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Raisi’s Death Threatens New Instability for Iran
  + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Steven Erlanger | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The sudden death of Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, opens a new chapter of instability just as the increasingly unpopular Islamic Republic is engaged in selecting its next supreme leader. Mr. Raisi, 63, had been considered a prime candidate, especially favored by the powerful Revolutionary Guards. But given fears of instability at a time when the Islamic Republic is facing internal protests, a weak economy, endemic corruption and tensions with Israel, analysts expect little change in Iran’s foreign or domestic policies. Mr. Khamenei has set the direction for the country, and any new president will not alter it much. The system is “already on a trajectory to make sure that the successor of the supreme leader is completely in line with his vision for the future of the system,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director at the International Crisis Group.
Persons: Ebrahim Raisi, Mr, Raisi, Ali Khamenei, Khamenei, , Ali Vaez Organizations: Revolutionary Guards, Crisis Locations: Republic, Islamic Republic, Israel, Iran
The sudden death of Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, opens a new chapter of instability just as the increasingly unpopular Islamic Republic is engaged in selecting its next supreme leader. Mr. Raisi, 63, had been considered a prime candidate, especially favored by the powerful Revolutionary Guards. Even before the helicopter crash that killed Mr. Raisi, the regime had been consumed with internal political struggles as the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85, the longest-serving head of state in the Middle East, is in declining health. But given the Islamic Republic is facing internal protests, a weak economy, endemic corruption and tensions with Israel, analysts expect little change in Iran’s foreign or domestic policies. Ayatollah Khamenei has set the direction for the country, and any new president will not alter it much.
Persons: Ebrahim Raisi, Mr, Raisi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Khamenei, , Ali Vaez Organizations: Revolutionary Guards, Crisis Locations: Republic, Islamic Republic, Israel, Iran
As much as $300 billion in Russian assets, frozen in the West since the invasion of Ukraine, is piling up profits and interest income by the day. Now, Europe and the United States are considering how to use those gains to aid the Ukrainian military as it wages a grueling battle against Russian forces. There has been a debate for months about whether it would be legal or even wise to confiscate the frozen assets altogether. They argue that confiscation would be a bad precedent, a violation of sovereignty and could lead to legal challenges, financial instability and retaliatory seizures of Western assets abroad. But proposals to seize and use the profits earned on those Russian assets — the interest on accumulated cash stemming from the sanctions, said Euroclear, a financial services company — are gaining considerable ground.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Euroclear Organizations: Russian, European Central Bank Locations: West, Ukraine, Europe, United States, Britain, France, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia
On Today’s Episode:Biden Says the U.S. Will Not Supply Israel With Weapons to Attack Rafah, by Erica L. GreenWith a Gaza Cease-Fire in the Balance, Netanyahu Maneuvers to Keep Power, by Steven ErlangerStormy Daniels Returns to the Stand, by Matthew HaagJohnson Survives Greene’s Ouster Attempt as Democrats Join G.O.P. to Kill It, by Catie Edmondson, Carl Hulse and Kayla Guo
Persons: Biden, Erica L, Netanyahu, Steven Erlanger Stormy Daniels, Matthew Haag Johnson, Catie Edmondson, Carl Hulse, Kayla Guo Organizations: Will, Weapons, G.O.P Locations: U.S, Gaza
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, is known as a man who likes to play for time and postpone big decisions. But he may not be able to do that much longer. Domestically, his coalition partners on the far right threaten to break up the government if he agrees to a cease-fire and does not try to clear Hamas out of Rafah, in southern Gaza. Militarily, the strategic logic is to complete the dismantling of Hamas by taking Rafah and controlling the border with Egypt. But diplomatically, his allies, especially the United States, are pushing him to agree on a cease-fire, and skip Rafah and the potential civilian casualties a large-scale operation would cause.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Locations: Rafah, Gaza, Egypt, United States
Jenny Erpenbeck, now 57, was 22 in 1989, when the Berlin Wall cracked by accident, then collapsed. She was having a “girls’ evening out,” she said, so she had no idea what had happened until the next morning. The country she knew, the German Democratic Republic, or East Germany, remains a crucial setting for most of her striking, precise fiction. It is now on the shortlist for the International Booker Prize and considered a favorite to win the award late next month. In 2017, James Wood, The New Yorker’s book critic, called “Go, Went, Gone” underappreciated and predicted that Ms. Erpenbeck would win the Nobel Prize “in a few years.”
Persons: Jenny Erpenbeck, , , International Booker, James Wood, Erpenbeck Organizations: German Democratic, International, International Booker Prize, East Locations: German Democratic Republic, East Germany, Soviet, East German, Germany
After weeks of delays, negotiations and distractions, Israel appeared to hint this week that its assault of Rafah — a city teeming with displaced persons above ground and riddled with Hamas tunnels below — was all but inevitable. In what some analysts and residents of the city saw as a sign of preparations for an invasion, an Israeli military official on Tuesday gave some details that include relocating civilians to a safe zone a few miles away along the Mediterranean coast. Just a day earlier, Israeli warplanes bombed Rafah, increasing fears among some of the civilians sheltering there that a ground assault would soon follow. Such indicators that Israel may be preparing an invasion, said Marwan Shaath, a 57-year-old resident of Rafah, “are terrifying and mean they may really be close to starting an operation.” Mr. Shaath, who lives in Gaza but is employed by Hamas’s Palestinian rivals in the occupied West Bank, added, “Our bags have been packed for months now for the time of the evacuation.”Israel insists that a push into Rafah is necessary for achieving its goals of eliminating the militants sheltering in a network of tunnels beneath the city, capturing or killing Hamas leaders presumed to be there and ensuring the release of the remaining hostages captured during the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks on Israel.
Persons: Israel, Marwan Shaath, Mr, Shaath Organizations: West Bank Locations: Rafah, Israel, Gaza
That represents a moment of great risk, with key questions still to answer, they say. Or given the relatively paltry results — almost all the drones and missiles were intercepted by Israel and the United States — will it feel the need to strike again? And will Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, see the strong performance by his country’s air defenses, in cooperation with allies, as a sufficient response? Or will he choose to escalate further with an attack on Iran itself? “But in doing so, the shadow war it has been waging with Israel for years now threatens to turn into a very real and very damaging conflict,” one that could drag in the United States, he added.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, , , Ali Vaez Organizations: United, Crisis Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, United States
That represents a moment of great risk, with key questions still to answer, they say. Or given the relatively paltry results — almost all of the drones and missiles were intercepted by Israel and the United States — will it feel obligated to strike again? And will Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, see the strong performance by his country’s air defenses as a sufficient response? Or will he choose to escalate further with an attack on Iran itself? “But in doing so, the shadow war it has been waging with Israel for years now threatens to turn into a very real and very damaging conflict,” one that could drag in the United States, he said.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, , , Ali Vaez Organizations: United, Crisis Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Syria, United States
Israel’s bombing of an Iranian Embassy building in Damascus, which killed senior Iranian military and intelligence officials, is a major escalation of what has long been a simmering undeclared war between Israel and Iran. Iran promises major retaliation, but neither Israel nor Iran wants a major shooting war, given the stakes for both countries. Even so, the danger of a miscalculation is ever-present, as both countries press for advantage in Gaza and southern Lebanon. For Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who presumably approved such a sensitive attack, the successful elimination of such key Iranian military figures is a political coup. It comes at a time when demonstrations calling for his resignation have increased in intensity, as the war against Hamas drags on and Israeli hostages remain in Gaza.
Persons: Iran’s, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Iranian Embassy Locations: Iranian, Damascus, Israel, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen
Relations between President Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel appear to have sunk to a new low, with both men pressed hard by domestic politics and looming elections. Mr. Biden is facing outrage from global allies and his own supporters about the toll of civilian deaths in the war against Hamas and Israel’s restrictions on allowing food and medicine into Gaza amid critical shortages. On Monday, Mr. Biden allowed the U.N. Security Council to pass a resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, as the U.S. ambassador abstained rather than vetoing the measure, as the United States had done in the past. In response, Mr. Netanyahu, who is trying to keep his own far-right coalition government in power, called off a planned high-level delegation to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials to discuss alternatives to a planned Israeli offensive into Rafah, the southern Gaza city where more than a million people have sought refuge. Mr. Netanyahu, however, allowed his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, to remain in Washington for talks with top Biden administration officials.
Persons: Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Mr, Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant Organizations: . Security, Biden Locations: Gaza, U.S, United States, Washington, Rafah
Israel, though heavily dependent on support from the United States, Germany and other Western nations, has been noticeably out of step with them when it comes to relations with Russia during its war of conquest in Ukraine. Long before Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, the country refused Ukrainian requests to send arms or to apply widespread sanctions on Russia, including stopping flights to the country. Despite the eagerness of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, himself Jewish, to visit the country and show solidarity after the attack, he has never made the trip. The reasons reflect Israel’s unique security needs and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s delicate relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a primary supporter of Israel’s enemies in the region whom Israel cannot afford to offend. As Israel’s war with Hamas enters its sixth month, Mr. Netanyahu needs Mr. Putin’s good will to help constrain Iran in particular and to continue to strike Iranian targets in Syria while trying to avoid harming the forces Russia maintains there.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, Benjamin Netanyahu’s, Vladimir V, Putin, Netanyahu Organizations: Hamas Locations: Israel, United States, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, Long, Gaza, Iran, Syria
The appointment on Thursday of Muhammad Mustafa as the new prime minister of the Palestinian Authority was supposed to be a nod to international demands for a more technocratic and less corrupt administration. But Mr. Mustafa, 69, who was appointed by Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the authority, seems destined to fall short of producing the “revitalized Palestinian Authority” that President Biden has called for, several analysts said in interviews Thursday. A senior adviser to the president, Mr. Mustafa represents neither a break with the past nor a threat to the power wielded by Mr. Abbas, who at 88 is widely unpopular among Palestinians, particularly since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. “There won’t be any actual change,” said Nasser al-Qudwa, a former foreign minister of the Palestinian Authority who fell out with Mr. Abbas. Particularly critical, they say, will be the choices for ministers of the interior, finance and foreign affairs, all of whom are close to the authority’s president.
Persons: Muhammad Mustafa, Mustafa, Mahmoud Abbas, Biden, Mr, Abbas, , Nasser Organizations: Palestinian Authority, World Bank, Palestine Investment Fund Locations: Palestinian, Gaza, Palestine
Lupita Nyong'o wore an icy blue Armani Privè gown at the 2024 Oscars. AdvertisementLupita Nyong'o dazzled at the 2024 Oscars in an icy blue Armani Privè gown that was inspired by the dress she wore at the awards a decade earlier. Lupita Nyong'o poses in a pale blue gown in the press room at the 86th annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on March 2, 2014 in Hollywood, California. AdvertisementNyong'o is not the only celebrity to wear an outfit that was inspired by a previous look to the 2024 Oscars. Marlee Matlin's sparkly purple gown at the 2024 Oscars was a tribute to the lavender dress she wore at the 1987 awards.
Persons: Lupita Nyong'o, Marlee Matlin, , dazzled, Zanna Roberts Rassi, Oscar, Jason LaVeris, WireImage, Micaela Erlanger, Erlanger, Marlee, Sarah Morris, Bob Riha, Matlin Organizations: Service, Dolby Theatre Locations: Hollywood , California
It was a private dinner in a Parisian garden on the Boulevard St. Germain, meant to cement the important personal relationship between the leaders of France and Germany. Barely disguised insults between them in recent days have pointed to deeper differences over Ukraine, how to confront and contain an aggressive Russia and how to manage an increasingly polarized United States. This week, while visiting Prague, Mr. Macron repeated his refusal to rule out Western troops in Ukraine, a suggestion that surprised his allies who want to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia. Germany, especially, pushed back. Mr. Macron replied in kind.
Persons: Germain, Olaf Scholz, , Emmanuel Macron muttered, Macron Locations: France, Germany, Ukraine, Russia, United States, Prague
The NATO Welcoming Sweden Is Larger, More Determined
  + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Steven Erlanger | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
BERLIN — Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago was an enormous shock to Europeans. Used to 30 years of post-Cold War peace, they had imagined European security would be built alongside a more democratic Russia, not reconstructed against a revisionist imperial war machine. There was no bigger shock than in Finland, with its long border and historical tension with Russia, and in Sweden, which had dismantled 90 percent of its army and 70 percent of its air force and navy in the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the decision by Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, to try to destroy a sovereign neighbor, both Finland and Sweden rapidly decided to apply to join the NATO alliance, the only clear guarantee of collective defense against a newly aggressive and reckless Russia. With Finland having joined last year, and the Hungarian Parliament finally approving Sweden’s application on Monday, Mr. Putin now finds himself faced with an enlarged and motivated NATO, one that is no longer dreaming of a permanent peace.
Persons: BERLIN, Vladimir V, Putin Organizations: Soviet Union, NATO, Finland Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Soviet, Hungarian
For an Israeli settlement that has become such a resounding symbol of religious and right-wing politics in the West Bank, Homesh is not much to look at. They live part time here amid the ruins and rubbish of a hilltop settlement ripped down in 2005 by the Israeli army and police. It is one of four West Bank settlements dismantled when Israel pulled all of its troops and settlements out of Gaza. The decision to dismantle them is now being challenged by the more religious and right-wing ministers in the government of Benjamin Netanyahu. They are agitating to settle more land in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and even remove Palestinians from Gaza to resettle there.
Persons: Homesh, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: West Bank Locations: Bank, Israel, Gaza, Washington
Two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States has the capacity to keep Kyiv supplied with the weapons, technology and intelligence to fend off a takeover by Moscow. But Washington is now perceived around Europe to have lost its will. That is the essence of the conundrum facing Ukraine and the NATO allies on the dismal second anniversary of the war. The sanctions that were supposed to bring Russia’s economy to its knees — “the ruble almost is immediately reduced to rubble,” President Biden declared in Warsaw in March 2022 — have lost their sting. Income from oil exports is greater than it was before the invasion.
Persons: Russia’s, Biden, Organizations: Kyiv, NATO Locations: Ukraine, United States, Moscow, Washington, Europe, Warsaw, Russian
Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicOver the past few weeks, a growing sense of alarm across Europe over the future of the continent’s security has turned into outright panic. As Russia advances on the battlefield in Ukraine, the U.S. Congress has refused to pass billions of dollars in new funding for Ukraine’s war effort and Donald Trump has warned European leaders that if they do not pay what he considers their fair share toward NATO, he would not protect them from Russian aggression. Steven Erlanger, the chief diplomatic correspondent for The Times, discusses Europe’s plans to defend itself against Russia without the help of the United States.
Persons: Donald Trump, Steven Erlanger Organizations: Spotify, U.S . Congress, NATO, The Times Locations: Europe, Russia, Ukraine, United States
As the leaders of the West gathered in Munich over the past three days, President Vladimir V. Putin had a message for them: Nothing they’ve done so far — sanctions, condemnation, attempted containment — would alter his intentions to disrupt the current world order. Aleksei Navalny’s suspicious death in a remote Arctic prison made ever clearer that Mr. Putin will tolerate no dissent as elections approach. And the American discovery, disclosed in recent days, that Mr. Putin may be planning to place a nuclear weapon in space — a bomb designed to wipe out the connective tissue of global communications if Mr. Putin is pushed too far — was a potent reminder of his capacity to strike back at his adversaries with the asymmetric weapons that remain a key source of his power. In Munich, the mood was both anxious and unmoored, as leaders faced confrontations they had not anticipated. Warnings about Mr. Putin’s possible next moves were mixed with Europe’s growing worries that it could soon be abandoned by the United States, the one power that has been at the core of its defense strategy for 75 years.
Persons: Vladimir V, Putin, Aleksei Navalny’s, Mr, Putin’s Locations: Munich, Russia, Ukraine, Avdiivka, United States
After the Hamas invasion on Oct. 7, Doron Shabty and his wife and their two small children hid in Sderot, near the border with Gaza, and survived. A reservist in the infantry, he went into the army the next day. Mr. Shabty, 31, who sees himself on the political left, said he felt no sense of revenge, even if other soldiers did. But he said he felt certain that to restore Israelis’ faith in their country’s ability to protect them, there cannot be a return to the situation of Oct. 6. “We can’t live with an armed Gaza — we just can’t do that,” he said.
Persons: Doron Shabty, Shabty, Gazans, Locations: Sderot, Gaza
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is on his last legs, it is widely believed, and will be forced to relinquish his post once the war against Hamas in Gaza ends. And he has defied President Biden on American efforts to create a postwar path to a two-state solution, with a demilitarized Palestine alongside Israel. While opposition to a Palestinian state is popular among Israelis, defiance of Washington is considered risky. But Mr. Netanyahu, 74, known everywhere as “Bibi,” has been a remarkable dancer through the complicated choreography of Israeli politics, having survived many previous predictions of his downfall. And new elections in Israel are not legally required until late October 2026.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Biden, Netanyahu, “ Bibi, Locations: Gaza, Palestine, Israel, Palestinian, Washington
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has begun warning Germans that they should prepare for decades of confrontation with Russia — and that they must speedily rebuild the country’s military in case Vladimir V. Putin does not plan to stop at the border with Ukraine. Russia’s military, he has said in a series of recent interviews with German news media, is fully occupied with Ukraine. But if there is a truce, and Mr. Putin, Russia’s president, has a few years to reset, he thinks the Russian leader will consider testing NATO’s unity. “Nobody knows how or whether this will last,” Mr. Pistorius said of the current war, arguing for a rapid buildup in the size of the German military and a restocking of its arsenal. The alarm is growing louder, but the German public remains unconvinced that the security of Germany and Europe has been fundamentally threatened by a newly aggressive Russia.
Persons: Boris Pistorius, Russia —, Vladimir V, Putin, ” Mr, Pistorius Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Germany, Europe
Plans for Gaza’s ‘Day After’ Seem Ever Distant
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Steven Erlanger | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
As the war in Gaza grinds on, there is increasing talk of some “day after” formula for the broken territory. But that notion is an ephemeral one — there is not going to be a bright line between war and peace in Gaza, even if some sort of negotiated settlement is reached. “The whole conceit of ‘the day after’ has to be retired,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. official at the Carnegie Endowment. “It’s misleading and dangerous,” he said, because there will be no clear dividing line “between the end of Israeli military operations and a relative stability that allows people to focus on reconstruction.”There are a variety of sketchy ideas — “plans” would be too specific a word — for what happens in the aftermath of hostilities. But there is a growing understanding that any sustainable settlement would require a regional deal involving countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Qatar.
Persons: , , Aaron David Miller, Organizations: Carnegie Endowment, United Arab Locations: Gaza, Israel, U.S, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar
Lanky and lightly bearded, Jihad Imtoor is the proud son of a fighter killed in the first intifada, or uprising, against Israel. His father was a member of Fatah, the political faction that controls the Palestinian Authority. But he has had enough of its rule in the West Bank. has taken a lot from us, and it’s time for them to go.”Referring to the monument in the center of Ramallah, he said: “The P.A. is working fine to protect the four lions on Manara Square, but they cannot protect the people from Israel.”
Persons: Imtoor, Fatah, “ I’m, Organizations: Israel, Palestinian, West Bank Locations: Gaza, Ramallah, Israel
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