyst. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange research, West, and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a research note this week that he sees bitcoin rising to $150,000 per coin, and ether hitting $8,000 by the end of 2024 — doubling down on a bullish prediction from the bank earlier this year. Bitcoin temporarily sank below $60,000 last week as traders reacted to news of an escalating military conflict between Iran and Israel. Also, large long liquidations over the past couple of weeks mean that market positioning is a lot cleaner," Kendrick said. "As a result, with Middle East tensions easing I think it is time to re-engage in medium-term longs."
Persons: Geoffrey Kendrick, Kendrick, Bitcoin, bitcoin, That's Organizations: Standard Chartered, BTC, ETH, Securities and Exchange Commission, Treasury, HK Locations: Israel, Iran, United States, U.S
Ford Motor — The automobile stock rose 2% after posting a first-quarter adjusted earnings beat and raising its adjusted free cash flow outlook for 2024. On the other hand, Ford's first-quarter revenue came in below expectations. First-quarter revenue of $14.46 billion missed consensus estimates of $14.55 billion, LSEG said. Chipotle earned $13.37 per share, excluding items, outpacing the $11.68 per share LSEG estimate, as traffic to its restaurants was robust. United Rentals — The equipment rental company added 2.4% after posting a first-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue beat.
Persons: LSEG, Ford's, Ethan Allen, Ethan Allen's, Chipotle, Lam, ServiceNow, , Christina Cheddar, Berk, Darla Mercado, Scott Schnipper Organizations: Technology, Facebook, Meta, Ford, Machines, IBM, Whirlpool, Research, Lam Research, Revenue, Churchill, United Rentals
PepsiCo on Tuesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations, despite a recall of some Quaker Foods cereal and bars that dented U.S. volume. The company's organic revenue, which excludes acquisitions, divestitures and foreign exchange, increased 2.7% in the quarter. The company's food division saw its volume decrease 0.5%, while its beverage segment reported flat volume. The Quaker Foods recall dented Pepsi's organic volume by roughly 1%. For the full year, the company is expecting organic revenue will rise at least 4% and core constant currency earnings per share will climb at least 8%.
Organizations: Pepsi, Brooklyn borough New, PepsiCo, Quaker, LSEG, Gatorade, North, Quaker Food, Quaker Oats, Frito, Lay Locations: Flatbush, Brooklyn borough, Brooklyn borough New York City, Quaker, America, U.S, Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, China, Europe
Firm dollar drags yen down closer to intervention range
  + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. Traders have been keeping wary eye as yen slips towards 155.00, a level considered by many participants as the new trigger for intervention by Japanese authorities. The weak yen complicates the BOJ's policy path, with some market players betting the central bank could come under pressure to hike rates sooner than it wants to slow the currency's decline. Markets are currently pricing in a 46% chance of the Fed's first rate cut starting in September, with November not far behind at 42%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Carol Kong, Shunichi Suzuki, BoE, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Japan's Finance, Federal Reserve, Investors, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of England Locations: Japan, Iran, Israel, Tokyo, Japan's, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Kong
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg via Getty ImagesInvestors have been monitoring for potential intervention in the Japanese yen, but recent comments have triggered discussion about "coordinated intervention" with South Korea. The currency has struggled, slipping past 150, since the Bank of Japan raised rates in March. Following that volatility, the U.S. last week acknowledged Japan and South Korea's "serious concerns" over the recent sharp depreciation in their currencies. The comments spurred chatter about possible coordinated currency intervention. Brady said South Korea and Japan could amplify their individual messages to the market by coordinating policy, which might also enhance the short-term impact compared to unilateral action.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, James Brady, Brady Organizations: Korean, Woori, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S ., Bank of, South Korean, greenback, Authorities, Treasury, Bank of Japan Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Bank of Japan, U.S, Japan, South, Tokyo, Bank of Korea
For the full year, the overall sales growth rate was reiterated at 2% to 4% as was the organic growth target of 4% to 5%. On the call, Schulten said growth across categories continues to be broad-based with 8 of 10 product categories holding or growing organic sales in this quarter. In North America, organic sales rose 3% on the back of a 3% increase in volume. In Europe, focus markets rose 7% on the back of a 4% increase in volume, and in Latin America, organic sales were up 17% versus the year-ago period. Weakness continued in Greater China, with organic sales declining 10%.
Persons: Dow, Andre Schulten, Schulten, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Pantene, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Procter, Gamble, Procter & Gamble, Colgate, Palmolive, Unilever, Management, CNBC Locations: United States, American, North America, Europe, Latin America, Greater China, China, San Anselmo , California
It was under the tutelage of legendary investor Peter Lynch that Sullivan developed the edge that has served him in his career. The numbers Today, Sullivan manages the Putnam Investments Core Equity Fund (PMYYX) , a multicap fund with $4.4 billion in assets that he started in 2010. "The numbers are good," Sullivan said. Ultimately, Sullivan said he's learned a lot from other investors, noting the good stock pickers have had "pretty eclectic" approaches that helped them outperform the market over time. "And I found the good fortune over the decades to be around pretty good stock pickers, pretty good money managers."
Persons: Gerard Sullivan, Peter Lynch, Sullivan, Lynch, hadn't, , Arthur Yeager, PMYYX, Morningstar, It's, Yeager, Tesla, it's, that's, Rajesh Subramaniam, he's, I'm, That's Organizations: Fidelity, Columbia Business School, Magellan Fund, Putnam Investments, Equity, Pacific Gas & Electric, CMS Energy, Companies, Nvidia, FedEx Locations: Brooklyn, U.S, California, Michigan, Pinterest
Those are key items to watch out for Friday morning when P & G reports its fiscal 2024 third-quarter earnings. Shares of P & G hit a multiyear high of $163 on March 28 — less than $2 per share below all-time highs reached in late April 2022. Traditionally for Procter, pricing has contributed low single digits to its earnings growth. In P & G's fiscal second quarter , pricing contributed 4% to sales growth, but volumes were down on a companywide basis. He expects to see a healthy organic growth rate consistent with the 4% organic growth reported in the second quarter.
Persons: Jeff Marks, Jim Cramer, Nik Modi, Modi, Procter, Jon Anderson, William Blair, Anderson, Ulta, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: Procter, Gamble, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Fed, RBC Capital Markets, Anderson, China, National Exhibition, Convention Center, VCG, Getty Locations: U.S, North America, Shanghai, China
Dollar takes a breather as investors ponder U.S. rates outlook
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The yen strengthened 0.05% to 154.29 a dollar but remained close to the 34-year low of 154.79 touched on Tuesday. Japan last intervened in the currency market in 2022, spending an estimated $60 billion to defend the yen. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6439, while the New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.5914 after spiking 0.6% on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Michelle Bowman, Kristina Clifton, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Market Committee, Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, IG, Japan, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, South Korea, Tokyo, Seoul
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