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Amid the economic turmoil of the pandemic, his government racked up Canada's highest ever deficit. Failing to curb spending now risks "the market dictating to you what you have to do with fiscal policy," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "I do think they have to trim the sails a bit," he added. "It's going to be easier to get inflation down if monetary and fiscal policy are rowing in the same direction," Macklem said. Fitch Ratings stripped Canada of its triple-A credit rating in June 2020, citing pandemic spending.

Persons: Justin Trudeau, Doug Porter, Chrystia Freeland, Katherine Cuplinskas, Trudeau, Macklem, Desjardins, Randall Bartlett, Simon Deeley, Robert Asselin, DBRS Morningstar, Julia Smith, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Josie Kao Organizations: OTTAWA, Trudeau's Liberal, BMO Capital Markets, Finance, International Monetary Fund, of Canada's, BoC, UK, RBC Dominion Securities Inc, New, Business Council of Canada, Fitch, Moody's Investors, Canada, Thomson Locations: Canada, FES, Germany, High, Ottawa, Toronto

The Canadian central bank had expected productivity, or output per hour worked, to improve as the economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, it has fallen in eleven of the last 12 quarters, taking it back to its 2016 level. It also stands to add to unit labor costs, a key measure of inflation pressures coming from higher wages. "Our own forecast is that productivity growth will turn around, but that is a risk to the outlook and if productivity growth continues declining it will make it more difficult to get inflation back to target," Macklem said. The central bank has forecast that inflation will return to its 2% target in the middle of 2025.

Persons: Macklem, Derek Holt, tightens, Holt, Dennis Darby, Doug Porter, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Deepa Babington Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters Graphics Reuters, BoC, Scotiabank, Federal Reserve, Canadian Manufacturers, Fraser Institute, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Canada, freefall, United States, Toronto, Ottawa

The central bank is worried that the Canadian economy is running too hot for inflation to return to its 2% target and that if it waits to act, inflation expectations could rise, making matters worse. The central bank lifted its benchmark rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% this month and is expected to tighten further in July or September. A hard landing for the economy, or a recession, could raise unemployment, something the BoC has been hoping to avoid. "I'm not going to be betting against interest rates and I'm not going to be betting against policy lags." The data has left analysts pushing back their forecasts of a slowdown to later in 2023 or in 2024 but accompanied by higher than anticipated interest rates.

Persons: Karl Schamotta, David Rosenberg, I'm, Royce Mendes, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Denny Thomas, Stephen Coates Organizations: TORONTO, Bank, Bank of Canada's, BoC, Bank of Canada, Rosenberg Research, Desjardins, Thomson Locations: United States, Data, Toronto, Ottawa

While a federal election is not due until 2025, housing affordability is among the top concerns for Canadians who have grappled with supply shortages. The Liberal Party government's ambitious plan to welcome 500,000 immigrants per year by 2025, or about 1.25% of its population, is expected to fuel robust demand for housing. In April 2022, the Liberal government announced plans to double housing construction over the next decade. It's been 8 years (since he took power), and now, housing costs have doubled," Poilievre said on Twitter earlier this month. Speaking with the heads of Canada's municipalities last week, Trudeau said the government's next "long term infrastructure" plan will be revealed this autumn.

Persons: Justin Trudeau, Randall Bartlett, Bartlett, Pierre Poilievre, Trudeau, Poilievre, Darrell Bricker, they're, Bricker, James Laird, Laird, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Marguerita Choy Organizations: TORONTO, Bank of Canada, Liberal Party, Desjardins, Liberal, Housing, Canada Mortgage, Housing Corporation, Canadian Home Builders ' Association, Reuters, Conservative Party, Twitter, Toronto Area, Public Affairs, Thomson Locations: Toronto, Ottawa

The central bank sets short-term interest rates but longer-term borrowing costs, such as for businesses and some mortgage rates, are determined by the bond market. Canadian bond yields, like U.S. bond yields, have tumbled since October as investors anticipate that the tightening cycle is nearing an end and the central bank is poised to shift to cutting rates next year. Bond yields, along with other measures, such as the strength of the stock market and the currency, help determine financial conditions, or the availability of funding in the economy. Since October, Canada's 5-year yield has tumbled nearly 100 basis points and the Toronto stock market (.GSPTSE) has rallied 11%. "Otherwise, we could be on an inflation and rates roller-coaster for years to come that is biased toward higher average inflation."

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