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☆ The Fed engineered a miracle. Now comes the hard part.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Yet two months into 2024, Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues seems to have nearly pulled off what many would have called a miracle not long ago. Between a rock and a hard placeThe January Fed meeting minutes reinforced policymakers' careful approach for the months ahead. AdvertisementTo be sure, as far as policy expectations, markets have only recently arrived on the same page as the Fed. "The Fed doesn't want to be seen as having allowed inflation to reignite," he added. "The Fed doesn't want to undo all the good work they've done, and needlessly push the economy into a recession."

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, James McCann, Abrdn, Gene Goldman, CME's, Gregory Draco, Draco, Larry Summers, Summers, Cetera's Goldman, Goldman, Abrdn's McCann, McCann Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Co, Fed, Cetera Investment Management, Bloomberg

The business group’s consumer confidence index rose to 114.8 from a revised 108 in December. The present situation Index – a measure of current business and labor market conditions – surged to 161.3 from 147.2 last month. And it comes as the Federal Reserve is meeting in Washington to set interest rate policy, with economists forecasting the central bank will hold interest rates steady. But, he adds, “The Fed’s not going to change” at its first meeting of 2024 that began on Tuesday and do anything other than hold interest rates steady for the fourth meeting in a row. The index often leads other consumer sentiment surveys by two to three months, says Legal Shield CEO Warren Schlichting.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, Stephen Rich, Melissa Brown, Jerome Powell, Gene Goldman, Warren Schlichting, Schlichting, it’s Organizations: Conference, Mutual of America Capital Management, Federal Reserve, Investment Management, “, Labor Department, ADP Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ Investing veterans break down their outlook for the year ahead as markets return to pre-2008 conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Goldman Sachs said the S&P 500 can climb 8% in 2024 as pre-2008 conditions return. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The major indexes are up in 2023, with the S&P 500 notching a healthy gain of more than 17% year-to-date. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said he expects about a 10% gain for the S&P 500 in 2024. Meanwhile, Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, expects "high single-digit returns" in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, David Russell, Russell, boomers, Millennials, Steve Wyett, Wyett, Mark Hackett, Hackett, Gene Goldman, Brian Price, Jeff Buchbinder, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal, Fed, BOK Financial, Nationwide, Business, Cetera Investment Management, LPL Financial

A majority of Federal Reserve officials believed at their September meeting that interest rates would need to remain “restrictive” until they are convinced inflation is headed firmly toward the central bank’s 2% annual target. Though there were differences as to whether more interest rate hikes would be needed, a majority did favor one more increase, minutes from the meeting released Wednesday show. Since then, market interest rates have surged, with the yields on U.S. Treasurys reaching 5%, although they have backed off in recent days following uncertainty over the war between Hamas and Israel. Still, the bond market does seem to be buying the “higher for longer” message from the Fed. “We think the Fed is done” raising interest rates, says Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.

Persons: Gene Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasurys, Cetera Investment Management, Goldman Locations: Israel

☆ Here's where Wall Street strategists see the stock market headed next after a brutal September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are coming off a brutal two-month stretch, and Wall Street is divided on what comes next. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is coming off back-to-back rocky months, and Wall Street is split on what could be coming next for investors. And Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire founder of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that Treasury yields suggest it's time to start worrying about a severe downturn.

Persons: Stocks, Fundstrat, —, Quincy Krosby, Jay Woods, Woods, jitters, Kevin McCarthy, Gene Goldman, Goldman, Tom Lee, Lee, Marko Kolanovic, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Treasury, Cetera Investment Management, CNBC, DoubleLine

Earlier this week data showed falling factory orders and soft manufacturing activity. Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May stood at 60.5%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike was at 39.5%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Defensive stocks such as consumer staples (.SPLRCS) were in the green among major S&P 500 sectors, with healthcare (.SPXHC) and utilities (.SPLRCU) hitting their highest in close to two months. The benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq are now on track for their first weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 23 new highs and 185 new lows.

"It's going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%." She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who back in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Similarly none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response, though all continued to signal more rate hikes would be required. And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts towards the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%. "It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas.

☆ Reddit-loving retail investors are making their chaotic presence felt again - and their risky behavior is fueling a stock rally that doesn't look sustainable
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bullish sentiment has returned in a big way among retail investors as they've started the year piling record amounts into stocks. Speculative bets are backSome of what retail investors are buying has troubled observers. Different from 2021, however, is that institutional and retail investors look like they're on the same team, at least to a noticeable degree. To JPMorgan's Kolanovic, retail investors' optimism foreshadows future weakness in the stock market, as weak hands get wiped out by volatility, similar to how 2022 played out. With the Fed still set to tighten monetary policy, retail investors' enthusiasm for risky assets could backfire like it did last year.

☆ Speculative bets are cool again and Reddit's army of retail investors is partying like it's 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

And yet, despite the dip this week, markets right now are brimming with bullishness — and Reddit-loving retail investors are partying like it's 2021. Retail investors are rebuffing Jerome Powell in piling into speculative assets. Remember, at the start of the pandemic, government stimulus and near-zero interest rates gave retail investors the perfect opportunity to lay down speculative bets. "With all of these headwinds, retail investors are jumping in on maybe some ill-conceived optimism," Goldman said. But economic data be damned, retail investors are still piling into the riskiest corners of the market.

☆ There's a massive disconnect between markets and the Fed - and Jerome Powell's messaging could fall upon deaf ears
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Let's break down what to know ahead of the Federal Reserve's widely expected interest rate hike today. Today's rate hike decision probably won't surprise anyone, as markets have long priced in a 25-basis-point move for the February and March meetings. Goldman said he'll be watching for three things in Powell's speech:Powell will talk tough: "He's going to push back on financial markets. In any case, according to Reinking, unless Powell musters up some serious aggression, any messaging will ultimately fall upon deaf ears. What will your investment strategy look like following another interest rate hike from the Fed?

☆ VIEW U.S. consumer prices fall in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and other goods, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend. The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures fall after the inflation data BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields slid across the board. But I will note that it is an especially volatile period, which is not atypical for inflection points in market expectations and the broader macro outlook." BRIAN KLIMKE, INVESTMENT DIRECTOR, CETERA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, LOS ANGELES"It (the report) came in as expected, but investors were somewhat optimistic leading into this reading, so that they were buying the rumor and selling the new.

☆ Instant View: U.S. consumer prices fall in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and other goods, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend. The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures fall after the inflation dataBONDS: U.S. Treasury yields slid across the board.FOREX: The dollar fell against the euro and yen. But I will note that it is an especially volatile period, which is not atypical for inflection points in market expectations and the broader macro outlook." BRIAN KLIMKE, INVESTMENT DIRECTOR, CETERA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, LOS ANGELES"It (the report) came in as expected, but investors were somewhat optimistic leading into this reading, so that they were buying the rumor and selling the new.

☆ Amazon's confident economists are the antidote to predictions of doom for the tech industry in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Asia Martin | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A study from Amazon economists estimates a 30% chance of a US recession in the next 6 months. If there is a recession, Amazon is banking on a few factors to avoid much of the disruption. And yet, Amazon's economists reckon this won't affect the company as much as other businesses. If a recession does occur, Amazon economists don't think the company will endure much pain. Much of the economic pain in the tech industry is concentrated in unprofitable tech companies that can't stomach more interest rate hikes.

☆ Housing slump to continue but some hopeful signs ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-18 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

While that’s already had a negative impact on the housing market, we’ll get more details this week about how much worse the damage has become. A long list of housing data is on tap. On Tuesday the US Census Bureau will report housing starts and building permits figures for November, followed by Friday’s release of new home sales data for the same month. Housing market was frothy, but not a bubbleOthers in the industry are cautiously optimistic as well. That all amounts to a few good reasons why the housing market could avoid a severe and prolonged slump.

☆ Toys, washing machines, doughnuts: 10 items that actually got cheaper last month
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But the price of some items actually declined in the last month, from washing machines to jewelry to doughnuts. Inflation has cooled from a year-over-year June peak of 9.1% to 7.7% in October, so declines are expected for some items. Given the slowing economy and widespread concerns of a recession, price drops for high-end luxury items like smartphones and jewelry are to be expected, too, he says. While this is good news for shoppers, most items with price declines in October are still more expensive than they were last year. For instance, prices for washers and dryers declined by 7.8% last month, but they are still up 1.5% compared to last October.

☆ Nasdaq futures rise for a third day as better-than-expected Netflix results keep tech gains going
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Nasdaq futures jumped Tuesday evening after the major averages posted a second straight day of gains, and Netflix reported strong earnings after the bell. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.4%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.7%. All three of the major stock averages finished the regular trading day higher, as earnings reports boosted a choppy market. The Dow closed higher by about 337 points, while the S&P 500 gained 1.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.9%. "Earnings estimates are a bit too high for the S&P 500 at 7% to 9% per year going forward," he said.

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