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☆ The start of a rate cut cycle is what really matters to market
  + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe start of a rate cut cycle, not how much the Fed cuts this week, is what really mattersChristopher Smart from Arbroath Group says while inflation remains a concern, the market is pricing in multiple interest rate cuts over the next year.
Persons: Christopher Smart Organizations: Arbroath Group
☆ Analysis: Safe-havens and risk assets both rise as banking woes shift Fed expectations
  + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( David Randall Lewis Krauskopf | David Randall | Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - Worries over the banking crisis are boosting disparate assets, with traditional safe-havens such as gold, Treasuries and money markets seeing high demand along with more speculative instruments such as tech stocks and bitcoin. The gains have come alongside big moves in assets traditionally perceived as safe-havens during uncertain times. Yields on shorter-dated Treasuries, which move inversely to prices, saw a historic drop last week, while money market funds notched their biggest inflows since April 2020 in the week to March 15, Refinitiv Lipper data showed. Well, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down about 60 basis points from early March,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, in a Monday report. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street's dirty secret: It's terrible at forecasting stocks
  + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
What’s happening: Last year, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that the S&P 500 would close out 2022 at 5,100 points. With those caveats, let’s get to Wall Street’s predictionsThe numbers: Forecasts for where the S&P 500 will finish 2023 vary greatly. Analysts overestimated the final value (that is, the final value finished below the estimate) in 13 of the 20 years and underestimated the final value (the final value finished above the estimate) in the other 7 years. They’re on track to have overestimated the performance of the S&P 500 in 2022 by nearly 40%. During this period, the S&P 500 has historically gained 1.3% on average, according to data from LPL Financial going back to 1950.
☆ Michael Burry, Elon Musk, and Mark Zuckerberg are raising the alarm on the US economy. Here are 8 recession warnings from top commentators this week.
  + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Michael Burry and Elon Musk this week flagged the risk of a severe US recession. Experts have flagged inflation, rising interest rates, and global growth headwinds as major worries. Several of these experts blame the Federal Reserve, which has rapidly raised interest rates to curb soaring prices this year, leaving consumers facing both higher living expenses and borrowing costs. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, Twitter, and SpaceX"Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta"We thought that the economy and the business were going to go in a certain direction, and obviously it hasn't turned out that way.
☆ The Fed just crushed hopes of rate cuts anytime soon - and the US economy will suffer stagflation next year, a top strategist says
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Fed officials said the inflation fight isn't over and they don't expect to cut interest rates soon. Their words were a "reality check" and "bucket of cold water" for investors, Christopher Smart said. The top strategist expects weak growth, stubborn inflation, and rates to peak around 5% next year. Instead of rebounding, the US economy will shrink and face stubborn price increases next year, Christopher Smart has said. "It is a reality check," Barings' chief global strategist continued, noting investors have repeatedly shrugged off the Fed's hawkish messaging in recent months.
☆ What protests in China may mean for the economy
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN Business —Protests against China’s prolonged and restrictive Covid regulations spread across the country over the weekend. Oil plunged and hit 2022 lows on Monday, while shares of companies that rely on China for production felt the heat. Oil prices dropped sharply, with investors concerned that surging Covid cases and protests in China may sap demand from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. They don’t want to end their covid policy but they also want to ensure that the political unrest doesn’t grow. This week is chock full of important economic data releases, many of which will help guide the Fed’s next interest rate hike decision in December.
☆ Premarket stocks: Markets are in trouble. Election results won't change that
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN Business —The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections will set the agenda for the next Congress. But when it comes to the stock market, this election ranks fairly low on the list of things investors should worry about. But stocks have a bigger problem than who takes the House or Senate: The possibility of a recession ahead. Politics have taken a less central role in recent discussions with investors than they have in past election cycles, they added. The bottom line: When it comes to the next big market catalyst, investors should look to the Fed, not Congress.
☆ What will the Fed do next? Follow the economy, not what Jerome Powell says
  + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell dashed those hopes during his press conference when he talked about how the Fed is still extremely worried about inflation. Here’s the thing, though: Investors are paying way too much attention to what Powell and other Fed members are saying about the economy and not focusing enough on numbers that show how the economy is actually doing. So much can change and there is always a constant flood of new data (and new speeches from Fed policy makers) to digest and parse. Keep an eye on that data more than Fed speeches and volatile interest rates futures. And the fed funds rate futures are going to keep changing based on what the latest economic reports look like.
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