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In today's big story, the economy is heading in the right direction, but consumers aren't buying it . Things seem to be going really well for the economy, right? Consumers aren't feeling bullish about the economy these days. Last time around, pesky inflation was keeping things like groceries and housing costs high, even as the rest of the economy showed improvement. China's stimulus plan to boost its ailing economy sent emerging markets indexes to their highest level since April 2022 .
Persons: , Rebecca Zisser, We've, Insider's Juliana Kaplan, Spencer Platt, Getty, Tyler Le, We'll, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Steven Blitz, China's, aren't, Chelsea Jia Feng, weren't, Natalie Ammari, that's, Ron Sherman, Gen, Mark Zuckerberg, Dan DeFrancesco, Jack Sommers, Jordan Parker Erb, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Fed, Chelsea, Spotify, Visa, US Justice Department, Prosecutors, Meta Locations: Austin , Texas, New York, London
Read previewThere's a 70% chance the US economy is either in a recession or headed toward one in the months ahead, according to Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong. The one that stands out most to Wong is the much-talked-about sustained rise in the unemployment rate. "Initially, in all the recessions, this is how the unemployment rate tends to rise," she said. Another key metric economists watch to judge whether the economy is in recession is consumer spending, which makes up around two-thirds of GDP in the US. LendingTreeWong believes wealthier Americans are spending due to the wealth effect, where high asset prices boost consumer confidence and fuel spending.
Persons: , Anna Wong, Wong, Louis Fed, Louis Fed Wong, LendingTree Wong Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Fed Locations: St
Morgan Stanley is now looking ahead at the perfect mixture of conditions for a strong fourth quarter. The firm is squarely focused on an improvement in the labor market driving the best possible returns. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve nailed the rate-cut scenario that Morgan Stanley called its best-case result leading into the decision. Heading into last week's announcement, Morgan Stanley was looking for a 50-basis-point cut that didn't also stoke worries about unnecessary growth. To be sure, job conditions are not the only thing Morgan Stanley is watching.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, , didn't, Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Federal, Service, Reserve, stoke, Bank of America, Conference Board
Goldman SachsWage growth is down from 6% in August 2022 to 3.9%, according to Goldman Sachs. Still, Goldman Sachs thinks the US unemployment rate will drift down to 4% in 2025, which would be a healthy figure. An influx of immigrants may have affected this trend, Goldman Sachs economists say. Goldman SachsLabor costs rose 7% in 2023 for S&P 500 companies and 5% for firms in the Russell 2000, Goldman found. Goldman Sachs shared a sector-neutral list of 50 stocks in the S&P 500 that have high labor costs, which should disproportionately benefit as wage inflation slows as raises become rarer.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Russell, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Goldman, Chief US, Goldman Sachs Labor, Companies Locations: Goldman Sachs
Chief US Economist: More Trump tariffs could spur more rate cuts
  + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChief US Economist: More Trump tariffs could spur more rate cutsTom Porcelli of PGIM Fixed Income talks about Trump's tariffs, and how possible tariffs during a possible second term could weigh on the Fed's policy outlook.
Persons: Porcelli
Read previewThe Federal Reserve is expected to slash interest rates today for the first time since 2020 as the labor market and inflation continue to cool. AdvertisementAssuming a 25-basis-point cut at every FOMC meeting until next July, that would leave an extra 75 basis points the central bank would have to work into its policy adjustments over that time. One is that the consumer could be weaker than they appear, and the labor market is likely to deteriorate further. AdvertisementWhile the Fed hopes to stimulate spending with rate cuts, Tombs is skeptical that they'll the impact the central bank wants. Advertisement"New mortgage rates need to drop by about 250bp before they will undershoot the average outstanding mortgage rate," Tombs wrote.
Persons: , Jerome Powell's, Samuel Tombs, Tombs Organizations: Service, Business, Macroeconomics Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Analysts are increasingly recommending defensive stocks to blunt the impact of an economic slowdown. The S&P 500's consumer staples sector has risen more than 4% in the last month. AdvertisementAmid fears of a recession and increased market volatility, analysts have been pointing to defensive stocks as a safe bet to hedge macro risk. Among defensive sectors — which include things like real estate and financials — investors recently have been pouring into consumer staples in particular. With the Federal Reserve likely to finally cut rates at its meeting this week, defensive stocks could be poised for further growth.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, that's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: Service, Retailers, Walmart, Target, Bank of America, P Global Semiconductor, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Locations: cyclicals
Washington CNN —It’s a pivotal week for the US economy, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. Fed officials and investors have long anticipated that borrowing costs would come down in 2024 — at some point — according to their economic forecasts. But nine months in, rate cuts still haven’t happened, drenching Wall Street’s parade and leaving US consumers squeezed by elevated interest rates. Here’s why the Fed didn’t cut soonerIt’s simple: The Fed didn’t cut interest rates sooner because it could have reignited inflation or left it stuck above the central bank’s target. Bond yields, which move in anticipation of the Fed’ decisions on rates, have come down over the past several weeks based on signs encouraging the Fed to cut rates, such as weaker-than-expected employment data and cooling inflation.
Persons: Washington CNN — It’s, it’s, ” Oscar Muñoz, ” Muñoz, Jerome Powell, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, “ Jerome Powell’s, ” Philipp Carlsson Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wall, TD Securities, CNN, Kansas City, Capitol, White, Boston Consulting Group Locations: , Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The AI boom is still in its infancy, following the path of the internet in the 1990s, BofA said. AI's impact will be felt sooner than past tech booms, the bank says. Skepticism about AI has mounted recently as investors get impatient to see AI returns. "Skeptics declare that GenAI's revenue potential doesn't justify the current level of AI infrastructure investment," the report says. On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson said the AI investment theme has been "overcooked," and suggested investors should retreat into defensive stocks.
Persons: BofA, , Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, ChatGPT
In the meantime, they should take shelter in quality defensive stocks, Morgan Stanley says. We just got overcooked on the whole AI theme," Wilson said. AdvertisementWith the AI rally fading for now, Wilson says investors are waiting for a new theme to emerge, and taking shelter in "quality defensive stocks" in the meantime. "In our view, a slowing labor market is consistent with a late cycle backdrop and quality + defensive leadership," Wilson wrote. AdvertisementLast month, Wilson's team added three new quality defensive stocks to its "Fresh Money Buy List," which now totals nine stocks.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, , they're, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Morgan, We're Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Surveillance, Nvidia, Semiconductor
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewDon't expect the stock market's seemingly unstoppable rally to continue through the end of the year, says Stifel's Barry Bannister. "If Russia makes a countermove in Kursk, it would probably be between the election and January," Bannister said. 4 trades to make amid market turbulenceWith the market poised for a turbulent period ahead, Bannister said he prefers defensive value stocks, particularly the healthcare, utilities, consumer staples, and real estate sectors. "Seventy percent of all the outperformance of defensive or value occurs before a recession is actually declared," Bannister said.
Persons: , Stifel's Barry Bannister, Bannister, — Bannister, there's, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Utilities, Consumer, UCITS Locations: Russia, Kursk, Iran, China
And so does the broader US economy: Economic growth this year has been solid and the Atlanta Fed is projecting that growth hasn’t slipped. “The labor market is cooling, but it’s not getting soft. A slowing job market is also playing a role in nudging the Fed to ease borrowing costs. Translation: The recent weakness in the job market could result in American shoppers curbing their spending more than expected. A big question mark is the future of America’s job market, which is a key driver of the US economy.
Persons: Washington CNN —, , Jerome Powell, , “ Powell, Seema Shah, hasn’t, ” Tom Porcelli, it’s, Powell, cooldown, ” Powell, aren’t, they’re, , “ There’s, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Markets, Asset Management, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, CNN, Walmart, America’s Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, nudging
That’s precisely why the Fed is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time since 2020. Therein lies the one question on everyone’s mind: How aggressively will the Fed ultimately cut rates? A high threshold for jumbo rate cutsThe Fed makes its decisions on interest rates consistent with what’s happening in the economy. Fed officials have mostly signaled that they’re finally ready to cut rates, but some have still expressed some hesitance. But, for now, there’s no emergency demanding the Fed cut rates aggressively next month, or any time later in the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, pare, Price, Powell, “ They’re, ” Tani Fukui, they’re, Raphael Bostic, ” Powell, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Labor Department, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Traders, MetLife Investment Management, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Citi, Oxford Economics Locations: Unemployment, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Read previewThe labor market is trending in the wrong direction, but it might not be time to sound the alarm just yet. The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months and at 4.3%, it's the highest it's been in nearly three years. However, there are some reasons it might be too soon to freak out about the labor market. AdvertisementSatyam Panday, chief US economist for S&P Global Ratings, said in a note published on August 6 that the slowing labor market appears to suggest a "normalization" of a previously red-hot labor market, rather than an "economy that's about to slip into a recession." The labor market might get worseTo be sure, there are plenty of reasons to remain concerned about the state of the labor market.
Persons: , there's, it's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Manuel Abecasis, they've, It's, Goldman Sachs that's, Satyam Panday, Michael Gapen, JP Morgan, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Federal, Satyam, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, New Century Advisors Locations: US
During the sell-off, strategists at Goldman Sachs recommended buying the dip in US stocks, albeit carefully, as they reiterated their year-end S&P 500 price target of 5,600. Economically sensitive stocks have lagged defensives by at least 5 percentage points in a single week 12 times since 2000, according to Goldman Sachs. "Despite the weak jobs report, our economists believe continued economic expansion is far more likely than recession," Kostin wrote. Goldman Sachs found that those micro factors explained 86% of stock returns in the first half of 2024, versus the long-term average of 57%. Fewer worries about the near-term economic outlook mean stocks will no longer trade in lockstep — a win for active investors.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, abate, lockstep — Organizations: Service, Goldman, Business, Institute of Supply, Walmart Locations: Japan, lockstep, Monday's
Related storiesWhile those concerns served as the kindling, it was the July jobs report that sparked terror. A closer look at the jobs report reveals that while job additions underwhelmed, jobless claims were also minimal. AdvertisementSecond-quarter earnings growth has been impressive so far and seems set to rise by low single digits, according to UBS GWM. The bullish strategy chief remarked in a note Monday that six of the 11 market sectors have enjoyed double-digit earnings growth this quarter, while only three have seen declines. "Such sell-offs can offer an opportunity to 'catch babies tossed out with the bath water,'" Stoltzfus wrote.
Persons: , Oppenheimer, Jonathan Golub, Oppenheimer Jason Draho, Americas Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Beryl, Draho, That's, David Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus Organizations: Service, Business, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Labor, UBS GWM Locations: Americas
Investors are de-risking their portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock-market sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid fears of a downturn. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and whether it's too late to fend off recession. AdvertisementDetailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear investors are employing the recession playbook:1. "Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate-cut expectations.
Persons: , it's, they've, David Sekera, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Global, ETF, Rosenberg Research, Ned Davis Research
The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.
Persons: , July’s, , , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American
Earnings-revision breadth, cited as a bullish market driver, has deteriorated, Morgan Stanley says. But industrial stocks are still uniquely positioned to outperform, the firm says. AdvertisementA key driver of stock-market bullishness is deteriorating, although there are still opportunities available, Morgan Stanley wrote in new research. The firm is referring to earnings-revision breadth, which enjoyed an increase that coincided with a rally in small-cap stocks in recent weeks. The chart below shows a deceleration in earnings-revision breadth for S&P 500 companies in recent months:Morgan Stanley"This does not offer support for a broad cyclical rotation," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Mike Wilson, Industrials Organizations: Companies, Service, CIO
Some business leaders and wealthy donors are hopeful that Harris will adopt more centrist policies as she outlines her agenda, especially by dialing back Biden-era antitrust crackdowns. “CEOs are wildly excited about Harris,” Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, founder and president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, told CNN in a phone interview. Sonnenfeld pointed to confidence that Harris will protect the rule of law and hopes for recalibrated trade, regulatory and tax policies. Meanwhile, Harris, somewhat of an unknown commodity on business policy, hasn’t said much about where she stands. Another key sticking point is energy, where Trump has tried to blame the Biden-Harris administration for periods of high gas prices.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Biden, ” Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Sonnenfeld, Lina Khan, Khan’s, hasn’t, , , Greg Valliere, Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, Khan, Hoffman, Barry Diller, Diller, It’s, ” Diller, , haven’t, PCCC, Adam Green, Harris –, ” Green, Lina Khan –, ” Sonnenfeld, “ It’s, Douglas Farrar, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, ” Trump, “ You’re, Lauren Hitt, didn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Biden, Big Tech, Democratic, Yale, Leadership, CNN, Federal Trade Commission, Progressives, AGF Investments, Business, Big Oil, Microsoft, FTC, , Activision, CNBC, IAC, Progressive, Khan, Public Citizen, AFL, NAACP, Harris Administration Locations: New York, North Carolina
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will wait for July inflation data before signaling September rate cut: Goldman Sachs' MericleDavid Mericle, Goldman Sachs Chief US Economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the economy, possible rate cuts and more.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Goldman Organizations: US Locations: Goldman Sachs
Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, says that he’s watching for insights on banks’ delinquency rates. Consumers have increasingly fallen behind on or missed payments in recent months as they get squeezed by high interest rates. But banks could see higher losses compared to 2023 if the economy were to experience a downturn, the Fed warned. Investors are wagering that the central bank will begin easing rates as soon as September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “The worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation: higher rates and recession,” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Dave Sekera, Stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Matt Egan, it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, Erika Tulfo, “ It’s, Neil Saunders, Abrigo, Gen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United, United States ’, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morningstar, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, JPMorgan, CNBC, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, CNN, GlobalData, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, China
Stocks are likely to drop around 10% between now and the November election, Morgan Stanley predicted. That's because corporate earnings look weak and need several catalysts to improve, the bank's Mike Wilson said. Other forecasters have sounded the alarm for a soon-to-come correction as stocks look overvalued. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks are poised to see a double-digit drop, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson.
Persons: Stocks, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, , Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, That's, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business
Housing prices around the country have been rising at a dizzying pace since the pandemic, increasing 6% on average in just the last year. With these rapid increases, homeowners can command a pretty penny in today's red-hot housing market. But according to Bank of America, there's still room for prices to go higher. AdvertisementBank of AmericaAlthough the Fed is expected to cut rates later this year, Bank of America doesn't foresee mortgage rates falling much in the near future. Prices could increase beyond 2026In this market, homeowners can take advantage of at least two more years of price appreciation.
Persons: , there's, Michael Gapen, Gapen doesn't, Gapen, Millennials Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, National Association of Realtors
Stocks within the adoption frameworkWhile there could be a few angles one might use to determine where a company fits within AI's development, Goldman Sachs created their version of AI's adoption phases. Additional early winners of AI were mega-cap technology names that had steep earnings growth and attracted a lot of investors. Throughout 2023, there was a 53% gap in annual earnings growth between the top five AI names and the rest of the S&P 500. But as we enter 2025, Goldman estimates that the earnings growth between the big five and the rest of the market will tighten. The graph below demonstrates Goldman's forecast of a slowdown in earnings growth from the concentrated names and a modest pickup for the broader market.
Persons: , It's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Service, Business, Chief US, Nvidia, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Management
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