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But the steady ebbing of inflation hasn't translated into good news for either President Joe Biden or the Federal Reserve when it comes to public opinion. They're just going up at a slower rate," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week when asked at a research conference about common public misconceptions. Inflation expectations have fallen, according to a New York Fed survey but remain well above the central bank's 2% target. Both Waller and Fed Governor Lisa Cook took note of the public mood last week in similar comments about the expectation for prices to fall, which they don't frequently do. Reuters GraphicsBut if inflation readings continue to show a slowdown, the Fed could put more weight on sustaining the strength of the job market.

Persons: Joe Biden, They're, Christopher Waller, That's, Biden, Jeff Jones, Waller, Lisa Cook, Derek Tang, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, Democratic, Gallup, Reuters Graphics, New, FOCUS, Biden, Thomson Locations: U.S, shutdowns

☆ Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve losses breached the $100 billion mark, central bank data released on Thursday showed, and they're likely to go a lot higher before the red ink stops. While there's considerable uncertainty around how it will all play out, some observers believe Fed losses, which began a year ago, could eventually as much as double before abating. William English, a former top central bank staffer now at Yale University, said he sees a "peak" loss of around $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, Derek Tang of forecasting firm LH Meyer said the loss is likely to be between $150 billion and $200 billion by next year. In 2022, the Fed handed back $76 billion, after returning $109 billion in 2021.

Persons: William English, Derek Tang, Meyer, James Bullard, Louis Fed, that's, What's, John Williams, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Yale University, Fed, Treasury, . Bank, Securities, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

Colombian-born Kugler, whose research has focused on labor markets, is the first Latina to join the Fed Board in its 109-year history. The vote was 53-45, with a few Republicans supporting a nomination that was championed by Democratic Senator Bob Menendez. The Senate on Wednesday also confirmed Fed Governor Philip Jefferson as Fed vice chair and Fed Governor Lisa Cook to a second term. Jefferson's success as vice chair will hinge on his ability to help Powell manage that process. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao and Timothy GardnerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adriana Kugler, Jonathan Ernst, Kugler, Bob Menendez, Menendez, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Cook, Jerome Powell, Powell, Michael Feroli, Jefferson, she'll, Derek Tang, Tang, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Governors, Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Senate, Bank, Fed Board, Democratic, Wednesday, Jefferson, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Cuban, United States, U.S

He said in the statement released by the St. Louis Fed that the regional bank "is well-positioned for ongoing success and impact." The St. Louis Fed said Kathleen O'Neill Paese, the regional bank's first vice president and chief operating officer, will act as interim president. The regional bank said its search committee will look nationally for a new leader, noting that its search will be "robust, transparent, fair and inclusive." While they operate under the oversight of the Board of Governors in Washington, regional Fed banks are quasi-private institutions technically owned by member banks. With Bullard's exit, there will be two unfilled regional Fed bank slots.

Persons: James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed, Mitchell, Daniels, Jr, doesn't, Tim Duy, Duy, Derek Tang, LH Meyers, Wrightson ICAP, Kathleen Bostjancic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Louis Fed's, Esther George, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, U.S, Purdue, St, School of Business, Federal, Macro, Fed, Purdue University, Minneapolis Fed, Nationwide, Brookings Institution, Governors, Kansas City Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Indiana, St, Washington

☆ Fed monetary policy mechanics would be tested by US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That's because U.S. government bonds are the key to how the central bank sets its short-term interest rate target. Anything that gums up the Treasuries market could scramble those mechanics. Setting a baseline for short-term interest rates via its reverse repo facility in effect borrows cash from money market funds in transactions collateralized with government bonds. The Fed currently owns about $5.2 trillion in Treasury debt, and the bulk of it would be fine at the start of a default. And that's where pricing an impaired Treasury for Fed operations gets tricky.

☆ Banks sought record Fed liquidity in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That reverses a substantial portion of the balance sheet reduction accomplished since last summer. The bank lending facility is backstopped by $25 billion from the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund. Record discount window borrowing was somewhat unexpected as many analysts had thought banks would instead gravitate to the new lending facility. That said, some saw the discount window borrowing surge as a positive by itself. Reuters GraphicsBALANCE SHEET UPSWINGThe surge in emergency lending caused the Fed’s balance sheet to stop shrinking and grow notably larger.

☆ Fed's new banking backstop could slow balance sheet drawdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Those bonds - collateral for Fed loans of up to a year in duration - will end up on the central bank's $8.4 trillion balance sheet. So far it has managed to shed nearly $600 billion of bonds from a balance sheet that topped out above $9 trillion in the middle of last year. "The more advantageous financial terms of the new Fed facility could divert a substantial amount of borrowing from the (Federal Home Loan Banks) and boost the size of the Fed's balance sheet," Wrightson said. Still, "reserve balances might not fall as much as they thought before because BTFP will actually add reserves and grow the balance sheet." Some observers believe the unsettled nature of markets right now means the Fed should consider stopping the balance sheet drawdown process.

The overall tone of the minutes is still likely to show inflation has top billing among policymakers. The minutes "will lean against easing prematurely" and keep the focus on the likelihood that rates will rise further and remain high, Derek Tang, economist at LH Meyer, wrote on Tuesday. COGNIZANT OF RISKSThe minutes could help pin down how much sentiment there is to ease the pace of upcoming rate increases to a quarter of a percentage point as of the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting. "It is especially challenging to estimate spillovers, and there are concerns that policymakers may underestimate them. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Fed's balance sheet drawdown could sunset next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Analysts at investment bank Nomura see the Fed ending the balance sheet run-off in September of next year. The balance sheet drawdown, meanwhile, has been designed to run more or less on autopilot, in the background. Reuters GraphicsNomura said the U.S. central bank will likely get its balance sheet down to around $7 trillion, well above the pre-pandemic level. Reductions in the Fed balance sheet withdraw bank reserves from the system, in a regime that's dominated by many moving parts, swirling around each other unpredictably. It's something the Fed faced in September 2019, when it was in its latest chapter of balance sheet contraction.

Yields on U.S. Treasury securities, which had dropped sharply after the Fed statement was released, turned higher. The 2-year note - the bond maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations - was up 6 basis points to about 4.61%. The document "implied that (the Fed) may be aiming for a higher medium-term level for the fed funds rate than currently expected," Nelson said. The language in the policy statement acknowledged the broad debate that has emerged around the Fed's policy tightening, and opened a new stage in that discussion. The Fed's statement "was a lot more definite about a possible downshift than I thought it would be.

☆ Fed on track for tens of billions in losses amid inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Those losses will not impede the central bank’s ability to conduct monetary policy but could over time expose it to friction on the political front. What’s more, getting a handle on how much money the Fed might lose is difficult given the highly unsettled economic outlook. FED PAYS TO PARK CASH ON SIDELINESThe Fed is losing money due to the mechanics of monetary policy. By paying interest to a mix of banks, money funds and others, the Fed keeps the federal funds rate in its desired range. The Fed funds its operations through services it provides banks and via interest from bonds it owns.

☆ Analysis: Decade of central bank largesse haunts taxpayers as losses loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. The British government, which received 120 billion pounds in profits from the BoE since 2009, has already earmarked a transfer of 11 billion pounds for the central bank. It will contribute to losses of around 40 billion euros for euro zone central banks next year, according to Morgan Stanley. They have all warned of upcoming losses and the Dutch central bank openly said it risked needing a bailout, although finance minister Sigrid Kaag later cautioned this was "not yet on the table". By contrast, central banks with less cash and higher-yielding bonds in Italy, Spain and Greece were likely to fare better.

☆ Fed's net income turned negative in September, but it was no surprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

At the Sept. 20-21 meeting, a top New York Fed staffer said that "as expected, Federal Reserve net income turned negative in September." The minutes, which were released on Wednesday, also noted that central bank staff expect the Fed will face negative income for some time. The U.S. central bank earns income from bonds it owns and from services it provides to the financial sector. POLITICAL RISKFed officials have repeatedly stressed that central bank negative income is not like a conventional bank losing money. Fed watchers have said the biggest risk to the central bank from the negative income situation is political.

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday an increase in its key interest rate by 0.75% to help fight inflation and get price growth under control. The Fed hopes that by raising the interest rate, it can slow down the economy and cause prices to come back down. But how does raising interest rates do that, exactly? It is this percentage, known as the federal funds rate, that the Federal Reserve helps set with its interest rate announcements. How the federal funds rate influences parts of the economyBut how could one interest rate have so much influence on the broader economy?

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