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And while they might look minor in isolation, taken together these incidents amount to what security experts say is Russia’s hybrid war on the West. Thornton said Russia was resorting to a campaign of sabotage as an alternative to a full-on war with NATO, which would be disastrous for Russia. Article 5 is the cornerstone principle that an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all members. Danylyuk said the Russian security apparatus doesn’t shy away from using criminals to do its dirty work, tapping into its links with international organized crime. Russia can only be strong if the West and NATO are weak.
Persons: , Petr Fiala, Jens Stoltenberg, Rod Thornton, there’s, ” Thornton, Vladimir Putin, Thornton, , , It’s, ” Nicole Wolkov, Andrei Averyanov, Averyanov, Sergei, Yulia Skripal, d’etat, Oleksandr Danylyuk, , Volodymyr Zelensky’s, Danylyuk, Olga Lautman, Fiala, Sergei Skripal, Yulia, Frank Augstein, ” Lautman, Lautman, Alexander Litvinenko, Andrei Lugovoi, Theresa May, Nikolai Glushkov, Salisbury, Putin, ” “, let’s, ’ ”, that’s, Litvinenko, Skripal Organizations: CNN, Occupation, . Police, European Union, NATO, King’s College London, , Royal United Services Institute, Czech Police, GRU, London –, German Federal Public, Ukraine, Russian, Russia NATO, Center for, European, of Human, Duma, Metropolitan Police, Command, Soviet, West Locations: Prague, Czech, Moscow, Europe, Riga, London, Warsaw, Germany, Russia, Belarus, Russian, Spain, Lithuania, Canada, Ukraine, Kyiv, Russia –, United States, al Qaeda, France, EU, Salisbury, England, Czech Republic, Vrbetice, Montenegro, Moldova, Macedonia, Ukrainian, Poland, Salisbury , England, Finland, Estonia, Lautman, Soviet Union
Build up Ukrainian military power and compel Russia to agree to peace, argues a Ukrainian security expert. It's also clear that even with robust EU and US support, Ukraine is still at a disadvantage against the Russian war machine in a years-long fight. Related storiesDanylyuk also worries that political divergences between Ukraine and its allies are undermining Ukrainian military effectiveness. REUTERS/Sofiia GatilovaThe result is that the Ukrainian military isn't sure what kind of war to prepare for. Interestingly, Danylyuk blames the West for failing to adapt its equipment to the lessons of the Ukraine war.
Persons: Oleksandr Danylyuk, Danylyuk, Carl von Clausewitz, Biden, It's, Ukraine's, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Business, Royal United Services Institute, Century, [ Armed Forces, REUTERS, Ukrainian, Russian, Defense, Foreign Policy, Rutgers Univ, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Ukraine, Russia, USSR, British, Europe, Ukrainian, Kostiantynivka, Donetsk, Crimea, Soviet, Afghanistan, Russian, Moscow, China, North Korea, Iran, Forbes
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . There is a glimmer of hope for Ukraine, with a congressional vote that could release the aid package expected this weekend. Spurling, the RAND analyst, said that a Russian victory would most likely take the form of Ukraine ceding large amounts of conquered territory to Russia. AdvertisementThis implies that Ukraine, in any scenario, will have to cede territory, either formally or informally.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Putin, Oleksandr Danylyuk, Bryden Spurling, George Beebe, Ukraine's, Beebe Organizations: Service, Royal United Services Institute, of Defense, RAND Corporation, Business, CIA, RAND, NATO Locations: Ukraine, Europe, Russia, Kharkiv, Ukraine's, Russian, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Moscow, NATO
Even as Russian bombs pound Ukraine, Moscow's mercenaries and spies are busy trying to set much of the rest of the world afire. To Russia, the conventional warfare waged in Ukraine, and unconventional "gray zone" warfare waged around the world, are two sides of the same coin. Human intelligence operations are used to attempt elite capture through the offer of assistance to politicians who support Russian interests. "As the war in Ukraine protracts, Russia has an interest in creating crises further afield," said RUSI. "As a lot of Russia's unconventional operations are self-defeating, countering Russian unconventional warfare must be premised on careful, selective, and intelligence- driven targeting," the study emphasized.
Persons: , RUSI, Vladimir Putin, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk, Nick Reynolds, Britain —, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin, Ramzan Kadyrov, Kadyrov, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Britain's Royal United Services Institute, Business, Kremlin, Soviet Union, NATO, Directorate, Staff of, Armed Forces, Getty, Russian, Central African, Wagner, GRU Expeditionary Corps, Convoy, Defense, Foreign Policy, Rutgers Univ, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Europe, Africa, Central Asia, Soviet, Montenegro, Moscow, Moldova, Russian, Britain, Ukraine protracts, Balkans, Russia's, Libya, Mali, Sudan, Central African Republic, Chechnya, Forbes
OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso - Jan. 20, 2023: A banner of Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen during a protest to support the Burkina Faso President Captain Ibrahim Traore and to demand the departure of France's ambassador and military forces. Russia's military intelligence service is offering African governments a "regime survival package" that provides military and diplomatic support in exchange for access to strategically important natural resources, according to a new report. Russia's Defense Ministry was not available to comment on the report's findings when contacted by CNBC. Wagner has for many years been a key component of the Kremlin's efforts to grow its influence in politically unstable countries across central Africa and the Sahel, including the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso and Sudan. The report's authors Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained that the GRU chose to divide Wagner's activities in two.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Captain Ibrahim Traore, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk, Nick Reynolds Organizations: Royal United Services Institute, Wagner Group, Russia's Defense, CNBC, Central African, Volunteer Corps, Russian Military of Defense Locations: OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso, Africa, Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Ukraine
Despite being bigger and more advanced than its enemy, Russia's air force has struggled in Ukraine. It's commonly said that Russian fighter pilots are not as well trained as their Western counterparts, particularly those from the United States. But however ineffective you may think Russian pilot training is compared to the West, the truth seems to be … much worse. A Russian air force pilot prepares to take off in an Su-35 fighter jet at Hemeimeem air base in Syria in September 2019. Put simply, the Gulf War air campaign creates a damning juxtaposition when compared directly to Russia's air campaign over Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers have been fending off Russian forces for more than seven months in Bakhmut. A Ukrainian soldier told BBC that using prisoners is "cruel, immoral, but effective." "They are learning, they are getting cleverer, and it really freaks me out," a Ukrainian soldier who goes by the name Dwarf told BBC. There have been previous reports that say Russian forces are using prisoners to bolster its troop numbers. Dwarf, the Ukrainian soldier, told BBC that Wagner's use of prisoners is still proving to be an effective strategy in Bakhmut.
The War’s Violent Next Stage
  + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Marc Santora | Josh Holder | Marco Hernandez | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +16 min
For much of the winter, the war in Ukraine settled into a slow-moving but exceedingly violent fight along a jagged 600-mile-long frontline in the southeast. Now, both Ukraine and Russia are poised to go on the offensive. They are looking for vulnerabilities, hoping to exploit gaps, and setting the stage for what Ukraine warns could be Moscow’s most ambitious campaign since the start of the war. Ukraine must now defend against the Russian assault without exhausting the resources it needs to mount an offensive of its own. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has given an order to take all of the Donbas region by March, Ukrainian intelligence says.
Wounded Wagner Group soldiers are being left on battlefields for hours, Ukrainian intelligence said. The deaths of thousands of Wagner soldiers do not matter to Russian society, it suggested. "The deaths of thousands of Wagner soldiers do not matter to Russian society," the report said, according to CNN. Wagner soldiers are also being killed if they withdraw from an area without permission, the document said. The Wagner Group, which the US says is responsible for "atrocities and human rights abuses' in Ukraine, has close links to the Kremlin.
Russia's Wagner Group is sending prisoners who "have nothing to lose" to the frontlines, according to Politico. The prisoners have been shoved to the forefront of the fighting in the war-torn Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. The Wagner Group — which has close ties to the Kremlin — has fought alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. Moscow's reliance on the Wagner Group in Ukraine is indicative of the serious manpower issues facing the Russian military. The Russian military is also running low on munitions, which Western officials have said will make it difficult to successfully conduct ground operations.
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