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New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump’s trade agenda amounts to a tripling-down of the trade war he waged during his first term in office. That’s nearly five times the total cost as a share of GDP from the 2018-2019 US-China trade war. Trump’s tariff proposals would cost the typical middle-income household at least $1,700 a year, the researchers found. Those aren’t comparable numbers,” Clausing said, referring to the amount of imports targeted by Biden and by Trump tariffs. Likewise, the US International Trade Commission found in a 2023 study that US importers “bore nearly the full cost” of tariffs.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, That’s, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, Clausing, aren’t, , Joe Biden, , Biden, ” Biden hasn’t, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, ” Clausing, Karoline Leavitt, , Bidenomics, ” Leavitt, Leavitt, Moody’s, Mark Zandi, ” Goldman Sachs, ” ‘, ” Chris Krueger Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, UCLA School of Law, CNN, ” Biden, Biden, Treasury Department, US International Trade Commission, , Cowen’s Washington Research Group Locations: New York, China, Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, United States, U.S, Washington
New York CNN —Major business leaders and economists are worried about America’s growing debt problem. Last week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expressed fear that a crisis is looming and that unchecked deficit spending could explode. The big picture: Between the Trump-era tax cuts and Covid-era stimulus programs, the national debt has exploded in recent years. Trump Media (DJT) reported a loss of $327.6 million during the first three months of the year, compared with a loss of $210,300 a year earlier. The company generated just $770,500 of revenue, marking the second-straight quarter where its revenue totaled less than $1 million.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , ” Dimon, , Ray Dalio, Columbia Business School Glenn Hubbard, Joe Biden’s, Jason Thomas, Carlyle, ” Thomas, Hanna Ziady, Liz Truss, Treasuries, Hubbard, Thomas, it’s, Donald Trump, Matt Egan, Devin Nunes, Martin Gruenberg, Elisabeth Buchwald, ” Gruenberg, Sen, Sherrod Brown,  Gruenberg, He’s, Cleary Gottlieb Steen, Gruenberg’s, Gruenberg Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, JPMorgan, Sky News, Financial, Columbia Business School, United, CNN, IMF, Congressional, Office, Peterson Foundation, Treasury, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, Truth Social, Company, Big Tech, ” Trump Media, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Senate Banking Committee, FDIC, Hamilton Locations: New York, Bridgewater, United States, , United, United Kingdom
The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. Concern over such eye-popping numbers had been largely confined to partisan rancor on Capitol Hill as well as from watchdogs like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Uncharted territory for debt and deficitsIndeed, the CBO numbers are ominous, as they outline the likely path of debt and deficits. Surging budget deficits have been driving the debt, and the CBO only expects that to get worse. "The huge obvious problem is that the U.S. federal debt is now on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory," analysts at Wolfe Research said in a recent note.
Persons: Greenlee Beal, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, hasn't, Wolfe Organizations: U.S, Capitol, Wall, CBO, Union, JPMorgan Chase, Sky News, Bridgewater Associates, Financial Times, Treasury Department, Wolfe Research, U.S ., Federal Reserve Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, Amsterdam, London, America, U.S
London CNN —The chorus of voices warning about the dangers of record US government debt is growing louder. In the past 24 hours, JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund, have weighed in with concerns about America’s debt pile. Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York in April 2024. Dimon acknowledged that debt-fueled government spending, including pandemic stimulus, had been one of the reasons behind robust growth in the world’s biggest economy. Debt servicing costs have also soared, on the back of higher official interest rates, leaving less money for public services.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Dimon, you’ll, Dalio, I’m, , Victor J, we’ve, ” Dimon, Liz Truss Organizations: London CNN, JPMorgan, Sky News, Treasury, Financial Times, International Monetary Fund, Congressional, Office, Bridgewater Associates, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Treasury Department, IMF, US, Federal Locations: Russia, New York, America, Covid, United, United Kingdom
New York CNN —If voters return former President Donald Trump to the White House, he’s promised to launch an unprecedented crackdown on immigration and even conduct mass deportations. Trump recently told Time that he would aim to deport 15 million to 20 million people, perhaps by using the National Guard. Even though consumer prices are no longer skyrocketing, the cumulative impact of three years of high inflation is painful. “Most Americans view high inflation and high prices as unfair. But immigration remains a major concern for voters in the 2024 election and Trump has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.
Persons: Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, , Mark Zandi, “ It’s, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, You’d, , Karoline Leavitt, Joe Biden “, ” Leavitt, , Joe Biden, Zandi, Trump’s, criminologists, Biden, Jerome Powell, Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, National Guard, Federal Reserve, CNN, RSM, Trump, Social Security, University of Michigan, Labor Department ., The Hamilton, , Hamilton, Security, Congressional, Office, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, China, Covid, Mexico, United States
The next U.S. president will face trillions in expiring tax breaks. While President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have shared early proposals, the federal budget deficit could complicate plans, experts say. Many TCJA tax breaks are temporary and slated to sunset after 2025 unless Congress passes legislation to extend them. "It's a massive tax cliff," said Erica York, senior economist and research manager with the Tax Foundation's Center for Federal Tax Policy. Here's why prices still aren't going downHowever, the federal budget deficit will be a "huge sticking point" amid tax negotiations, York said.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Erica York, Biden, York, Howard Gleckman Organizations: Trump, Tax, Center, Federal Tax, Finance, Congressional, Urban, Brookings Tax Locations: Washington
Wall Street is under-appreciating the growth outlook for the defense sector, according to Citi. Nonetheless, Citi remains confident in "the bull case for defense." Defense companies historically trade at a premium to the rest of the market when defense budgets grow, Gursky said. Here are some of Citi's favorite defense picks, all of which have a buy rating from the bank. Citi's $525 price target implies almost 12% upside from Friday's close.
Persons: Jason Gursky, Gursky, Leidos, Lockheed Martin Organizations: Citi, P Aerospace, Defense, Citigroup, Leidos Holdings, Lockheed, SAIC, International Corps Locations: Friday's
Immigrant workers are helping boost the U.S. labor market
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Kate Rogers | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The strong jobs market has been bolstered post-pandemic by strength in the immigrant workforce in America. And as Americans age out of the labor force and birth rates remain low, economists and the Federal Reserve are touting the importance of immigrant workers for overall future economic growth. Immigrant workers made up 18.6% of the workforce last year, a new record, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Despite the U.S. adding fewer-than-expected jobs in April, the labor force participation rate for foreign-born workers ticked up slightly, to 66%. "We don't have enough workers participating in the labor force and our birth rate has dropped down 2% last year from 2022 to 2023.
Persons: Jennie Murray, Phillip Swagel, Swagel Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Workers, National Immigration, Congressional Locations: America
Within weeks, the two-year-old US Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) is set to run out of funds, and Congress appears unlikely to authorize more. Even as many older and rural Americans may be thrust into financial hardship due to the ACP’s collapse, indigenous communities could fare even worse. Because tribal members can now work remotely, they are no longer forced to move away from their communities to seek opportunity, they told CNN. For example, Mitchell said, after decades of decline in Mohawk fluency, a growing number of tribal members are now involved in online language immersion. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) Seth Wenig/AP/FileInstead, some say, the collapse of the ACP will become another stain on the US government’s centuries-long track record of breaking promises to tribal communities.
Persons: Kelly, , , “ That’s, ” Kelly, Mike Johnson, Pennsylvania Democratic Sen, John Fetterman, Fetterman’s, Jonathan Nez, “ I’ve, Loren King, Geoffrey Starks, ” Starks, Allyson Mitchell, Mitchell, Nez, ” Nez, Derrick VanSoolen’s, Choctaw, ” VanSoolen, they’re, Bois, Randy Long, Gary Johnson, Paul, Seth Wenig, I’ll Organizations: Washington CNN, Mohawk, CNN, Connectivity Program, FCC, Pennsylvania Democratic, Federal Communications Commission, Treasury, US Federal Communications Commission, Mohawk Networks, Navajo, ACP, Emergency, Program, Choctaw Nation, Bois Forte, Paul Bunyan Communications Locations: St, Lawrence, New York, Canadian, Mohawk, America, Navajo, Oklahoma, Oklahoma , Arizona, New Mexico, Alaska, South Dakota, Arizona, Minnesota, Regis
Interest rates have risen. According to The Wall Street Journal, America is expected to spend $870 billion, or 3.1 percent of gross domestic product, this year on interest payments on the federal debt. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the government will spend more on interest payments than on the entire defense budget. When money is tight, as it is now, government borrowing competes with private borrowing, driving interest rates up for everybody. ratio results in an increase in interest rates of two-tenths to three-tenths of a percentage point.
Organizations: Wall Street Journal, Federal Budget, Social Security Locations: America
Another month, another burst of better-than-expected job gains. Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February. Expectations of a recession among experts, once widespread, are now increasingly rare. It was the 39th straight month of job growth. And employment levels are now more than three million greater than forecast by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just before the pandemic shock.
Organizations: Labor Department Locations: U.S
A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.
Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico
Instead, on Friday, yet another jobs report defied expectations. “Today’s jobs report raises the possibility that rather than slowing down, job growth might be holding steady,” Nick Bunker, Indeed Hiring Lab’s economic research director for North America, said in a statement. Last month’s job growth was driven by industries such as health care (+72,300 jobs); government (+71,000 jobs); leisure and hospitality (+49,000 jobs); and construction (+39,000 jobs). President Joe Biden touted March’s jobs report Friday. With today’s report of 303,000 new jobs in March, we have passed the milestone of 15 million jobs created since I took office.
Persons: Nick Bunker, Joe Biden, , ” Biden, , Greg Daco, , ” Daco, we’ve, Erica Groshen, ” Brett House, Daco, Price Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, North, , CNN Business, Cornell University, CNN, Brookings Institution, Congressional, Columbia Business School, Fed, Labor Locations: New York, North America, EY, United States
Griffin noted that 2023 was a difficult year for the hedge fund industry and expected the medium-term to "remain challenging." Citadel and Griffin's market maker, Citadel Securities, received over 100,000 applications for full-time jobs and internships this year, Griffin said. "We take pride in having built one of the most formidable teams in hedge fund history," he said. The remarkable achievements of our portfolio managers are a testament to the constructive and empowering culture at Citadel. Assembling the Premier Team in Hedge Fund HistoryWe take pride in having built one of the most formidable teams in hedge fund history.
Persons: Griffin, Kenneth C Organizations: Business, Disney World, Citadel, Citadel Securities, Citadel Wellington LLC, Team, Congressional, U.S, LCH Investments Locations: United States
Read previewAmerica has a real retirement crisis on its hands — and there are three things it can do to help solve it, according to BlackRock chief Larry Fink. In his annual letter to investors, the CEO of the world's biggest asset manager pointed to an unfolding crisis for current and future retirees. 46% of Americans aged 55-65 don't have any cash invested in a personal retirement account, according to 2022 Census data. Help retirees spend their savingsMost retirees are uncomfortable dipping into their pile of savings. Give young people a reason to want to investFear is one of the main obstacles preventing young people from investing in their retirement, Fink said.
Persons: , Larry Fink, Fink, " Fink, AARP —, BlackRock, I've, Gen Zers Organizations: Service, BlackRock, Center for Retirement Research, Business, Security, Congressional, Office, Insurance Trust Fund, Social Security, AARP, University of Michigan, America, McKinsey & Company Locations: America, Australia, BlackRock
The US government's ballooning interest payments are eating a hole in its budget, they said. "We are headed toward record spending levels, record deficit levels, record debt levels, record interest payments — the list goes and on," Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Fox Business this week. While the US isn't at imminent risk of that kind of chaos, bond markets could "snap back" if the government's interest payments soar to $1 trillion in 2026 as expected, Swagel said. AdvertisementHowever, she noted that some experts on Wall Street were "incredibly worried" about the national debt and interest payments. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has also sounded the alarm on debt payments.
Persons: , MacGuineas, Philip Swagel, Liz Truss, Swagel, bitcoin, Jim Rogers, George Soros, He's, Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal Budget, Fox Business, Congressional, Office, Financial Times, Bank of, CBO, Wall, DoubleLine
CNN —Medicare shelled out $5.7 billion on Ozempic and other similar diabetes drugs in 2022, up from $57 million in 2018, according to a new KFF analysis. Medicare began covering Ozempic for people with diabetes in 2018, with Rybelsus and Mounjaro joining in 2019 and 2022, respectively. The KFF study examined gross spending, which does not take into account any rebates paid by drug manufacturers that would lower Medicare spending. The drugs’ popularity and prices could end up raising costs for both the federal government and Medicare enrollees broadly. Medicare could choose Ozempic and Rybelsus for its drug negotiation program as early as 2025, KFF wrote, which could lower spending on the medications.
Persons: Mounjaro, ” KFF, KFF Organizations: CNN, Medicare, US Food and Drug Administration, Congressional
In an interview with the Financial Times, CBO director Phillip Swagel said US government debt — which the Treasury Department puts at nearly $35 trillion — is on an “unprecedented” trajectory. UK government bonds, or gilts, and the pound sold off sharply, partly in response to plans by Truss to issue more debt in order to pay for tax cuts. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. He has promised to extend his 2017 tax cuts and has also spoken about reducing the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%. “I will make the Trump tax cuts the largest tax cut in history,” he said last month at the Black Conservative Federation’s Honors Gala in South Carolina.
Persons: Phillip Swagel, Liz, , Truss, ” Swagel, Dave Ramsden, Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden, Fitch, , Trump Organizations: London CNN, Congressional, Financial Times, Treasury Department, CNN, Bank of England, Democrats, Trump, Black Conservative, US Treasury, Federal, CBO Locations: United States, United Kingdom, South Carolina
Obamacare — signed into law on March 23, 2010, although many of its provisions didn’t kick in until 2014 — you probably wouldn’t have been able to get health insurance. Today you can, thanks to provisions in the law that prevent insurers from discriminating based on medical history and that subsidize insurance premiums for many Americans. And President Biden strengthened the program, notably by extending provisions eliminating the “cliff” that cut off subsides for many middle-class Americans. and almost succeeded in passing a bill that the Congressional Budget Office estimated would have left 22 million more Americans uninsured by 2026. wins control of Congress and the White House in November, it will once again try to bring back the bad old days of health coverage.
Persons: Obamacare —, Biden, Donald Trump, John McCain —, Trump Organizations: Republicans, Congressional, White House, Republican Party
New York CNN —Dealmaking is the lifeblood of Wall Street. But analysts say that funding cuts in the plan could end up harming mergers and acquisitions on Wall Street, squashing hopes of a recovery in dealmaking. The bad news: Recent regulations and proposed budget cuts threaten to step on those green shoots before they’re able to flower. Why it matters: Dealmaking isn’t just good for Wall Street. Shares of the stock are down nearly 30% so far this year after its seemingly nonstop streak of bad luck.
Persons: New York CNN — Dealmaking, Joe Biden, squashing, It’s, Goldman Sachs, , Lucille Jones, Jones, Mitch Berlin, Biden, , ” Berlin, That’s, Hewlett Packard, , TikTok —, Brian Fung, TikTok, Shou Chew, Nadya Okamoto, Okamoto, Teddy Siegel, Siegel, David Goldman, LATAM, it’s, Max Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, LSEG, Federal Reserve, Federal Trade Commission, Department of Justice, Congressional, Office, CNN, Discover Financial Services, Hewlett, Juniper Networks, Target, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, The National Transportation Safety, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA, NTSB Locations: New York, dealmaking, EY, Berlin, , LSEG, Australia, New Zealand, Newark
Undocumented immigration has boosted the labor market, helping steer the US away from a recession, some experts say. Morgan Stanley's chief US economist has also recently cited undocumented immigration as a positive labor-market force. AdvertisementHere's a question that's been lurking beneath the stellar economic resilience in the US: how has the labor market stayed so strong? "It has boosted the labor force, it has boosted supply for labor, it has boosted job gains. AdvertisementThe labor market has recorded gains stronger than that, posting an addition of 275,000 jobs in February.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, , Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, Watson, Ellen Zentner, Zentner Organizations: Brookings Institution, Service, Congressional, Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Brookings
I’d certainly rather fly into Newark than into the many European airports where you still have to take a bus from the plane to the terminal. Why do U.S. airports have so many more amenities than they used to? (The flying experience can still be miserable because of security lines, but that’s another issue.) The obvious answer is that they’re catering to their clientele, but surely that was always true. And over the past 40 years, high-income Americans — we’re talking the top 10 percent or 20 percent, not the super-elite that doesn’t fly commercial at all — have seen much bigger income gains than the middle class.
Persons: I’d, — we’re Organizations: Newark Liberty International, Congressional, Office Locations: Newark, U.S
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the increase in foreign-born workers is "taking pressure off the economy." The growth in foreign-born workers comes amid a contentious immigration policy debate in the U.S. Immigrants' share of the labor force has increased since 1996, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting such data. A growing population and labor force are key components of a healthy economy and the nation's ability to pay its bills, economists said. In other words, the economy is both absorbing immigrants and generating job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, the institute said.
Persons: Mark Zandi, it's, Alejandro Mayorkas, John Moore, Muzaffar Chishti, Jack Malde, Qian Weizhong, Steven Camarota, Camarota, Paul Ratje, Eric Thayer, Malde, EPI, Zandi, There's, Luis Alvarez Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, Republicans, U.S, Department of Homeland, U.S . Border Patrol, U.S . Department of Homeland, Getty, Migration Policy Institute, CNBC, Foreign, U.S . Immigrants, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research Center, Social Security, Congressional, Office, Center, Immigration, . Border Patrol, Getty Images, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Center for Immigration Studies, Afp, Bloomberg, Economic Policy Institute, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine, Digitalvision Locations: U.S, Mexico, Eagle Pass , Texas, San Diego , California, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Paso, Ciudad Juarez , Mexico, Los Angeles
The U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic has been stronger and more durable than many experts had expected, and a rebound in immigration is a big reason. A resumption in visa processing in 2021 and 2022 jump-started employment, allowing foreign-born workers to fill some holes in the labor force that persisted across industries and locations after the pandemic shutdowns. Immigrants also address a longer-term need: replenishing the work force, a key to meeting labor demands as birthrates decline and older people retire. International instability, economic crises, war and natural disasters have brought a new surge of arrivals who could help close the still-elevated gap between labor demand and job candidates. But that potential economic dividend must contend with the incendiary politics, logistical hurdles and administrative backlogs that the surge has created.
Organizations: Office
House Republican hardliners' efforts to stonewall a budget deal ahead of a looming government shutdown could risk triggering automatic spending cuts later this spring that may put pressure on the U.S. economy's already fraught recovery. A full-year budget deal to avert the FRA cuts appears increasingly unlikely, amid staunch opposition from the House's ultraconservative wing. Freedom Caucus derailmentMembers of the House Freedom Caucus, a coalition of hardline conservatives, have been working to derail a permanent budget. Instead, they want to extend the current temporary spending resolution through the rest of the fiscal year, ensuring the FRA's spending cuts are triggered on April 30. But if the FRA's automatic spending cuts take effect, they could rattle the broader economy's teetering recovery.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Jake Sullivan, economy's, Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Hakeem Jeffries, Jan, Johnson, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, McConnell, Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, Sen, Patty Murray Organizations: National Security, U.S, Capitol, House Republican, Congressional Research Service, Caucus, Democrat, Freedom Caucus, Congressional Locations: Washington ,, stonewall, D
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