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Dollar sags as slower U.S. inflation boosts rate cut expectations
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. Stocks and other risk-sensitive assets such as the Australian dollar led gains in the wake of the data release. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-month high at $0.6131. Softer-than-expected retail sales figures, which were flat last month instead of the 0.4% gain that economists had forecast, reinforced the newfound confidence in rate cuts.
Persons: Sterling, Bart Wakabayashi, China's, Bitcoin Organizations: Australian, New Zealand, U.S, State, European Central Bank Locations: Asia, Tokyo, Treasuries
"That all really kind of plays right into Ollie's hands." Her $92 price target implies about 17%% upside from Monday's close. The average analyst has a buy rating and target for shares suggesting upside of more than 12%, according to LSEG. Ollie's shares are lagging the broader market in 2024 with a gain of almost 5% versus the S & P 500's 9% gain. OLLI 1Y mountain Ollie's shares over the past 12 months.
Persons: Anthony Chukumba, it's, Price, Melanie Nuñez, Ollie's, Nuñez, Chukumba, OLLI, Truist's Scot Ciccarelli, Ciccarelli, TJ Maxx, BofA's Nuñez, Chukumba's, FirstCash Organizations: Capital, Federal, Amazon, Walmart, Bank of America, Wall, Ross Locations: McDonald's, Harrisburg , Pennsylvania, Monday's, Ollie's
Investors with cash on the sidelines may want to start moving some of that money into bonds, according to a new report from BlackRock. The bond market has seen some volatility amid the uncertainty around interest rates and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Bond yields move inversely to prices. US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yields Yields are at levels not seen in 20 years, he pointed out. Aggregate Bond ETF year to date The iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB) is also a passively managed, broad bond market fund which adds exposure to potentially higher-yielding names.
Persons: Steve Laipply, shouldn't, Laipply Organizations: Federal, Treasury, BlackRock, Fed, Core, Aggregate Bond, Bloomberg U.S, SEC, Aggregate, Bond Locations: BlackRock
That said, in general, most investors would be best served buying a diversified bond fund, said Mulach. What to look for in bond fundsThere are several factors to consider when investing in a bond fund. Intermediate-core durations typically range between 75% and 135% of the three-year average of the effective duration of the Morningstar Core Bond Index. Top Morningstar Bond Funds Ticker Fund Morningstar Category Type 30-day SEC yield Adj. Aggregate Bond ETF can be a great option to simply replicate that index, he said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, shouldn't, Morningstar, Mike Mulach, Chuck Failla, Failla, Mulach, You'll, Baird, BSBSX Baird, Morningstar's Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Sovereign Financial, Morningstar, SEC, Mutual, FLTB Fidelity, Fidelity, Hartford, Aggregate
Walgreens on Thursday said it will start to work directly with drugmakers to bring cell and gene therapies to U.S. patients as part of a broader expansion of its specialty pharmacy services. The company said it is launching a new business unit dedicated to its specialty pharmacy segment, which will include specialty pharmacy subsidiary AllianceRx. Meanwhile, Shields Health Solutions, a subsidiary that supports health system-owned specialty pharmacies, will remain under Walgreens's U.S. health-care division. Specialty pharmacies provide medications that require extreme care in handling, storage and distribution. Among the company's new investments to "transform" its specialty pharmacy services, it will open a newly licensed facility in Pittsburgh dedicated to services for cell and gene therapies.
Persons: drugmakers Organizations: Walgreens, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Shields Health Solutions, Walgreens's Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Pittsburgh
Overall, actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds fell short of passive funds, with 47% of active strategies surviving and beating their index-following peers, according to Morningstar. However, actively managed funds outperformed in the bond category. About 53% of active bond managers survived and beat the passive average in 2023, up from 30% in 2022, the research firm said in a recent report . Intermediate core bond funds largely invest in investment-grade debt, spanning from government issues to corporates. Core bond funds have also held up in recessions, thanks to their diversification across fixed income and duration.
Persons: Morningstar, Paul Olmsted, Olmsted, Olmstead, It's Organizations: Morningstar, Vanguard, Bond Market, Aggregate Bond, Intermediate Bond Fund
A TV presenter gets ready for the daily reporting from the floor of the German share price index DAX at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 15, 2023. LONDON — European markets are set to open higher on Friday to start the new trading month after a winning February, with euro zone inflation data due mid-morning. The European stock index notched an all-time high last month, powered by the 11 GRANOLAS large-cap stocks that made up half of the gains across the entire Stoxx 600. Focus will turn Friday to February's flash euro zone inflation reading, expected at 10 a.m. London time, with economists in a Reuters poll predicting the consumer price index rose 2.5% year on year, down from 2.8% in January. German consumer price inflation on Thursday came in line with forecasts at 2.7% year on year.
Persons: DAX Organizations: LONDON, GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L'Oreal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP, Sanofi, Focus, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, London
Investors poured cash into these fixed income ETFs in 2023
  + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy set the tone for the fixed income world in 2023 – right down to which exchange traded funds investors picked to take advantage of higher interest rates. Bond yields have an inverse relationship to their prices, so that when prices decline, yields rise and vice versa. The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) was another favorite of investors, with about $7.3 billion in net flows in 2023. Indeed, those strategies proved popular with investors in 2023, as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) were ETFs with the second and third highest net flows, per Morningstar.
Persons: It's, Paul Olmsted, Matthew Bartolini, Olmsted, Morningstar, , it's, BND, AGG Organizations: Investors, Bloomberg Finance, State Street Global Advisors, Morningstar, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, Street Global Advisors, State, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, SGOV, SEC, Treasury, Fed, Vanguard, Bond Market, Core, Aggregate Bond Locations: SPDR Americas, Central
The S & P 500 rose 24% in 2023, ending the year just shy of a record closing high. The highest S & P 500 target on the Street calls for 8.7% upside from Thursday's close. A fund with exposure to small and midcap semiconductor stocks is the SPDR S & P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) . Exposure to this space can be obtained through the SPDR S & P Health Care Equipment ETF (XHE) . For these investors, Bailey likes Berkshire Hathaway , calling it a counter-cyclical sitting on a ton of cash.
Persons: Larry Adam, Raymond James, Robert Kaplan, Steven Wieting, Wieting, there's, Mike Bailey, — Bailey, Bailey, They're, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, they're, Jack Ablin, Ablin, Rowe Price Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, CNBC Pro's, Survey, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas Federal, CNBC, Bank of America, Fed, CNBC Pro, Citi Global Wealth, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, P Semiconductor, P Health Care, FBB Capital Partners, Corporate, Aggregate Bond, Berkshire, Essex Property Trust, Federal Realty Trust, Rowe Price Group Locations: Essex
WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State Antony Blinken is turning his attention to Ukraine, NATO and the Western Balkans after weeks of intense focus on Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Now, amid signs that a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas due to expire on Monday may be extended, Blinken is departing for Brussels for a NATO foreign ministers meeting. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said he plans to attend the OSCE meeting, possibly setting the stage for a U.S.-Russia confrontation over Ukraine. The NATO meeting in Brussels will also address the situation in the Western Balkans where there are calls for NATO to increase its military presence amid concerns that hostility between Serbia and Kosovo could escalate to outright conflict. Blinken will underscore U.S. and NATO support for democracy and regional stability in the region, including a commitment to back all countries’ aspirations to join the European Union, O’Brien said.
Persons: Antony Blinken, Blinken, , Jim O’Brien, O’Brien, Sergey Lavrov Organizations: WASHINGTON, , NATO, eventual, , Organization for Security, Cooperation, Russian, OSCE, Kosovo —, Serbia —, European Union, NATO's Locations: Ukraine, Western Balkans, Gaza, Israel, Brussels, Kosovo, Serbia, Russia, Europe, Skopje, North Macedonia, U.S, Balkans, Washington
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday in California for talks on trade, Taiwan and managing fraught U.S.-Chinese relations in the first engagement between the leaders of the world's two biggest economies in nearly a year. Thousands of protesters are expected to descend on San Francisco during the summit. Thousands of people protesting climate destruction, corporate practices, the Israel-Hamas war and other issues are expected to descend on San Francisco during the summit. San Francisco Police Department Chief Bill Scott said his department expects several protests a day but doesn't know which ones will materialize where and when. ___Associated Press writer Janie Har in San Francisco and Ken Moritsugu in Beijing contributed reporting.
Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Biden, Xi, Karine Jean, Pierre, , Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Tsai Ing, Nancy Pelosi's, ” Biden, Bill Scott, Janie Har, Ken Moritsugu Organizations: WASHINGTON, Economic Cooperation, White, APEC, U.S ., Biden, Communist Party, Democratic, U.S, Beijing, Senate Intelligence, Pentagon, San Francisco Police Department, Associated Press Locations: California, Taiwan, Asia, San Francisco, U.S, China, San Francisco Bay, Beijing, United States, North Korea, Pyongyang, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Tehran, Israel, Bali , Indonesia, Taipei, American, South China, Philippines, States
Bonds are starting to make a lot of sense for investors, Forrest said. Even after pulling back somewhat from those levels, the benchmark yield remains within striking distance of the key 5% threshold. The potential unwinding of what BofA recently called the "greatest bond bear market in history" has more investors trying to lock in higher yields ahead of potential rate cuts next year from the Federal Reserve. 'A lot for us to love bonds' Other investors are building out their bond exposure. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) is off by more than 2% in 2023, but greater than 1% on the week.
Persons: Kim Forrest, she's, Forrest, Bonds, Treasurys, Forrest isn't, Nancy Tengler, She's, , Tengler, Bryce Doty, Emily Roland, CNBC's, I've, Roland, we've, Lawrence Gillum, Bokeh Capital's Forrest, Sit Investment's Doty, LPL Financial's Gillum, Gillum, Sit's Doty, Doty Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners, Bank of America, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Laffer, Sit Investment, John Hancock Investment Management, LPL, Bloomberg, Bond, Aggregate Bond, Bond Market, Corporations Locations: U.S, Israel
BlackRock global fixed income CIO Rick Rieder said Friday that this year's bond market volatility has created opportunities to buy high quality yields on the cheap. The result is his new fund outperforming some of the biggest bond ETFs during the most recent sell-off. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and 2.2% for the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) , the two biggest bond ETFs. BINC 1M mountain BlackRock's BINC has held up better than major bond ETFs over the past month. "I think what people underestimate is the long end of the bond market, the 30-year Treasury, is about the same volatility as the stock market," he said.
Persons: Rick Rieder, Rieder, We've Organizations: BlackRock, Rieder, Aggregate Bond, Vanguard, Bond Market, CNBC, Treasury, Corporate Bond Fund, Fed, AAA, Mortgage, SEC Locations: BlackRock, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, iShares, United States, U.S
Treasury yields are spiking to levels not seen in over 15 years, causing sell-offs in many of the market's biggest bond funds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed at $89.18 on Monday, which was its lowest close since Feb. 10, 2011, according to FactSet. The Fed's target interest rate is already above 5%, as are short-term Treasury yields. But the long-term decline in bond yields began roughly two decades before that. That trend may finally have reached its turning point, Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, said Tuesday on CNBC's " Squawk Box ."
Persons: Bruno Braizinha, Braizinha, Goldman Sachs, Cecilia Mariotti, Mariotti, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Jonathan Krinsky, Jim Grant, Grant, BTIG's Krinsky Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, iShares, Aggregate Bond, Treasury, Bank of America, Barclays, Federal
In theory, the more return you hope to earn from an investment, the more risk you'll have to take on. While most asset classes follow the risk/return rules, a couple notable outliers emerge. Commodities, despite being one of the jumpier asset classes, offer the weakest 20-year return at 0.73%. There are compelling cases to be made that, given their outsize performance, large stocks are overvalued compared with other asset classes, such as small-company and developed and emerging markets stocks, Stovall adds. For long-term investors, he says, "nibbling at small- and mid-cap stocks as well as international investments might be a good thing."
Persons: We've, there's, Sam Stovall, they'll, Wayne Gretzky, Stovall, Amy Arnott Organizations: Morningstar Direct, Commodities, Morningstar Research Services
Should I Ditch Bonds for Money-Market Funds or CDs?
  + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Steve Garmhausen | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +5 min
By Steve GarmhausenIs it reasonable or even wise to shift some of your bond allocation to money-market funds paying over 5%? The broad bond market had its worst year ever in 2022, as reflected by the AGG—the iShares Core U.S. Bonds vs. money-market fundsSo should you really sell bonds and use the proceeds to buy these products? Bonds have also performed better historically than the “cash” category, which includes money-market funds. Money-market funds are considered a low-risk investment, and one that’s easy to sell if you need cash.
Persons: Steve Garmhausen, Bonds, Amita Desai, , Adrianne Yamaki, Brent Weiss, Aswath Damodaran, Weiss, you’ve, Yamaki Organizations: Aggregate, Federal Reserve, Money Market Fund, Treasury, New York University Locations: Demarest, N.J, San Francisco, Baltimore, , New Jersey
The Weitz Core Plus Income Fund (WCPNX) , which Carney co-manages with Nolan Anderson, received five stars and a bronze rating from Morningstar. Aggregate Bond Index]," Carney said. Enter, asset-backed securities. Asset-backed securities (ABS) follow in second place, making up 27.6% of the portfolio. As a result, participating in the asset-backed securities space requires a granular level of due diligence.
Persons: Tom Carney, Weitz, Carney, Nolan Anderson, Morningstar, WCPNX, There's, that's, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Organizations: Morningstar, Bloomberg Barclays U.S, Universal Bond, SEC, Bloomberg U.S, Aggregate Bond, Federal Reserve Bank of New, BBB, U.S, Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Morning Bid: Soft landing fatigue
  + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Positive economic data tends to move stock markets, either by fueling rallies, or prompting a temporary sell-off as traders take profits. But Wall Street stock markets ended Thursday flat. Futures point to mild declines for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 on Friday. The S&P 500 has risen 16% year-to-date. Analysts have cut their estimates for S&P 500 companies' 2023 earnings by about 15% since the end of last year, Capital Economics says.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naomi Rovnick, Emmanuel Cau, Cau, Ned Davis, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Barclays, Economics, Capital Economics, Ned Davis Research, U.S Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, University of Michigan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuscany
NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose from a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after core retail sales saw strong gains in June, as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Headline U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in June, with a 0.2% increase during the month. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.6% in June. Data for May was revised slightly up to show core retail sales increasing 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%. The dollar rose 0.10% against the Japanese yen to 138.83, after dropping to 137.245 on Friday, the lowest since May 17.
Persons: , Bipan Rai, ” Rai, Klaas Knot, Samuel Indyk, Sharon Singleton, William Maclean Organizations: YORK, U.S, Headline U.S, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Norwegian krone, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Britain, Japan, Norwegian, London
[1/2] U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. The greenback also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015 after the inflation report. Data showed core U.S. consumer prices rose just 0.2% in June, compared with forecasts for a gain of 0.3%. The monthly rise in core prices was the smallest since August 2021. Against the yen, the dollar dropped to a six-week low of 138.17 yen .
Persons: Lee Jae, Simon Harvey, Jordan Rochester, Sterling, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Ann Saphir, Chris Reese, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Nomura, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Seoul, Swiss, U.S, London, Norwegian, Swedish, United States
[1/2] U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. The greenback also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015 after the inflation report. "The Fed may have talked itself into a corner with a July 26th rate hike. Against the yen, the dollar dropped to a six-week low of 138.17 yen . The pound is being driven by expectations for the Bank of England to deliver more rate rises to tame UK inflation, which is the highest of any major economy.
Persons: Lee Jae, Simon Harvey, Brian Jacobsen, Sterling, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Chuck Mikolajczak, Ann Saphir, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Core, CPI, Annex Wealth Management, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Seoul, Swiss, Core U.S, U.S, London, Norwegian, Swedish, Menomonee Falls , Wisconsin, New York, San Francisco
Many investors appear comfortable betting on stocks to continue rising after a surprising strong first half, according to fund flow data. Investors even plowed $1.9 billion into the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) , which is up almost 40% so far this year. The flows are notable because investors have been somewhat reluctant to put more money in stocks this year despite the rally. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) also saw inflows this week, so some investors are still hedging their bets on stocks. With investors starting to chase the recent rally, all major regions except Europe saw inflows.
Persons: Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Trust, Aggregate Bond, Vanguard, Bond Market, Barclays Locations: Europe
Indeed a third U.S. central banker speaking early in the day, Governor Michelle Bowman, signaled she feels further policy tightening may yet be appropriate, unless inflation drops more convincingly. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate five full percentage points over the past 14 months - the fastest pace of tightening in 40 years. Yes," Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said at a monetary policy conference at the Hoover Institution. That's notable from a policymaker who was among the first and most vocal to push for sharp rate hikes to fight inflation, back in mid-2021. But since then, he said, the Fed's rate hikes have helped bring down what had been a worrying rise in inflation expectations that, if left unchecked, could have sent actual inflation spiraling out of control.
REUTERS/Issei KatoNIIGATA, Japan, May 11 (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday will underscore the United States' commitment to continue supporting Ukraine for as long as needed, while working with other rich nations to degrade Russia's ability to wage war against its neighbor. "I look forward to coordinating with other G7 members to support Ukraine and degrade Russia’s ability to wage war," she said in the remarks released by Treasury as the war approaches its 450th day. "Since Day One, our countries have stood united to support the Ukrainian people as they have mounted a fierce resistance," she said. Yellen also said caps on the price of Russian oil and oil products, discussed by G7 finance ministers for the first time just a year ago, were clearly working just a few months after its implementation in December and February, respectively. While the price cap coalition was moving to phase out all imports of Russian oil, officials were urging developing countries "to save on their oil costs by taking advantage of the price cap to negotiate steep bargains on Russian oil," she said.
U.S. Labor Department data showed April inflation cooled to 4.9%, the smallest year-over-year increase in two years. However, so-called core inflation remained sticky at 5.5%, suggesting interest rates may need to stay high for some time to tame it. "The U.S. dollar did soften modestly on the news that core U.S. CPI inflation edges a little lower in April. Economists polled by Reuters expected core U.S. consumer prices to rise 5.5% on a year-on-year basis for April. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a pause before expected rate cuts in September.
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