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☆ Oppenheimer raises S&P 500 2024 forecast to highest on Street on removal of election uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oppenheimer sees more upside ahead for the S & P 500 now that the presidential election is over. The firm lifted its price target on the broad index to 6,200 from 5,900, reflecting 3.5% upside from Friday's close. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500's year-to-date performance According to Stoltzfus, the election helped rid the market of lingering uncertainties and ushered in a "sigh of relief rally." The S & P 500 surged more than 4% last week, marking its biggest weekly advance in over a year. Oppenheimer retained its earnings estimates for the year, noting that the S & P 500 companies reporting so far have signaled "robust" quarters.

Persons: Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Donald Trump's Organizations: CNBC Pro's, Fed Monetary

☆ It takes more than a year for monetary policies to come through, BofA strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt takes more than a year for monetary policies to come through, BofA strategist saysSebastian Raedler, head of European equity strategy at the Bank of America, discusses the impact of the Fed monetary policy on the U.S. market at the BofA Financials CEO conference in London.

Persons: Sebastian Raedler Organizations: Bank of America Locations: London

☆ JPMorgan: First Fed rate cut will come in November
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan: First Fed rate cut will come in NovemberJoyce Chang, Chair of Global Research at JPMorgan, previews the latest Fed monetary policy decision.

Persons: Joyce Chang Organizations: JPMorgan, Global Research

☆ Direct Iran-Israel war could spike oil by $30 to $40, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A direct war between Israel and Iran could lead to substantially higher oil prices through 2025, according to Bank of America. This scenario assumes that Iran's crude oil production falls by up to 1.5 million barrels per day due to the war. Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading sessions in the wake of Iran's weekend missile and drone assault against Israel. The bank has penciled in the first Fed interest rate cut in December, and oil prices would come down by then though remain elevated. "Should supply losses build up regionally, it may also prove difficult to access spare production capacity, so oil prices would likely settle above $150/bbl for several months," the bank's analysts forecast.

Persons: Brent, Israel, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Israel, Bank, Federal, bbl, Israeli Locations: Israel, Iran, OPEC, U.S

☆ Goldman strategist discusses Fed monetary policy and ASEAN markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman strategist discusses how change in expectations around Fed may affect Southeast Asia marketsTimothy Moe, co-head of Asia macro research and chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the Monetary Authority of Singapore's decision to keep monetary policy unchanged, the outlook for Southeast Asian central bank monetary policy and his equity strategy for the region.

Persons: Goldman, Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Monetary Authority Locations: Asia, Pacific

☆ China's central bank leaves key policy rate unchanged under shadow of the Federal Reserve
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A man walks past the People's Bank of China (PBOC) building on Dec. 25, 2023 in Beijing, China. China's central bank left a key policy rate unchanged as expected on Sunday when rolling over maturing medium-term loans, with uncertainties around the timing of an easing by the Federal Reserve limiting Beijing's room to maneuver on monetary policy. China's central bank left a key policy rate unchanged as expected on Sunday when rolling over maturing medium-term loans, with uncertainties around the timing of an easing by the Federal Reserve limiting Beijing's room to maneuver on monetary policy. But any aggressive monetary movement risks reviving depreciation pressure on the Chinese currency and capital outflows. Sunday's operation was meant to "maintain banking system liquidity reasonably ample," the central bank said in an online statement.

Organizations: People's Bank of China, Federal Reserve Locations: Beijing, China, outflows

☆ Job data suggests ‘soft landing’ is increasingly likely, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Luis Alvarez | Digitalvision | Getty ImagesThe U.S. economy inched closer to a so-called "soft landing" after a new batch of labor data, economists said. Why a soft landing is like 'Goldilocks' porridge'Steaming bowl of oatmeal porridge, made with Irish oats, wheat berries and barley. A soft landing is like "'Goldilocks' porridge' for central bankers," Brookings Institution economists wrote recently. How the labor market fits inWhy the job market is already 'back into balance'The latest labor data added to encouraging news about a likely soft landing, economists said. Despite the large monthly decline, job openings are still 25% above their February 2020 level, she added.

Persons: Luis Alvarez, Jason Furman, Obama, Jon Lovette, Julia Pollak, Pollak Organizations: Digitalvision, Federal Reserve, U.S . Department of Labor, Labor, Harvard University, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Getty, Fed, Brookings, American Economic Association

Since June, the quarterly "dot plot" of policymakers' projections of the appropriate path of policy has shown rates rising another quarter point this year. Investors will be eager for the boost a rate cut would give to markets, and consumers will be relieved by lower mortgage and credit rates. Indeed, in remarks last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that over the last six months inflation had averaged around 2.5%. Investors, meanwhile, have become increasingly fixed on March as a starting point for rate cuts. Between falling inflation and a modest slowdown in growth, Powell said: "We are getting what we wanted to get."

Persons: Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus, Reinhart, Donald Trump, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, Mellon, WE, Republican, Bank of America, Fed, Spelman College, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta

After getting battered for most of 2023, emerging market (EM) currencies have made modest gains against the dollar after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week and data suggested the U.S. economy might finally be slowing. That dollar weakening trend was likely to hold in the near-term as a majority of analysts in the Nov. 3-7 Reuters poll expected the dollar to trade lower by year-end. "So it's difficult to see the EM currencies recoup some of the sharp losses that we've seen in the last few months. Although EM currencies gained at the beginning of 2023 and investors brimmed with positivity after China's post-COVID reopening, economic performance in the world's second largest economy has been mostly underwhelming. "Easier Fed monetary policy should also take some pressure off select emerging market currencies in the second half of next year," noted Nick Bennenbroek, international economist at Wells Fargo.

Persons: We've, Mitul Kotecha, we've, it's, Nick Bennenbroek, Devayani Sathyan, Anant Chandak, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Mark Potter Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, FX, Asia, Barclays, South Korean, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, JOHANNESBURG, U.S, Brazilian, Wells Fargo

The 10-year Treasury yield was down nearly 1 basis point to 4.839%, trading near 16-year highs seen in early October on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield was trading more than 1 basis point lower at 5.199% after hitting levels last seen in 2006 on Tuesday. U.S. Treasurys were little changed on Wednesday as investors digested the latest economic data and considered the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. Investors considered fresh economic data as uncertainty about the path ahead for Fed monetary policy grew in recent weeks. Upcoming economic data may also influence opinion among both investors and Fed officials.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed Locations: .

For months now, inflation has been steadily trending down to a 3% level after hitting 9% last summer. That will likely bring the annual rate to 3.6%. The Fed actually pays attention to a less well-known inflation metric and tends to focus on core inflation minus housing and those numbers are improving. We look for the monthly pace of core inflation to rebound to 0.2%-0.3% in Q4 and keep the annual rate closer to 4% than 3% through year end. The annual rate of headline CPI is also likely to remain stuck just above 3% through the end of 2023.

Persons: ”, Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, Janet Yellen Organizations: CPI, White, Fed, PPI Locations: India, U.S

☆ Powell signals no retreat, no surrender
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell walks in Teton National Park where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the Jackson Hole economic symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S., August 26, 2022. There's no doubt that the U.S. central bank is nearing the end of its mission to wrestle down inflation. Headline consumer price pressures are rapidly abating, thanks to a wholesale retreat in food and energy prices. "It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," he said. This week, investors get a dose of top-tier data to help shape their view on the Fed's next move.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, Amanda Cooper, it's, Mohammed El, Erian, payrolls, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Futures Trading, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Dallas Fed, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S

☆ Treasury yields are little changed as investors assess inflation outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up by 1 basis point at 3.983%. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Monday as investors digested the latest inflation data, which could affect Federal Reserve monetary policy, and considered the outlook for the economy. Investors considered what could be next for inflation and Fed monetary policy, especially regarding interest rates. That comes after Friday's reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed's favored inflation gauge — suggested that inflation is cooling. Elsewhere, preliminary euro zone inflation data is due Monday and expected to show that pressures from rising prices are cooling, and the Bank of England is set to make an interest rate decision on Thursday.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, PCE, Bank of England

LONDON/HONG KONG, July 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks held steady on Tuesday, as investors balanced the inflationary force of rising oil prices with hopes that central banks would not over-tighten monetary policy into a potential recession. Earlier in the session, Australia's central bank held interest rates steady at 4.1%, saying it needed time to assess the economic impact of its rate hikes so far. Complicating the outlook for inflation, oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed supply cuts for August by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent crude futures climbed 0.6% to $75.09 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate crude adding the same amount to $70.23. "At least the improved supply-demand imbalance seems to be having an effect on price pressures," Capital Economics global economist Ariane Curtis said.

Persons: Europe's, Brent, Ariane Curtis, Curtis, Manishi Raychaudhuri, Raychaudhuri, Schatz, Paul Volcker, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes, Himani Sarkar, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Wall, West Texas, Institute of Supply Management, Economics, Asia, BNP Paribas, Treasury, Independence, U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Singapore

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was trading about 3 basis points higher at 3.752%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Thursday as investors assessed what could be ahead for interest rates and digested remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors considered the path ahead for Fed monetary policy after Powell said on Wednesday that further interest rate hikes are likely as inflation remains too high. Policymakers had decided to keep interest rates unchanged but noted that two 25 basis point increases are expected this year. Elsewhere, the Bank of England announced a surprise 50 basis point rate hike Thursday, which is its 13th increase in a row.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Investors, Senate, Committee, Bank of England

Companies United States of America FollowJune 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices traded up on Tuesday on bargain hunting, recovering some ground from the previous day's plunge, but gains were limited as investors remained cautious ahead of key policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks. Oil prices could fall further because of China's faltering economic recovery, he added, predicting WTI would trade in the range of $62.50 to $75 a barrel during the summer, but mainly below $70 a barrel. Most market participants expect the U.S. central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting. The Fed's rate hikes have strengthened the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and weighing on prices. "In our view, the latest fall in oil prices increases the probability Saudi Arabia will at least extend supply cuts currently in place for July," said National Australia Bank analysts in a note.

Persons: Tatsufumi Okoshi, Nomura's Okoshi, Yuka Obayashi, Emily Chow, Jamie Freed, Sonali Paul Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, . West Texas, Nomura Securities, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, of Petroleum Exporting, International Energy Agency, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: States, America, Saudi Arabia, U.S, China, Saudi, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Oil prices rise 3% after China rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices climbed 3% on Tuesday, recovering from steep losses the previous session, after China's central bank lowered a short-term lending rate for the first time in 10 months. The rate cut, aimed at adding momentum to a hesitant post-pandemic recovery in the world's second-largest economy and biggest crude importer, is likely increase oil demand. The Fed's rate hikes have strengthened the dollar , making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and weighing on oil prices, so a rate hike pause could be bullish. Worries about demand have unraveled the temporary boost in oil prices from Saudi Arabia's pledge announced early this month to cut more production in July. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its forecast for 2023 global oil demand growth steady for a fourth month on Tuesday, slightly increasing expectations of Chinese demand growth.

Persons: Phil Flynn, Giovanni Staunovo, Saudi Arabia's Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, Price Futures, European Central Bank, of Petroleum Exporting, International Energy Agency, Reuters Locations: U.S, Saudi

☆ Fed's Williams says world of low interest rates still prevails
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Williams' remarks took on the technical concept of the natural rate of interest, referred to as R-Star, which the New York Fed defines "as the real short-term interest rate expected to prevail when an economy is at full strength and inflation is stable." Before the pandemic struck, this measure had been historically low, allowing the central bank to keep its interest rate target at fairly low levels. Williams said that given efforts to understand how the pandemic had impacted R-Star, his regional Fed bank will once again provide an estimate on a quarterly basis. To translate R-Star into a real-world rate depends on taking the variable and adding it to the central bank's 2% inflation target. But his comments suggest that once the Fed's battle to contain high inflation is over, it may again at some later time be able to return short-term rates to low levels.

☆ Fed monetary policy mechanics would be tested by US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That's because U.S. government bonds are the key to how the central bank sets its short-term interest rate target. Anything that gums up the Treasuries market could scramble those mechanics. Setting a baseline for short-term interest rates via its reverse repo facility in effect borrows cash from money market funds in transactions collateralized with government bonds. The Fed currently owns about $5.2 trillion in Treasury debt, and the bulk of it would be fine at the start of a default. And that's where pricing an impaired Treasury for Fed operations gets tricky.

Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL.O) dropped 12% and led declines on the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) after the company cut its margin forecast. They were also among the top drags on the Nasdaq Composite index (.IXIC). Shares of other Apple suppliers including Qualcomm (QCOM.O), Broadcom (AVGO.O), Qorvo (QRVO.O) and Corning (GLW.N) fell between 1.2% to 2%. The action-packed week will see the release of the much-awaited inflation data on Wednesday. The S&P index recorded 13 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 52 new highs and 130 new lows.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 14 (Reuters) - Engineering a soft landing is hard. Blinder posits that the soft landing parameters of avoiding recession completely are too narrow. "To achieve another soft landing under these circumstances, the Fed will have to be skillful indeed," Blinder concludes. The Fed cut rates five months later and the rest is soft landing history. Of these 70 episodes, 41 ended with a hard landing and 29 with a soft landing.

☆ The 2-year Treasury yield is 'acting like a meme stock' and swinging wildly as investors see the Fed making a mistake by not cutting interest rates, says John Hancock strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The 2-year Treasury yield has been swinging sharply and "acting like a meme stock," a top strategist at John Hancock said on Tuesday. The inverted yield curve is telling the Fed it's making a mistake by not cutting interest rates, said strategist Emily Roland. "When the two-year Treasury yield is acting like a meme stock there's a lot of uncertainty here around Fed policy," she added. But the 2-year yield — moving around 4% on Tuesday — has been on a roller coaster since early March. The 2-year yield at 4% was higher than the 10-year yield at 3.43% on Tuesday, creating an inverted yield curve widely seen as signaling an oncoming recession.

☆ Treasury yields rise as investors await key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at around 3.5715% after rising by around two basis points. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by more than four basis points to 4.1431%. U.S. Treasurys climbed on Friday as investors awaited fresh inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about future central bank monetary policy. The data could provide hints about whether the economy is cooling and inflationary pressures are easing, which is likely to affect Fed monetary policy. Investors will be scanning fresh comments from Fed officials slated to speak on Friday.

☆ Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks is at its lowest since 2021 as investors grapple with the cryptocurrency's narrative shift
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The break became more noticeable in March, as investors rediscovered bitcoin's appeal as alternative banking system as the regional banking crisis unfolded. Bitcoin's correlation with the S & P 500 is now at its lowest since September 2021, after reaching its highest ever in 2022 , according to Coin Metrics. Meanwhile, bitcoin's correlation with gold, a traditionally "risk-off" asset, has risen. This break in correlation is perhaps a sign more investors are waking up to this fact." Bitcoin became more of an institutional asset at the start of 2021 as big investors, short term traders and macro funds jumped into the market.

☆ Treasury yields rise as investors assess interest rate outlook ahead of key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by almost seven basis points to 3.5827%. The 2-year Treasury was last at 4.1857% after climbing over 15 basis points. It had declined by close to 59 basis points on Monday, notching the biggest three-day drop since the fallout from the October 1987 stock market crash. U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Tuesday as investors weighed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes after the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and awaited fresh inflation data. Bond yields had plummeted as prices rose following the bank's collapse, which sparked fears of broader issues across the banking sector.

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