Last year, as policymakers relentlessly raised interest rates to combat the fastest inflation in decades, forecasters began talking as though a recession — economic contraction rather than growth — was not a question of “if” but “when.” Possibly in 2022.
As recently as December, less than a quarter of economists expected the United States to avoid a recession, a survey found.
But the year is more than half over, and the recession is nowhere to be found.
Not even in the housing market, the industry that is usually most sensitive to rising interest rates, which has shown signs of stabilizing after slumping last year.
All of which is leading economists, after a year spent being surprised by the resilience of the recovery, to wonder whether a recession is coming at all.
Persons:
”, Diane Swonk
Organizations:
KPMG US
Locations:
United States