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☆ The Fed is 'playing with fire' by not cutting rates, says creator of 'Sahm Rule' recession indicator
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Claudia Sahm has shown that when the unemployment rate's three-month average is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, the economy is in recession. "My baseline is not recession," Sahm said. "The worst possible outcome at this point is for the Fed to cause an unnecessary recession," she added. That's the highest the Sahm reading has been on an ascending basis since the early days of the Covid pandemic. The value essentially represents the percentage point difference from the three-month unemployment rate average compared to its 12-month low, which in this case is 3.5%.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, I'm, Jerome Powell Organizations: Exchange, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Committee

☆ Housing inflation will need to come down before the Fed can think about cutting rates, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With shelter inflation "sticky" at a 5.4% year over level, Gapen said it could be months before "greater confidence" is achieved. "We think the Fed is unlikely to achieve the confidence it needs to begin rate cuts until shelter inflation takes a step lower," he said. Monthly housing inflation readings in the PCE measure have been running at either 0.5% or 0.4% since March 2023. We don't target housing prices, for example," Powell said. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, a nonvoter on the FOMC this year, on Tuesday singled out the "long-term stubbornness of shelter inflation."

Persons: Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Patrick Harker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Commerce, Philadelphia Fed

☆ These 14 small-cap stocks are expected to see the highest gains between 100% to 264%, according to top analysts on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-16 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US large-cap tech stocks have driven market gains, with the S&P 500 up 14% this year. Small-cap stocks may recover in late 2024 with Federal Open Market Committee rate cuts. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS large-cap stocks, especially tech-heavy ones, have carried the bulk of the stock market's gains so far this year. The Magnificent Seven pulled up the S&P 500, which has seen more than a 14% gain this year.

Persons: — Organizations: Open, Service, Nasdaq, Business

☆ Elevated interest rates are creating the best entry point in decades for a severely discounted index expected to see an explosive upside of up to 100% as rates drop
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

At the turn of the year, the market was banking on six rate cuts beginning in March. Advertisement"The valuation ratio from small caps to large caps right now is at a 24-year low. This is probably one of the best entry points into small and mid-cap stocks," Ewing said. He added that when the Fed starts cutting rates, small caps have historically outperformed. Morningstar holds steady to its expectation of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for 2024.

Persons: Jerome Powell, James St . Aubin, Brett Ewing, you've, we're, Ewing, haven't, David Sekera, Russell, Sekera Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Sierra Funds, Fed, Morningstar

☆ Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The monthly rate rose 0.3% in April while the annual rate was 3.3%. Though the top-line inflation numbers were lower for both the all-items and core measures, shelter inflation increased 0.4% on the month and was up 5.4% from a year ago. Housing-related numbers have been a sticking point in the Federal Reserve's inflation battle and make up a heavy share of the CPI weighting. Though the Fed doesn't use the CPI as its main inflation indicator, it still figures into the calculus.

Persons: Dow Jones, Price, Robert Frick, Joseph LaVorgna, FOMC Organizations: department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Treasury, Dow Jones, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, CPI, Nikko Securities, Commerce Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed confirms that Americans will have to wait longer for interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The nation's central bank is once again leaving interest rates unchanged as it works to lower inflation. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it's holding its key interest rate benchmark steady in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, continuing the pause that first began in September last year. The Summary of Economic Projections, released alongside the FOMC's interest rate decision, penciled in just one rate cut for 2024. "This housing-related inflation is directly driven by high interest rates: reducing rates will reduce the costs of renting, buying, and building housing, lowering Americans' single highest monthly expense," they wrote. "Lowering interest rates will likely also decrease the cost of auto insurance as well, which has risen due to factors completely unrelated to the cost of lending."

Persons: it's, Jerome Powell, We've, Powell, Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, Jacky Rosen, Brendan Boyle, Sen, Sheldon Whitehouse Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Business, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: Sens

☆ Fed in June is a modest disappointment for stocks, but fundamentals remain strong
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Open Market Committee statement, in which the Fed announced that it left interest rates unchanged, was a modest disappointment for stock bulls. On rate cuts, the majority supported only one rate cut, not two, and four were in favor of no rate cuts. It's a disappointment because so much of an additional leg up in the market is centered around this "Fed pivot," where the Fed moves from keeping rates high to cutting rates. So investors did not get the two rate cuts they wanted. But when compared with the main drivers of this market, it's only a modest disappointment.

Persons: It's Organizations: Fed, Netscape

☆ The Fed now expects just one interest rate cut this year — but there's still time for that to change, Powell says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in its latest decision on Wednesday. Its Summary of Economic Projections also penciled in just one interest rate cut for 2024. Still, Powell cautioned that could change and left the door open for a rate cut in September. AdvertisementThe odds of an interest rate cut this year just got slimmer. Notably, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the FOMC also released its Summary of Economic Projections — and the committee now has just one interest rate cut penciled in for 2024, with further cuts expected in 2025.

Persons: Powell, — Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Market Committee, Business

☆ Apple wants to put a friendlier spin on artificial intelligence, but many users could miss out
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at all the takeaways from Apple's big event , including its friendlier spin on artificial intelligence . Related VideoBut first, it's not AI; it's Apple Intelligence. Apple Intelligence — it's AI, just not that AI — is the company's first big swing in the space. Data is the name of the game when it comes to AI, and Apple's iPhones are full of it. However, the Apple Intelligence news and partnership with OpenAI is what really set the billionaire off.

Persons: —, we've, it's, Andrew Burton, Justin Sullivan, Rebecca Zisser, Tim Cook, Apple, Apple's, Insider's Jordan Hart, Katie Notopoulos, Pro Max, BI's Peter Kafka, Max —, wasn't, Elon Musk, Chelsea Jia Feng, Grzegorz Wajda, Elon, Bernstein, Toni Sacconaghi, Point72, Steve Cohen's, WallStreetBets, Tyler Le, OpenAI, Sarah Friar, Kevin Weil, who's, Sam Altman's, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Annie Smith Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Apple Intelligence, Washington, Getty, Apple, Pro, Elon, OpenAI, Academy Investment, GameStop, Planet Labs, Oracle Locations: Apple's, Chelsea, Silicon, New York, London

☆ Wall Street’s facing an economic double-whammy this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Despite the rare event, it’s unlikely the stock market will swing widely because of the economic two-fer, some investors say. Inflation showed signs of cooling in April after staying worryingly warm during the first quarter of this year. America’s rural hospitals keep getting attacked by cybercriminals. Microsoft said in a statement to CNN that it would provide free security updates for eligible rural hospitals, as well as security assessments and training for hospital staff. Google will provide free cybersecurity advice to rural hospitals and start a pilot program to match the firm’s cybersecurity services with the needs of rural hospitals.

Persons: Powell, ”, Dave Sekera, Alicia Wallace, Sean Lyngaas, Michelle Watson Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, CPI, Bank of America, Morningstar, Investors, Traders, Fed, UBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New, The, Consumer, cybercriminals, Microsoft, Google, White, CNN, White House National Security Council Locations: New York, pare, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, United States

☆ The Fed's next decision will likely mean Americans are going to wait a lot longer for any interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Americans shouldn't expect interest rate cuts to head their way anytime soon. Related stories"It may be bad, partly, because it is driven in part by uncertainty and fear and high interest rates holding back activity," Pollak added. "And if I had to bet, I bet that we will get two rate cuts, one in September and one in December." Some Democratic lawmakers have been pushing the Fed to cut rates and give Americans some breathing room, especially after the European Central Bank cut rates earlier in June for the first time in five years. "The Fed's decision to keep interest rates highs continues to widen the rate gap between Europe and the U.S, as the lower interest rates could push the dollar higher, tightening financial conditions," they wrote, adding: "You have kept interest rates too high for too long: it is time to cut rates."

Persons: there's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, It's, Pollak, Nick Bunker, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, we're, David Kelly, Kelly, Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen, John Hickenlooper Organizations: Service, Reserve, Business, North America, Morgan Asset Management, Democratic, European Central Bank Locations: United States, Amsterdam, Sens, Europe

☆ Asia markets are mixed ahead of Fed and BOJ decisions this week; Australia and China markets closed
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday revealed hiring and wage growth picked up in May. This adds to the narrative the Fed doesn't have to rush to lower interest rates. Traders don't expect the Federal Open Market Committee to cut rates at its meeting this week or the next meeting in July. This week in Asia, investors will be looking at Japan's first-quarter gross domestic product numbers on Monday, followed by the Bank of Japan's rate decision on Friday. Separately, China and India's inflation numbers for May will be released on Wednesday.

Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: Tokyo . Asia, Pacific, Asia, China

☆ The Fed's rate decision and May inflation data will be key tests for the stock market next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The next rate decision from the Federal Reserve coupled with May inflation data, both on Wednesday, will play key roles in how stocks perform next week — quite probably lending added volatility to an already jittery market. The Fed's rate decision All eyes are on the Fed next week and its rate decision that's set to come down at 2 p.m. Wednesday. But investors have tempered expectations since then amid a spate of stubborn inflation data. That makes May's consumer price index report due out before the bell Wednesday another key focal point for investors. Economists polled by Dow Jones are bracing for the consumer price index to rise 3.4% year over year and 0.1% on a monthly basis.

Persons: nonfarm, Kathryn Kaminski, Scott Wren, they've, it's, Tony Roth, Envestnet's Dana D'Auria, D'Auria, Dow Jones, Wells, Wren, John Belton, Apple, Jerome Powell, John Wiley Friday Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, GameStop, Dow, AlphaSimplex Group, Fed, Federal Open Market, European Central Bank, European Union, Wells Fargo Investment, Wilmington Trust's, CPI, Apple's Worldwide, Broadcom, Dave, Treasury, Signet Jewelers, University of Michigan Locations: Wells Fargo, Cupertino , California

☆ It finally looks like the US economy is sticking its soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A soft landing is on the horizon, too — or already here depending on who you ask — and recent data reinforces that. AdvertisementThere has been a ton of moderation in this rate particularly when comparing recent changes to those seen in 2022, another sign pointing to a soft landing. AdvertisementThe soft landing might already be hereDavid Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, believes the US has already achieved a soft landing. "To me, a soft landing is when the unemployment rate has basically hit its full-employment level, and the inflation rate is gradually coming down to a rate that's acceptable," Kelly said. Advertisement"In other words, a fairly comfortable soft landing with occasional turbulence," Draho added.

Persons: —, That's, it's, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, Briggs, Nick Bunker, Bunker, David Kelly, Kelly, Jason Draho, Draho, It's Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, North America, UBS, Morgan Asset Management, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Cleveland Fed taps Goldman Sachs veteran Beth Hammack as new president
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: 1 min

Washington CNN —The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland announced Wednesday that Beth M. Hammack will be its next president and chief executive officer after current president Loretta Mester retires at the end of June. Hammack, 52, joins the Cleveland Fed after three decades at Goldman Sachs. She is slated to vote on monetary policy decisions as of August 21, when her term officially starts. For the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Cleveland Fed Vice President Mark S. Meder will be voting. The central bank is currently mulling when to begin cutting interest rates after raising them to a two-decade high last summer.

Persons: Beth M, Loretta Mester, Goldman Sachs, Mark S Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland Fed, Federal, Market, Fed Locations: Hammack

☆ Goldman Sachs partner Beth Hammack to succeed Mester as Cleveland Fed leader
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A Goldman Sachs executive and finance industry veteran will take over as the new president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve. The central bank district announced Wednesday that Beth M. Hammack, 52, will take over when Loretta Mester steps down June 30. In the interim, Cleveland Fed First Vice President Mark S. Meder will serve as the president. As the Fed contemplates its next moves with monetary policy, the Cleveland president plays an important role this year as a voter on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Hammack comes to the Cleveland Fed after serving with Goldman Sachs since 1993 in multiple roles, having been a partner since 2010 after being named managing director in 2003.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Beth M, Loretta Mester, Hammack, Mark S, Beth, Heidi Gartland Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Fourth, Cleveland, Market, Stanford University, University Hospitals

☆ The Fed probably won't be delivering any interest rate cuts this summer
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesInvestors likely will have to sweat out a summer during which it looks increasingly improbable that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates. A batch of stronger-than-expected economic data coupled with fresh commentary from policymakers is pointing away from any near-term policy easing. "The market takes every bit of data and translates it to how the Fed sees it. So if the Fed is data dependent, the market is probably more data dependent." Put it together, and there's not much reason for the Fed to be easing policy here.

Persons: Michael M, Quincy Krosby, Christopher Waller, there's, Michael Gapen, BofA, Gapen Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, LPL, Fed, Bank of America Locations: New York City

☆ Treasury yields higher on positive economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The 10-year Treasury yield was higher at 4.478%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased to 4.9375%. U.S. Treasury yields rose Friday on the back of better-than-expected economic data. Services and manufacturing gauges for May both were higher than expected and showed expansion in both sectors, according to the purchasing managers' index from S&P Global released Thursday. Minutes from the April 30 to May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday pointed to uncertainty from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. — CNBC's Hakyung Kim and Jeff Cox contributed to this article.

Persons: CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Services, Global, Federal, Market

☆ Federal Reserve minutes indicate worries over lack of progress on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2024. Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and all of the indicators showed price increases running well ahead of that mark.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, FOMC, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, University of Michigan, New York Fed Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 closes at a record, Nvidia earnings loom: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday night as investors looked ahead to the widely-anticipated release of Nvidia 's latest earnings report. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered near the flatline, as did futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 . The moves followed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite 's new record-setting closes on Tuesday afternoon. The stock has rallied nearly 93% so far in 2024 and added 0.6% during Tuesday's trading session. Traders will also watch out for minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, alongside April's existing home sales.

Persons: Charles Schwab's, Liz Ann Sonders, Raymond James Financial Organizations: Nvidia, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Urban Outfitters, Dow Jones, Devices, Wednesday, Traders

☆ Fed Governor Waller wants 'several months' of good inflation data before lowering rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, citing a string of data showing that inflation appears to be easing, said Tuesday that he does not think further interest rate increases will be necessary. Yet Waller said he's not ready to back interest rate cuts. Markets have had to recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy this year. In the early months, futures markets traders priced in at least six rate cuts this year starting in March.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, he's Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Market, Labor Department Locations: Washington ,, Washington

☆ Buckle up America: Powell says interest rates will likely stay higher for longer as inflation stubbornly refuses to come down
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewInflation and interest rates are still high, but Americans shouldn't count on any relief just yet. Advertisement"The status of the battle against inflation requires that interest rates remain elevated in the near-term," Hamrick said. "The first quarter in the United States was notable for its lack of further progress on inflation," Powell said during the panel. But while job seekers and workers may find this cooldown concerning, that moderation is also welcome and the labor market is still strong. "Paired with high borrowing costs — like high interest rates on your credit cards — and the current economy can feel quite uncomfortable," Renter added.

Persons: —, That's, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, Jerome Powell, Powell, Joanne Hsu, Nick Bunker, Ted Rossman, Rossman, Elizabeth Renter, Renter, it's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Business, Federal, University of Michigan, North America Locations: Amsterdam, United States, —

☆ Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live to bankers group in Amsterdam
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday to the annual general meeting of the Foreign Bankers' Association in Amsterdam. Policymakers remain concerned that inflation is not showing enough evidence that it is moving toward the Fed's 2% annual target. Recent data points have shown prices both at the consumer and wholesale levels running hotter than expected while consumer sentiment also has shown elevated expectations over the short term. Markets still expect the Fed to lower rates later this year, and Powell said following the FOMC meeting that he thinks it unlikely that rates will increase from here.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Read Organizations: Foreign Bankers ' Association in, Market, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Foreign Bankers ' Association in Amsterdam

☆ How the Fed’s quest for transparency made markets more volatile
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Merritt Enright | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Markets typically respond to Fed comments with price swings in either direction, and recent research shows they are particularly reactive to Powell. And given the Fed's "data-dependent" approach, the baseline can change rapidly as new economic reports are released. "So now we're stuck with a system where there's only one view, there's only one outlook, it's a baseline outlook. And there's really no way to understand the Fed's thinking about where are the risks." Watch the video above to learn more about how the Fed's busy speaking schedule can create market volatility and how it balances transparency with market impact.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Levin, —, Levin, Ben Bernanke Organizations: Fed, Federal, Center for Economic Policy Research, Dartmouth College, Federal Reserve Locations: Federal, what's

☆ There’s a surprising bit of good news lurking in the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Traders fear that elevated rates will uphold painfully high borrowing costs for consumers, squeeze corporate profit and weigh down the market. The labor market has stayed strong, consumers have continued spending and stocks have notched repeated record highs. The April jobs report was a welcome sign that the labor market is cooling without cratering. The labor market added just 175,000 positions last month, marking its lowest tally since October 2023 and a sharp cooldown from the upwardly revised 315,000 jobs added in March. First-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed last week to 231,000, the highest level since last August, in another sign that the labor market is cooling.

Persons: “, ”, Jeff Buchbinder, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, April’s, David Russell, Matt Egan, Wally Adeyemo, Read, Diksha Madhok, Narendra Modi, Modi, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, Ambani, Ji, ” Modi, Rahul Gandhi Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Traders, CNN, Fed, LPL, ” Treasury, Treasury, Reliance Industries, Adani, Indian National Congress Locations: New York, Thursday’s, ’, India

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