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Poster of Christophe Versini for the Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella on it, on June 24, 2024. Recent polling suggests the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, or National Rally) party, led by Jordan Bardella, could win the most seats in the National Assembly, followed by the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP, or New Popular Front). French bond yields — which move inversely to prices — have been relatively contained. Even then, he added, the spread of French bond yields over their German counterparts looked set to remain higher than before Macron called the election. There is little concern over France enacting its own "Frexit," he said, with even National Rally having moved away from actively proposing leaving the euro area or the European Union.
Persons: Christophe Versini, Jordan Bardella, Magali Cohen, Emmanuel Macron, Sunday's, Giorgia Meloni, Viraj Patel, Patel, Liz, Truss, Andrew Kenningham, Macron, Kenningham, François Mitterrand, Christian Keller, CNBC's, Keller Organizations: Rassemblement National, Afp, Getty, National Assembly, Societe Generale, BNP, Vanda Research, Capital Economics, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Barclays, European Union Locations: Germany, Italy, Europe, France, Britain
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUK could shed some risk premium after the general election, analyst saysChristian Keller, head of Economics Research at Barclays, discusses the forthcoming U.K. general election and the potential aftermath for financial markets.
Persons: Christian Keller Organizations: Economics Research, Barclays
UK general election: Why the economy is the key issue
  + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Sunak will likely point to falling inflation and a strengthening economy as proof that his plan to “restore economic stability” is working. Here’s what data shows has happened to wages, living standards, the value of the pound, house prices and waiting times for medical treatment on the NHS. “Poor income growth has been an unfortunate feature of economic life in the UK over the last 15 years. On average, households now spend more than 29% of their after-tax income on rent, up from 24% in 2010, according to Zoopla, a property company. NHS waiting lists have grown steadily since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, contributing to worker shortages in the UK.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Tony Blair, Sunak, YouGov, Labour Party Keir Starmer, Jeff J Mitchell, Alastair Grant, Tom Waters, , , Nick Ridpath, Liz Truss, “ Brexit, Clare Lombardelli, Brexit Organizations: London CNN, Conservative Party of, European Union, Labour Party, Labour, National Health Service, Conservatives, Britain's, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Conservative, Bank of England, Office, National Statistics, NHS Locations: Ukraine, United Kingdom, , United States, Germany, Britain, England
The stock has another 20% rise left in it before the bubble deflates, Capital Economics predicted. That's because stocks tend to inflate rapidly right before the end of a bubble, the firm said. AdvertisementInvestors on the lookout for signs of a bubble should expect the stock market to be pumped up by another 20% before correcting, Capital Economics researchers said. According to John Higgins, Capital Economics' chief market economist, stocks look like they're in a late-stage bubble, meaning equities are in for a steep rally before the bubble eventually bursts. I think that it's a simple one really that involves a bubble inflating in the stock market," he said, pointing to the excitement for big tech.
Persons: , John Higgins, There's, I'm, we've, Higgins, Bubbles Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq
Washington CNN —Nowadays, it’s anyone’s guess when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates this year — if at all. Fed officials are meeting this week, starting Tuesday, to discuss rates and set policy. That guidance will be key for market observers who clearly have divergent views on interest rates. Forecasts from major Wall Street banks on the first rate cut are all over the place: JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expect the first cut in July, while Wells Fargo is betting on September. Some Fed policymakers, meanwhile, have even floated the possibility of a rate hike, instead of a cut.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Jerome Powell, , ” Kathleen Grace, John Towfighi, That’s, nearshoring, Alberto Ramos, Ramos, Morgan Stanley, Read, Cindy Westman, , Brian Fung, Jason Carroll, I’ll, , Westman, , Westman — Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Bank of America, CNN, Labor Department, Manufacturing, Commerce Department, Program, Social Locations: Washington, Wells, Mexico, , China, United States, Eureka , Illinois
CNN —As US supply chains decouple from China, Mexico’s manufacturing sector is emerging as a winner. Ramos said Mexico and China have been competing for the US manufacturing market for years, but amid a shifting US-China relationship, Mexico looks poised to pull ahead. Those exports were driven by manufacturing, which comprises 40% of Mexico’s economy, according to Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the US were down 20% in 2023, compared to 2022. Analysts at Morgan Stanley see the value of Mexico’s exports to the United States growing from $455 billion to about $609 billion in the next five years.
Persons: That’s, nearshoring, Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs, Ramos, Morgan Stanley, Katherine Tai, CNN’s Julia Chatterley, Tai, United States Jose Luis Gonzalez, Xeneta, Peter Sand, Jose Enrique Sevilla, John Raines, Goldman’s Ramos, Biden, Raquel Buenrostro, , Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, , Global’s, Raines, Christoffer Enemaerke, , Tesla, Elon Musk, Julio Cesar Aguilar, BYD doesn’t, RBC’s Enemaerke, Michael Nam Organizations: CNN, Manufacturing, Commerce Department, US Trade, General Motors, Ford, Reuters, Shipping, Container Trade, Xeneta, Moody’s Analytics, P Global Market Intelligence, steelworkers, , Global’s Sevilla, Macip, RBC, Getty, BYD, ” Sevilla, Monterrey Locations: China, Mexico, Canada, North America, US, Ciudad Juarez, United States, Pittsburgh, Mexican, Monterrey, , Nuevo Leon, Asia
Why gold prices are at record highsFrom central banks to Costco customers, it seems everyone is buying gold these days, reports CNN’s John Towfighi. Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. The Honest Company posted a strong fourth quarter in March.
Persons: , ” Mark Carney, , GFANZ, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, JPMorgan, CNN’s John Towfighi, China —, Read, Jessica Alba, Ramishah Maruf, Alba’s, Chuck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, European Central Bank, Glasgow Financial Alliance, UN, Bank of England, ECB, MIT, Columbia Business School, Zero Banking Alliance, United Nations, decarbonization, CNN, JPMorgan Chase, State, JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, The Honest, The Honest Company, Honest, Nasdaq Locations: New York, Glasgow, China, India, Turkey
Why gold prices are at record highs
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. Investors also regard gold as a hedge against inflation, betting bullion will retain its value when prices rise. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. Higher oil prices are likely to stoke concerns over inflation, boosting gold prices, according to the UBS research note.
Persons: China —, Ulf Lindahl, Lindahl, Morgan, JP Morgan, Janet Yellen’s, Yellen, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Wells, Richard Galanti, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, Research Associates, Moody’s, of Commerce, Costco Locations: New York, China, India, Turkey, Central, Wells Fargo
SINGAPORE – Asia-Pacific's tech sector has been growing on the back of the semiconductor boom even as other industries struggle amid global macro uncertainty, according to investment bank JPMorgan. "Tech has been recovering, that's why Asia has done reasonably well in the second half of last year. China industry benefited, North Asia obviously benefited more from it," Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan said in a media briefing on Tuesday. Global tech spending weakened in 2023 while layoffs rose, said Deloitte in a report on tech industry's 2024 outlook. The recovery in tech is significant as other industries are still struggling.
Persons: Bruce Kasman, Deloitte, Ong Sin Beng Organizations: JPMorgan, Tech, Global, Deloitte, Nvidia Locations: SINGAPORE – Asia, that's, Asia, China, North Asia, U.S
The US residential market added $2.4 trillion in value last year, listings site Redfin said. AdvertisementThe housing market in the US added $2.4 trillion last year, jumping to $47.5 trillion. Though housing demand has been dampened by stubbornly high mortgage rates, the total value of the market climbed by 5.3% from December 2022, preliminary data released by Redfin on Wednesday showed. Pandemic-era mortgage rates fell below 3%, driving a frenzy of buying in 2020 and 2021. The combination of elevated mortgage rates, high home prices and a limited pool of homes for sale means homeownership is about as unaffordable as ever.
Persons: Redfin, , aren't, Chen Zhao Organizations: Service Locations: Redfin, New York City, New Jersey, Midwest, Milwaukee, Grand Rapids, New York, Honolulu , Riverside, Denver
Read previewThe US commercial real estate market saw a steep drop in investment last year, with capital flows into the market plummeting by more than 50% to the lowest level since 2012. That brought the full-year investment total to $348 billion, a 52% decline from 2022, according to CBRE. CBRE noted a 91% year-over-year drop in direct real estate company investments to $1.4 billion in Q4, citing increased financing costs. New York took the lead with $33 billion in investment, followed by Los Angeles at $30 billion. AdvertisementThe dimming outlook for commercial real estate —offices in particular — is linked to the tighter financing conditions that many commercial landlords now face.
Persons: , CBRE, Barry Sternlicht Organizations: Service, Business, New York, Los, Starwood Capital, Capital Locations: Los Angeles
Opinion | Only America Can Save the Future
  + stars: | 2024-02-03 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Every new year Dan Wang, a technology analyst with an East Asia-based economics research firm and a gifted observer of contemporary China, writes a long, reflective letter about the year just past, mixing analysis with personal experience. But after years of Zero Covid policy, with China’s economy disappointing and its political culture constricting, Wang writes that it’s increasingly “evolved to mean emigrating from China altogether.”The lucky escapees are the ones who can move legally to Europe or America. The boldest are the ones traveling to Latin America and braving the Darien Gap to reach Mexico and then the United States; the migrant surge at our southern border, Wang notes, now includes thousands of Chinese nationals each month. He came away from the experience feeling a bit more optimistic about China’s uncertain future. “The China of the future will not look like the China ruled by old men today,” he writes, and some of the creative Chinese kids hanging out in Thailand may “do good things for the China they’ll one day inherit.”
Persons: Dan Wang, Zero, Wang, it’s, Locations: East Asia, China, Europe, America, Darien, Mexico, United States, Singapore, Japan, Thailand
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.30 million job openings in October. Job openings decreased by 168,000 in the finance and insurance industry, while real estate, rental and leasing had 49,000 fewer positions. The job openings rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.6% in September. "The current state of the labor market suggests no further recalibration is necessary to bring the labor market back into balance," said Nick Bunker, director of economics research at Indeed Hiring Lab. They also described the labor market as remaining "very competitive," and "trying to get to full staff levels."
Persons: Brian Snyder, Rubeela Farooqi, Nick Bunker, Conrad DeQuadros, November's, Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Labor, Survey, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, United Auto Workers, UAW, Comerica Bank, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, White Plains , New York, South, Midwest, New York, East, Dallas
The country's economy expanded 7.6% in the July-September quarter, trouncing estimates of a 6.8% rise, data released on Thursday showed. He had an earlier forecast growth at 6.7%. The government stuck to its 6.5% growth forecast for the year, but chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran said he was "more comfortable with an upside to this projection than before". Reuters GraphicsCitigroup revised its growth forecast for the financial year upwards by 50 basis points to 6.7% citing a pick-up in investment activity. "This reaffirms our view of sustained investment recovery," the Wall Street bank's chief India economist Samiran Chakraborty said in a note.
Persons: Ranita Roy, Saumya Kanti Ghosh, V, Anantha Nageswaran, Gross, Samiran Chakraborty, Chakraborty, Radhika Rao, Gaura Sen Gupta, Ira Dugal, Nivedita Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, State Bank of India, Reuters Graphics Citigroup, Street bank's, DBS, IDFC, Bank Economics Research, Thomson Locations: Kolkata, India
Sports tourism, as it's called, is one of the fastest-growing sectors in the travel industry, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization. "The sport tourism market will continue as long as new opportunities to play and compete exist," she said. Justin Setterfield | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesFor some countries, these events are an opportunity to raise their international standing. Patrick Smith | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesTravel + Leisure Co. and Sports Illustrated Resorts announced plans to open a network of sports-themed resorts in American college towns. Ryan Pierse | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images
Persons: Lisa Delpy Neirotti, George, Neirotti, Delpy, Justin Setterfield, Cristiano Ronaldo, Dustin Johnson, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Delpy Neirotti, Lewis Hamilton, Kym Illman, Jay Wardle, Narendra Modi, Robert Cianflone, Gianni Infantino, Major League Baseball —, Patrick Smith, GetYourGuide, Ryan Pierse Organizations: Summer, Games, Sports, United Nations World Tourism Organization, George Washington University's, Management, Sport, Padres, NFL, MLB, FIFA, Getty, CNBC Travel, Saudi Crown, Fox News, Adara, ICC Men's Cricket, The Bank of Baroda Economics Research, Narendra, MotoGP, Rugby, Las Vegas, Companies, Major League Baseball, Sports Illustrated Resorts, University of Alabama —, McLaren Technology, U.S ., CNBC, Olympic Games, Olympic Locations: Mexico City, Germany, London, Brisbane, Australia, Saudi Arabia, China, Qatar, Singapore, India, New Zealand, Indonesia, France, United States, Tuscaloosa , Alabama, U.S, New York
In a global risk survey carried out among 130 businesses last month by Oxford Economics, almost two fifths of respondents viewed the Israel-Hamas war as a very significant risk to the global economy over the next two years. "Deglobalisation and persistently higher oil prices, both of which could be triggered by an intensification of geopolitical tensions, are also fairly prominent in the latest survey," Oxford Economics researchers said. "Rising geopolitical tensions could trigger more trade restrictions across the globe, resulting in further economic fragmentation. "Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and tensions are likely to depress growth further, while adding to inflationary pressures that are beyond the control of central banks." "Early 2024 Taiwan elections will set the stage for the rest of the year.
Persons: Gil Cohen, Deglobalisation, Goldman, Roland Temple, Lazard Organizations: Hamas, magen, AFP, Getty, Oxford Economics, NATO, Oxford, Monetary Fund, Asset Management, West, Democratic Progressive Party, Kuomintang, KMT Locations: Gaza, Israel, China, Taiwan, Russia, U.S, South Africa, India, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Iran, Hormuz, United States, Beijing
Many users would ditch social media in exchange for being paid a small fee, a study found. What if there was an option where everyone else they knew would stop using social media, too? AdvertisementAdvertisementThe researchers found that users would be willing to pay $28 and $10 "to have others, including themselves, deactivate TikTok and Instagram, respectively." Social media remains a key resource for people looking for a convenient way to keep on top of updates from friends, colleagues, and current affairs. AdvertisementAdvertisementThat said, the results underscore a view that people feel compelled to use social media despite how awful it can make them feel.
Persons: , they'd Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economics Research
Buyers and sellers alike complain of a market that only gets worse the longer they wait. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe slowed-down market could have impacts across the economy, forcing some potential buyers to continue renting and influencing some potential sellers to stay put. The bank remained hopeful for a turnaround but warned of more turbulence for buyers and sellers brave enough to face the market. AdvertisementAdvertisementSellers are also forced to wait and for decreasing offersMeanwhile, sellers are left waiting as well.
Persons: , Chen Zhao, Redfin, Lawrence Talej, Yonatan Hochstein, they've, We've, Desiree Edgington, She's, Edgington, Zoe Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Wall Street, National Association of Realtors, Bank of America Locations: Richmond , Virginia, New Jersey, Kansas, zrosenberg@insider.com
Most US households are $40,000 shy of the needed income, with first-time buyers impacted the hardest. Surging costs and skyrocketing mortgage rates mean that Americans need to make $114,627 a year to purchase a typical property, the highest income level on record. This comes as mortgage rates were swung upwards by a tighter Federal Reserve, which sharply increased interest rates to combat inflation. "In a homebuyer's ideal world, rising mortgage rates would push demand and home prices down enough to make up for high interest payments. Average American households do not earn enough to meet these rising costs, and are about $40,000 shy of the needed income level, when looking at last year's data.
Persons: Redfin, , that's, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Reserve
Jordanian Dinar, Yuan, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Pound and Riyals banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. JP Morgan analyst Sin Beng Ong in a note on the pressure it was putting on emerging Asia markets. RICHARD MCGUIRE, HEAD OF RATES STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON:“The markets reflect effectively flying blind because the models don't work, everybody's been calling for a recession that just simply refuses to arrive. "Our view is that the U.S. economy slows into next year... so from that perspective, at some point, we expect it (bond market selloff) to normalise." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, BENG ONG, JP Morgan, Sin Beng Ong, RICHARD MCGUIRE, everybody's, you've, VIKRAM AGGARWAL, ” JUAN VALENZUELA, ARTEMIS, , ” NICK NELSON Organizations: REUTERS, OF, JPMORGAN, RABOBANK, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, ASIA, SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S
The solution to keep prices under control seems fairly simple: Just build more housing. For a time, sprawl boosted housing supply and accommodated newcomers to the West: Nearly 60 million more people live in the region now compared with the 1950s. Running out of landWhen the economy crashed in 2008, housing construction screeched to a halt. All this red tape has caused a serious slowdown in much-needed housing construction. Build, build, buildDespite the unique challenges of building in the paradoxically wide-open West, some cities have been able to break through.
Persons: Mike Segrest, Megan Lawson, Kyle Stevens, Carrier Johnson, , Lawson, Land Management . Nevada Sen, Catherine Cortez Masto, Kyle Roerink, Hillary Schieve, Schieve, Howard Blackson, Kyle Paoletta's Organizations: Forest Service, Southern Ute, Marin Headlands, Bureau, Land Management ., Water Network, Biggest, Biggest Little City, Housing Administration, Harper's Magazine, New York Magazine, Oasis Locations: Colorado, Durango ., it's, Animas, San Juan Mountains, Durango, Las Vegas, Montana, Houston, Minneapolis, Rocky, Phoenix, Denver, Mississippi, San Diego, San Jose , California, Marin County, San Francisco, Santa Fe , New Mexico, Jackson , Wyoming, California, Land Management . Nevada, Vegas, Reno , Nevada, Reno, Cumulatively, Biggest Little, Summit, Washington
The US dollar is losing some influence in the oil markets, according to JPMorgan. The correlation between the USD's strength and oil prices has weakened, per the bank's research. The analyst drew the conclusion by looking at the impact of a strengthening dollar on oil prices. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe relationship exists because the dollar is traditionally inversely correlated to oil prices — meaning that when the greenback's value rises, oil prices fall, and vice versa. This trend is because more oil is now being transacted in non-dollar currencies, JPMorgan said in its report, such as the Chinese yuan.
Persons: Natasha Kaneva, Kaneva, Jahangir Aziz, , It's Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Brent, Reuters, Russia Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Russia, Ukraine, Washington
India's annual retail inflation (INCPIY=ECI) rose sharply to 7.44% in July from 4.87% the previous month. Reuters Graphics"The spurt in CPI inflation in July 2023 was on expected lines, however, 7.44% retail inflation was totally unexpected," said Devendra Pant, economist at India Ratings. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, hit a staggering 11.51% in June as compared with 4.49% in June. Retail food inflation was at its highest since January 2020. Even a moderate rise in food inflation tends to anger voters and Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ Research, said further measures may be required from the government.
Persons: Devendra Pant, Research's Gaura Sen Gupta, Pant, Narendra Modi's, Dhiraj Nim, Nikunj Ohri, Chizu Nomiyama, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, DELHI, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, ANZ Research, Thomson Locations: Kolkata, India
American price elasticity stretched to the limit
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The United States may be over the hump on inflation, but consumers aren’t acting like it. Lingering restraint will stretch the power of price elasticity to its limits. Similarly, PepsiCo’s (PEP.O) 14% increase in North American prices of Mountain Dew, Tropicana orange juice and other beverages cost it 4% in quarterly sales. Strong appetites for Oreos and Wheat Thins lifted Mondelez International’s (MDLZ.O) sales 2% in the United States, Canada and Mexico, even as prices climbed 10%. They have climbed 3.5% from a year earlier, surpassing the 3.2% annual increase in the Consumer Price Index.
Persons: Mondelez, Darden, Ricardo Cardenas, Laxman Narasimhan, Marriott, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, of Michigan, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital, Procter & Gamble, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: States, Dew, United States, Canada, Mexico, American
Three of the six central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies that met in July hiked rates, while the other three kept their benchmarks unchanged, Reuters data showed. "Chile announced a larger-than-expected rate cut, and is the first emerging market to jump on the easing bandwagon in the current cycle," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo. Twelve out of 18 central banks in the Reuters sample of developing economies had interest rate setting meetings in July. However, nine central banks opted to keep policy unchanged, with rate hikes coming from Turkey and Russia - two countries whose monetary policy circles are determined by domestic dynamics rather than global trends. On the rate cutting side, emerging market central banks have seen three cuts reducing interest rates by 160 bps in total.
Persons: Christian Keller, Costa, Charu, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, David Evans Organizations: LONDON, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Barclays, Saxo, Thomson Locations: Chile, Turkey, Russia, Latin America, Costa Rica, Uruguay
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