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"Further progress is likely to become more difficult as base effects fade, and supply-constraints could drive global energy and food prices higher again." Brent crude prices have risen 27% since mid-year and U.S. crude is up 30%, with U.S. retail pump prices already up almost 10% so far since June. Oil and inflation expectationsReuters GraphicsSLOWING DESCENTAnd alongside creeping worries about rising debt supply, the long end of bond markets has been rattled again by the oil price jump. And this has been a far bigger influence on the inflation trajectory than oil prices per se. Yet, restive crude prices will still cloud a messy and tricky battle with inflation expectations just as policy tightening cycles near an end.

Persons: Brent that's, Christian Keller, Akash Utsav, Andrew Goodwin, there's, George H.W, Jamie Freed Organizations: Brent, UBS, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, Barclays, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, U.S, Treasury, Oxford, Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Russia, tailwind, U.S, Europe, Britain, West, George H.W . Bush

Three of the six central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies that met in July hiked rates, while the other three kept their benchmarks unchanged, Reuters data showed. "Chile announced a larger-than-expected rate cut, and is the first emerging market to jump on the easing bandwagon in the current cycle," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo. Twelve out of 18 central banks in the Reuters sample of developing economies had interest rate setting meetings in July. However, nine central banks opted to keep policy unchanged, with rate hikes coming from Turkey and Russia - two countries whose monetary policy circles are determined by domestic dynamics rather than global trends. On the rate cutting side, emerging market central banks have seen three cuts reducing interest rates by 160 bps in total.

Persons: Christian Keller, Costa, Charu, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, David Evans Organizations: LONDON, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Barclays, Saxo, Thomson Locations: Chile, Turkey, Russia, Latin America, Costa Rica, Uruguay

☆ As China reopens and data surprises, economists are starting to get less gloomy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The European Central Bank is expected to continue raising rates aggressively in the short-term as the euro zone economy proves more resilient than anticipated. Haussmann Visuals | Moment | Getty ImagesAfter China's reopening and a deluge of positive data surprises in recent weeks, economists are upgrading their previously gloomy outlooks for the global economy. Berenberg also upgraded its euro zone forecast in light of recent news flow, particularly falling gas prices, a consumer confidence recovery and a modest improvement in business expectations. watch now"As Germany is more exposed to gas risks than the euro zone as a whole, it suggests that the euro zone likely did not fare (much) worse than Germany late last year and may thus have avoided a significant contraction in Q4 GDP," Schmieding said. Berenberg therefore raised its calls for the annual average change to real GDP in 2023 from a 0.2% shrinkage to 0.3% growth.

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