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☆ Watch Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speak live in Atlanta on policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday to an audience at Spelman College in Atlanta. His remarks come with market pricing indicating that the Fed is done hiking rates and could start cutting as soon as March 2024. However, officials have been reluctant to discuss the possibility of policy easing, maintaining that the recent progress against inflation isn't enough. Powell's remarks will be his last policy address before the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Dec. 12-13.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Read, Fed's Barkin Organizations: Federal, Spelman College, Market, Fed Locations: Atlanta

☆ Fed's Barkin says rate hikes are still on the table if inflation doesn't continue to ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said Wednesday that policymakers need to retain the option of raising interest rates if inflation doesn't show enough progress coming down. But Barkin said he's not ready to commit to a particular policy path with so much uncertainty in the air. "But if inflation is going to flare back up, I think you want to have the option of doing more on rates," Barkin added. The Fed's preferred inflation measure of core personal consumption expenditures showed a 12-month rate of 3.7% in September and is expected to show a slightly lower reading in October. However, Barkin called the possibility of easing policy "a forecasting question" that he's not ready to answer.

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, he's, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Christopher Waller, he'd, it's, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Richmond Federal, CNBC, Commerce Department, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Market

☆ Gold rises on dollar weakness as focus turns to Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Brijesh Patel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar languished near more than a 2-1/2-month low as investors expect U.S. interest rates to fall next year. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for other currency holders. Signs of slowing inflation in the United States has boosted expectations that the U.S. central bank was done raising interest rates. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. Inflation is likely to remain "stubborn" and force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer than investors anticipate, Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin said.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Edward Meir, CME's, Jerome Powell, It's, Meir, Thomas Barkin, Brijesh Patel, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, Benchmark, Richmond Fed, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, U.S, United States, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Japanese stocks party like it's 1990
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A man walks past an electronic board displaying Japan's 10-year government bonds level, the current Japanese Yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average, outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, October 31, 2023. It's been a mixed start for most of Asia in this holiday-truncated week, though Japanese shares extended their bull streak to hit highs not seen since 1990. The Nikkei is up more than 8% so far this month, and almost 29% for the year so far. The entire market capitalisation of the Topix is 454 trillion yen ($3.03 trillion), yet Japanese companies held 555 trillion yen in internal reserves at the end of the financial year. Recent surveys show inflation expectations are finally picking up which may prompt households to invest some of the 1,000 trillion yen they currently keep in cash and deposits into equities and bonds.

Persons: Kim Kyung, It's, financials, de, de Cos, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Fed's Barkin, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan's, Hamas, Tech, Nvidia, Futures, PPI, Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Israel, United States, Gaza, de Galhau

☆ Fed's Barkin says more data needed before making next monetary policy call
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin poses during a break at a Dallas Fed conference on technology in Dallas, Texas, U.S., May 23, 2019. “That’s why I supported our decision to hold rates steady at the last meeting,” Barkin said. The Fed, at its policy meeting on Sept. 19-20, maintained its federal funds target rate range at 5.25%-5.50%. Aggressive Fed rate rises have been aimed at lowering inflation pressures, and Barkin said the path of inflation remains his key focus. “The path forward to me depends on whether we can convince ourselves inflationary pressures are behind us, or whether we see them persisting,” Barkin said.

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Ann Saphir, Barkin, “, ” Barkin, Michael S, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reserve Bank of Richmond, Dallas Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, NYU, Thomson Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S

That includes a possibility "that inflation stays high and the economy strengthens," Barkin said. Barkin said there was nothing in the recent market movements which caused him to think financial conditions were tightening too quickly or in ways that were concerning. "It doesn't strike me that having a 10-year rate over 4 (percent) is somehow wildly inappropriate," given the Fed's current policy rate, Barkin said. Rates seem to be increasing "as best I can tell with the strength of the economic data ... If consumer spending and retail sales continue to be that strong ... it's probably appropriate."

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, it's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, U.S, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: DANVILLE, Virginia, .

☆ Fed's Barkin: Inflation still too high, hopes recent data is 'a sign'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A man arranges produce at Best World Supermarket in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File photo(Reuters) - U.S. inflation remains too high, although recent readings showing price pressures have eased notably were welcome, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday. “Certainly, last month’s inflation read was a good one and I hope it is a sign,” Barkin said in remarks prepared for a speech in Virginia. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index - was up 3% year-over-year in June, down from 7% a year earlier. Barkin’s prepared remarks focused largely on whether a recession is imminent.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Thomas Barkin, ” Barkin, Barkin, Barkin’s Organizations: Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Richmond Federal, Fed Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, Virginia, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Markets brace for BOE as China PMI cheers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOE is leaning toward a 25 basis point hike after the inflation gods took some pity on the UK last month. Investors and economists will be sure to inspect the BOE's growth and inflation forecasts for indications of just how sticky the central bank thinks inflation has become. Not to be overshadowed by monetary policy, earnings reports roar back into focus on Thursday with Apple (AAPL.O) at the forefront. China kicks off a long line of PMI releases today with better-than-expected services activity, giving markets a bit of good news after disappointing data on Monday. In Japan, the stock market continued to feel the drag from U.S. chip firms on Thursday morning, with the Nikkei (.N225) seeing broad-based losses.

Persons: Hollie Adams, Brigid Riley, BOE, Jerome Powell isn't, hasn't, Stryker, Fed's Barkin, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Bank of, CPI, Reuters Graphics, ECB, Apple, Moderna, PMI, HK, Nikkei, Royce, Infineon, Adidas AG, BMW, Fed's, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, United States, China, Japan, U.S, Expedia, France, Italy, Sweden, Spain, Germany, Euro

WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin said Friday he is comfortable with further interest rate increases if coming data does not show that weakening demand for goods and services is feeding through to slower inflation. "I am still looking to be convinced of the plausible story that slowing demand returns inflation relatively quickly" to the 2% target, Barkin said in comments prepared for delivery to the Maryland Government Finance Officer Association. Many investors now expect the central bank to resume rate increases at its meeting in July. But he did say the focus remained on returning "stubbornly persistent" inflation to the Fed's 2% target, from a current level more than twice that. "The ’70s provides a clear lesson: If you back off inflation too soon, inflation comes back stronger, requiring the Fed to do even more, with even more damage," Barkin said.

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, I’m, Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: Richmond Federal, Maryland Government, Association, Thomson Locations: U.S

May 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The onshore yuan traded weaker than 7.00 per dollar for the eighth straight day, as markets position for another hike in U.S. interest rates and potential policy easing from Beijing. The dollar nudged 141 yen before closing slightly lower on the day, with traders' hawkish Fed forecasts relative to the Bank of Japan's policy outlook again keeping dollar bulls on the front foot. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures pointed to gains on Wall Street of up to 0.5% on Tuesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Barkin said he remained open-minded on whether the Fed at its June 13-14 policy meeting should raise the benchmark policy rate for an 11th straight time or leave it at the current range between 5.00% and 5.25%. I do wonder whether we're not going to need more impact on demand to bring inflation down to where we need to go," Barkin said, laying out a potential case for further rate increases. Barkin said he is comfortable overall with the Fed's move earlier this month to a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach after having raised the policy rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022 in an effort to lower the highest inflation in 40 years. "I'm still seeing data that suggests a hot job market and enduring inflation," he said. "I continue to believe that inflation will last longer than perhaps market measures of inflation compensation would suggest.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he's still waiting for inflation "to crack"
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Inflation may be falling but it is yet to do so at a rate commensurate with inflation falling back to the Fed's 2% goal, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday. "I'm waiting for inflation to crack...It's moving in the right direction...but in the absence of a month or two months or three months with inflation at our target it's hard to make the case that we're compellingly headed there," Barkin said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing byOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: The perils of not keeping up with Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That's been Asia's market reaction to the Fed chief's warning on faster hikes and higher rates. Fed fund futures took Powell at his hawkish word and now imply a 70% chance the Fed will hike by 50bp this month, up from just 9% a month ago. JPMorgan noted Powell's focus on the "totality" of data places a lot of weight on Friday's payrolls figures and next week's CPI. Essentially, the cost of not keeping up with the Fed can be a much weaker currency and a greater risk of imported inflation. ADP employment and trade figures- Bank of Canada announcement at 1500 GMTEditing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

March 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Given all that, it is maybe surprising that Wall Street's three main indexes 'only' fell between 1% and 1.5%. The RBA raised rates by 25 bps as expected on Tuesday to 3.60%, the highest in more than a decade. But its dovish outlook caught markets flat-footed, and the Australian dollar plunged 2%. Trade activity fell in February, reflecting weak global and domestic demand, but trade with Russia boomed.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he could see rates at 5.5%-5.75%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he could envision a scenario where the central bank pushes the U.S. benchmark policy interest rate to the 5.5%-5.75% range that some in financial markets are now betting it will. Barkin said it's "entirely possible" that inflation cools faster than he expects, which would imply a shallower rate path. "But I think it's entirely possible that it persists, which would require us to do more," he added. By this time next year, Barkin said, he does not expect the Fed to have started any rate cuts. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie Adler and Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he doesn't see case for a rate pause now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he does not understand the case for pausing interest rates now, although delivering rate increases in smaller increments means that if the Fed does end up going too far it won't have gone much too far. Rates are currently restrictive, meaning that they are slowing the economy, but the Fed still needs to "feel" its way to a level of rates that is high enough to bring inflation back down, Barkin said at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Barkin calls for deliberate rate hikes to fight 'exhausting' inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Policymakers have forecast "additional rate increases" and have been clear "we don’t anticipate rate cuts this year," he said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred year-over-year gauge was 5.4% in January, an increase from the 5.3% pace in December. The Fed's target is 2% inflation. Barkin said he is not sure that the strength in spending that bolstered inflation is sustainable. That's putting some upward pressure on inflation, he said, as workers ask for more pay.

While the Fed settled for a quarter-percentage-point rise, it also said "ongoing increases" would push the policy rate as high as needed. Recent data also showed inflation continuing to slow, though by less than expected. Today's 4.5%-4.75% policy rate is its highest since the eve of the housing crisis in 2007. "I don't see that indicating to me that we're slowing the economy," Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said of recent data, including strong retail sales and job growth. Richmond Fed's Barkin, by contrast, said he took little "signal" from recent data, anticipating inflation would continue falling.

The conventional wisdom holds that a resurgent China will be inflationary for the global economy as demand for energy, commodities and resources increases. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is on course for its third weekly fall, a cold reality check on the heels of a five-week winning streak. Chinese stocks are also on track for a third weekly fall, snapping a winning run of four. There are already indications that the outlook for Sands China is brightening - gambling revenue in Macau surged more than 80% in January and shares of Macau gaming companies like Sands China have more than doubled in the past three months. chartThe People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been ramping up liquidity injections this year to assist the post-COVID recovery, and loan growth is expected to continue also.

☆ Fed's Barkin says inflation risks still outweigh others
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"It's about as expected," Barkin said of the report as he cautioned that it will take a while for inflation to get back down near the Fed's 2% goal. By the Fed's preferred measure, inflation is still running at a 5.0% annual rate. "Inflation is normalizing but it's coming down slowly," Barkin said. "I just think there's gonna be a lot more inertia, a lot more persistence to inflation than maybe we'd all want." "If inflation settles, maybe we don't go quite as far but if inflation persists at levels far above our target then maybe we'll have to do more," he said.

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, February 8, 2023. Crude prices eased, with gold firmer as the dollar index fell 0.18%, while MSCI's U.S.-centric index of stock performance in 47 countries (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. China's blue chips (.CSI300) rose 1.3%, pulling away from a one-month trough, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) gained 1.6%. Crude prices eased as oil infrastructure appeared to have escaped serious damage from the earthquake that devastated parts of Turkey and Syria, while U.S. inventories swelled and investors worried about central bank rate hikes. Gold prices rose for a fourth straight session as the dollar faltered, even as Fed officials indicated more rate hikes are warranted to rein in inflation.

EARLY WARNING SIGNSAfter years of tame inflation, Fed officials and other central bankers say they have faced a chain of disruptive events beyond their control ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war. The central bank has made conservative estimates on inflation despite Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Even as some economists say an inflation peak could now be in sight, central bankers remain far from taming inflation. The concern among some central bankers is that politicians will respond by raising public spending and so aggravate the inflation pressure that their rate-hike cure is intended to heal. If that were to happen, central bankers “would have to reverse course to prevent the debt market from becoming more disorderly," Goodhart told Reuters.

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar on the jobs line
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Tracking yields lower, the dollar is heading towards the weekend down heavily on the yen for the week and eyeing smaller losses on the euro and most other currencies. The next test is Friday morning's U.S. jobs report, where a downside surprise could rip the dollar down further. Stock buying, rocketing local rates and the retreat in the dollar also seem to have finally given a bid to the Hong Kong dollar , which has bounced from the weak end to the middle of its trading band. Limits on withdrawals from a $69 billion unlisted Blackstone trust after large redemptions hint at losses and stresses in global portfolios. People familiar with the matter said most of the redemptions came from Asian investors needing the cash.

WASHINGTON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's fight to lower inflation "may lead to a downturn" as the central bank's interest rate increases are "challenged" by still-high consumer savings, still-tight labor markets and ongoing supply problems, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday. In the meantime, even as some parts of the economy operate more normally, others remain changed by the pandemic in ways that make the Fed's inflation fight harder. "If we back off for fear of a downturn, inflation comes back even stronger and requires even more restraint," he said. Barkin's prepared remarks did not indicate where he thinks that "terminal" level may rest, but made clear the Fed would succeed in its inflation fight. "We are doing what it takes to get inflation back to our 2% target," Barkin said.

☆ Fed's Barkin sees 'potentially a higher end point' for rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 4 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin on Friday said he is ready to act more "deliberatively" on consideration of the pace of future U.S. interest rate hikes, but said rates could continue rising for longer and to a higher end point than previously expected. And I think the implication of that is probably a slower rate of pace of rate increases, a longer pace of rate increases and potentially a higher end point," Barkin said in the interview. "The labor market remains tight, and you can point to the unemployment rate. You can point to wages," Barkin said. "I do think the labor market remains tight and that means there's still more work to do."

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