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☆ The Fed itself is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed

☆ Theory About the Fed, Inflation, and Rates That May Wreck the Economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

After spending the past two years trying to get inflation under control by raising interest rates, the Fed is inching toward cutting rates soon. Setting interest rates should be about weighing costs and benefits for everyone, not engineering outcomes for a favored constituency. When people (usually those with a vested political interest) try to accuse the Fed of being biased, it erodes confidence. The real reason for the accusationsThe entire conspiracy theory about a political Fed is weak on its face and baseless on its merits. What makes anyone so sure they'll fare better in 2024 with the rate of inflation slowing, interest rates falling, and stocks rising?

Persons: there's, it's, Joe Biden's, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Biden, It's, Trump, Ro Khanna, Powell, Taylor, Bill Dudley, Dudley, Dudley's, Chris Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Democratic, Trump, Biden, New York Fed Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan

☆ Without A Fight wins Melbourne Cup as jockey Zahra triumphs again
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Ian Ransom | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Horse Racing - Melbourne Cup - Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne, Australia - November 7, 2023 Jockey Mark Zahra reacts after riding Without A Fight to victory in race 7, the 2023 Melbourne Cup, during Melbourne Cup Day Joel Carrett/AAP Image via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsMELBOURNE, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Without A Fight won the 163rd running of the Melbourne Cup at Flemington Racecourse on Tuesday, with jockey Mark Zahra celebrating back-to-back triumphs in Australia's most prestigious race. Zahra became the first jockey to win back-to-back Melbourne Cups since Glen Boss rode Makybe Diva to a hat-trick of wins from 2003-05. Gold Trip, carrying the top weight of 58.5kg on a firm track, slumped to 17th under replacement jockey James McDonald. 'EXTRAORDINARY RIDE'Prepared by British duo Simon and Ed Crisford, Without A Fight ran 13th in last year's Melbourne Cup. Three-times Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Damien Oliver rode Alenquer to 21st in his final Melbourne Cup, the gelding cleared by stewards in the morning after reported for foot bruising.

Persons: Mark Zahra, Joel Carrett, Zahra, Anthony, Sam Freedman, I'm, He's, Glen Boss, Maher, David Eustace, James McDonald, Simon, Ed Crisford, hinds, Anthony's, Lee Freedman, It's, it's, Chris Waller, Vauban, Ireland's Willie Mullins, Damien Oliver, Alenquer, Eustace, Kris Lees, Cleveland, Ian Ransom, Peter Rutherford Organizations: Melbourne, Flemington, REUTERS Acquire, Rights MELBOURNE, Caulfield, Stewards, Thomson Locations: Melbourne, Australia, Australia's

☆ Why Fed officials aren’t addressing the Israel-Hamas war the way they did with Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Emma Jones, a spokesperson for the Fed, declined to comment on why many Fed officials, who in the past moved swiftly to acknowledge the war in Ukraine, weren’t addressing the war in Israel. There are some Fed officials who are starting to talk about it, though — albeit only when asked questions. Fed officials see little immediate threat to the US economyAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was the first to speak about the war, at the American Bankers Association’s annual conference last Tuesday. That’s probably why more Fed officials were quicker to acknowledge the war in Ukraine, Dorn said. “I don’t think the Fed wants to look like they’re taking sides,” Dorn added — but said Fed officials could easily talk about it without looking partial.

Persons: Chris Waller, ” Waller, Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Emma Jones, James Dorn, “, ”, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Neel Kashkari didn’t, aren't, they're, Al Drago, Susan Collins, ” Collins, Patrick Harker, we’ve, Harker, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dorn, Dorn, There’s, Gregory Daco, Daco Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, ”, Dallas Fed, Fed, Cato Institute, CNN, Atlanta Fed, American Bankers, Minot State University, Minneapolis, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, ” Boston, Wellesley College, Philadelphia Fed, Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, JPMorgan, Rystad Energy Locations: New York, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Waller’s, North Dakota, Delaware, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, United States, That’s, Gaza, Hormuz, EY

☆ US stocks trade mostly lower as jump in oil prices reignites inflation fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday as a spike in oil prices reignited inflation fears. If inflation reaccelerates, it could force the Federal Reserve to continue with its interest rate hikes. Fed Governor Chris Waller said recent economic data suggests the Fed can "proceed carefully" with further rate hikes. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures are currently pricing in no more interest rate hikes for this cycle and a potential interest rate cut by May 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are awaiting more Fedspeak later this week to ascertain whether more interest rate hikes in store.

Persons: Chris Waller, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, CNBC, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Morning Bid: Oil price relapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although oil prices have not yet reversed all their gains from OPEC move, Brent is down more than 5% over the past week and the year-on-year deflation in oil prices is running at 24%. And there's also signs oil loading from Russia's western ports this month is rising to the highest since 2019 -= despite Moscow's pledge to cut output. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares dropped 2% after the electric-vehicle maker's sixth U.S. price cut this year. Helped by the oil price retreat, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields fell back almost 10 basis points to 4.19%. VIX and bear marketsShare price performance, earnings and sales for TeslaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Morning Bid: Dogged inflation shades rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But for most major stock and bond investments beyond the banking sector itself, the quarter remained a pretty upbeat one overall. "Inflation remains too high and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do," said Boston Fed chief Susan Collins. Futures markets are still broadly split on the chances of another Fed hike in May, but leaned a bit more on Friday to one more quarter point move. But core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, ticked up as forecast to a new record high for the bloc at 7.5%. Germany said import price inflation fell to its lowest in two years at 2.8% in February.

At its latest meeting, the Fed laced its statement and minutes with a rider about cumulative tightening and uncertain lags. The gist of the argument is that the Fed doesn't deliver credit directly to the wider economy - banks and financial markets do. But few seem to doubt that these policy lags have shortened considerably over the decades. Showcasing the study in December, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly adopted a more dovish slant on the gap between the funds rate and tightening financial markets. "But investors should remain attentive to the occasional episodic disconnects observed between Fed guidance and some prominent indices of financial conditions," Clarida told clients.

☆ Fed Gov. Chris Waller say he favors 25 basis point interest rate hike at next FOMC meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Gov. Chris Waller say he favors 25 basis point interest rate hike at next FOMC meetingCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to discuss comments made by Fed Governor Chris Waller about declines in inflation in certain areas, and the need for continued rate increases.

☆ European markets head for mixed open as investors guage economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a mixed open on Tuesday as investors guage the economic outlook in the region and wider global economy. The mixed sentiment comes after a choppy session in the United States on Monday, after comments from Federal Reserve leaders Lael Brainard and Chris Waller about interest rate hikes. While Brainard said the central bank could ease rate increases, Waller said the market was overly optimistic and should brace itself for higher rates. Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mostly higher on Tuesday following the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Global markets will be watching events at the Group of Twenty summit in Bali, Indonesia, that kicks off on Tuesday.

☆ Stock futures rise after Wall Street suffers first decline in three sessions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were higher Monday evening after ending the day lower, snapping a two-day advance that started when a better-than-expected inflation report stoked hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon ease up on raising interest rates. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.23% and 0.31%, respectively. Stocks whiplashed during the day Monday on comments from Federal Reserve leaders Lael Brainard and Chris Waller about rate hikes going forward. Markets will get more inflation information on Tuesday when the producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, is released. Investors will also study comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.

☆ Jim Cramer: Why the two-day rally to end last week is significant — and what to expect next
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

You would just stay mum, enabling investors to expect another raise of 75 basis points, especially if retail sales this week come in above expectations. The best that can be said, though, is that the two days up to end last week seem significant — especially in light of the collapse of FTX. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

Fed policymakers expect it to rise to 4.4% by the end of next year, projections released Wednesday show. The availability of nearly two job openings for every job seeker reflects that, and Fed policymakers hope businesses will respond to interest rate hikes mostly by trimming hiring rather than with outright layoffs. Fed policymakers see inflation, now at 6.3% by their preferred measure, falling to 2.8% by the end of next year, projections released on Wednesday show. But in general, banks are slow to pass on the Fed's rate increases to savers and do so at levels typically far below the central bank's policy rate and, currently, inflation. With the rise in rates, monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced existing home have jumped nearly 60% to $1,940 this year.

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