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☆ The job market is about to rebound as widespread spending boosts the economy, Apollo chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In a note to clients, Slok issued a more positive outlook on the US job market, even as hiring has slowed this year. "It is inconsistent to say that the incoming economic data is strong but the labor market is weakening," Slok wrote. AdvertisementHowever, consumption and business spending data have been strong in recent months. If the 30-year fixed rate slumps to around 5%, that could that could spark a rebound in home sales, providing a boost to the economy and job market, Slok said. AdvertisementThe outlook for the job market, though, remains mixed, with some commentators warning that hiring could continue to slow due to the lagged impact of the Fed's rate hikes.

Persons: —, Torsten Slok, Slok, Freddie Mac, David Rosenberg, who's Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, IRA, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta

☆ Mark Zuckerberg told his daughter she can't be Taylor Swift. A therapist said it's a great lesson for parents.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Julia Pugachevsky | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewBetween her vulnerable songs and stadium shows that somehow still feel intimate, Taylor Swift has captured the hearts of so many around the world — not least young girls. In a recent interview for the podcast "Acquired," Zuckerberg recounted taking August to a Taylor Swift concert. That's not available to you,'" Zuckerberg told hosts Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal. "His advice to his daughter to aspire to be herself, not Taylor Swift or some other icon, I do think it's an important reminder for all parents," Wright said. In a previous interview with CBS's Gayle King, Zuckerberg said he gives his kids chores such as loading the dishwasher.

Persons: —, Taylor Swift, Mark Zuckerberg's, August Chan Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Taylor, Swift, Ben Gilbert, David Rosenthal, Chan Zuckerberg, Annie Wright, Wright, Gen Zers, Gen Alphas, he's, CBS's Gayle King Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Maine

☆ The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut won't do anything to stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's big rate cut won't stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg's bearish call comes one day after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point interest rate cut, the Fed's first rate cut since 2020. AdvertisementBut Rosenberg isn't backing down, likening 2024 to 2007, right before the economy slowed and entered a painful recession. He added: "Half the country is in recession right now when we apply data science to the commentary." AdvertisementAs for the soaring stock market, Rosenberg says investors should heed the warning signs coming out of the bond market.

Persons: David Rosenberg, He's, Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, BLS

☆ Americans are the richest they've ever been thanks to soaring real estate and stock prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Americans' net worth hit a record $163.8 trillion in Q2, driven by a surge in real estate and stock prices. Data from the Federal Reserve shows a nearly 2% increase In net worth from Q1, with real estate leading the gains. Record highs in Americans' net worth could drive a "wealth effect" that leads to the economy's continued resilience. AdvertisementNew data from the Federal Reserve reveals that Americans are the richest they've ever been. A $1.8 trillion increase in real estate valued and a $700 billion gain in stocks drove the increase.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, " Rosenberg, It's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, National, Census Locations: States

☆ Mark Zuckerberg just sold out a stadium
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Sarah Jackson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Mark Zuckerberg is apparently selling out stadiums now. The Meta CEO was a guest on a live show of the "Acquired" podcast at Chase Center in San Francisco on Tuesday. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementMark Zuckerberg does plenty of podcast interviews, and this week he managed to sell out a stadium doing so. The Meta CEO was the leading guest at a live event Tuesday night by the popular "Acquired" podcast, held at Chase Center in San Francisco.

Persons: Mark Zuckerberg, —, Ben Gilbert, David Rosenthal, It's Organizations: Chase Center, Service, Business Locations: San Francisco

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the Fed is behind on rate cuts — and that a downturn is coming despite 'off the charts' investor sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ NFL Draft 2025 Big Board: Will Johnson, Abdul Carter lead Dane Brugler’s initial top 50
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-21 | by ( Dane Brugler | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +46 min

Position CB CB/WR DT Edge LB OT QB RB S TE WR iOL Class Jr. R-Jr. R-So. Photo: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images OT Jr. 11 Benjamin Morrison CB Notre Dame Height: 6-0 Weight: 186 Class: Jr. Photo: Tim Warner / Getty Images CB Sr. 42 Barrett Carter LB Clemson Height: 6-0 Weight: 234 Class: Sr. Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images WR Jr. 50 Drew Allar QB Penn State Height: 6-4 Weight: 230 Class: Jr. Photo: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images QB Jr.(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos of Carson Beck, Will Johnson and Travis Hunter: Rich von Biberstein / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Gregory Shamus, Ryan Kang / Getty Images)

Persons: Will, Johnson, “ can’t, Devon Witherspoon, Derek Stingley Jr, Sauce Gardner, Thomas Shea, Abdul Carter, LaVar Arrington, NaVorro Bowman, Micah Parsons, Carter, Tom Allen, Scott Taetsch, Travis Hunter, Hunter, Deion Sanders, Ron Chenoy, Jr, Mason Graham, Graham, NFL hasn’t, Quinnen Williams, Williams, Bailey, James Pearce Jr, Pearce, Pierce, —, Donald Page, Tetairoa McMillan, McMillan, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Jedd Fisch, Noah Fifita, Ivan Pierre Aguirre, Luther Burden, Burden, Theo Wease, Brady Cook, Johnnie Izquierdo, Carson Beck, Beck, Stetson Bennett, Brock Bowers, Matt Ryan, Megan Briggs, Starks, Bo Nix, hasn’t, Jamal Adams, Kim Klement Neitzel, Will Campbell, Campbell, Jonathan Bachman, Benjamin Morrison, Morrison, Darryl, Morrison’s, Matt Cashore, Shavon Revel Jr, Revel, wasn’t, Scott W . Grau, Emery Jones Jr, Joe Alt, Blake Fisher, Troy Fautanu, Roger Rosengarten, Caedan Wallace, Jones, Jones wasn’t, Julio Aguilar, Williams hasn’t, Travon Walker, ”, Jeff Blake, Edge, Kelvin Banks Jr, Banks, Steve Sarkisian, Bijan Robinson, Jonathon Brooks, Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Nick Tre . Smith, Tyleik Williams, Joseph Maiorana, Deone Walker, Walker, Joe Robbins, Shedeur Sanders, Sandersmania, Sanders, Eli, Manning, “, Sr, Nic Scourton Edge, Scourton, Jeff Brohm, Zach Bolinger, Harold Perkins Jr, Perkins, Brian Kelly, Blake Baker, Baker, who’s, David Rosenblum, Colston, McCarthy, Sherrone Moore, Aaron J, Thornton, Jonah Savaiinaea, Savaiinaea’s, Savaiinaea, Louis, Kevin Langley, Quinn Ewers, Ewers, Ewers wasn’t, Ron Jenkins, Conner Weigman, Weigman, Jimbo Fisher’s, Fisher, Bobby Petrino, Collin Klein, Mike Elko, Maria Lysaker, Jeanty, Chris Williams, Ersery, isn’t, Jason Mowry, JT Tuimoloau, Tuimoloau, Matthew Visinsky, Lander Barton, Barton, Morgan Scalley, Cody, Jackson, Lander, Chris Gardner, Patrick Payton, Payton, Jermaine Johnson, Jared, Isaiah Vazquez, Kenneth Grant, Grant wasn’t, Grant, Troy Taormina, Mansoor Delane, Dorian Strong, Rich Schultz, Maxwell Hairston, Andru Phillips, Kentucky’s, Phillips, Hairston, Carly Mackler, Egbuka, Stroud, Marvin Harrison Jr, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Rick Osentoski, Denzel, Burke, Tim Heitman, Ollie Gordon II, Gordon, Barry Sanders, Brian Bahr, QB Drake Maye, Rich von Biberstein, Ayomanor, Henderson, Danny Stutsman, Stutsman, Lincoln Riley, Brent Venables, Landon Jackson, Preston Smith, Petre Thomas, Jalon Walker, it’s, Quay Walker, Nolan Smith, Perry McIntyre, Jahdae Barron, Barron, Barron doesn’t, Tim Warner, Barrett Carter, Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney’s, Ken Ruinard, Isaiah Bond, Bond, Jalen Milroe, Kevin C, Cox, Walter Nolen, Nolen, Ole Miss, Jack Sawyer, Sawyer, Dylan Buell, Darrell Jackson Jr, Don Juan Moore, Sam Brown, Cam Ward, Damien Martinez, Brown, Ken Murray, Deion Burks, Burks, Evan Stewart WR, Stewart, Dillon Gabriel, Drew Allar, Allar, Sean Clifford, Allar’s, Will Levis, John Bradford, Will Johnson, Gregory Shamus, Ryan Kang Organizations: NFL, Edge, Will Johnson, Michigan, Wolverines, Detroit, Washington, USA, Abdul Carter Edge, Penn, Indiana, Nittany Lions, Parsons, FCS Jackson State, FBS, Stanford, School, UCLA, Getty, SEC, Arizona, Missouri, Tigers, Bulldogs, Oregon, LSU, Benjamin Morrison CB Notre Dame, Notre Dame, CB, Carolina, Louisburg College, Getty Images, Penn State, Baton, NC, Longhorns, Cass Tech High School, Buffs, Nic Scourton Edge Texas, College, Purdue, Boilermakers, Colston Loveland, St, Wildcats, College Football, Texas, Aggies, Kansas State, Ashton Jeanty, Boise State, Gophers, JT Tuimoloau Edge, Utes, Utah, Patrick Payton Edge, Miami Northwestern, Seminoles, Florida State, Mansoor Delane CB Virginia, Hokies, Virginia Tech, Giants, Buckeyes, Buckeye, Denzel Burke CB, Ollie Gordon II RB, Oklahoma State, Hampton RB, Appalachian State, ACC, Hampton, America, Alabama, Clemson, Tide, Ole Miss, Jack Sawyer Edge, Ohio State, Maryland, Terps, Miami, Hurricanes, West, Houston, Cougars, Sooners, — Penn State Locations: Michigan, Colorado, Servite, Calif, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia , Missouri , Texas, Rome, Arizona, Washington, Oklahoma, Georgia, Theo Wease , Missouri, Athens, USA, Louisiana, Alabama , Michigan, Oregon, Winston, Salem, East Carolina, Baton Rouge, Austin, Texas, Ohio, Columbus, Detroit, Alabama, Kentucky, Lexington, Dollaz, Colston Loveland TE, Gooding , Idaho, Loveland, Ann Arbor, American Samoa, Honolulu, College, Boise, Kansas City, JT Tuimoloau Edge Ohio, Utah, Patrick Payton Edge Florida, Miami, C.J, Fort Worth , Texas, Canada, Massachusetts, Notre Dame , Tennessee, Palo Alto, Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma, Alabama’s, But Texas, Jack Sawyer Edge Ohio, Florida, Savannah, Ga, West Virginia

☆ Rising household debt and shrinking incomes are setting the stage for a recession, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US looks poised to enter a recession, thanks to troubling trends in household finances. Economist David Rosenberg pointed to rising debt levels and shrinking incomes among American households. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US still looks poised to enter a recession, as rising debt and shrinking incomes are setting the economy up for a downturn.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg Research who's, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business

☆ Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, ”, Andrew Hollenhorst, ‘, ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, “, “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko

☆ The stock market's recession playbook is in full effect
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are de-risking their portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock-market sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid fears of a downturn. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and whether it's too late to fend off recession. AdvertisementDetailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear investors are employing the recession playbook:1. "Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate-cut expectations.

Persons: —, it's, they've, David Sekera, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Global, ETF, Rosenberg Research, Ned Davis Research

☆ Opinion | The Economist Who Predicted What Could Well Be the Next Recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The economist and market strategist David Rosenberg took a lot of heat for predicting that the Federal Reserve’s big increase in interest rates would tip the U.S. economy into recession. “I spent most of the past year being absolutely beaten up,” he told me last week. “I had email from clients that you would not believe, and many cancellations.”The latest economic data, including a sharp slowdown in job growth in July, is indicating that Rosenberg may well have been right all along. I asked him if he feels vindicated. Stocks also slumped in Europe and were off to a bad start in the United States on Monday as I was finishing this newsletter.

Persons: David Rosenberg, ”, “, Rosenberg, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Nikkei Locations: U.S, Europe, United States

☆ The Fed's long-awaited rate cuts will open up the job market — but it could take a while
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe US job market has certainly seen better days. AdvertisementThose rate cuts will help pull the job market out of its slowdown — but likely not before the unemployment rate climbs higher, says Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even then, it could take time for the effects of rate cuts to fully work their way across the job market, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. AdvertisementSlowdown in the pipelineUntil rate cuts kick in, Allen thinks the joblessness rate has even more room to climb. AdvertisementForward-looking indicators of job market strength have also been flashing signs of incoming weakness.

Persons: —, Oliver Allen, Allen, …, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Pantheon, Challenger, Gray &, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business

☆ Fears grow Fed is too late to cut rates as bets increase for a half-point easing at next meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of softening," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. The firm, which has long been saying the Fed will need to cut aggressively this year, expects another 50 basis point cut in November by a 25 basis point cut move in December. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The S & P 500 lost more than 2.5% and Treasury yields plummeted, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year note down more than a quarter percentage point to 3.91%. "It's very possible the Fed alters its inter-meeting communications on the balance of risks to remove all doubt [of] a September rate cut."

Persons: Yung, Yu Ma, David Donabedian, Preston Caldwell, David Rosenberg, Jerome Powell, Jamie Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Statistics, BMO Wealth Management, Wall, Citigroup, CIBC Private Wealth, Morningstar, Rosenberg Research, Harris Financial

☆ Fed should go and cut rates this week, says Rosenberg Research president
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed should go and cut rates this week, says Rosenberg Research presidentDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Rosenberg's take on the Federal Reserve's move this week, why the economy is in need of rate cuts sooner than September, and the focus on central bank meetings around the world.

Persons: Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Fed, Rosenberg Research, Federal

☆ This week's 'manic market' action looks a lot like the dot-com bust in 2000, economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The past week's tumultuous stock market action harkened back to the dark days of 2000 as the dot-com bubble was bursting, according to economist and strategist David Rosenberg. With tech leaders sagging and investors heading for cover, the widely followed market bear sees similarities between two eras that showed overheated investor sentiment and an overvalued market. "The massive daily swings reflect a manic market becoming unglued," the head of Rosenberg Research wrote in his daily market note Friday. "The action is highly reminiscent of what happened in the immediate aftermath of the Nasdaq rolling off the bubble highs in March 2000." Alfred E. Neuman feeling when I look at the action in the equity market and the reasons for this relentless exuberance," Rosenberg said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Alfred E, Neuman, Rosenberg, Russell Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow Jones, American, of, Investors, Investors Intelligence

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession shares 5 signs the US is on the brink of a downturn — all while the stock market shows concerning weakness beneath the surface of record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But don't bet on a soft landing outcome for the US economy as the Fed gets set to cut rates, says famed economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchRosenberg's downbeat views on the labor market come amid his skepticism about the impressive rallies in major stock-market indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Still, as Rosenberg points out, some say the Fed needs to act urgently as the labor market weakens. Waiting too long to lower interest rates to support the economy will only increase the odds of the job market breaking down." Rosenberg has been consistently bearish on the US economy in recent months, while the labor market has continued to prove him wrong.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Eli Lilly, Russell, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics ', Survey, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Macro

☆ When to expect the first rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhen to expect the first rate cutDavid Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss his predictions on when the Fed's next rate cut will occur.

Persons: David Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ Work is getting really weird
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The big storyBizarro workplaceLorenzo Matteucci for BILet's be honest: Work has gotten really weird. Workers hiring shadow stand-ins can be unqualified for their jobs, overwhelmed, greedy, or just lazy. Shadow stand-ins are typically paid a fraction of the salary earned by the actual employee. One employee also described to Rob struggling to deal with a shadow stand-in's sub-par work and eventually "firing" them. Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BIMeanwhile, the people who are doing all the work themselves are having a tough time getting any recognition.

Persons: —, Lorenzo Matteucci, Rob Price, Rob, Alyssa Powell, BI's Aki Ito, Roaring Kitty, Bain, Chris Miller, Greg Peters, Ted Sarandos, Peters, Chelsea Jia Feng, Coach's, David Rosenberg, Donald Trump's, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Grace Lett, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, BI, Super, Facebook, Workers, Corporations, Getty, GameStop, McKinsey, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Netflix, Walgreens, CVS, Rite, Wimbledon Locations: Chicago, India, Pakistan, China, Taiwan, New York, London

☆ The US housing market has entered bizarro world
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US housing market is distorting a core principal of economics: supply and demand. Home prices soared to record highs in May, even as existing home sales fell and supply of homes for sale jumped. AdvertisementThe US housing market has officially entered bizzaro world. The law of supply and demand is a basic principle of any free market, and right now, it's being subverted by strange happenings in the real estate market. "When it comes to the housing market, the laws of supply and demand don't seem to apply any longer," economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, it's Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Half of the U.S. economy is in recession, says research firm founder
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHalf of the U.S. economy is in recession, says research firm founderDavid Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, says "people are focused on the half that isn't," adding that "we're already in [a] soft landing, the question is what happens next."

Persons: David Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research Locations: U.S

☆ Americans' spending patterns are flashing a warning of a possible consumer-led recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewAmerica's stimulus-fueled shopping spree looks just about over — and lower spending could be a signal that a consumer-led downturn is on the horizon, economic experts say. Retail spending ticked 0.1% higher in May, but sales volume has dropped 1.3% year-over-year over the last three months, US Census data shows. That adds to a 4% decline in retail sales in the first quarter — and it's a strong sign the long-awaited consumer recession is on the horizon, economist David Rosenberg said recently. "Early signs of a consumer recession finally coming to the fore." AdvertisementThe US has 52% chance of slipping into recession by May of next year, according to projections from the New York Fed.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Stephanie Pomboy, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Business, McKinsey, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Pantheon Macroeconomics

☆ Surging government red ink spurs economists' worries over a prolonged recession and market trouble
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Burgeoning debt and deficits are threatening to make the next recession deeper while tying the hands of policymakers, according to two leading economists. The Congressional Budget Office this week revised its estimates to paint an even bleaker version of the U.S. financial picture. Teetering on trouble In fact, Rosenberg thinks the economy already is nearing or in the early stages of recession. "With budget deficits historically high relative to an economy operating at full employment, the government could be facing double-digit budget deficits when the next downturn hits." While equity markets have largely shrugged off worries over the fiscal situation, LaVorgna and Rosenberg both insist that bond investors should pay attention.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Teetering, Janet Yellen, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, LaVorgna Organizations: Congressional, Rosenberg Research, Federal, CBO, CNBC, White House, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: U.S

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession shares 3 ways stocks resemble some of the biggest bubbles in history — and warns 2 'bona fide' recession signals showed up in May's jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are currently reveling in the 'better', as an ongoing eight-month melt-up once again pushed the S&P 500 to fresh highs this week. But sooner or later, the 'worse' will come, warns David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research, who famously called the 2008 recession while working as Merrill Lynch's chief economist. AdvertisementAnother sign the market is out over its skis is the performance divergence between the market cap-weight and the equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes. On June 12, the Dow underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.94%, one of only 71 trading days since 1982 where that's happened, according to Rosenberg's technical analysis consultant, Walter Murphy. AdvertisementIn addition to concerning market technicals, fundamentals could also be in a troubling place in the form of labor market weakness, Rosenberg said.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Rosenberg, Bob Farrell, Walter Murphy, Murphy, — Rosenberg, it's, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Tech, Dow Jones, Dow, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Federal Locations: lockstep

☆ Economy has hit 'stall speed' and could weaken even further from here, says David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy has hit 'stall speed' and could weaken even further from here, says David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the data that may have gotten Rosenberg's attention, how the jobs number will impact Rosenberg's view, and more.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ The stock market rally is running on fumes as earnings growth can't keep up with sky-high prices, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is primed for a correction as equity valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementThe stock market is "primed for a correction" as earnings valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. That suggests that the expansion in the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings valuation multiple to 21x from 18x in October is getting stretched. Wall Street consensus for the S&P 500's 2024 earnings per share is $245, which is the same forecast today as it was in October, before the stock market staged a near-30% rally. AdvertisementThat has informed Rosenberg's consistently bearish view, but the economist did say that high valuations on their own do not mean the stock market can't go higher from here.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, " Rosenberg, Rosenberg's Organizations: Service

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