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Search resuls for: "Chief China Economist Hui Shan"


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But the country could see growth pick up this fall, Goldman Sachs' chief China economist says. Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementAfter a long downturn, China's economy may be poised for a turnaround, Goldman Sachs says. Goldman's chief China economist Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks as reasons to believe the country's fortunes could soon change.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, , Shan Organizations: Service, Business Locations: China
A real estate construction site in Wanxiang City, Huai 'an City, East China's Jiangsu province, May 17, 2024. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's sweeping moves on Friday to increase support for real estate will take time to show results, analysts said. Despite the news, S&P is still sticking to its base case from earlier in the month that China's property market is likely still "searching for a bottom," Edward Chan, director, corporate ratings, said during the firm's webinar on Monday. But he pointed out that for real estate to see significant stabilization, homebuyers' demand and confidence will need to improve after a market downturn of nearly three years. "We believe Beijing is headed in the right direction with regard to ending the epic housing crisis," Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.
Persons: Huai, Edward Chan, Ting, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Chief China Economist Hui Shan, Ting Lu, P's Chan Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, BEIJING, Chief China Economist, China Locations: Wanxiang City, City, East China's Jiangsu, Hong Kong, Beijing, Ting Lu, China
(Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images) Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesGoldman Sachs became the latest Wall Street bank to downgrade its growth forecast for China, as the world's second-largest economy stutters and loses momentum after its coronavirus reopening. "With the reopening boost quickly fading, medium-term challenges such as demographics, the multi-year property downturn, local government implicit debt problems, and geopolitical tensions may start to become more important in China's growth outlook," they said. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconUBS also sees continued weakness in China's economy ahead, particularly focusing on the second quarter of the year. Wang noted that uncertainty in China's property sector remains a central risk to its forecast and could bring its growth outlook even lower. "Risks to our forecast is slightly biased towards the downside, mainly from uncertainties in property market and path of property policy support ahead, as well as weaker external demand," she said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Chief China Economist Hui Shan, Wang Tao, Wang Organizations: Getty, Nurphoto, Chief China Economist, UBS, Bank of America, JPMorgan, U.S, People's Bank of, Federal, UBS Investment Bank's Locations: Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu Province, China, People's Bank of China, saar
Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesChina's much-vaunted economic rebound after its emergence from strict zero-Covid lockdown measures has yet to fully materialize, prompting some economists to speculate that further fiscal stimulus or monetary policy easing could be coming down the pipeline. Data from China's Bureau of Statistics shows that 6 million of the 96 million 16 to 24-year-olds in the urban labor force are currently unemployed. watch nowIn a research note Monday, Capital Economics assessed that, despite losing some momentum, China's economic recovery was still progressing at the start of the second quarter, with scope for further service sector-led improvement. But we do not expect policy rate cut or major fiscal stimulus, barring a precipitous fall in exports in the coming months." Any consensus among economists as to the trajectory of fiscal and monetary policy seems to be unraveling in light of the tenuous recovery.
The economy grew 3% in 2022, less than Beijing's official target of around 5.5% set in March last year. For 2023, the government last month set a modest growth target of "around 5%." On pace to exceed targetGoldman Sachs said China's first-quarter growth of 4.5% supports the firm's full-year outlook for the economy to grow 6%. "Today's data are in line with our full-year bullish view for China growth," Goldman Sachs' chief China economist Hui Shan told CNBC. We keep the full-year GDP forecast at 5% as external demand should be a concern for the year," Pang wrote.
China's exports started to fall year-on-year in October — for the first time since May 2020, according to Wind Information. Net exports had supported China's GDP growth over the last several years, contributing as much as 1.7 percentage points in 2021, the analysts said. But China's exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have picked up, surpassing those to the U.S. and EU on a monthly basis in November, according to customs data. They expect ASEAN's GDP growth to rebound in 2023, while the U.S. and EU spend part of next year in recession. Jin pointed out that China's car exports, especially of electric cars and related parts, helped support overall exports this year.
Hector Retamal | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — As mainland China relaxes many of its stringent Covid controls, analysts point out the country is far from a quick return to a pre-pandemic situation. Mainland China's daily Covid infections, mostly asymptomatic, surged to a record high above 40,000 in late November. Looking ahead, it's pretty clear that China's Covid policy is about to cross a turning point, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL. That means there may be a surge in Covid infections, and China's policy will never go back, Pang said. Goldman Sachs analysts expect China's reopening — defined as a shift away from lockdowns — to come in the second quarter of 2023, according to a separate report on Wednesday.
China's stocks, yuan tumble as COVID protests rattle nerves
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A U.S. crackdown on Chinese tech giants citing national security concerns also weighed on shares of technology firms. Nevertheless, the social unrest and rising coronavirus cases had fuelled expectations of an earlier end to China's zero-COVID policy, putting a floor under stocks and boosting tourism and consumer shares. "The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category. While state media has not reported the protests, photos and videos of the protests circulated on social media. "The demonstrations ... mean the current COVID policy mix is no longer politically sustainable.
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