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☆ The verdict is in on how much Texas' heat wave clobbered its economy this summer
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A new estimate says the record summer heat in Texas cost the state's economy $24 billion. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Lone Star State's punishing and record-breaking heat wave, coupled with an unyielding drought, significantly affected local businesses and, by extension, the state's economy. For every 1-degree increase in average summer temperature, Texas sees a 0.4% slowdown in its annual nominal GDP growth. Notable establishments like Schlitterbahn, SeaWorld, and Six Flags blamed their dips in summer visitors on the heat wave. AdvertisementAdvertisementOne brewery owner in Austin told My San Antonio that the summer heat "crushed" the city as several local breweries were forced to close their doors.

Persons: Kirk Watson, Watson, SUZANNE CORDEIRO, Austin Organizations: Service, Austin, Dallas Federal Reserve, Star, Banking, Dallas Fed, Dallas Fed's, Six Flags, Houston . Houston Chronicle, Hearst Newspapers, Getty, Texas, Texas State Locations: Texas, . Texas, Dallas, Dallas Fed's Texas, SeaWorld, Colorado, Utah, Antonio, Houston ., Arlington, cabanas

☆ Morning Bid: Bond crush stifles markets as $134 billion hits
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The yield spike has supercharged the U.S. dollar worldwide - both a reflection and aggravator of mounting financial stress far and wide. As Deutsche Bank notes, this is historically significant territory as the average of the 10-year yield going back to 1799 is around 4.50%. The Treasury sells $48 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $49 billion in five-year paper on Wednesday and $37 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the Fed probably needs to raise borrowing rates further. Private sector bankers are starting to brace for the worst, with JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon reported overnight as warning: "I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7% (Fed rates)."

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Mike Dolan, South Korea's, Sterling, haven't, Neel Kashkari, Said Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, Christine Lagarde, China Evergrande, Michelle Bowman, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Bank of Japan, South, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Minneapolis Fed, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Dallas Fed's, Chicago Fed's, HK, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Costco, Cintas, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, U.S, Wall St, Asia, Europe, Philadelphia, Washington

☆ 'Interest rates are killing our industry': Here's what businesses are saying about the Fed's impact on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are having a negative impact on the economy. "Interest rates are killing our industry," said an executive from the transportation equipment sector. AdvertisementAdvertisement"High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before... interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures. This is the time to stop raising interest rates," one survey respondent in the computer and electronic product manufacturing industry said. Finally, a survey respondent from the transportation equipment manufacturing industry had this to say about what the Fed is doing with interest rates: "Interest rates are killing our industry."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson Organizations: Dallas Fed's, Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Locations: Dallas Fed's Texas, Dallas

☆ Trade between the US and China is drying up. That could be bad news for American consumers.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Mexico is now the US's top trade partner. Mexico surpassed China as the US's top manufacturing trade partner in 2023. In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization, a group that grants members preferential tariffs when trading with one another. That access opened the door to China to become a leading trade and manufacturing hub, as the Dallas Fed pointed out. Mexico, for its part, benefits from increased trade with the US — beating out China in US trade volume means it's climbing on the world stage.

Persons: Luis Torres Organizations: Service, Dallas Fed, World Trade Organization, China, U.S, Dallas Locations: China, Mexico, Wall, Silicon, Washington, Beijing

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

☆ Fed's hawks make a pitch against a rate-hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Thursday, rate-futures markets reflected a one-in-three chance of a June rate hike, compared with a one-in-10-chance seen a week ago. The Fed has lifted borrowing costs at each meeting since March 2022, bringing them from near zero to a 5.00-5.25% range as of early this month. Consumer price inflation, for instance, edged down to a 4.9% annual pace in April but is still far above the Fed's 2% goal. However, his embrace of the idea that there is still a lot of policy tightening in the pipeline suggests he could be comfortable with a pause. Dallas Fed's Logan had the opposite presumption.

☆ Morning Bid: Amazon cools, Intel warms, Japan hesitates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A smartphone with a displayed Intel logo is placed on a computer motherboard in this illustration taken March 6, 2023. But the dramatic re-acceleration of Big Tech stocks this week - where the NYFANG+TM (.NYFANG) index of the top 10 Big Tech stocks is now up 37% so far this year - is competing with multiple macro narratives that are increasingly hard to read. With the Fed meeting in view, the release of March PCE price inflation data later on Friday tops the diary. Wall St stock futures fell back 0.4% after a wild ride in Amazon.com shares overnight. With much of Europe and Asia closed on Monday for the May Day bank holiday, Asia bourses advanced in Wall St's slipstream but Europe retreated sharply on some jarring corporate updates.

☆ Stock futures inch down as Wall Street awaits tech earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stock futures fell slightly on Sunday night as investors await a slew of corporate earnings from big tech companies, as well as fresh economic data releases. First quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to decline an overall 5.2%, according to Refinitiv data. Wall Street is looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week in what will mark the halfway point of earnings season. "Part of the reason why we're so focused on the economic data is we think the investor narrative is still around the Fed and interest rates. I think, to some extent, the Fed rate hike slowed down the economy.

☆ 'The credit crunch has started': Here's what tighter lending standards mean for American consumers and businesses as banks navigate the SVB wreckage
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"Each bank is going to apply those credit standards differently," a source told Insider. Requiring higher minimum credit scores and minimum repayments and curbing credit limits were among tweaks banks were making. Lending to consumers dropped and credit standards and terms "continued to tighten sharply," with marked rises in loan pricing. A "dramatic worsening of firm and consumer access to bank credit," is how a 2014 paper on the Federal Reserve's website describes a credit crunch. Tighter lending standards may have a big impact on floating-rate loans versus fixed loans, CFRA equity analyst Alexander Yokum told Insider.

☆ Lending to consumers has dropped as banks move quickly to further tighten credit standards after the failure of SVB, Fed survey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Dallas Fed survey in March showed a drop in total loan volume and a tightening of lending standards. Banking outlooks "continued to deteriorate," the regional Fed bank said. The Dallas Fed released its March survey this week. At the same time, a gauge of credit and lending standards indicated lenders such as banks and credit unions further tightened access to funding. Banking outlooks "continued to deteriorate" in March, the Dallas Fed said.

The Act states the Fed should conduct monetary policy "so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates." On that basis, the average core PCE inflation rate since 2010 is exactly 2.0% - even after the recent scare and with the monthly rate ebbing again fast. At 1.25%, real 10-year yields - measured by market inflation expectations rather than prevailing inflation - are far above sub-zero post-pandemic troughs and are also some of the highest in over a decade. And hence the cat and mouse game between Fedspeak and market pricing - rather than a material change to investors' assumption that the Fed is nearly done. U.S. Fed has missed the mark on inflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Morning Bid: Chipped
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A surge of 'soft landing' hopes for the U.S. economy on Thursday got sideswiped overnight after a dire industry readout from chipmaking giant Intel decimated its stock price after the bell. "We expect some of the largest inventory corrections literally that we've ever seen in the industry," he told Reuters later. Annual 'core' PCE inflation is expected to have slowed to 4.4% last month, the lowest in more than a year, from 4.7% in November. U.S. bonds of Adani firms also fell after Hindenburg Research flagged concerns in a Jan. 24 report about debt levels and the use of tax havens. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Falling house prices will help the Fed tame inflation – but they also increase the risk of a prolonged economic downturn
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But a housing market slowdown also increases the risk of a recession. The aggressive monetary tightening lifted the average 30-year US mortgage rate from 5.60% to 6.84% over the last three months, according to Bankrate. "A decline in home buying is one of the byproducts of tighter monetary policy," Macquarie's head of economics David Doyle told Insider. What has the Fed said about the housing market? Should borrowing costs remain too high for too long, those industries risk facing a decline in business at a time when monetary tightening is already squeezing their cash flows.

☆ 20% housing correction is coming, says Peter Boockvar
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email20% housing correction is coming, says Peter BoockvarBleakley Advisors' Peter Boockvar agrees with the Dallas Fed's warning about the state of the housing market and warns that a 20 percent correction is coming. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Julie Biel.

Among the most important are quarterly and annual reports, which under U.S. securities law are known as Form 10-Q and Form 10-K, respectively. Annual reports, in particular, are the best places to begin homework into a company you may invest in. It's important to scrutinize a few years' worth of annual reports, too. The Semiconductor Industry Association's annual reports may be helpful to read as a supplement to your company-specific research. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

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