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ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Investors are hoping policymakers gathering at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this month will shed light on one of the murkiest - yet fundamentally most important - tenets of monetary policy: R-star. Even the New York Fed's two most renowned R-star indicators, the Laubach-Williams model and the Holston-Laubach-Williams model, are, metaphorically speaking, miles apart. Martínez-García's estimate of short-term R-star is negative, while the New York Fed staffers' models suggest it has "increased considerably over the past year". The Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle having raised interest rates by 525 basis points to the highest since 2007. Longer-dated real bond yields have shot up to their highest level since 2009 even as market expectations for inflation and Fed rates have held steady.

Persons: Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Williams, Enrique Martínez, García, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, David Mericle, Jackson, John Williams reckons, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Kansas City Fed's, Fed, New, Dallas Fed, TD Securities, York, Dallas and New York Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Reuters, New York Times, Atlanta, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, New York, U.S, Dallas

☆ US home prices could tumble nearly 20% and Fed economists warn further rate hikes risk an even worse housing correction: 'The bubble hypothesis merits attention'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Dallas Fed economists warned of a 19.5% housing market correction in a Tuesday research report. "[I]f the observed price-to-rent ratio grows at an explosive rate relative to its fundamental-based ratio estimated with long-term interest rate and rent growth data, the bubble hypothesis merits attention," they said. For the US housing market to return to its fundamentals, they estimated that a 19.5% correction would be necessary. There were signs that the US price-to-rent ratio began to fall in third quarter as prices cooled faster than rents, they added. For now, a modest housing correction remains the baseline scenario, but the authors warned that more hawkish monetary policy could trigger a steeper correction.

☆ Falling house prices will help the Fed tame inflation – but they also increase the risk of a prolonged economic downturn
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But a housing market slowdown also increases the risk of a recession. The aggressive monetary tightening lifted the average 30-year US mortgage rate from 5.60% to 6.84% over the last three months, according to Bankrate. "A decline in home buying is one of the byproducts of tighter monetary policy," Macquarie's head of economics David Doyle told Insider. What has the Fed said about the housing market? Should borrowing costs remain too high for too long, those industries risk facing a decline in business at a time when monetary tightening is already squeezing their cash flows.

☆ A house price slump is coming. Rising unemployment could make it much worse
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Brendon O'Hagan/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesNew Zealand is at the sharp end of a global housing market squeeze that has grim ramifications for the world economy. “In an ideal world, you’ll get a bit of froth blown off the top [of house prices] and everything is fine. “A decisive increase in unemployment is a very big danger for housing markets,” said Slater of Oxford Economics. Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesA drag on the economyMost market watchers are not expecting a repeat of the 2008 housing market crash. But even a modest a fall in house prices will knock confidence, causing homeowners to cut back on spending.

☆ Home price declines will accelerate even as sales bottom out early next year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The decline in home prices will accelerate even as sales are headed for a bottom early next year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "Mortgage rates have peaked, suggesting that demand will flatten in the months ahead, albeit at an extremely depressed level. Accordingly, we expect housing starts and sales to bottom out early next year, even as the decline in home prices accelerates."

☆ US home prices could crash 20% if the Fed fails to 'thread the needle' when tightening, central bank economist finds
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US home prices could fall another 20% as mortgage rates rise, a Dallas Fed study found. The central bank has raised interest rates by 75 basis points at four consecutive meetings as it works to curb soaring prices. Homebuyer demand is expected to fall as mortgage rates climb higher, with many analysts warning Americans to brace for a major housing market correction. The housing market would suffer such a significant correction partly because it was squeezed so high before and during the pandemic. But any housing market downturn would likely be far less severe than the crash that helped to trigger the 2008 financial crisis, according to the economist.

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