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He said a boost from the weak yen to exports has faded as the Japanese currency rebounded sharply in August. Total exports rose 5.6% year-on-year in August, up for a ninth straight month, data showed on Wednesday, well below a median market forecast for a 10% increase and following a 10.3% rise in July. Exports to the United States dipped 0.7%, the first monthly decline in nearly three years, as auto sales slumped 14.2%. Those to China, Japan's biggest trading partner, rose 5.2% in August from a year earlier. The value of imports grew 2.3% in August from a year earlier, versus a 13.4% increase expected by economists.
Persons: Takeshi Minami Organizations: Asahi, Co, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S, Norinchukin Research Locations: Hekinan, Aichi Prefecture, Japan, U.S, China, United States
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina economy: Many warning signs are 'flashing red,' professor saysEswar Prasad, professor of international trade and economics at Cornell University, discusses China's economic outlook for the second half of the year. He says "there hasn't been much good news in this latest round of data, and this has been the pattern for the last few months."
Persons: Eswar Prasad Organizations: China, Cornell University
Asian markets were set to open mixed Monday as investors digested the downbeat economic data from China released over the weekend, while several key markets were closed for holidays. Investors also await the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday where the central bankers are expected to make their first interest rate cut since 2020. China released a slew of worrying economic data, with August factory output, retail sales and investment numbers missing expectations. Urban jobless rate rose to a six-month high while year-on-year home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years. Reaction to China's disappointing economic data will be likely seen in the Hong Kong market.
Locations: China, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong
A banner plays up China's trade-in policy at a home goods expo in Qingdao, Shandong province, China, on June 1, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's plan to boost consumption by encouraging trade-ins has yet to show significant results, several businesses told CNBC. Analysts are not overly optimistic about the extent to which the trade-in program could support retail sales. China's retail sales for August are due Saturday morning. Retail sales in June rose by 2%, the slowest since the Covid-19 pandemic, while July sales growth saw a modest improvement at 2.7%.
Persons: Jens Eskelund, Tao Wang, Sally Loh, Otis, Kone, We've, Ilkka Hara, Hara Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, BEIJING, CNBC, EU Chamber of Commerce, UBS Investment Bank, China, U.S, Otis Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China, Greater China
China may be delaying economic stimulus ahead of the US election, economist Rory Green says. Beijing is cautious due to potential Trump tariffs, which could impact growth in 2025. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementChina may be holding back on economic stimulus ahead of the US presidential election, an economist wrote on Thursday. This is because Beijing is keeping its powder dry in case Republican candidate Donald Trump wins in the November polls, wrote Rory Green, the chief China economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard.
Persons: Rory Green, , Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Service, GlobalData.TS Lombard, Business Locations: China, Beijing, GlobalData.TS
China's foreign trade still very resilient: DBS Bank
  + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's foreign trade still very resilient: DBS BankMo Ji, chief China economist at DBS Bank, expects August China trade data to moderate alongside the weakening of the country's economy.
Persons: Ji Organizations: DBS, DBS Bank Locations: China
Business Insider's Brent D. Griffiths has a rundown on everything you need to know heading into tonight . A newly released Times/Siena poll shows Trump holding just a one-point advantage over Harris among likely voters. For Trump, the focus will likely be the economy, which is a high priority for voters and also a sore spot for Harris. The latest Times poll showed Trump (55%) held a big advantage over Harris (42%) regarding who would be better equipped to handle the economy. Trump will also likely target Harris' biggest vulnerabilities , which may include trying to define her shifting views as disingenuous flip-flops, Brent writes.
Persons: , he'll, it's, Jose Luis Pelaez, Michael Ciaglo, Getty, Tom Williams, Tyler Le, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Insider's Brent D, Griffiths, Harris, BI's John L Dorman, Trump, Brent, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, BI's Bradley Saacks, It's, BI's Alice Tecotzky, Sébastien Thibault, Goldman Sachs, Torsten Sløk, Anson Chan, Brian Niccol, hasn't, Putin, Andrew Cuomo, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Elon, Business, Jose Luis Pelaez Inc, Trump, BI Bitcoin, Arab League Locations: Philadelphia, Siena, Silicon Valley, China, America, Russia, Ukraine, Cairo, Israel, Gaza, New York, London
But the country could see growth pick up this fall, Goldman Sachs' chief China economist says. Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementAfter a long downturn, China's economy may be poised for a turnaround, Goldman Sachs says. Goldman's chief China economist Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks as reasons to believe the country's fortunes could soon change.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, , Shan Organizations: Service, Business Locations: China
Instead, JPMorgan increased its overweight recommendations on other emerging markets. Even after the change, JPMorgan still holds 18 China stocks in its global emerging markets model portfolio. The JPMorgan analysts said uncertainties about the China economic outlook range from tensions with the U.S. to "lingering deflation pressure." During three periods of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions in 2018 and 2019, the MSCI China index fell each time, according to JPMorgan China Equity Strategist Wendy Liu. As part of its China stock downgrade, JPMorgan added shares of state-owned utility operator CR Gas , while removing shares of PDD, China Construction Bank and Kingdee International.
Persons: Pedro Martins, Chetan Seth, Jake Sullivan, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Harris, Donald Trump, Wendy Liu, ByteDance, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Wednesday, Sunday, Reuters, Nomura's, Nomura, JPMorgan China Equity, CR Gas, China Construction Bank, Kingdee International, Kuaishou Technology, Meituan, Hong Locations: China, U.S, Nomura's Asia, Japan, Beijing, PDD, Hong Kong, Thursday's
“The Qixi Festival is not as robust as previous years. Couples attend a kissing contest during the traditional Qixi festival in Shenyang, northeast China's Liaoning province, on August 13, 2013. “The only part of the world where consumer confidence remains very low is China,” L’Oreal CEO Nicolas Hieronimus told analysts on an earnings call late last month. Lower-than-expected growth in the global beauty sector this year is largely a consequence of low consumer confidence in China, he added. People take photos at a bus stop decorated with flowers during Qixi Festival, or Chinese Valentine's Day, on August 22, 2023 in Chongqing, China.
Persons: China’s, Louis Vuitton, , forlornly, Huang Jinkun, Alfred Wu, Lee, , Yeap Jun Rong, Xi Jinping, Peng Liyuan, Stringer, De Beers, That’s, Niulang, Nicolas Hieronimus, Joanne Wilson, didn’t, ” Mercedes, Ola Kaellenius Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Weibo, CNN, Qixi, Lee Kuan Yew, of Public, National University of Singapore, Volkswagen, Ministry of Civil Affairs, Getty, Diamond, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Global, WPP, China News Service, Mercedes, ” Mercedes Benz Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shenyang, Liaoning province, Beijing, China's Liaoning province, AFP, Chongqing
With nearly three-fourths of the S & P 500 reporting second-quarter results, the earnings picture for the back half of the year is looking unusually complicated. It's been a 'meh' quarter so far We have the usual beat on bottom-line earnings, but revenue beats are below expectations. Most companies are beating on earnings estimates but are declining to hike full-year guidance beyond the beat. Plenty of complaints about a slowing China consumer A weak China economy has been a significant headwind for a number of global companies this season. Procter & Gamble's China sales tumbled 8% from a year ago as consumer spending slowed.
Persons: It's, Sherwin, Williams, Lockheed Martin, Chipotle, Isaac, CDW, Clorox, – Hershey, Kraft Heinz, Mondelez, General Mills, Smucker, McDonald's, Wendy's, Bob, Wyndham, Mills, Marriott, LVMH, haven't Organizations: GE Aerospace, Hasbro, Lockheed, Verizon, Mattel, IBM, Juniper Networks, Enphase Energy, NXP Semiconductors, Accenture, Oracle, Procter, Gamble, PepsiCo, ConAgra Brands, Bank of America, MGM Resorts, Comcast, Marriott, Airlines, Allegiant, Ryanair, Gamble's, Starbucks, Visa, Nike, Vegas Sands Locations: J.M, Atlantic City, China, Gamble's China, Greater China, Japan, Macao, Marina, Sands, Singapore
China has, in its own way, signaled it wants to support specific kinds of consumer purchases. Authorities on Thursday announced the equivalent of 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in special bonds would go towards trade-ins and equipment upgrades — a significant expansion of an existing program. The 300 billion yuan ultra-long bond issuance is not a new government allocation, but rather a more detailed designation of a 1 trillion yuan ultra-long bond program announced earlier this year. "300 billion yuan is the largest equipment upgrade subsidy from the central government historically," the analysts said. Even the 300 billion yuan figure is split roughly between consumer-related trade-ins with business-side equipment upgrades.
Persons: Ding, Morgan Stanley, Tao Wang, Darius Tang, Corporates, Fitch Bohua, Michael Bloom Organizations: China Asset Management Co, UBS Investment Bank Locations: China, Beijing, Asia
China surprises with cuts to key rates to support weak economy
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
China surprised markets by lowering a key short-term policy rate and its benchmark lending rates on Monday, in efforts to boost growth in the world's second-largest economy. Minutes later, China cut benchmark lending rates by the same margin at the monthly fixing. Following the rate cuts, China's yuan dropped to a near two-week low of 7.2750 per dollar before paring some losses. He expects more rate reductions in China after the Fed enters its rate cut cycle. China's rate cuts are aimed at "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments to better support the real economy," the PBOC said in a statement.
Persons: Larry Hu, Ju Wang, Zhang Zhiwei, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: People's Bank of, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, Greater China FX, BNP, Federal Reserve, Xinhua, Fed Locations: People's Bank of China, Beijing, China
Li, 27, is part of a growing base of Chinese workers swapping high-pressure office jobs for flexible blue-collar work. But these firms are slowly losing their appeal as China’s economy faces headwinds including a property crisis, declining foreign investment and slumping consumption. The trend to move from professional to manual jobs comes amid surging demand for blue-collar workers, according to Chinese recruitment platform Zhaopin. And blue-collar workers’ pay has also gone up, attracting more people to jobs they might have previously avoided. Pressure of another kindBut some wonder if blue-collar work is truly the stress-free refuge people like Li and Wang imagine it to be.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — Leon Li, , Li, , Alice Wang, Wang, , Larry Hu, Zhang Yuxiao, David Goodman, commenter Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Workers, NBS, University of Sydney’s China Studies Centre Locations: China, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Chengdu, , Macquarie, Shanghai
While it offered few clues on how to tackle economic difficulties, the meeting did provide further insight into a shake-up of high-level personnel over the past year. If past sessions are a guide, a more detailed report may be released in the following days, but for now, “the plenum communique is light on specifics,” Evans-Pritchard added. That came days after China released disappointing economic data for the second quarter of this year. Analysts say that the coming months could offer more details on how Xi plans to revive the economy. Emphasizing short-term economic policies is rare in the history of the third plenums, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — China’s, Xi Jinping, Xi, , Julian Evans, Pritchard, Qin, Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, Jinming, Evans, , ” Evans, Mao, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Central, Defense, Liberation Army Rocket Force, of America, National Bureau, Statistics, Analysts, Macquarie Group Locations: Hong Kong, party’s, Beijing, China, policymaking, outflows, United States, Mao China
Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, China, in 2017. "So this is not going to be a sustainable driver of growth for China." China's exports to the U.S. rose by a modest 1.5% in the first half of the year. Citi forecasts 5.0% growth in real GDP growth for China this year. UBS forecasts 4.9% growth for China's economy this year.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Artyom Ivanov, Goldman Sachs, Trump, JD Vance, Hui Shan, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Vance, Biden, Mike Pence wouldn't, MAGA, Lin Jian, Goldman's Shan, Shan, Tao Wang Organizations: TASS, Getty, BEIJING, U.S, European, Citi, Fox News, Trump, Capitol, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CNBC, UBS Investment Bank, UBS Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, European Union, Asia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrump presidency tariffs could be a 'major downside growth risk' for China, says Goldman SachsHui Shan, chief China economist of Goldman Sachs, says the implications for the macroeconomy are significant if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election and imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.
Persons: Goldman Sachs Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump Organizations: Email, U.S Locations: China
Asia-Pacific markets climbed on Monday as investors awaited China's Third Plenum and also assessed an assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump at a rally over the weekend. David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, said in a note on Sunday that Trump would win the presidency, with an increased probability of a Republican clean sweep of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Key China economic data will be released on Monday, including the country's second quarter GDP numbers. China's economy is expected to expand 5.1% year on year, according to a Reuters poll of economists, compared to 5.3% in the first quarter. Japan's markets are closed for a public holiday.
Persons: Donald Trump, David Roche Organizations: Quantum, Trump, Republican Locations: Asia, Pacific, China
CNBC Daily Open: Trump assassination attempt
  + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Trump assassination attemptThe attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday left one attendee and the gunman dead, and two more attendees in critical condition. Trump was grazed by a bullet and treated at a local hospital, but released late Saturday night. Dimon inflation warningJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that inflation and interest rates may remain high despite recent easing in price pressures.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Thomas Matthew Crooks, Larry Hu, CNBC's Evelyn Cheng, Russell, CNBC's Michael Santoli, Wiz, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: CNBC, FBI, NBC, Macquarie, Communist Party of, Dow, Dow Jones, Depot, Caterpillar, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Wiz, Wall Street Journal, Sequoia Capital, Insight Partners, U.S Locations: Pennsylvania, Bethel Park, Pa, China's, Beijing, China, Communist Party of China, Israeli
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's real estate problems may be massive, but analysts expect the upcoming Third Plenum to focus on other areas — such as high local government debt levels and a push for advanced manufacturing. "For real estate markets, I don't think it should be a focus of the plenum, because it's already [in a] state that everyone has a consensus [on]," Wang said. watch nowIn his view, excessive growth of the financial sector was behind the hollowing out of the U.S. industrial sector. "Consequently we must constrain the financial industry, including real estate. That's the underlying reason for tightened regulations on both real estate and finance."
Persons: Larry Hu, Hu, Xi Jinping, Deng Xiaoping's, Dan Wang, She'll, it's, Wang, hasn't, Yao Yang, Yao, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Chinese Communist Party, Bloomberg, Getty, BEIJING, Communist Party of, Macquarie, CNBC, Central Committee, Communist Party, Party, President, Hang Seng Bank, HSBC, HSBC It's, Committee, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, U.S, China Morning Post, Financial Regulatory Administration, World Bank, Big Data Locations: Communist Party of China, Beijing, China, United States, Big Data China
“What worries policymakers is the interest rate risk, which will rise once the dominant narrative shifts from deflation to reflation,” Hu from Macquarie said. If that happens, bond yields will rise as investors switch back into riskier stocks. The country’s “4,000 or so small and medium-sized banks” will be particularly vulnerable to the interest rate risk, he added. “The bubble formed by the rush of funds into the bond market is accumulating interest rate risks,” the Securities Times said in an editorial. Economic risksThe rapid decline in Chinese bond yields also poses significant risks to the economy.
Persons: , , Pan Gongsheng, SVB, Larry Hu, ” Hu, Macquarie, Hu, Zhang Jiqiang, Ken Cheung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, People’s Bank of China, prudential, , Federal Reserve, Macquarie Group, Zheshang Securities, Securities Times, Japan’s Norinchukin Bank, Huatai Securities, Mizuho Securities Locations: Hong Kong, Silicon, United States, Shanghai, China, Beijing, SVB, outflows
Skyline, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam John Harper | Photodisc | Getty ImagesSoutheast Asia has emerged as a top choice for firms looking to diversify production away from China, including Chinese companies, amid escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. "Southeast Asia is well-placed to benefit significantly from the China+1 phenomenon as both foreign and Chinese companies diversify their supply chains and operations," said Kuo-Yi Lim, co-founder and managing partner of Southeast Asian venture capital firm Monk's Hill Ventures. "The ASEAN-6 region has benefited from a diversification of global and regional supply chain as well as the adoption of 'China+1' strategies. MalaysiaMalaysia has seen semiconductor firms including Intel, GlobalFoundries and Infineon setting up or expanding operations in the country over the last few years amid U.S.-China tensions. Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD plans to start commercial production of EVs in Indonesia in 2026, according to local reports.
Persons: Vietnam John Harper, Kuo, Yi Lim, Lim, Yinglan Tan, Kai Wei Ang, CNBC's, It's, Ang, Anders C, Johansson, , Sokon – Organizations: Photodisc, Getty, Monk's Hill Ventures, ASEAN, Hong Kong SAR, Apple, Ventures Partners, Samsung, BofA Securities, Intel, GlobalFoundries, Infineon, U.S, Monk's Hill Ventures . Industry, Malaysia that's, Stockholm China Economic Research, Stockholm School of Economics, Chery, Singapore Locations: Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Asia, China, Washington, Beijing, Monk's, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, U.S, Japan, European Union, China & Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Vietnam Vietnam, ASEAN, Malaysia Malaysia, Stockholm China, EVs
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPossible that the People's Bank of China deemphasizes MLF: Goldman Sachs economistHui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the Chinese central bank's decision to keep a key policy interest rate unchanged and the outlook for its monetary policy.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan Organizations: People's Bank of China Locations: China
Crude oil futures rose Monday following their best week since April as traders sifted through mixed economic data out of China. U.S. crude oil and global benchmark Brent closed out last week nearly 4% higher, as analysts expect the market to tighten in the third quarter as summer fuel demand draws down inventories. Oil stockpiles should fall by 850,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "It's more of a sense that this market is likely to get tighter as we go deeper in summer," Croft told CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime" on Friday. Here are today's energy prices:"After three weeks of losses the oil complex finally made amends and gained some traction," said Tamas Varga, analyst at oil broker PVM.
Persons: Helima Croft, Croft, CNBC's, Tamas Varga Organizations: Brent, RBC Capital Markets Locations: China . U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is now facing 'a tale of two economies': Morgan Stanley economistRobin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, says the country's inflation print is a "great example" of the economy's "unbalanced growth."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing Organizations: China Locations: China
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