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The confrontation with the paramilitary Wagner Group is likely to erode confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin's government and pile more pressure on an economy already strained by Western sanctions, said Erik Meyersson, chief emerging market strategist at SEB Group. “There’s only one direction for Russian financial assets in the short term,” said Meyersson. “Even if you think this is a failed attempted coup...there’s clearly going to be a weakening of the Russian regime and that should put a sizable risk premium on Russian assets.”
Persons: Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Erik Meyersson, SEB, , , there’s Organizations: Wagner Group, SEB Group
The currency later recouped some of its losses, standing at 23.33 against the dollar by 0542 GMT, after touching a record low of 23.39 overnight during illiquid trading hours. "There is no air of panic in the markets as in previous times when there were such high losses. The central bank's net forex reserves hit an all-time low of negative $4.4 billion last month as demand surged through the elections. Investors are now awaiting the appointment of a new central bank governor to succeed Sahap Kavcioglu, who has spearheaded Erdogan's rate-slashing drive since 2021. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a U.S.-based senior finance executive, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erik Meyersson, SEB, Meyersson, Sahap Kavcioglu, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Ali Kucukgocmen, Jonathan Spicer, Gareth Jones Organizations: Lira, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Ankara, U.S
The nation is grappling with a cost of living crisis, a plunging currency and depleted foreign reserves. MARKET REACTION:LIRA: The Turkish currency touched a fresh record low of 20.105 on Monday. "In a scenario where Turkey ran out of foreign currency, lira’s value would likely collapse, inflation would explode and goods shortages could occur. A painful crisis affecting all assets is on the way, with very high inflation, very low interest rates and no net foreign reserves. Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy."
Ahead of the elections, opinion polls had showed Kilicdaroglu in the lead, and investors expected him to scrap some of Erdogan's economic policies, including costly efforts to prop up the lira currency. Longer-dated, dollar-denominated government bonds saw the biggest falls in fixed income markets, although key corporate and banking sector bonds also edged lower. Credit ratings agency Fitch said the political and economic uncertainty would continue at least until after the runoff. Banking stocks, which had surged in the week ahead of the election on hopes of a policy change, tumbled another 8% (.XBANK) to take their losses since the election to nearly 20%. The overall Istanbul bourse index (.XU100), which had notched a 6.1% fall on Monday, its largest daily percentage drop since early February, was mostly flat.
Kopf was referring to Turkey's 2002 election which came three years after a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Izmit near Istanbul that killed nearly 18,000 people. The southeast region hit by Monday's disaster accounts for a much smaller 9.3% of national GDP and a modest 8.5% of exports. Erik Meyersson, a senior economist at Handelsbanken, said it was that power that voters would now need to see working. "But if he bungles the response, perhaps this is the straw that breaks the camel's back." Magnitude 7.9 earthquake hit southern Turkey on Feb. 6Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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