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Search resuls for: "China Academy of New"


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China's cabinet is soliciting proposals from economists and advisers, policy insiders told Reuters, with big changes needing approval from top party leaders, and investors now looking to an expected Politburo meeting in July for clues on policy direction. However, the modest borrowing cost cuts - limited by concerns over banks' profitability and currency stability - will not be enough to boost economic activity, policy insiders said. Authorities are also considering support for the ailing property sector after earlier measures failed to gain traction, including easing credit conditions and home buying curbs in some areas, policy insiders. Economists blame the fading recovery on the "scarring effects" caused by COVID and regulatory curbs on property and tech sectors, which have hit household and private sector spending. Supporting depressed private-sector firms, which account for 60% of economic output and 80% of urban employment, will be essential to lift incomes, jobs and consumption, policy insiders and analysts said.
Persons: Rory Green, Jia Kang, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: quicken, Reuters, People's Bank of China's, TS Lombard, China Academy of New, Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing
China's economic tsar, Liu He, a U.S.-trained economist who is seen as the brains behind earlier reforms, will be replaced by He Lifeng, another Xi acolyte. "We face the problem of weakening expectations and confidence and it's empty talk if we cannot revitalise the economy," Jia said. China's economic miracle started in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping kicked off historic reforms, allowing more private enterprises and opening the economy to foreign investment. The poll showed China's growth could pick up to 5.0% in 2023, helped by a lower base. Xi's Standing Committee choices disappointed investors who had been hoping he would keep some reform-minded officials, including former Guangdong party boss Wang Yang.
Then came the pandemic and a property crisis, and with them, clear evidence of the limits of the debt-fuelled, investment-driven model that had propelled China's economy and businesses like Shores'. "If there is no investment, consumption will be like a tree without roots," said Jia, who previously led a finance ministry think tank. Many uncertainties hang over China's economy: the zero-COVID policy, a crackdown on tech and other industries, geopolitical tensions and rising borrowing costs in export markets. China is widely expected to miss this year's 5.5% GDP growth target and Natixis estimates growth may not even top 3% a year into Xi's next mandate. Oxford Economics expects average annual GDP growth this decade to halve from the 1999-2019 average to 4.5% and slow to 3% in the decade after.
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