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Many U.S. oil producers are pumping only enough oil to keep production flat and turning over more profit to investors. Shale gas producers have struggled all year and have not been able to reduce drilling fast enough to counter weak prices. But U.S. oil and gas producers are not looking to spend more, executives said. NOV's average earnings estimate for the fourth quarter was slashed by 7%, while pressure pumping provider Liberty Energy (LBRT.N)'s was trimmed by 3%. "At this point, we still are counting on the fourth quarter to be worse," said Rystad analyst Justin Mayorga.
Persons: Clay Williams, Michael Stock, Justin Mayorga, Samuel Sledge, Kevin Neveu, Helmerich, Payne, Neveu, Baker Hughes, Arathy Somasekhar, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: HOUSTON, Street, North, Liberty Energy, ProPetro, Rystad Energy, INTERNATIONAL, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Drilling, Halliburton, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Alaska, Hawaii, United States, Kuwait, American, Houston
Energy heavyweights Chevron and Exxon Mobil announced shiny new acquisitions this month — and some industry watchers say it could be the start of more multibillion megadeals to come. Chevron on Monday said it's buying Hess for $53 billion in stock, allowing Chevron to take a 30% stake in Guyana's Stabroek Block — estimated to hold some 11 billion barrels of oil. The announcement comes just weeks after Exxon Mobil announced its purchase of shale rival Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5 billion in an all-stock deal. While this marks Exxon's largest deal since its acquisition of Mobil, the merger would also double the oil giant's production volume in the largest U.S. oilfield, the Permian Basin. "The big-money acquisition of Hess by Chevron accelerates the trend of consolidation and big-money deals," energy consultancy Rystad Energy said in a note.
Persons: it's, Hess Organizations: Energy, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Mobil, Hess, Rystad Energy, Exxon, Pioneer Locations: Guyana
In the last four years energy investors have dumped stocks in oil companies that boost capital spending, favoring higher returns over spending on costly, long-term new projects. But Exxon shares last month hit a record high of $120, lifted by returns on its oil, gas and refining businesses. 2 Permian shale oil producer, for $60 billion, signals it is ready to pay up for production after missing its own output targets in the Permian. A deal would bring Exxon to about 1.33 million barrels of oil and gas per day, the largest in the oilfield. It has good reserves, growing production, spending in check and debt at healthy levels, he said.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, Exxon Mobil's, Bill Smead, Vince Lorusso, Lorusso, Shale Research Alexandre Ramos, Kathryn Mikells, Bass, Scott Hanold, Matthew Bernstein, Sabrina Valle, Anna Driver, Diane Craft Organizations: Exxon Mobil Corporation, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Exxon, Natural Resources, Smead Capital Management, Clough Capital Partners, Management, Shale Research, XTO Energy, RBC Capital Markets, ExxonMobil, Rystad Energy, Thomson Locations: New York, Ukraine, U.S, Americas, Guyana
Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. He said oil and gas reserves are depleting at 5-7% annually, and output will decline if companies stop investing to replace them. The Canadian government has not finalised subsidies for projects to capture and sequester emissions and is developing a cap on oil and gas emissions. Not all oil companies are reducing spending on production. Greater oil production could provide the revenue to pursue net-zero aims, Rath said.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Darren Woods, Amin Nasser, ", Aditya Ravi, Rystad's, Alex Pourbaix, Pourbaix, that's, Chris Severson, Baker, Omar Farouk Ibrahim, Ranjit Rath, Rath, Carlos Travassos, Yrjo Koskinen, Rod Nickel, Nia Williams, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, World Petroleum Congress, Exxon Mobil, Aramco, Rystad Energy, International Energy Agency, Cenovus Energy, Canadian, European Union, Deloitte, African Petroleum Producers ' Organization, United Nations, Oil India, Investment, Petrobras, PETR4, University of Calgary, Thomson Locations: Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Rights CALGARY , Alberta, Calgary, United States, Paris, Pembina, India, SA, Calgary , Alberta
Investors had expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary cuts into October, but the three-month extension was unexpected. "These bullish moves significantly tighten the global oil market and can only result in one thing: higher oil prices worldwide," Jorge Leon, senior vice president at consultancy Rystad Energy, said in a note. The Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts are on top of the April cut agreed by several OPEC+ producers, which extends to the end of 2024. "The decision to prolong output cuts underscores their dedication to price stability in a challenging market environment," Sugandha Sachdeva, executive director and chief strategist at Acme Investment Advisors, said. Sachdeva, however, added that the annual refinery maintenance period in the U.S. from September to October could limit demand for crude and potentially act as a restraining factor on rising oil prices.
Persons: Jorge Leon, Leon, Alexander Novak, Novak, Sachdeva, Mohi Narayan, Arathy Somasekhar, Christopher Cushing, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, . West Texas, Rystad Energy, Saudi, Acme Investment Advisors, Thomson Locations: Volgograd, Russia, DELHI, Saudi Arabia, West, U.S, New Delhi, Houston
Lower Kuwaiti exports follow cuts from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia that have pushed Brent prices close to $90 a barrel and left little wriggle room for Asia's refiners, reliant on the Middle East for more than two-thirds of crude imports. Chinese refiners, which have invested heavily in new plants designed to process sour oil, are especially exposed. Discounted oil from Russia has eased some of the pain, replacing some Kuwaiti supply, largely to China and India. Additionally, Kuwait's joint venture 230,000 bpd Duqm refinery in Oman is scheduled to start operation by end-2023, which could reduce Kuwaiti crude exports by a further 100,000 bpd to 200,000 bpd in 2024, the consultancies said. Formosa could replace Kuwaiti supply with grades such as Iraq's Basra Medium, Qatar's al-Shaheen and Oman crude, Lin said, adding it can also process U.S. light sweet crude.
Persons: Brent, Asia's, Janiv Shah, Sun Jianan, Al Zour, consultancies, KPC, Lin, al, James Forbes, Muyu Xu, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Kuwait Oil Tanker, Oil, Companies, Lower, Saudi, United Arab, Rystad Energy, P, Kuwait Petroleum Corp, Shenghong, Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp, FGE, Dubai, Brent, Thomson Locations: Kuwait, Pier, Companies Kuwait, SINGAPORE, OPEC, Lower Kuwaiti, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Taiwan, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, Oman, PetroChina's, Guangdong, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Formosa, Basra, Shaheen, Brent, Dubai
Key hurdles for the two projects include the country's caps on domestic gas prices, limits on gas exports and the high costs for carbon capture and storage - required for new gas projects to help fight global warming. Last month, Shell (SHEL.L) said it would sell its holding in the Masela project to Indonesia's Pertamina and Malaysia's Petronas, while Chevron (CVX.N) agreed to sell its stake in the IDD project to Italy's Eni (ENI.MI). Reuters GraphicsNEW TERMS NEEDEDOnce one of the world's top five liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, Indonesia's LNG exports have halved in the past decade, Kpler data showed. The country has not approved a major oil or gas project since 2016 - the expansion of BP's (BP.L) Tangguh LNG plant. The current formula for splitting revenue between the government and investors in gas projects sets the base rate at 48% for companies.
Persons: magnifier, Dado Ruvic, Benny Lubiantara, Andrew Harwood, Wood Mackenzie, SKK Migas, Benny, Prateek Pandey, Takayuki Ueda, Naing, Inpex's Ueda, Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina Munthe, Emily Chow, Yuka Obayashi, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Indonesia, Shell, Chevron, Indonesia Deepwater Development, Petronas, Eni, Essential Services, Reuters, Indonesia Petroleum Association, Rystad Energy, BMI Research, Fitch Group, Tcf, Thomson Locations: Indonesia, JAKARTA, Jakarta, Chevron, Tokyo, Masela, Singapore
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage units at Grain LNG importation terminal, operated by National Grid Plc, on the Isle of Grain on August 22, 2022 in Rochester, England. Energy analysts believe the bullish momentum for European natural gas prices will persist over the coming months after futures jumped almost 40% on Wednesday. Fears over possible supply disruption in Australia saw the front-month gas price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, hit its highest level since mid-June on Wednesday. The surge in gas prices came on news of a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility strike at major plants in Australia as workers campaign for higher pay and improved job security. "Looking ahead, we expect the bullish outlook for gas prices to continue with fewer LNG imports to Europe, planned maintenance for Norwegian pipelines and continued heatwaves in multiple regions globally," Luo said.
Persons: Luo Organizations: National Grid, Energy, New York Mercantile Exchange, Rystad Energy, Woodside Energy Group, LNG Locations: Isle, Rochester , England, Australia, U.S, Europe, Chevron, China, Japan
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and consultancy Rystad Energy have brought forward forecasts of China's peak gasoline demand by about a year to 2024, while Chinese state majors PetroChina and Sinopec (600028.SS) see it in 2025. The earlier halt in gasoline demand growth in the world's No. Reuters GraphicsAs a result of accelerating EV sales, Paris-based IEA now expects Chinese gasoline demand to peak in 2024 at about 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing forward an earlier projection of demand plateauing in 2025/2026. The research arm of China's state refiner CNPC expects gasoline demand to peak in 2025, citing accelerating sales of EVs, and sees gasoline demand shrinking 2.3% annually between 2026 and 2030. China's massive move into petrochemicals is already causing a glut globally, prompting companies to shift investments to high-end energy transition materials.
Persons: Aly, refiners, Toril Bosoni, EV's, Gaurav Batra, Mukesh Sahdev, Ma Yongsheng, Mohi Narayan, Carman Chew, Matthew Chye, Chen Aizhu, Zoey Zhang, Andrew Hayley, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Porsche, Auto Shanghai, REUTERS, International Energy Agency, Rystad Energy, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, China, Shenghong Petrochemical, Energy, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Jan, Sinopec, Asia, Reuters Graphics China, Paris, U.S, North America, India, Sun, New Delhi, Singapore, Beijing
The new market-based pricing system will also encourage distributors like ENN and China Gas that are expanding into global gas trading to look at importing LNG. "The policy will help the whole (gas) distribution sector and restore utilities' profitability," said Tan Yuwei, general manager of capital management at China Gas Holdings. Shares for listed gas utility companies briefly reversed this year's trend downwards after the policy was announced, but they remain under pressure from lacklustre industrial demand and China's struggling economy. China in recent years has liberalized natural gas prices by allowing distributors to pass costs on to industrial and commercial customers, although Beijing maintained tight control over household prices to avoid a consumer backlash. "This policy reform will result in more reasonable downstream gas prices in China, which will encourage city gas utilities to increase purchases from upstream importers," said Yi Cui, an analyst with consultancy Rystad Energy, referring to Chinese national oil companies.
Persons: COVID, Tan Yuwei, Tan, Yi Cui, Chen Aizhu, Emily Chow, Andrew Hayley, Tom Hogue Organizations: ENN Energy Holdings, HK, China Gas Holdings, China Resources Gas, Shanghai Gas, Chongqing Gas, Changchun Gas, China Gas, National Development, Reform Commission, China Gas Association, Rystad Energy, Beijing, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, BEIJING, China, Changchun, Qingdao, Nanjing, Shijiangzhuang, Lanzhou, Hubei, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Beijing, Hebei, Singapore
But OPEC ministers and executives from oil companies told a two-day conference in Vienna governments needed to turn their attention from supply to demand. But record profits from oil and gas last year and relatively low returns from renewable energy prompted some investors to demand companies renew their focus on oil and gas to raise profits. DEMAND HITS RECORDMeanwhile, oil demand has reached new peaks of above 102 million barrels per day this year, recovering from a dip during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is expected to rise further, driven by strong demand from Asia and for petrochemical production, oil executives and analysts said. The oil industry has long said lower investment in oil and gas in the absence of a reduction in oil demand will only lead to higher prices.
Persons: Bernard Looney, Wael Sawan, Abu, Sultan al Jaber, Patrick Pouyanne, Jean Paul Prates, Prates, Amin Nasser, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Barbara Lewis Organizations: BP, of, Petroleum, Reuters, Bloomberg, Wall Street, Companies, Shell, BBC, Investments, Rystad Energy, Petrobras, PETR4, Saudi Aramco, Thomson Locations: Vienna, VIENNA, Ukraine, Asia, Abu Dhabi
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 44 cents, or 0.6%, at $69.44. However, the challenge has raised questions about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power and concerns about possible disruption of Russian oil supply. Consultancy Rystad Energy said in a note late on Sunday that it did not expect to see a significant increase in oil prices as a result of the "short-lived event". Goldman Sachs analysts said markets could price a moderately higher probability of domestic volatility in Russia leading to supply disruptions. "China's economic growth has been a nightmare for commodity markets, particularly in oil and industrial metals," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said in a note.
Persons: Brent, Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Rystad, Helima Croft, Putin, Goldman Sachs, Tina Teng, Florence Tan, Jamie Freed, David Goodman Organizations: SINGAPORE, . West Texas, Consultancy Rystad Energy, RBC Capital Markets, White, U.S . Federal, CMC, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russian, Russia, Rostov, U.S
Production and sales of EVs in May grew by 53.7% and 71.2% respectively year-on-year, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed. Demand from the energy storage sector, the second biggest user of the battery metal, is also growing rapidly. "We are seeing the energy storage market is boosting capacity expansion of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries and cathode materials, which in turn sends pressure to the price of lithium carbonate," Zou said. Zou expects the lithium carbonate price in China to average 300,000 yuan a ton this year. "The May growth seen in the auto market, boosted by short-term policy support, is unlikely to last and lithium prices might fall below 200,000 yuan within this year," he added.
Persons: Price, Susan Zou, Zou, Yang Jing, Chen Junquan, Chen, Siyi Liu, Dominique Patton, Andrew Hayley, Emma Rumney Organizations: China Passenger Car Association, Cell, Rystad Energy, EV, Beijing, China Corporate Research, Fitch, Economic Research Institute, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, Shanghai
[1/2] General view of Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. Both contracts extended gains of more than 2% on Friday after the Saudi energy ministry said the kingdom's output would drop to 9 million bpd in July from about 10 million bpd in May. Consultancy Rystad Energy said the additional Saudi cut is likely to deepen the market deficit to more than 3 million bpd in July, which could push prices higher in the coming weeks. "The immediate market impact of this Saudi cut is likely lower, as drawing inventories takes time, and the market likely already put some meaningful probability on a cut today," the bank's analysts added. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was allowed to raise output targets by 200,000 bpd to 3.22 million bpd to reflect its larger production capacity.
Persons: Ahmed Jadallah, Brent, WTI, keener, Suvro Sarkar, Bjarne Schieldrop, Goldman Sachs, Noah Browning, Florence Tan, Emily Chow, David Goodman Organizations: REUTERS, Saudi, Brent, . West Texas, Saudi Arabia's, Organization of, Petroleum, DBS Bank, OPEC, Rystad Energy, United Arab Emirates, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Arabia, Russia, Nigeria, Angola, UAE
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.41, or 2%, to $73.15 a barrel, after touching an intraday high of $75.06 a barrel. The group, known as OPEC+, pumps around 40% of the world's crude and has in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand. "The oil market now looks like it will be even tighter in the second half of the year." Consultancy Rystad Energy said the additional cut by Saudi is likely to deepen the market deficit to more than 3 million bpd in July, which could push prices higher in the coming weeks. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates was allowed to raise output targets by around 200,000 bpd to 3.22 million bpd.
Persons: Baker Hughes, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Florence Tan, Diane Craft, Sonali Paul Organizations: Saudi, Brent, . West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ, Rystad Energy, United Arab, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Russia, OPEC, Nigeria, Angola, United Arab Emirates, UAE, United States
Spot lithium carbonate prices assessed by Fastmarkets fell to 260,000 yuan ($38,079.06) per tonne this week, less than half the price quoted last November. Five analysts polled by Reuters last month had expected the price would drop to 300,000 yuan by the end of this year. "The unprecedented price cuts among traditional auto makers will eat EVs' market share in the short term, hitting lithium demand further," said Vicky Zhao, a Beijing-based senior analyst at Fastmarkets. Lithium prices in the United States and Europe have also fallen, albeit less sharply, amid rising but still tight supplies and a stronger outlook for EV sales. ($1 = 6.8279 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Siyi Liu and Dominique Patton; Editing by Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Rystad Energy sees the global market deficit of lithium shrinking to around 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) this year, from 76,000 tonnes LCE in 2022. Out to 2025 it expects lithium supply to grow on average by 34% a year against an annual demand growth rate of 25%. MINERS UNFAZEDThe decline in lithium prices in China, the world's biggest consumer, has hit lithium producers overseas. LITHIUM CARBONATE SINKSThe price decline has been sharp. "A lithium carbonate price of 200,000-300,000 yuan per tonne is where both upstream and downstream will feel comfortable," said Rystad's Zou.
The Biden administration's $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act devotes billions of dollars for tax credits and direct payments for solar, wind, battery and other energy sources to move electric power supplies from fossil fuels. Regulated utilities including Duke Energy Corp (DUK.N) and Dominion Energy Inc (D.N) begin reporting fourth-quarter results this week and analysts expect them to lay out plans for capitalizing on the IRA. NextEra, the biggest U.S. generator of renewable energy, has a backlog of 16,500 megawatts of renewables projects. The parent of Florida Power and Light has added 25% to that backlog in the last year, executives have said. Solar projects in sunny states in the south and southwest and wind projects in the Midwest are among the best situated to collect IRA dollars, she said.
A total of 95 cargoes carrying LNG departed last month from U.S. ports mainly bound for customers in Europe, which received 68% of exports. In December, U.S. LNG exports had increased to 7.22 million tonnes as producers made an effort to supply as much as possible to Europe. Clients there took 79% of total exports that month. Delays to restart the second-largest U.S. LNG plant, Freeport LNG, after a fire have also created limitations to export the superchilled gas since mid-2022. Freeport LNG on Tuesday asked U.S. regulators for approval to supply natural gas to one of the three idled units at its Texas plant, a milestone in efforts to restore production after a seven-month outage.
[1/4] Workers stand next to a drilling rig in Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina November 3, 2022. It holds the world's second-largest shale gas reserves and the fourth-largest shale oil deposits. Reuters Graphics'ABOUT TO COLLAPSE'On the ground in the key Vaca Muerta shale town of Anelo the signs of strain are clear. Local and regional demand is not enough," said Ricardo Markous, president of Tecpetrol, which operates the huge Fortin de Piedra field in Vaca Muerta. There are currently around eight active fracking crews in Vaca Muerta compared to nearly 280 in the United States, Rystad said.
Canada is in the midst of building a large terminal to export LNG, but its completion is two years away. Canadian gas production is on track to reach a record 18 bcfd in 2022 and 19 bcfd in 2023, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy. Pipelines are also constrained in Canada due to swift production growth, particularly TC Energy Corp's (TRP.TO) NGTL pipeline system that ships gas around and out of western Canada. In August, gas prices in Alberta briefly turned negative because of bottlenecks stemming from NGTL maintenance. U.S. LNG exports are expected to reach 10.6 bcfd in 2022 and 12.3 bcfd in 2023, according to federal estimates.
Putin said Thursday that Western plans to introduce oil price caps would have “grave consequences” for energy markets. The oil price cap aims to amend that policy. Shipping services and insurance could be provided to tankers transporting Russian oil — so long as it’s purchased at or below the price cap established by Western nations. “But reality will be different.”Some analysts think the price cap will ultimately be less important than Europe’s oil embargo. “Due to the EU oil embargo and the planned price cap on oil from Russia, oil production there is likely to be significantly curtailed,” Commerzbank said in a note to clients.
Europe still can't live without Russian LNG exports
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
London CNN Business —Europe may be closer than ever to breaking its energy dependence on Moscow, but it still can’t live without one type of Russian natural gas. Russian imports doubled in the year to September to 1.2 million tons, Rystad data shows. The majority of the Russian LNG imports come from privately owned Novatek, the country’s second-largest natural gas producer after Gazprom. “I expect that Russian LNG will continue to play an important role in filling European storage going into winter of 2023,” he told CNN Business. “[Europe] would rather get whatever [it] can in terms of Russian pipeline gas and Russian LNG… it would take a lot before [it] would think about sanctioning gas or LNG from Russia,” Ramesh said.
Eastern Canada, with its strong electricity-generating winds and short shipping distance, is a prime potential source for green hydrogen. Most hydrogen output uses natural gas or coal, called gray hydrogen, but companies want to produce green hydrogen without emissions by separating hydrogen from oxygen in water using wind-powered electrolyzers. Green hydrogen is typically more expensive, but soaring natural gas prices have elevated gray hydrogen production costs above those of green hydrogen, according to an October report. GERMANY-CANADA HYDROGEN PARTNERSHIPGermany and Canada signed a non-binding agreement in August to ship clean Canadian hydrogen to Germany by 2025. "We believe in green energy, but we don’t believe in destroying nature for a profit or supplying Germany," Rowe said.
LNG prices recently have cooled with Europe's gas storage levels rising to over 90% of target capacity and a slow start to winter. In Asia, however, a declaration of force majeure on gas supplies by Malaysian state-energy company Petronas (PETR.KL) has LNG customers in Japan scrambling for alternative cargoes. A total of 88 tankers carrying 6.27 million tonnes of LNG departed in October from U.S. ports, mostly heading to Europe, the data showed. LNG shipments from U.S. ports fell slightly to 6.27 million tonnes in October, with more cargoes going to Asia, where customers of Malaysian liquefied gas scramble to source alternative supplies. The shutdown of the second-largest U.S. LNG export plant has hit many customers, including Japan's biggest LNG buyer, JERA, which last week said it will book a $751-million loss mostly due to higher purchase costs.
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