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☆ China keeps lending benchmark rates unchanged, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.45% and the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.20%. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. The steady fixings came after the central bank kept its medium-term interbank liquidity rate unchanged last week. The LPR, which banks normally charge their best clients, is set by 18 designated commercial banks who submit proposed rates to the central bank every month.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States, outflows

"There's increasing evidence that the cyclical upturn in the global electronics sector is driving a bottoming-out of global trade and China's trade data is the latest sign," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Reuters GraphicsSouth Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, fell at their slowest pace in 11 months in September. Semiconductors make up the bulk of their trade, signalling improving appetite among Chinese manufacturers for components to re-export in finished goods. However, Lv Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference on Friday that China's trade still faces a complex and severe external environment. Overall, though, total merchandise imports fell at a slower pace, down 6.3%, reflecting a gradual recovery in domestic demand.

Persons: Smart, David Kirton, Xu Tianchen, it's, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Zou Lan, Premier Li Qiang, Li, Robert Carnell, Kevin Yao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill Organizations: Trade, REUTERS, Economist Intelligence Unit, Reuters Graphics South, Semiconductors, Administration of Customs, ASEAN, Federal Reserve, China Economics, Capital Economics, People's Bank of, Premier, Bloomberg, ING, Thomson Locations: Qianhai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, BEIJING, United States, Europe, Stocks, People's Bank of China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific

☆ China's central bank set to boost liquidity but keep policy rate steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is expected to boost liquidity while keeping the borrowing cost steady when rolling over its medium-term policy loans on Friday, a Reuters survey showed, after a string of data showed some signs of economic stabilisation. China has already lowered the medium-term policy rate twice since June to stimulate credit demand and support a faltering economic recovery. New bank lending in China beat expectations by nearly quadrupling in August from July's level, as the central bank sought to shore up economic growth amid soft demand at home and abroad. To revive broad credit demand and rescue the troubled property sector, China unexpectedly cut the MLF rate last month. For this reason alone, it seems unlikely that the PBOC will embrace large-scale rate cuts."

Persons: Frances Cheung, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: People's Bank of China, OCBC Bank, U.S, Capital Economics, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, China, United States, OCBC Bank .

☆ China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. While recent data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. A strong majority of economists who answered an additional question said the risks to their 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bingnan Ye, Teeuwe Mevissen, Vivek Mishra, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Ross Finley, Sam Holmes Organizations: Capital Economics, China Merchants Bank, People's Bank of, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, Netherlands, Bengaluru, Shanghai

☆ What's gone wrong with China's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

It’s a far cry from global financial meltdown of 2008, when China launched the largest stimulus package in the world and was the first major economy to emerge from the crisis. It’s also a reversal from the early days of the pandemic, when China was the only major developed economy to dodge a recession. Property woesChina’s economy has been in doldrums since April, when momentum from a strong start to the year faded. While Evergrade is still undergoing a debt restructuring, troubles at Country Garden raised fresh concerns about the Chinese economy. Beijing has so far unveiled a steady incremental drip of measures to boost the economy, including interest rate cuts and other moves to help the property market and consumer businesses.

Persons: rekindling, Ying Tang, Morgan Stanley, Xi Jinping, It’s, what’s, Evergrande, Evergrade, ”, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Evans Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, UBS, Nomura, Barclays, Garden, Zhongrong Trust, CNN, Capital Economics, “, People’s Bank of China, National Health Commission, Moody’s Investors Service Locations: Hong Kong, China, Shanghai, It’s, doldrums, Beijing, United States, Europe

☆ Data points to a Chinese economy 'struggling for momentum,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailData points to a Chinese economy 'struggling for momentum,' economist saysJulian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, says there needs to be "a lot more stimulus if they really want to put a floor under growth and get the economy going again."

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Capital Economics Locations: China

BEIJING, July 31 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity fell for a fourth straight month in July while the services and construction sectors teetered on the brink of contraction, official surveys showed on Monday, threatening growth prospects for the third quarter. Construction sector activity for July was its weakest since COVID-19-related workplace disruptions dissipated around February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, dropped to 51.5 from June's 53.2. "Meanwhile, we're seeing improvements in inventory levels, suggesting that with destocking nearing its end, China's manufacturing sector bottomed out in the second quarter," he added. "Unless concrete support is rolled out soon, the recent downturn in demand risks becoming self-reinforcing."

Persons: Xu Tianchen, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes, Edmund Klamann Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Communist Party, PMI, Economist Intelligence Unit, destocking, China, State, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

☆ What new norm of slower Chinese growth could mean for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Ying Tang | NurPhoto | Getty ImagesThe Chinese economy could be facing a prolonged period of lower growth, a prospect which may have global ramifications after 45 years of rapid expansion and globalization. The ruling Chinese Communist Party has set a growth target of 5% for 2023, lower than usual and notably modest for a country that has averaged 9% annual GDP growth since opening up its economy in 1978. For the global economy, however, the most immediate spillover of a Chinese slowdown will likely come in commodities and the industrial cycle, as China reconfigures its economy to reduce its reliance on a property sector that has been "absorbing and driving commodity prices." "This shift from a complementary economy, where Beijing and Berlin kind of benefit from each other, to now being competitors is another big consequence of the structural slowdown," Green said. He noted that beyond the immediate loss of demand for commodities, China's reaction to its shifting economic sands will also have "second order impacts" for the global economy.

Persons: Ying Tang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Evans, it's, Xi Jinping's, Rory Green, Green Organizations: Beijing, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Triple, TS Lombard, CNBC Locations: Suzhou, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Germany, Berlin

☆ China vows to 'adjust and optimize' property policy in 'tortuous' economic recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The post-pandemic economic recovery will proceed in a "wave-like" fashion in a "tortuous" process, it added. On Tuesday, Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets cheered the Politburo's policy pledges, outperforming broader Asia-Pacific benchmarks. The Chinese property sector saw some of the strongest percentage gains in Hong Kong, with developer Country Garden rebounding more than 14% from a nine-month low. By some calculations, the country's property sector still accounts for up to a quarter of China's annual economic activity. Expanding domestic demandLate Monday, China's top leaders pledged to "actively expand domestic demand" and to "expand consumption by raising income levels."

Persons: Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, China Vanke, Goldman Sachs, China's, Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Getty, Communist, Xinhua, Barclays, Index, CSI, Longfor, China Overseas, Observers, Citi, People's Bank, China's, National, Capital Economics Locations: China, Hong Kong, outperforming, Asia

☆ China has announced a slew of measures to bolster its economy. Here's what we know so far
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Here are some of the key measures released by the Chinese government in recent weeks. Private businessesOn Monday, China's economic planning agency announced a series of measures to promote private investment. Julian Evans-Pritchard Capital EconomicsThe NDRC said it will support private investment in sectors — such as transportation, water conservancy, clean energy, new infrastructure, advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture facilities. The agency is also encouraging private investment projects to issue real estate investment trusts (REITS) in the infrastructure sector to promote asset diversification and further broaden investment and financing channels for private investment. Business sentiment has generally soured amid lackluster economic growth after China's initial recovery following its exit from "zero Covid" faltered.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Afp, Getty, China, Private, Communist Party, National Development, Reform, Pritchard Capital, People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China Economics, Capital Economics, Household, Commerce Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai

☆ Yellen's China trip yields long meetings, 'cordial' tone, but no consensus
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The accomplishment of the meeting was the meeting itself, not specific issues," said Scott Kennedy, a China economics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. A senior U.S. Treasury official accompanying Yellen on her first trip to China as secretary described it as "respectful, frank and constructive," adding: "She was warmly received." Her meeting on Saturday with He, China's new economic czar, was scheduled for two hours but lasted five, followed by a "cordial" dinner, the official said. In the meantime, Yellen said the talks set the stage for more frequent U.S.-China communications at the staff level about economic issues, including areas of disagreement. A possible venue for this would be the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Lifeng, Scott Kennedy, Premier Li Qiang, Pan Gongsheng, Joe Biden's, Jake Colvin, Hong Hao, Hong, Colvin, Biden, John Kerry, Gina Raimondo, Xi Jinping, Wang Yiwei, David Lawder, Andrea Shalal, Ryan Woo, Ellen Zhang, Qiaoyi Li, Stephen Coates Organizations: . Treasury, U.S, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Global Times, Treasury, Premier, People's Bank of China, National Foreign Trade Council, Grow Investment, . Commerce, Renmin University, Economic Cooperation, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Washington, China's, U.S, United States, Hong Kong, Asia, San Francisco, Anchorage , Alaska

The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. Nomura has been the most bearish, cutting its forecast for growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5.1% from 5.5%. "This indicates the urgent need for a more powerful package of policy measures... to ensure the annual growth targets," he added. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. China's cabinet this month pledged to promote a sustained economic recovery "in a timely manner".

Persons: Rob Carnell, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Li Qiang, ING's Carnell, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, ING, Capital Economics, PMI, Jones, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Pacific, Tianjin, Beijing

☆ China cuts lending benchmarks to revive slowing demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Thomas Peter/FILE PHOTOSHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 20 (Reuters) - China cut its key lending benchmarks on Tuesday, the first such reductions in 10 months as authorities seek to shore up a slowing economic recovery, although concerns about the property market meant the easing was not as large as expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.55%, while the five-year LPR was cut by the same margin to 4.20%. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered short- and medium-term policy rates last week. "There is no need to roll out all policy measures all at once." Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Xing Zhaopeng, Xing, China's, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Kripa Jayaram, Sam Holmes Organizations: Central Business, REUTERS, Capital Economics, Reuters, Mainland Properties, People's Bank of China, ANZ, Jones, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, outpacing

☆ China cuts short-term borrowing costs as economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies PBOC lowers 7-day reverse repo to 1.9% vs. 2.0% prev. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.90% from 2.00% on Tuesday, when it injected 2 billion yuan ($279.97 million) through the short-term bond instrument. "The central bank's rate cut decision was not a complete surprise to the market," said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. Tuesday's rate cut suggests policymakers are increasingly worried about the health of China's recovery, traders and analysts said. "However, the market is expecting the PBOC to cut the policy rate further.

Persons: 10bp, Ken Cheung, Yi Gang, Cheung, Marco Sun, Frances Cheung, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, MUFG Bank, OCBC Bank, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, United States, outflows

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar fell slightly on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data, while China’s yuan slipped to a six-month low after the central bank lowered a short-term lending rate to boost the economy. That helped push the dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, down 0.26% to 103.32. The onshore yuan bottomed at 7.168 per dollar, its lowest since last November, and last traded at 7.152. Its offshore counterpart weakened to a new six-month low of 7.178, before paring its losses slightly. The Aussie dollar rose more than 0.4% to its highest since May 11 at $0.679, and was last at $0.678.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jane Foley, “ What’s, ” Foley, Julian Evans, Pritchard, ” Sterling Organizations: LONDON, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Rabobank, Fed, Capital Economics, of England, Bank of Japan Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, China

BEIJING, June 9 (Reuters) - China's factory gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven years in May and quicker than forecasts, as faltering demand weighed on a slowing manufacturing sector and cast a cloud over the fragile economic recovery. "The risk of deflation is still weighing on the economy," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but recent indicators show demand is rapidly weakening with exports, imports and factory activity falling in May. Food price inflation, a key driver of CPI, slowed to 1.0% year-on-year from 2.4% in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 0.7%.

Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Dan Wang, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Australia, Reuters, Capital Economics, Hang Seng Bank China, Bank of China, China's, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, United States, Europe, China

☆ China's disappointing rebound could bring in more stimulus, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesChina's much-vaunted economic rebound after its emergence from strict zero-Covid lockdown measures has yet to fully materialize, prompting some economists to speculate that further fiscal stimulus or monetary policy easing could be coming down the pipeline. Data from China's Bureau of Statistics shows that 6 million of the 96 million 16 to 24-year-olds in the urban labor force are currently unemployed. watch nowIn a research note Monday, Capital Economics assessed that, despite losing some momentum, China's economic recovery was still progressing at the start of the second quarter, with scope for further service sector-led improvement. But we do not expect policy rate cut or major fiscal stimulus, barring a precipitous fall in exports in the coming months." Any consensus among economists as to the trajectory of fiscal and monetary policy seems to be unraveling in light of the tenuous recovery.

☆ China's skidding factory sector taps brakes on economic recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Ryan Woo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector, a private survey showed on Thursday, imperilling the broader economic outlook for the second quarter. China Daily via REUTERSThe Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in April from 50.0 in March. The latest PMIs may lower expectations for the economy in the second quarter, said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. “But to what extent the economic recovery momentum will weaken, the market is not sure,” Zhou said. “The manufacturing sector will be under pressure in the second quarter, and won’t get any relief at least until June.”

"I was previously considered wealthy in the area," said Liu, who also owns some commercial property in the northeastern city of Liaoyuan. In play now in China, where around 70% of household wealth is in property, this phenomenon is weighing on the post-pandemic recovery of household consumption, which Chinese policymakers have vowed to make a more prominent driver of economic growth. Capital Economics estimates net household wealth declined 4.3% overall last year, due to falling house and stock prices, the first decline since at least 2001. Indeed, deposits rose a further 9.9 trillion yuan in the first quarter of this year. ($1 = 6.8376 Chinese yuan renminbi)Additional reporting by Shuyan Wang; Editing by Marius Zaharia and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ China March services activity accelerates on new orders - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, April 6 (Reuters) - China's services activity in March revved up at the quickest pace in 2-1/2 years on robust new orders and job creation and a consumption-led post-COVID recovery, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday. The upbeat figure echoed an official PMI released last week, which shot to the highest level in more than a decade. Thanks to improvements in customer demand, the rate of new orders was the sharpest since November 2020, the Caixin survey showed. Notably, new export orders in the services sector grew at the fastest pace on record. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, rose to 54.5 in March from 54.2 a month prior, marking the quickest expansion since June.

☆ China's factories just had their best month in 11 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s factory activity has expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade, as the world’s second largest economy staged what economists are calling a “very rapid” rebound after reopening from zero-Covid. In January, the reading was 50.1, a sharp increase from the month before, as disruptions caused by the abrupt end of pandemic restrictions was starting to fade. The official non-manufacturing PMI for February, which includes the construction and services industries, recorded its best level in two years, figures from the NBS showed. Also Wednesday, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI, a private gauge of the country’s factory activity, jumped to 51.6 in February from 49.2 in January. The latest data is “exceptionally strong,” confirming a “very rapid rebound” in China’s economic activity, Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.

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