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Median expectations for what inflation will look like over the next year rose for the seventh consecutive month to 4% in May. That is up from 3.4% in April and reaches a new high for the series, which launched in 2013. Expectations for inflation over the next three years increased more modestly to 3.6% from 3.1%. Consumers also shared a much brighter outlook for the labor market at a time when more businesses are opening up, travel is increasing and hiring is improving. The average expectation that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now dropped to a series low of 31.9% in May, down from 34.6% in April.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumers, Workers Locations: Westbury , New York, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Indeed, the dollar has gained in recent weeks even as yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell to more than three-month lows of 1.42% on Friday. Against a basket of its rivals, the greenback edged higher to 90.5 after rising as much as 0.4% last week, its biggest weekly rise since early May. In the week ended June 8, speculators had ratcheted up net short positions to the highest in nearly three months at $18.35 billion. Caution ahead of the Fed meeting also pushed a Deutsche Bank gauge of implied currency-market volatility to the lowest since February of last year, dropping around 10% since the start of the month. Against the dollar and the euro, the pound weakened as much as 0.2% in early London trading.
Persons: , John Marley, bitcoin, Elon Musk Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Treasury, , ., Deutsche Bank, Tesla Inc Locations: London, Britain, COVID
An employee of the Korea Exchange Bank counts one hundred U.S. dollar notes during a photo opportunity at the bank's headquarters in Seoul April 28, 2010. Currency markets settled in tight ranges with implied volatility plumbing to multi-year lows after last week's strong inflation readings and a dovish European Central Bank meeting failed to dislodge currencies from recent trading levels. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.1% at 90.427. Last week the index rose 0.4%, its largest weekly change in five weeks. Muted FX moves in recent weeks crushed the Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index (.DBCVIX) down to 5.6 on Friday, its lowest in nearly 16 months.
Persons: Jo Yong, we'll, Brad Bechtel, Jerome, Powell, Bechtel, John Marley, Sterling, bitcoin, Elon Musk Organizations: Korea Exchange Bank, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, FX, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, Tesla Inc, Thomson Locations: Seoul, London, Britain, COVID
The Pandemic Supercharged the Corporate Debt Boom
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Sam Goldfarb | ) www.wsj.com + 0.98   time to read: +2 min
Before the pandemic, U.S. companies were borrowing heavily at low interest rates. After a brief spike, interest rates on corporate debt plummeted to their lowest level on record, bringing a surge in new bonds. It helped cruise operators, airlines and movie theaters weather the pandemic by replacing some lost revenue with cash raised from bond sales. It allowed thriving businesses to stock up on cash and to save money by refinancing older debt. And it permitted companies that were struggling before the pandemic to ease the threat of bankruptcy by issuing new long-term debt.
Persons: “ It’s, , Dan Schlanger, “ We’ve Organizations: Federal Reserve, Crown, International Corp Locations: U.S
Fed tiptoes towards the taper stage months before the curtain call
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com + 0.00   time to read: +6 min
“I think it will start very, very cautiously,” he added, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell won’t be in any rush to conclude it. The risk of another “taper tantrum” - the market ruckus that erupted eight years ago when Fed policymakers first broached the notion of scaling back their bond-buying after the 2007-2008 financial crisis - appears remote this time. DIFFERENT ECONOMY, DIFFERENT FRAMEWORKCompared with the last time the Fed was contemplating reducing its bond purchases, the U.S. economy is arguably in better shape. But the Fed still seems less eager to ease up on the monetary policy gas pedal than it was eight years ago. In 2013, Fed policymakers aimed to complete the taper by the time unemployment had dropped to 7%.
Persons: Robin Brooks, , , Jerome Powell won’t, Powell, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, Gregory Daco, Daco Organizations: Federal Reserve, Institute of International Finance, Fed, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Oxford Economics, Reuters, Wall Street Locations: Treasuries, U.S, York
Stocks Edge Lower After S&P 500 Hits Record
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Anna Hirtenstein | ) www.wsj.com sentiment -0.97   time to read: +1 min
U.S. stocks wobbled Monday, pointing to the S&P 500 hovering near a fresh record after it ended last week at an all-time high. The S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower. The broad market gauge has climbed for three consecutive weeks. Stocks have ground higher amid an improving growth outlook in many developed countries and continued central bank support. Investors remain concerned that the Fed’s evolving views on inflation and the labor market could prompt the central bank to scale back easy-money policies sooner than previously expected.
Persons: ” Salman Baig, , Novavax Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, “ Stock Locations: Unigestion
This backdrop has supported euro zone bond markets in recent days, allowing yields to fall further. Its 10-year bond yield touched 0.74% , its lowest level in almost eight weeks, before steadying around 0.75%. Most 10-year bond yields in the euro area were steady with Tuesday’s two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve providing another reason for subdued trading across markets. Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield was flat on the day at -0.27%. “The key point is that new EU bonds will provide investors with a liquid alternative,” said Lidia Treiber, director, research at WisdomTree Asset Management.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, , Antoine Bouvet, Lidia Treiber Organizations: European Central Bank, Politico, ECB, ING, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Union, EU, WisdomTree Asset Management Locations: Italy
EMERGING MARKETS-Turkish lira outperforms, EM forex index slips
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Susan Mathew | ) www.reuters.com + 0.00   time to read: +3 min
MSCI’s index of EM currencies fell 0.2% ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later in the week. Investors are watching out for any mention of monetary policy tightening that could hit market appetite for risk assets. Erdogan said over the weekend that Turkey had raised its forex swap line with China to $6 billion from $2.4 billion. Ahead of a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 16, Biden said that Russia might be weaker than it seemed under “autocrat” Putin. For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdXFor TOP NEWS across emerging marketsFor CENTRAL EUROPE market report, seeFor TURKISH market report, seeFor RUSSIAN market report, see (Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Joe Biden, NATO’s, Russia’s rouble, Vladimir Putin, Biden, autocrat ” Putin, ” Morgan Stanley, Susan Mathew, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: U.S ., U.S, Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, Western, CENTRAL Locations: Turkey, China, Brussels, Russian, U.S, Russia, Belarus, South Africa, Bengaluru
Financials, energy stocks boost FTSE 100 ahead of reopening decision
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Devik Jain | ) www.reuters.com sentiment -0.99   time to read: +2 min
(Reuters) - London’s FTSE 100 index climbed on Monday, helped by gains in heavyweight financials and energy stocks, while investors awaited the government’s decision on whether it would delay England’s complete reopening from a third national lockdown. FILE PHOTO: A man shelters under an umbrella as he walks past the London Stock Exchange in London, Britain, August 24, 2015. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett/File PhotoThe blue-chip index rose 0.4%. The domestically focused mid-cap FTSE 250 index advanced 0.4%. Asian shares also rose as market participants expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to stick to its dovish mantra later this week.
Persons: Suzanne Plunkett, Shell, ” Paul Donovan, Boris Johnson, ” Donovan, SThree Organizations: Reuters, London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, U.S . Federal Reserve, UBS Global Wealth Management, Serco, ITV Locations: London, Britain, U.S, British
RPT-GRAPHIC-Take Five: Fed-flation in focus
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com + 0.00   time to read: +4 min
After years of very low inflation, a range of metrics, including the Fed’s preferred core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, are on the rise. The PCE rose 3.8% in the 12-months to May, its largest jump in three decades. The Fed insists consumer price gains will be temporary and that it has the tools to combat an inflationary surge. -ANALYSIS-Job-inflation tradeoff, exiled from Fed policy, could mean a hot summer2/ DEBT DEBUTThe EU will issue its first bond under the 800 billion euro post-pandemic recovery fund, possibly within days. Yet, don’t underestimate the significance: The EU is set to become one of the world’s biggest issuers with 80 billion euros worth of bonds for the recovery fund sold this year.
Persons: Alexander Hamilton, Joe Biden, Tayyip Erdogan, Biden, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Federal Reserve, PCE, Fed, Treasury, ECB, EU, NATO, Wednesday, hawkish, Bank of New, Kiwi Locations: Europe, United States, China, Beijing, Brussels, Syria, Afghanistan, U.S, Ankara, Washington, Geneva, Ukraine, Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand
PRECIOUS-Gold prices at 1-1/2-week low on dollar strength as Fed meeting looms
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Brijesh Patel | ) www.reuters.com sentiment -1.00   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,864.58 per ounce, as of 0311 GMT, its lowest since June 4. However, Fed officials have repeatedly said that inflation would be transitory and expect monetary stimulus would stay in place for some time. Focus now shifts to the Fed’s June 15-16 meeting for further clarity on the policymakers’ view on rising inflation and monetary policy going forward. Morgan Stanley in its research note on Friday said it expects the Fed at its upcoming policy meeting to lay the groundwork for increased flexibility on its quantitative easing program by “talking about talking about tapering”. Elsewhere, silver slipped 0.3% to $27.80 per ounce, palladium eased 0.2% to $2,771.31, while platinum dipped 0.6% to $1,143.71.
Persons: , Stephen Innes, Morgan Stanley, Brijesh Patel, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: Bengaluru
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,864.61 per ounce, as of 0536 GMT, its lowest since June 4. Focus now shifts to the Fed’s June 15-16 meeting for further clarity on policymakers’ view on rising inflation and monetary policy going forward. Spot gold may break a support at $1,860 per ounce, and fall towards $1,842, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week ended June 8 and raised their net long positions in silver. Silver was flat at $27.89 per ounce, palladium eased 0.1% to $2,773.52, while platinum dipped 0.5% to $1,143.89.
Persons: , Stephen Innes, Morgan Stanley, Wang Tao, Brijesh Patel, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Rashmi Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, Bengaluru
PRECIOUS-Gold prices drop 1% on dollar strength as Fed meeting looms
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Brijesh Patel | ) www.reuters.com sentiment -1.00   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold was down 0.9% at $1,860.44 per ounce, as of 0654 GMT, its lowest since June 4. U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to $1,862.20. The dollar held firm near a one-week high against its rivals, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Focus now shifts to the Fed’s June 15-16 meeting for further clarity on policymakers’ view on rising inflation and monetary policy going forward. Silver fell 0.4% to $27.78 per ounce, palladium dropped 0.5% to $2,762.44, while platinum dipped 0.6% to $1,142.84.
Persons: , Stephen Innes, Innes, ” Jeffrey Halley, , Brijesh Patel, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Rashmi Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, Asia, Bengaluru
Gold drops to over 1-week low on firmer dollar; U.S. Fed meet in focus
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com sentiment -0.97   time to read: +1 min
Gold prices fell to a more than one-week low on Monday, weighed down by a stronger dollar as focus turns to the Federal Reserve policy meeting this week with recent spikes in U.S. consumer prices seen as a temporary blip. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,867.51 per ounce, as of 0119 GMT, its lowest since June 4. The dollar rose 0.1% to hover near a one-week high against its rivals, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Focus now shifts to the Fed's June 15-16 policy meeting for further clarity on the policymakers' view on rising inflation and economic recovery. Some investors view gold as a hedge against higher inflation that could follow stimulus measures.
Persons: Silver Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Locations: India, China
Dollar little changed as traders seek direction from Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com sentiment -1.00   time to read: +2 min
The U.S. dollar held steady against major currencies on Monday, after posting its biggest weekly gain in more than a month, as traders closed short positions ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting this week. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was mostly flat at 90.510 from as high as 90.612 on Friday. "The dollar repositioning shows some nerves heading into the FOMC policy update," NAB strategist Jason Wong wrote in a note. "Over the past month there appears to have been a growing chorus that the time to talk about tapering bond purchases had been reached." Rival ether was at around $2,500, the middle of a narrowing trading range spanning the past month.
Persons: Jason Wong, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, NAB Locations: Hong Kong, Asia
World stocks near record high as investors await dovish Fed act
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Hideyuki Sano | ) www.reuters.com + 0.00   time to read: +4 min
REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonGlobal shares held firm near record highs on Monday while U.S. bond yields flirted with three-month lows as investors expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its dovish mantra later this week. The MSCI all-country world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), the U.S. S&P 500 (.SPX) and the pan-regional STOXX Europe 600 index (.STOXX) all closed at record highs on Friday. Many investors expect the Fed to repeat its dovish view at its two-day meeting from Tuesday. "There will probably be no surprise from the Fed this week," said Mitsubishi UFJ's Fujito. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures added 0.2% to $71.05 per barrel, near their highest since October 2018.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Norihiro Fujito, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Treasuries, Akira Takei, Boris Johnson's, Johnson Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Hoon Global, Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Asset Management, European Central Bank, British, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, China, Hong Kong, Australia, U.S, Europe, India
Stocks wait at record peaks for Fed; oil marches higher
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Hideyuki Sano | ) www.reuters.com + 0.00   time to read: +4 min
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.7% while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.2%. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), the U.S. S&P 500 (.SPX) and the pan-regional STOXX Europe 600 index (.STOXX) all closed at record highs on Friday. "Yes, PPIs are racing higher, but will that be reflected in higher consumer goods prices from China? Certainly, that's what the U.S. bond market is saying to us." Speculators are also building up long positions in U.S. debt, with their net long positions in U.S. bond futures hitting the highest level since October 2017 , U.S. financial watchdog data showed.
Persons: Athit, Jeffrey Halley, Treasuries, Akira Takei, Norihiro Fujito, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Boris Johnson's, Johnson, Bitcoin Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oil, Asset Management, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, European Central Bank, British, Brent, Elon Musk, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, China, Hong Kong, Australia, U.S, Europe
European markets continue march to record highs as Fed meeting looms
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com sentiment -0.99   time to read: 1 min
European stocks advanced higher to start the week as investors look ahead to the June meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The pan-European Stoxx 600 gained 0.2% by mid-morning after closing last week at a record high. The Fed is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged and again downplay talk of tapering down its stimulus program. Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed on Monday with markets in mainland China, Hong Kong and Australia closed for public holidays. Stateside, U.S. stock futures were little changed in early premarket trade after the S&P 500 closed out last week at a record high.
Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Asia, Pacific, China, Hong Kong, Australia
Any Federal Reserve announcement about tapering is unlikely to be 'sudden,' says HSBC
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com sentiment -0.99   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAny Federal Reserve announcement about tapering is unlikely to be 'sudden,' says HSBCCommunication from the U.S. Federal Reserve about any potential tapering is expected to be done in a "calibrated manner" to avoid a knee-jerk reaction, says James Cheo of HSBC Private Banking and Wealth Management.
Persons: James Cheo Organizations: HSBC Communication, U.S . Federal Reserve, HSBC Private Banking, Wealth Management
Bank of America's Moynihan says the Fed can pull back on policy help
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com sentiment -1.00   time to read: +2 min
"I think the reality is the accommodation is not needed at the same level, clearly," Moynihan told CNBC's Becky Quick during a "Squawk Box" interview. And the great debate is when is [inflation] transitory or not transitory." With consumer price inflation running around 5% year-over-year, the Fed is well ahead of its 2% inflation goal. Banks are awash in deposits and reserves while the Fed holds rates down and keeps buying Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities each month. For small business, "Six months ago it was all about pandemic, pandemic, pandemic," Moynihan said.
Persons: Brian Moynihan, Moynihan, CNBC's Becky Quick, we've, Banks Organizations: of America, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Fed Locations: U.S
7 key things that happened in crypto over the past week
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( Taylor Locke | ) www.cnbc.com + 0.00   time to read: +4 min
It was another busy week in the crypto world, from El Salvador adopting bitcoin as legal tender to a CryptoPunk NFT selling for a record amount. In case you missed it, here are seven things worth knowing about what happened in crypto over the last week. "The threats posted by crypto show that Congress and federal regulators can't continue to hide out, hoping that crypto will go away. Bitcoin 2021 Conference attendees report testing positive for Covid-19Several attendees of the Bitcoin 2021 Conference in Miami, Florida, last weekend have tested positive for Covid-19. CryptoPunk NFT sells for record $11.7 million at Sotheby's auctionA rare CryptoPunk sold on Thursday at Sotheby's for over $11.7 million.
Persons: bitcoin, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Cryptocurrency, Warren, CryptoPunk NFT, Shalom Meckenzie, Fred Thiel, Smart, Elon, Tesla Organizations: El, FBI, Colonial Pipeline, Department, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Miami, Marathon Digital Holdings Locations: El Salvador, bitcoin, U.S, Miami , Florida, Sotheby's, DraftKings
The Federal Reserve is risking its credibility by keeping policy so loose and allowing inflation to grow in a way that may not be temporary, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Monday. This week could see "the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell's career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years," Jones told CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin during a "Squawk Box" interview. Specifically, Jones said consecutive consumer price index readings put price pressures well ahead of the Fed's 2% inflation goal. The Fed's messaging surrounding inflation will be critical for the road ahead, he said. "If they treat these numbers with nonchalance, then I think it's just a green light to bet heavily on every inflation trade," Jones said.
Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, Jay Powell's, Jones, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, we've, You've Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Fed, Federal Reserve
Crispin Odey, who runs the eponymous manager, believes inflation is here to stay. In a letter to investors, Odey said the inflation will provide his fund with big opportunities. Inflation is on every investor's mind, and for $2.5 billion one hedge fund manager, a rise in prices is welcomed. In an inflationary environment, Odey wrote, there are often multiple bidders attempting to purchase a target company — thus driving the target's stock higher. Since launching the fund in October 2019, the special situations offering has returned 38%.
Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey Organizations: Odey, Management, US Federal Reserve, Heineken, Fund Research Locations: British
Natixis's Esty Dwek and Stifel's Barry Bannister on the Fed and market outlook
  + stars: | 2021-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com sentiment -0.91   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNatixis's Esty Dwek and Stifel's Barry Bannister on the Fed and market outlookEsty Dwek, Natixis head of global market strategy, and Barry Bannister, Stifel chief equity strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss their expectations from the Federal Reserve and if they see a Treasury sell-off this week.
Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, Esty, Barry Bannister Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve
Retiring Workers Alter Fed’s Calculus on Jobs Shortfall
  + stars: | 2021-06-13 | by ( Paul Kiernan | ) www.wsj.com sentiment -1.00   time to read: +1 min
WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve officials have long said a key condition for raising interest rates is a return to maximum employment. Policy makers are likely to discuss when and how to start reducing monthly purchases of bonds, a prelude to eventually raising rates, at a meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday. Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this year that gap was “one way of counting it.” In May, the shortfall stood at 7.6 million jobs. But in recent weeks, policy makers have become less confident the economy can recover all the jobs lost amid the pandemic without spurring inflation. The Fed believes many factors holding back the labor force are tied to the pandemic and will fade later this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: WASHINGTON
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