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☆ Expect more rate hikes from the Fed after the latest jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Job gains remain robust, wage growth is still going strong, and unemployment continues to hover near historic lows. That means the job market is still fueling demand in the economy, which the Fed has been trying to slow through rate hikes. Assessing the labor marketThe Fed wants to see the labor market slow down broadly, bringing it into “better balance,” as Powell has frequently described it. And there has been some progress on bringing the job market back into better balance while inflation has come down. “The focus is on the path of wage inflation because of its pass-through to services inflation,” said Sonia Meskin, head of US Macro at BNY Mellon IM.

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☆ With these many jobs, do we no longer have to worry about a recession?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But for every recession alarm bell, the continued strength in the labor market seems to be an answer to those worries. “I think even in a recession environment, we’re going to have a relatively strong job market. “It’s still possible that the case of avoiding a recession is, in my view, more likely than that of having a recession. Jobs market still hot, but coolingThat’s not to say that the jobs market hasn’t slowed down. Powell said he’s not particularly worried about the cooling of the labor market over the last year.

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☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

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[1/2] A "now hiring" sign is displayed outside Taylor Party and Equipment Rentals in Somerville, Massachusetts, U.S., September 1, 2022. Economists polled by Reuters expect a gain of 239,000 jobs in March, with hourly wages rising at a 4.3% annual rate and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6%, a level seen less than 20% of the time since World War Two. Unemployment is still at a very low level," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with Reuters last week. How "slack" in the labor market links to lower inflation may depend on where job growth slows, and over what timeline. "The services sector, in particular, has contributed substantially to recent inflation, reflecting ongoing imbalances in labor markets where supply remains impaired and demand remains robust," they wrote.

Like Willis, private economists and analysts at payroll firms and staffing companies also see a labor market that is stressed but adjusting. A recent Goldman Sachs study concluded wage growth should continue slowing even with the current low unemployment rate of 3.4%. But even that came with slowing wage growth, and the gain was amplified by seasonal adjustments used to factor out expected swings in hiring during holidays and summer. Nela Richardson, chief economist at payroll processor ADP, said even as economy-wide hiring remains strong, the tech layoffs may be helping mute overall wage growth. "If that is a trend...we would expect there would be less drive for wage growth," she said.

The stronger-than-expected hiring pushed the unemployment rate to 3.4%, the lowest since the spring of 1969. “It will give the Fed absolutely no reassurance that labor market imbalances – which have been adding to wage pressures - are easing," said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings. "It will reinforce the message that the Fed still has quite a lot of work to do to tame core inflation." U.S. Labor Secretary Martin Walsh said he thought Friday's report showed signs of an economy and labor market steadily returning to normal. Powell pointed out that the years just before the COVID-19 health crisis included simultaneously low unemployment, low inflation, and sustainably modest wage growth, proof that a best-case set of conditions was achievable.

The local unemployment rate is already nearly a percentage point above the U.S. average of 3.5%. "It's very premature in my view to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hikes. The target federal funds rate is now in a range of between 3.75% and 4%, the highest since early 2008. In the 1970s and 1980s, Fed Chair Paul Volcker's attack on inflation sparked a recession that pushed the unemployment rate above 10%, then a post-World War II high. "I do worry about how rates affect the economy," Bostic said at the forum.

☆ Tens of thousands likely jobless after Hurricane Ian, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Martha C. White For Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Although the damage is still being tallied, early estimates indicate that Ian could be the most costly hurricane to make landfall in Florida. In the short term, a spike in jobless claims is almost inevitable, economists say: “Hurricane Harvey in Texas prompted a rise of about 50,000 in August of 2017,” noted Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. A view of the destroyed road between Florida's Matlacha and Pine Island after Hurricane Ian. “Katrina was a much more damaging storm, and impacted Louisiana, which is much less affluent than Florida,” Zandi said. A powerboat lies atop a pile of debris two days after the passage of Hurricane Ian, in Fort Myers, Florida.

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