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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTS Lombard: Russian presidential election is a 'plebiscite' on Putin's leadershipChristopher Granville, managing director, global political research, at GlobalData TS Lombard, says "the turnout will be the key test for legitimacy."
Persons: Christopher Granville Organizations: GlobalData
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesEarly on in the war with Russia, Ukraine's successes on the battlefield prompted warnings from defense analysts that Moscow — with its back against the wall militarily — could lash out, using a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil. Defense analysts noted that the more successes Ukraine saw, the more dangerous and unpredictable its opponent Russia could become as it sought to regain the initiative. That, in turn, would make the war much harder and more dangerous for Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual state of the nation address, on February 29, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization.
Persons: Oleksandr Syrskyi, , Ignacio Marin, Christopher Granville, Alexander Ermochenko, Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Brigade, Anadolu, Getty, Moscow, Defense, Analysts, Global Political Research, TS Lombard, Service, Reuters, Ukrainian, NATO, West, Russian Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian, Avdiivka, Donetsk, Moscow, Russian, Volnovakha, U.S, Canada, Paris
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRussia's economy is returning to growth despite severe sanctions, consultancy saysChristopher Granville of TS Lombard says that's also despite the year-on-year fall in oil prices and in oil production in Russia.
Persons: Christopher Granville, TS Lombard, that's Locations: Russia
Members of Wagner group looks from a military vehicle in Rostov-on-Don late on June 24, 2023. It marked what many regard as the greatest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority in his more than two decades in power. Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with servicemen at the Kremlin in Moscow on June 27, 2023. At best, Granville said the Wagner Group was likely to be "a shadow of its former self" in Ukraine following the revolt. Russia's political crisisRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday dismissed questions about a political crisis.
Persons: Wagner, Roman Romokhov, Vladimir Putin's, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Tereshchenko, nationalize Wagner, Putin, Wagner Group's Prigiozhin, Alexander Lukashenko, that's, Pat Ryder, Faustin, BARBARA DEBOUT, Ryder, It's, Christopher Granville, Granville, Sergey Lavrov, Lavrov, Sergei Surovikin, Surovikin Organizations: AFP, Getty, Wagner Group, Kremlin, Russian Ministry of Defense's, Wagner, Russian Armed Forces, Belarusian, Analysts, CNBC, Pentagon, Central African, TS Lombard, Reuters, Associated Press Locations: Rostov, Ukraine, Moscow, Europe, U.S, Russia, Asipovichy, Belarus, Belarusian, Africa, Syria, BANGUI, Central African Republic, Bangui, France, AFP, Russian
Yulia Morozova | ReutersOnce a close ally and caterer to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin now finds himself exiled to Belarus after leading his private mercenary group in an armed mutiny against the Russian military. Despite the apparent amnesty granted in exchange for halting the offensive, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Monday that Prigozhin is a "dead man walking." watch nowIn the absence of further details on the deal struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, analysts are broadly uncertain as to what the future holds for the Wagner Group and its leader. Atlantic Council CEO Fred Kempe told CNBC's "The Exchange" that this would not be a "one-act play" for either the Russian president or his former friend. Kempe mused, adding that the unknowns at this stage are the most important aspect of Prigozhin's banishment.
Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Maxim Fomin, Vladlen Tatarsky, Yulia Morozova, caterer, Vladimir Putin, Prigozhin, Alexander Lukashenko, Ian Bremmer, Putin, Fred Kempe, CNBC's, Will Prigozhin, Kempe, Christopher Granville, Granville, Russia Michael McFaul, I'm, who's Organizations: Reuters, Wagner Group, Eurasia Group, CNBC, Kremlin, Atlantic, EMEA, TS Lombard, Former U.S Locations: St Petersburg, Moscow, Russia, Russian, Belarus, Rostov, Prigozhin, Africa, Syria, Ukraine
However, both the Russian finance ministry and the central bank maintain that all of this is within their models. Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, noted two further factors distorting the most recent deficit figures. watch nowThe actual Urals price dived as a result, averaging just $46.8 per barrel during the period from mid-December to mid-January, according to the Russian finance ministry. The finance ministry also flagged massive advance payments for state procurement in January, which totaled five times those of January 2022. "Also, it has plans to issue debt, but this can only be done domestically so it's like a closed circuit — Russian banks buying debt from the Russian state, etcetera etcetera.
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