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Incoming President Subianto has promised to continue the charge toward making Indonesia a high-income economy. Economic reforms passed through by the outgoing president will make the achieving Indonesia's grand vision easier. "Widodo put in place a bunch of economic reforms, the most noticeable being making it easier to hire and fire new workers. Indrawati hopes to avoid "the middle-income trap" — an economic development situation where growing economies stagnate at middle-income levels and are unable to advance to the ranks of high-income countries. Major policy reforms, she believes, will help Indonesia sidestep that.
Persons: Sri Mulyani Indrawati, CNBC's, Joko Widodo, Prabowo Subianto, Subianto, Widodo, Gareth Leather, Indrawati Organizations: Afp, Getty, country's Finance, International Monetary Fund, Defense, Capital Economics, CNBC, Lowy Institute Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia, Washington, Australian, China, Asia
According to CME FedWatch, which estimates interest rate changes based on market predictions, the size of the rate cut is a coin toss. As of Friday afternoon, there's a 51% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points and a 49% chance it'll be an extra-large 50-basis-point cut. That's because a larger rate cut makes borrowing cheaper, which tends to drive up spending and fuel price increases. Rate cuts will also eventually make it cheaper for small businesses to take out loans. A rate cut could cause a rush of buyers to enter the market in the short term, driving up prices and competition.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Michael Madowitz, she's, McTier, it'll, Mark Hamrick, Banks, Hamrick, NerdWallet, Sara Rathner Organizations: Service, Federal, CME FedWatch, Federal Reserve, Business, Washington Center for Equitable Growth, Fed, Consumer Financial, Bureau, asheffey Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, McTier
Closing the wealth gap is more difficult because a significantly larger number of white households traditionally have money in stocks and mutual funds. A separate Fed survey shows that as of 2022, about 65.6% of white households had investments in stocks, compared with 28.3% for Hispanic households and 39.2% for Black households. More than 50% of Black financial wealth is invested in pensions, the New York Fed found. In contrast, less than 30% of white financial wealth is invested in pensions, with about 50% invested in businesses, equities, and mutual funds. In April of 2020, more than 40% of Black business owners reported they were not working, compared with only 17% of white business owners.
Persons: , Janelle Jones, Jones, Walley Adeyemo, Adeyemo, ___, Charles Schwab Organizations: New York Federal Reserve Bank, Black, Washington Center for Equitable, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Associated Press, Charles, Charles Schwab Foundation, Inc, AP Locations: U.S, America
We are thought to be the country of the American dream, [where] once you start from the bottom, you move to the top. Measures of mobilityThere are two measures of mobility: relative and absolute. "We have less [relative] mobility in this country than we do in other developed nations, especially in Europe and developing European countries. "We are thought to be the country of the American dream, [where] once you start from the bottom, you move to the top. The U.S. only ranks behind England for having the world's highest university tuition fees, according to data from the OECD.
Persons: Friedman, John Friedman, that's, It's, haven't, Kreg Steven Brown, Brown, Juan Palomino, there's, Susan Thompson Buffett Organizations: Opportunity, Brown University, Harvard University, . Census Bureau, World Bank, U.S, Washington Center for Equitable, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, England, OECD, Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Biden Locations: Dallas, Texas, U.S, Europe, Denmark, China, South Africa, Morocco, American, Germany, Canada, Japan, France, Scandinavian, Nebraska
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are beginning to enter a so-called 'debt doom loop', says Cato Institute's Romina BocciaRomina Boccia, Cato Institute director of budget and entitlement policy, and Michael Linden, Washington Center For Equitable Growth senior policy fellow and former OMB executive associate director in the Biden administration, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest negotiations on Congress, the impact of a potential shutdown on the markets and economy, and more.
Persons: Cato Institute's, Boccia, Michael Linden, Biden Organizations: Cato Institute, Washington Center, Equitable Growth
A more fragmented global economy though, has limited global trade growth — which now lags global economic growth. "What is important is to do it for the benefit of everybody, and not for exclusion of others," she said. "In that sense, I would encourage all countries working collaboratively with each other to do so in the spirit of integrated economy." Virtuous cycleIn reality, this Biden-backed economic corridor would add to existing infrastructure investment for the regions involved. "And I call on our members to strengthen the global financial safety net," Georgieva separately said Sunday in a press release, released shortly after the G20 summit formally ended.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Kristalina, Evan Vucci, The, Kristalina Georgieva, Joe Biden's, Georgieva, CNBC's Martin Soong, Biden, Modi Organizations: India's, Monetary Fund, Bharat, Afp, Getty, The Biden, International Monetary Fund's, Indian, European Union and, United Arab Emirates, Biden, CNBC, IMF Locations: New Delhi, India, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Covid, Ukraine, Delhi
G20: Highlights from the first day of the Delhi summit
  + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The G20 logo is shown ahead of G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, September 8, 2023. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis Acquire Licensing RightsSept 9 (Reuters) - The G20 has adopted a consensus declaration on issues facing the bloc, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on Saturday during a summit, signalling that negotiators had resolved deep differences over the wording on the war in Ukraine. Following are excerpts from the declaration. UKRAINE- Concerning war in Ukraine, all states must act in a manner consistent with purposes and principles of UN charter in its entirety- On war in Ukraine, all states must refrain from threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state- On war in Ukraine, use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible- On Ukraine crisis, "there were different views and assessments of the situation"- Peaceful resolution of conflicts, and efforts to address crises as well as diplomacy and dialogue are critical- "Today’s era must not be of war." GRAIN/FOOD/ENERGY SECURITY- Call on Russia and Ukraine to ensure immediate and unimpeded deliveries of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers/inputs from Russia and Ukraine- Emphasizing importance of sustaining food and energy security, called for cessation of military destruction or other attacks on relevant infrastructure- Potential for high levels of volatility in food and energy markets remainsECONOMIES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS- "Will protect the vulnerable, through promoting equitable growth and enhancing macroeconomic and financial stability"- Reaffirm April 2021 exchange rate commitment made by our finance ministers and cenbank governors- We endorse financial stability board’s high-level recommendations for regulation, supervision and oversight of crypto-assets, activities- Our finance ministers, central bank governors will discuss taking forward the cryptocurrency roadmap at their meeting in October- Renew our commitment to ensure a level-playing field and fair competition by discouraging protectionism, market distorting practicesCLIMATE CHANGE- Need to accelerate efforts to phasedown unabated coal power, in line with national circumstances- Will work towards facilitating low-cost financing for developing countries to support their transition to low carbon/emissions- Will pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally through existing targets and policies, in line with national circumstances by 2030- Reiterate our commitment to take action to scale up sustainable finance- Recognise need for increased global investments to meet our climate goals of the Paris agreement- Note need of $5.8-5.9 trln in pre-2030 period required for developing countries, in particular for their needs to implement their emission targetsCompiled by Kim Coghill, Global News Desk, SingaporeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Anushree, Narendra Modi, Kim Coghill Organizations: G20, REUTERS, Indian, UN, Global, Thomson Locations: New Delhi, India, Ukraine, UKRAINE, Russia, Paris, Singapore
The US jobs market stayed strong in August
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Truck transportation also saw employment fall by 36,700.Leisure and hospitality saw a job gain of 40,000 from July to August. From wage growth to an increase in labor force participation, various data points suggest the US labor market is still strong. There were 8.8 million job openings in July after 9.2 million in June, according to new Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS data released by BLS earlier this week. "We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue," Powell said. "Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Nick Bunker, Bunker, it's, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Jonathan Fisher, Fisher, Powell Organizations: payrolls, Service, SAG, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, BLS, North America, Washington Center for Equitable Growth Locations: Wall, Silicon, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Filadendron | E+ | Getty ImagesThe overall U.S. unemployment rate declined in June, but a negative trend among Black workers may be emerging, according to the latest nonfarm payrolls report. Overall, the unemployment rate last month was 3.6%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from May, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday. However, Black workers saw their unemployment rate rise to 6% in June from 5.6% in May, making it the second consecutive monthly increase. "If the employment level for Black workers has gone down pretty significantly for the last three months, then that is a red flag." Cumming attributed the increase in unemployment among Black workers to the mechanics of the economy slowing down.
Persons: women's, Carmen Sanchez Cumming, Cumming Organizations: U.S . Department of Labor, Washington Center for Equitable
But while the Fed in 2019 was asking "'is this as strong as the labor market can get?' Fed rate hikes could have "very significant, uneven short-term impacts" on the job market. So far headline payroll employment growth remains strong. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsWANTING IT BOTH WAYSFor now, though, the Fed might mark the pandemic labor rebound as essentially complete, despite the risks. The economy needs to create about 100,000 payroll jobs a month to keep pace with population growth.
Persons: Bryan Woolston, Michael Madowitz, Raphael Bostic, Trump, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Kentucky, Center, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Washington Center for Equitable, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, BLS, American Progress, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Thomson Locations: Frankfort , Kentucky, U.S, Bryan Woolston WASHINGTON, COVID
The U.S. unemployment rate rose in May, but declined for Hispanic workers, according to the latest nonfarm payrolls report. The overall unemployment rate last month was 3.7%, a gain of 0.3 percentage point from the prior month. The unemployment rate for Hispanic men ticked lower to 4% from 4.1% in April. Meanwhile, unemployment for Black workers overall rose 0.9 percentage point to 5.6% in May from 4.7% in April. The unemployment rate also ticked higher for Black women, rising to 5.3% in May from April's rate of 4.4%.
Persons: Carmen Sanchez Cumming, it's Organizations: Labor Department, Washington Center for Equitable Growth
The advance estimate for GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the US economy is slowing. US GDP grew at annualized rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023. That's below the forecast of 2.0% and way below the 2.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2022. That's based on the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP). In short, the economy remains on the edge of a swamp – not in recession yet but close to one."
WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - Debt sustainability analyses carried out by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund should reflect the growing share of domestic debt in many developing countries' overall debt levels, World Bank President David Malpass said on Wednesday. Malpass called for urgent measures to jump-start sovereign debt restructuring efforts for the many countries that are in or near debt distress, after years of glacial progress under the Group of 20 Common Framework. Speaking at a World Bank event entitled "Breaking the Impasse in Global Debt Restructuring," Malpass said it was critical to get a better understanding of countries' total debt levels, including both domestic and external debt. Carmen Reinhart, the World Bank's previous chief economist, told the event that there were ongoing concerns about "hidden debt" and the transparency of external debt levels, including "severely underreported debt levels" owed to China, now the world's largest bilateral creditor. She said there were no publicly available data on net reserves, and questions about contingent liabilities also compounded the problem of accurately analyzing debt levels.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThere's one group of people that's being disproportionality hurt by high inflation: women. First, a jump in child care prices has started to pressure women out of the workforce. Child care inflation, which has increased 214% from 1990 to 2022, has outpaced average family income gains, which have risen 143%. Surprisingly, over 50% of parents spend over 20% of their income on child care in the US." Women and minorities are underrepresented in higher-wage industries, such as technology or finance, that are more insulated from inflation pressures, Gosai noted.
"Wage growth is decelerating less than inflation," said Kate Bahn, chief economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth in Washington. It will also incorporate new population estimates in the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived. As such January's unemployment rate will not be directly comparable to December. REVISIONS IN FOCUSThe revisions will attract attention after researchers at the Philadelphia Fed published a paper in December that suggested employment growth in the second quarter was overstated by a million jobs. Economists will be closely watching the labor force for signs whether the current pace of job growth will persist.
January's drop in Black unemployment was propelled by gains made by Black women, whose unemployment rate excluding teenagers dropped to 4.7% in January from 5.5% in December. The last time the Black unemployment rate was below 5.5% was in September 2019, while Black women last had a sub-5% unemployment rate in November 2021. She pointed to the discrimination Black people face in hiring and the increased likelihood of layoffs Black workers experience as two examples. While Black men saw a 0.2 percentage point gain between December and January, Black women added 1.1 percentage points. She said the gains in employment could be attributed at least in part to the tightness of the overall labor market.
Not everyone is celebrating, however: Jobless rates for Black women and Latino men still haven’t recovered fully from the pandemic. The unemployment rate for Black women aged 20 years and older rose to 5.5% in December, from 5.2% in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For Latino men, unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points to 4% last month, higher than the 3.1% unemployment rate in February 2020. The Fed effectThe government’s current response to inflation may also be playing a role in rising unemployment for Latino men and Black women, Bahn said. In April 2020, the Hispanic unemployment rate shot up to 18.1% after hovering at around 4% pre-pandemic, BLS data shows.
Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesThe U.S. unemployment rate declined overall in December, but rose for Black women and Hispanic men, according to the latest nonfarm payrolls report. Black women saw unemployment increased to 5.5% last month, up 0.3 percentage points from 5.2% in November, data from the Labor Department showed Friday. Overall, Black employment held steady at 5.7%, while the unemployment rate for Black men actually declined to 5.1% from 5.4% last month. The overall unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0%. And it's really disaffecting Black women and Latinx men," Holder added.
Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe unemployment rate in the U.S. declined for Hispanic workers and Black women in November, while the overall rate held steady. Hispanic workers saw unemployment dip to 3.9% last month, down from 4.2% in October, according to the Labor Department on Friday. It fell more for Black women to 5.2%, from 5.8%. Notable jobs gains last month in the leisure and hospitality sector drove the decline in the unemployment rate among Hispanic workers, Holder said. Meanwhile, strong job gains in health care and government spurred the decline in the unemployment rate among Black women.
InsiderThe US gained 263,000 nonfarm payrolls in November, better than the 200,000 economists expected. November's gain shows ongoing strength in the jobs market. There were 263,000 nonfarm payrolls added in November, according to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). But as we head to the end of 2022, the US labor market remains resilient." The "temperature is still high" in the labor market as Bunker told Insider after the last jobs report.
Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe unemployment rate for Black men ticked down in October while it rose for most other groups, but that may be because workers are dropping out of the labor force. For Black men, unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.8% a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. Though overall there is strength in the labor market, "this is not the tight labor market where people can just walk in and get a job no matter who they are." Overall Black unemployment ticked up led by Black women. In October, the unemployment rate for Black women jumped to 5.8% from 5.4% in September.
Threats to truthConsider the many benefits of having a source of trustworthy and publicly available economic data. Of course, private datasets, like those used by Opportunity Insights, the JPMorgan Chase Institute, and Earnest Research, complement federal statistics. In addition to competition from other sources, statistical agencies are facing a lack of money. Sustaining the future of statsThe good news is that statistical agencies are trying to keep up with the times. To continue producing this work, federal statistical agencies need a funding boost.
Marco Bello | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe unemployment rate among Hispanic workers dropped sharply in September, but that could be due to fewer eligible adults looking for a job. Hispanic workers saw their unemployment rate fall to 3.8% from 4.5% in August. But Hispanics saw a sharp decline in labor force participation, which tracks how many people are employed or searching for work. Many Hispanic workers do seek employment in some areas of the market heavily affected by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, she added. While Hispanic workers saw the biggest declines on a month-to-month basis, she noted that Black women have still seen the sharpest decline in labor force participation since the start of the pandemic.
How a mild US slump becomes a deep global recessionMore than 80 central banks are staring down the same problem. That followed a hike of the same size by the European Central Bank on September 8. That so many central banks share the Fed's outlook could become a huge problem. "But because they are highly synchronous across countries, they could be mutually compounding in tightening financial conditions and steepening the global growth slowdown." Central banks could be mere months away from a lose-lose scenario.
Jeenah Moon | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe August jobs report showed the U.S. unemployment rate rise across the board. Meanwhile, Black workers marked the only demographic to see their labor force participation fall. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 3.7% in August, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Black workers marked the only group that saw labor force participation decline, while their employment-population ratio, which measures what percentage of the population holds a job, also fell. "What's happened is the queue's just gotten longer so the discouraged worker effect is much more acute for Black workers."
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