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☆ Uptick in European inflation clouds outlook for interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Inflation in Europe has ticked up for the first time in five months, casting doubt on the possibility of a steady stream of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the next few months. The European Central Bank began hiking rates in July 2022 to curb runaway inflation sparked by the reopening of the world’s economies following the pandemic as well as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “May’s increases (in inflation) won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates next week. All 82 economists polled by Reuters ahead of Friday’s inflation data expected the ECB to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point next week. Over two-thirds, 55 of 82, expected two more cuts this year, in September and December.

Persons: “, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Claus Vistesen, ” Organizations: London CNN, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Capital Economics, Pantheon Locations: Europe, Ukraine

☆ EU inflation will fall faster-than-expected, says Pantheon's Claus Vistesen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEU inflation will fall faster-than-expected, says Pantheon's Claus VistesenClaus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the implications of the election in the Netherlands, the ECB's rate hike outlook, and more.

Persons: Pantheon's Claus Vistesen Claus Vistesen Organizations: Pantheon Locations: Netherlands

Looking ahead, the ongoing pass-through of the European Central Bank's monetary policy tightening, still no reversal of the inventory cycle and new geopolitical uncertainties will continue weighing on the German economy, Brzeski said. "The German economy looks set to remain in the twilight zone between minor contraction and stagnation not only this year but also next year," Brzeski said. The contraction in the third quarter is not seen as an outlier as Commerzbank expects the German economy to contract again in the winter half-year. Economists will pay close attention to national inflation data from Germany and Spain, as they are published one day before the euro zone inflation data release. Euro zone inflation is expected to ease to 3.2% in October from 4.3% in September, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Persons: Arnd, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, optimists, Joerg Kraemer, Claus Vistesen, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Miral Fahmy, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Gross, Reuters, ING, European Central, Macroeconomics, Thomson Locations: Konstanz, Germany, Spain

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed 0.1% higher. That made Spain the first among the euro zone's large economies to have inflation fall below 2%. This followed hawkish comments from U.S. and European central bank policymakers at a European Central Bank meet-up in Sintra on Wednesday, where the underlying theme was that rates are likely to stay higher for longer. Adding to recent hawkish messages from central banks globally, Sweden's central bank raised its policy rate by a quarter percentage point as expected and forecast at least one more rate hike this year. The stock was the top gainer on France's blue-chip index (.FCHI), which rose 0.4% and also helped the automaker sub-index (.SXAP) climb 1.3%.

Persons: Germany's DAX, year's, Claus Vistesen, Daniela Hathorn, Amruta Khandekar, Matteo Allievi, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Rashmi Aich, Conor Humphries Organizations: Pantheon, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Capital.com, Renault, Belgian, Severn Trent, Thames, Semiconductor, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Spain, Sintra, Severn, Bengaluru, Gdansk

☆ German inflation bucks downward trend in June with higher-than-expected rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Maria Martinez | Thomson Reuters | Maria Martinez Is A Reuters Correspondent In Berlin Covering German Economics | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

French and euro zone inflation data is due on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect euro zone inflation to fall to 5.6% in June from 6.1% in May. "The June figures in Germany only interrupt the downward trend in the inflation rate and do not mark its end," said Ralph Solveen, senior economist at Commerzbank. Non-harmonized consumer prices rose 6.4% in June year-on-year, following a 6.1% rise in the previous month. The year-on-year rebound in German inflation midway through the second quarter is almost exclusively due to base effects from last year's temporarily-reduced rail fare, said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Persons: Analysts, Ralph Solveen, year's, Claus Vistesen, Carsten Brzeski, Commerzbank's Solveen, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Miranda Murray, Angus MacSwan, Conor Humphries Organizations: Union, Reuters, Commerzbank, Pantheon, European Central Bank, ING, Economists, ECB, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Spain, Italy, Germany

☆ Euro zone enters recession after Germany, Ireland growth revision
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The euro zone entered a recession in the first quarter of this year, and economists are not optimistic for the coming months. In a first reading, the agency had said the euro zone grew by 0.1% over the first three months of the year. Prior to its weak performance over January-March, the euro zone also contracted by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2022. "News that GDP contracted in the first quarter after all means that the euro zone has already fallen into a technical recession. Euro zone bond yields continued to trade largely higher Thursday following the data announcement, as several market players expect further monetary tightening.

Persons: Andrew Kenningham, Claus Vistesen Organizations: Capital Economics, Macroeconomics, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Germany, Europe, Ireland, Netherlands, Greece

☆ Eurozone slips into recession as revised data shows two quarters of falling output
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Olesya Dmitracova | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In the first three months of the year, economic output in the eurozone dropped 0.1% compared with the previous quarter, according to revised official data published Thursday. Across the European Union, gross domestic product ticked up 0.1% in the first quarter after falling 0.2% late last year. Commenting on the eurozone data, Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, said consumption by households had been “hit hard” by high prices and rising interest rates. US economy out in frontBoth the eurozone and the whole of the EU are now lagging the US economy. Earlier official estimates of the eurozone’s economic output pointed to a slight increase in the first quarter.

Persons: Andrew Kenningham, Frederik Ducrozet, Russia’s, Claus Vistesen, ” Organizations: London CNN, European Union, Capital Economics, Pictet Wealth Management, Organisation for Economic Co, Pantheon Macroeconomics, European Central Bank Locations: Europe, Ukraine, United States, downgrades, Germany, Europe’s, Ireland

☆ The Eurozone Slipped Into a Mild Recession Early in the Year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Liz Alderman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Spending in the eurozone fell 0.3 percent in the first three months of this year after falling 1 percent in the previous quarter. Across Europe, countries swiftly stockpiled energy reserves, and a mild winter, together with mass conservation efforts, helped avoid the worst. The strategy has helped drive down the price of energy, and inflation in the eurozone’s biggest economies climbed down from record highs. In May, the annual rate of inflation was 6.1 percent, the eurozone’s lowest level in more than a year. The International Monetary Fund has warned that European policymakers’ main challenge this year would be to tame inflation without stoking a severe recession.

Persons: ” Claus Vistesen, “, ” Organizations: “, Pantheon, European Central Bank, Monetary Fund, ’, Analysts, ING Bank, Bank’s Locations: Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, France, Ukraine, Europe

☆ German exports rise unexpectedly in April on China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, June 5 (Reuters) - German exports rose unexpectedly in April, boosted by deliveries to China following its post-pandemic reopening, but analysts warned that the momentum could be short-lived. German exports increased by 1.2% on the previous month, the federal statistics office said. Exports to China were up 10.1%, while exports to the U.S. were up 4.7% and exports to the European Union rose 4.5%, the office said. The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.4 billion euros ($19.68 billion) in April, up from 14.9 billion euros the previous month. "The temporary push in exports to China will fade with time," ING's global head of macro at ING Carsten Brzeski told Reuters.

Persons: Alexander Krueger, Hauck Aufhaeuser, Claus Vistesen, ING Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, Klaus Wohlrabe, Rachel More, Maria Martinez, Kirsti Knolle, Gareth Jones Organizations: Reuters, European Union, Macroeconomics, ING, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, China, Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe, U.S, Ifo

☆ German economy enters recession as first-quarter GDP data is revised lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The German economy entered a technical recession in the first quarter of this year, as households tightened spending. Data from the German statistics office on Thursday showed a downward revision to GDP (gross domestic product) from zero to -0.3% for the first three months of the year. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates again at its next meeting on June 15. German Central Bank Governor Joachim Nagel said earlier this week that the ECB has "several" more rate increases ahead. He is one of the most hawkish members of the central bank.

"The German economy remained stuck in the mud at the start of 2023, only barely avoiding recession," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief eurozone economist Claus Vistesen said. The German economy shrank by a revised 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, reviving fears of a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. "A gradual recovery is underway, despite a persistently difficult environment," German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in the presentation of the forecasts. "The recent renaissance in industrial production could very well carry the economy through the second quarter," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said. "However, we are afraid that looking into the second half of the year, the German economy will continue its flirtation with recession."

☆ German industrial output falls more than expected in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Industrial production fell 3.1% on month, 0.7% decline expectedProduction in energy-intensive sectors fell 6.1%Economic slowdown in winter expected to be mild - ministryBERLIN, Feb 7 (Reuters) - German industrial production fell more than expected in December, driven by a plunge in output from energy-intensive sectors, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday. The drop was more severe in energy-intensive industrial sectors, where production decreased by 6.1% in December compared with November. "MISERABLE END TO 2022"For 2022 as a whole, German industrial production was 0.6% lower in calendar-adjusted terms than in 2021 and down 5.0% from the pre-pandemic year of 2019. According to Pantheon's estimates, German industrial production fell by 0.7% in the fourth quarter. While industrial production fell in December, German industrial orders rose by 3.2%, beating forecasts and posting the biggest increase in more than a year thanks to strong domestic and eurozone demand, data showed on Monday.

☆ Euro zone inflation rate slides to 9.2% as energy price surge cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation in Europe has been impacted by higher energy prices and supply shortages. Inflation in the euro zone dropped for a second consecutive month in December, but analysts do not expect it to spark a change in tone from the European Central Bank. It follows November's headline inflation rate of 10.1%, which represented the first slight contraction in prices since June 2021. At the time, the central bank forecast an average inflation rate of 8.4% for 2022, 6.3% for 2023 and 3.4% for 2024. Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Germany, said these numbers "are not a relief, yet, only a reminder that euro zone inflation is still mainly an energy price phenomenon."

☆ ECB delivers fourth straight increase but slows pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

COMMENTS:FLORIAN HENSE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, UNION INVESTMENT, FRANKFURT”This is probably the most hawkish 50 basis points they could come up with. Everything I read in the statement press release sounds hawkish and maybe even “very hawkish” to me. However, core inflation momentum remains firm and the labour market tight.”MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:“It (the ECB statement) is very hawkish. “The 50 bps hike was expected and the pace of QT (quantitative tightening) was in the ballpark of what folks were expecting. “Even though the ECB is now going at it a bit slower, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re also going to target a lower terminal rate.

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