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Walt Disney puts its top-tier media dominance to the test when it reports results before the bell Tuesday. Wells Fargo's Steven Cahall upped his price target to $141 a share, suggesting upside of 24%. StreetAccount estimates call for 229.35 million subscribers across the business unit and nearly 155 million Disney+ subscribers. At its last earnings call in February, Disney said it expects between 5.5 million to 6 million added subscribers in the second quarter. He forecasts an additional 4 million subscribers each year.
Persons: Walt Disney, Nelson Peltz, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, David Karnovsky, Wells Fargo's Steven Cahall, Deutsche Bank's Bryan Kraft, Disney, Vijay Jayant, America's Ehrlich Organizations: Trian Partners, LSEG, Walt Disney, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Disney, Deutsche, DTC, Netflix, Bank Locations: F1Q
Here's which entertainment companies will outperform, according to analysts and industry insiders. Four industry veterans Insider spoke with unanimously agreed that unless the strikes are resolved soon, the movie industry's much-needed revival will fizzle out. In a mid-July note about the movie industry, Reese and Pachter highlighted three theater-related companies that are best positioned to survive in this difficult environment. FuboTV should be a winner since it's a solid alternative for cord cutters who still need news and sports coverage, which aren't impacted by the strikes, Pachter noted. Netflix is perhaps the most fascinating company in the media industry right now.
Persons: Barbie, Oppenheimer, Paul Dergarabedian, Alicia Reese, David A, Gross, Strikes, Reese, Michael Pachter, Dergarabedian, Pachter, Richard Gelfond, JPMorgan's David Karnovsky, Wedbush's Pachter, aren't, it's Organizations: Hollywood, Wedbush Securities, Entertainment Research, Alliance, Television Producers, Consumers, Netflix Locations: Hollywood, creatives
But can the same be said for Mattel shares? Mattel stock is up more about 19% on a year to date basis after a mixed start to the year. Into the Barbie release, the stock reflects the growing buzz. Mattel shares moved from $17.59 on June 1 to breaking into the $20 range for the first time since February. Though Barbie is not a typical film in the space given its adult audience, Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkwitz said, it can still help Mattel sales incrementally.
Persons: Gordon Haskett, Don Bilson, Greta Gerwig, Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, Bilson, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Laszczyk, Davidson, Linda Bolton Weiser, Bolton Weiser, Barbie, Brett Feldman, Jefferies, Andrew Uerkwitz, Roth, David Bellinger, Bellinger, Mario, Morgan Stanley, Benjamin Swinburne, ramped, Oppenheimer, Laszczyk, David Karnovsky, Karnovsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Mattel, Warner Bros, Lions, Lions Gate, Hasbro, MAT, Analysts, Universal Pictures, Mario Bros, Hollywood, JPMorgan, CNBC, Alliance, Television Producers, Guild of America Locations: 2H23
"We're getting to a point of being very destructive to the entertainment ecosystem," said Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett. Bazinet said to expect the walkout to last into the fourth quarter, which would mean a writers' strike lasting between around 150 and 240 days and an actors' strike in a range of 70 and 160 days. The strikes could cost the film and TV industry about $150 million per week, Citigroup's Bazinet wrote, using inflation-adjusted data from the 1980 actors' strike. "The lasting impacts are: [it] makes the streamers stronger and the traditional media companies weaker," Crockett said. JPMorgan analyst David Karnovsky downgraded movie theatre chain Cinemark shares to neutral from overweight earlier this week, citing the strike.
Persons: We're, Barton Crockett, Jason Bazinet, Bazinet, Douglas Mitchelson, Mitchelson, Goldman Sachs, Brett Feldman, Philip Cusick, Cusick, Goldman's Feldman, Citigroup's Bazinet, Rosenblatt's Crockett, Crockett, Feldman, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Stephen Laszczyk, David Karnovsky, Karnovsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Screen, – American Federation of Television, Radio Artists, Alliance, Television Producers, Writers Guild of America, Rosenblatt Securities, Media, AMC, Disney, Warner Bros, Discovery, Paramount, Netflix, UFC, Endeavor, WWE, SAG, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, AMC Networks, WBD, Covid, Comcast, CNBC
The actors strike rattling Hollywood could spell trouble for shares of Cinemark Holdings in the near term, according to JPMorgan. Analyst David Karnovsky downgraded the movie theater chain to neutral from an overweight rating, viewing the strike as a near-term impediment for shares limiting box office visibility. "Absent a resolution, we expect the strike will remain an overhang to CNK shares and limit upside." "Visibility into this, however, is now limited by the SAG-AFTRA strike, which has already shut down production for several films slated for 2H'24." Given the near-term headwinds, JPMorgan adjusted its price target to $18 from $21 a share, reflecting 17% upside from Tuesday's close.
Persons: David Karnovsky, Karnovsky, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Cinemark Holdings, JPMorgan, Alliance, Producers, SAG, 2H
Slow and steady will win the race at the box office this year, according to JPMorgan analyst David Karnovsky. The first is tied to the depressed state of the box office last year . However, if additional movies are released, here's where there could be upside to his box office forecast. DIS 3M mountain Disney shares have gotten a boost from a proxy battle, but box office gains could be ahead. Paramount's "Top Gun: Maverick" topped the box office charts last year, while NBC Universal had new films in the Jurassic Park and Minions franchises.
A sell-off in Cinemark coupled with the success of the latest installment in the "Avatar" franchise makes now a great time for investors to snap up the stock, according to JPMorgan. JPMorgan upgraded Cinemark to overweight from neutral and kept its $15 price target, which implies a more than 57% upside from where the stock currently trades. JPMorgan also now has a greater degree of confidence in their 2023 North America box office forecast and sees a continued recovery in movie supply. More stability in this industry model should help benefit Cinemark and push its multiple back towards pre-pandemic levels, according to JPMorgan. Of course, there are still some risks on the horizon that could lead to near-term pressure on the shares, such as was seen with the recent sell-off.
Roblox could be in trouble going forward as it struggles to sustain booking growth in the medium-term, according to JPMorgan. The new price target implies a smaller upside of 19.2% as the stock sees cooled growth in bookings with more variability than expected by the firm. Karnovsky said Roblox's bookings – which he sees as a driver of total sales – did not grow as much as expected. He expects booking growth to exit the mid-teen growth rate and stay down in 2023. Karnovsky said Roblox could be boosted out of this slowdown by new features and products not currently priced in.
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