Economists rang in the year debating whether the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate increases would steer the highflying U.S. economy into a hard or soft landing—forcing inflation down through either a painful recession or a gentler slowdown in growth. Surprising strength in hiring and consumer spending last month, together with signs that demand for autos and housing might be stabilizing after a decline, now have some economists pointing to a third scenario that seemed improbable just a few weeks ago: an economic growth upturn.

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