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☆ Oil slips as U.S. storm threat eases, China stimulus disappoints
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices extended declines on Monday as the threat of a supply disruption from a U.S. storm eased and after China's stimulus plan disappointed investors seeking fuel demand growth in the world's No. Oil consumption in China, the world's driver of global demand growth for years, has barely grown in 2024 as its economic growth has slowed, gasoline use has declined with the rapid growth of electric vehicles and liquefied natural gas has replaced diesel as a truck fuel. Oil prices have also eased after concerns about supply disruption from storm Rafael in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico subsided. More than a quarter of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and 16% of natural gas output remained offline on Sunday, according to the offshore energy regulator. Looking ahead, uncertainty from policies under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump have clouded the global economic outlook although expectations that he could tighten sanctions on OPEC producers Iran and Venezuela and cut oil supply to global markets partly caused oil prices to gain more than 1% last week.

Persons: Tony Sycamore, Rafael, Donald Trump, refiners Organizations: Brent, West Texas, National People's Congress, ANZ, Central Economic Work Conference, U.S Locations: U.S, China, U.S . Gulf, Mexico, Iran, Venezuela

☆ China's stock market is in a 3-year slump and Beijing's flip-flops are adding to the confusion
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's stock market lost more than $6 trillion in valuation from 2021 through last week. The market is confused by Beijing's policy stance on the economy, per Nomura economists. AdvertisementA brutal downcycle in China's stock market has wiped out over $6 trillion in valuations since 2021 — and policymakers in Beijing may be adding to the turmoil. "There has been increasing confusion over Beijing's policy stance on the economy," wrote Nomura economists in a Monday note seen by Business Insider. While China's stock market is still in the dumps, some see opportunities ahead.

Persons: —, Bloomberg's, Xi Jinping's, Ji Min Organizations: Bloomberg, Nomura, Service, CSI, People's Bank of China, Business, Economic Work, China Morning Locations: Beijing, China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen

☆ China's property 'inventory overhang' could take more than 10 years to correct, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-04 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The site of a real estate building under construction in Huai 'an city, Jiangsu province, China, December 26, 2023. "If you look at the inventory overhang situation — at this sales rate — it will take about two years to clear all the inventory that is outstanding in the market," Hong told CNBC Street Signs Asia on Thursday. At the same time, one has to find new growth spots for the economy to go forward, instead of just relying on just the property sector and property investment for economic growth," Hong said. One has to find new growth spots for the economy to go forward, instead of just relying on just the property sector and property investment for economic growth. "This time around, it seems to us that the property sector has peaked and the long cycle is coming down.

Persons: Huai, Hao Hong, Hong, China's Organizations: Getty, Investment, CNBC, Beijing, Economic Work Locations: Jiangsu province, China

☆ Moody's cuts China credit outlook, citing lower growth, property risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A Chinese national flag flutters at the headquarters of a commercial bank on a financial street near the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, in central Beijing November 24, 2014. "The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector," Moody's said. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary," the ministry said. STRUGGLING FOR TRACTIONMost analysts believe China's growth is on track to hit the government's target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven. Analysts widely agree that China's growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Moody's, Ken Cheung, Pan Gongsheng, COVID, Goldman Sachs, Gnaneshwar Rajan, Kevin Yao, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Mizuho Bank, Economic Work Conference, Fitch, China's Finance Ministry, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Bengaluru

☆ China's policy support is a 'stop-gap' measure — not stimulus, SocGen economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Close up of Chinese Yuan notes, with Mao Tse-tung Peter Dazeley | The Image Bank | Getty ImagesChina's recent policy support is aimed at fixing its system and shouldn't be seen as economic stimulus, according to Societe Generale's Asia chief economist and head of research. PMI divergenceExpansion in China's services sector climbed to its strongest since August, a private survey on Tuesday showed. However, the private survey diverged from China's official PMI. The moderating manufacturing PMI and contracting services PMI, along with other November data point to the fragility of the Chinese economy and a faster deceleration of growth momentum last month, they added. The official PMI includes more companies engaged in heavy industries compared with the Caixin PMI, which covers more consumer-focused firms, Barclays economists said.

Persons: Yuan, Mao Tse, Peter Dazeley, Wei Yao, Yao, Jian Chang Organizations: Bank, Getty, Societe Generale's, CNBC, Economic Work Conference, China Communist, PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Barclays Locations: Societe Generale's Asia, China

☆ Exclusive: China govt advisers call for steady growth target in 2024, more stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Five of the seven advisers who spoke with Reuters said they favoured a target of around 5%, matching this year's goal. The proposals will be made next month at the ruling Communist Party's annual Central Economic Work Conference that discusses policy plans and the outlook for the world's second-largest economy. "We need to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate aggregate demand," Yu Yongding, a government economist who advocates for a growth target of roughly 5%, told Reuters. "We are stepping up fiscal policy support," said another adviser, to make the "difficult" 2024 target "achievable." The stuttering post-COVID recovery has prompted many analysts to call for structural reforms that tilt the drivers of economic growth away from property and infrastructure investment and towards household consumption and market-allocation of resources.

Persons: Yu Yongding, Yu, Guan Tao, Xi Jinping, Kevin Yao, Marius Zaharia Organizations: Reuters, Communist, Economic Work Conference, BOC International, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, Beijing, outflows, Japan

[1/3] The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. Beijing needs to pull "multiple levers" at the same time to address the "vulnerabilities" in the financial system, local government financing, as well as consumer sentiment, said Edward Al-Hussainy, head of emerging market fixed income research at Columbia Threadneedle, which owns Country Garden bonds. China property sector slumpShoring up confidence is the biggest challenge facing Beijing and is key to getting homebuyers spending again, which analysts says isn't likely to happen soon given an uncertain economic outlook. Reuters reported last week that Chinese authorities have asked domestic financial behemoth Ping An Insurance Group to take a controlling stake in Country Garden. "You need to fix the macro environment first; if you don't earn enough how do you buy a property?," said Xu, whose firm holds China property dollar bonds.

Persons: Aly, Edward Al, isn't, Morgan Stanley, Ping, Ping An, Elliot Hentov, Steven Xu, Xu, Raymond Cheng, Goldman Sachs, Clare Jim, Davide Barbuscia, Karin Strohecker, Summer Zhen, Rae Wee, Sumeet Chatterjee Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, HONG KONG, Columbia, Reuters, HK, Economic Work Conference, Reuters Graphics, HIT, Insurance Group, State Street Global Advisors, Country, Harmonia, Bloomberg, China, CIBM Securities, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Beijing, outflows, Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Wall Street brokerages raise China's 2023 economic growth forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Susan Mathew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 18 (Reuters) - JP Morgan, Citigroup and Nomura on Wednesday lifted their forecast for China's economic growth for the year following upbeat data, but highlighted the need for more stimulus. Citigroup now expects China's GDP to grow 5.3% in 2023 from 5% earlier, while JP Morgan and Nomura see it at 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively. JP Morgan expects the economic momentum to persist in the coming months. Since the 5% growth target looks achievable, policy space could be saved for next year, Zheng said. JP Morgan expects China's potential growth coming down faster than initially expected in 2024 and 2025 to a range of 4%-4.5% and 3.5%-4%, respectively.

Persons: Thomas Peter, JP Morgan, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Haibin Zhu, Morgan Stanley, Jenny Zheng, Zheng, Albee Zhang, Susan Mathew, Christian Schmollinger, Eileen Soreng Organizations: REUTERS, Citigroup, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China

☆ Morgan Stanley says China's reflation journey will be 'slow and bumpy'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley says China's reflation journey will be 'slow and bumpy'More reflationary and restructuring policy at the Chinese Communist Party's December central economic work conference will help lift inflation print to a more normal range, said Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's chief China economist.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, China's, Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Communist Locations: China

☆ Analysis: China's economic woes embolden calls for deeper reforms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Both camps argue their proposals should be treated with urgency by policymakers, ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, an agenda-setting gathering of top leaders expected in December. The pro-reform camp is beating the drum for faster structural reforms, including relaxing the system of residence permits, or "hukou", to spur consumption, removing market entry barriers for private firms at the cost of state giants. Reforms are urgently needed as growth engines such as property, exports and infrastructure are stalling, he said. Structural reforms with expansionary effects can also have immediate effects." TIGHTROPEDespite the heated debate, analysts expect Chinese leaders can walk a tightrope between stimulus and reforms.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Yu Yongding, Yu, Kristalina Georgieva, Liu Shijin, Liu, It's, Tao Wang, Deng Xiaoping, Yi Xianrong, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: Central Business, REUTERS, Economic Work Conference, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Fund, UBS, Asian Development Bank, Qingdao University, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, China's, United States

☆ China's economic woes embolden calls for deeper reforms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Structural reforms with expansionary effects can also have immediate effects." TIGHTROPEDespite the heated debate, analysts expect Chinese leaders can walk a tightrope between stimulus and reforms. Rob Subbaraman, chief economist at Nomura, said short-term stimulus would spur growth but at the cost of worsening structural distortions. Meanwhile, structural reforms would bring short-term pain and take longer to boost activity, but produce higher quality, sustainable growth over time. "China needs both, whereas it is where it is now because historically it's relied more on policy stimulus than on the harder structural reforms," he said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Yu Yongding, Yu, Kristalina Georgieva, Liu Shijin, Liu, It's, Rob Subbaraman, Deng Xiaoping, Yi Xianrong, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: Central Business, REUTERS, Economic Work Conference, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Fund, Nomura, Asian Development Bank, Qingdao University, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, China's, United States

☆ China has U-turned on almost all major policies it put in place in the last 3 years — and it's not surprising, given the state of its economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

But the country reversed some major policies in response to the abysmal GDP growth. China's GDP grew by 3% in 2022 — the worst since the chaotic Cultural Revolution ended. Most recently, after three years of pandemic lockdowns and isolation, China abruptly reversed course and abolished its zero-COVID policy — leaving the world guessing why. China's GDP grew only 3.0% in 2022 — the worst in nearly half a century since the chaotic Cultural Revolution ended. China's GDP growth is vital because it is the world's second-largest economy after the US, so it's a driving force for global investment and trade.

☆ 'The worst is over': Tech investors are bullish on investing in China again
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Sheila Chiang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Liu Ranyang | China News Service | Getty ImagesTech investors say the worst is over as China reopens and exits its zero-Covid policy. The firm raised nearly $500 million for a new China tech fund set to close by early this year — more than earlier plans for $400 million. Tech companies see government supportInvestors are not worried of new challenges on the regulatory front. Gobi's Tang said, "I do think that they're going to do everything they can to try to spur the economic growth. "There's still a lot to catch up [in semiconductor tech] for China.

☆ Exclusive: China eyes help for shell-shocked consumers but big stimulus unlikely-sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

That has raised expectations that hefty household stimulus measures could be announced at a parliament meeting in March. Prominent academics have felt emboldened to speak publicly about sizeable demand-side measures such as 1 trillion yuan ($148.28 billion) or more in consumption vouchers. Some analysts say pent-up demand during the pandemic may be enough for consumption to grow with little policy support. Household savings jumped 7.9 trillion yuan last year to 17.8 trillion yuan. Several Chinese cities have already offered about 5 billion yuan in consumption vouchers and subsidies in total since December.

☆ Alibaba, other China ADRs surge as Ant Group capital plan approval fuels hope for relaxing scrutiny
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Alibaba has faced growth challenges amid regulatory tightening on China's domestic technology sector and a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Chinese tech stocks that trade in the U.S. jumped Wednesday morning after Chinese officials approved an expanded capital plan from Ant Group. U.S.-listed shares of Alibaba jumped more than 6% in premarket trading after the news, as did stock of JD.com . The moves come as investors are seeing signs of a more relaxed Chinese regulatory environment. Correction: Chinese tech stocks that trade in the U.S. jumped Wednesday morning.

☆ China Jan-Nov industrial profit data shows deepening slump
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Industrial profits fell 3.6% in January-November from a year earlier to 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.11 trillion), according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday. Business confidence in China has fallen to its lowest level since January 2013, a survey showed last week, reflecting the impact of surging COVID cases on economic activity. At this year's closed-door Central Economic Work Conference, top leaders and policymakers pledged to step up policy adjustments to support the slowing economy. Industrial profit data covers large firms with annual revenues above 20 million yuan from their main operations. ($1 = 6.9601 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Joe Cash and Ellen Zhang; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Industrial profits fell 3.6% in January-November from a year earlier to 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.11 trillion), according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday. Industrial profits could fall further in December with many cities facing a surge in COVID infections, said Hao Zhou, chief economist at GTJAI. For January-November, profits at private-sector firms shrank 7.9%, a slight improvement from the 8.1% fall in the first 10 months. China's economic growth was just 3% in the first three quarters of this year and is expected to stay around that rate for the full year, one of its worst years in almost half a century. Industrial profit data covers large firms with annual revenues above 20 million yuan from their main operations.

HONG KONG, Dec 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China has become a headache for Western executives. The good news is that the dilemma need not require drastic action from U.S. and European chief executives, since local Chinese partners could solve the problem by relocating themselves. Foreign executives have had a hard time dealing with China’s zero-Covid policy, rising labour costs and U.S. tariffs. On the other hand, existing economic interests plus Beijing’s renewed push to attract foreign investment both argue for staying put. But if Chinese suppliers now start boosting foreign investment to keep hold of key customers, the government may have little choice but to give its blessing.

Now, as the country rapidly relaxes restrictions, millions of people have been told to keep going to work — even if they’re infected. For three years, its stringent approach has kept Covid cases and deaths relatively low in the country. Covid control workers walk by a closed shop near a community with residents under health monitoring for Covid on December 4 in Beijing. Top leaders at the Central Economic Work Conference, a key annual meeting that ended Friday, said in a statement that stabilizing economic growth was the top priority for 2023. Officials nationwide had worked frantically to contain Covid cases ahead of the highly sensitive twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle, which saw Chinese leader Xi Jinping emerge more powerful than ever into his third term.

☆ China holds benchmark lending rates for 4th consecutive month
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, Dec 20 (Reuters) - China kept benchmark lending interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month on Tuesday, matching the forecasts of most market watchers who nevertheless expect further monetary easing to prop up a slowing economy. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was left at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was held at 4.30%. Market watchers regard MLF announcements as guides to any LPR changes. Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ, said with rates unchanged, household spending would continue without any increase in disposable income. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

☆ China steps up support for private sector to boost Covid-hit economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —Beijing has vowed to go all out next year to save its Covid-hit economy by boosting consumption and loosening control over private industry, including the struggling tech and property sectors. Covid infections are surging in China after leaders unexpectedly eased its restrictive Covid policy earlier this month. Stabilizing economic growth is the top priority for 2023, according to an official readout following the conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), a key annual meeting of top leaders, which ended Friday. “We need to encourage and support the private sector economy and private enterprise in terms of policy and public opinion,” the statement said. A shopping mall is decorated with rabbit stickers to welcome the Lunar New Year, the Year of the Rabbit, on December 10, 2022 in Beijing, China.

☆ China to maintain ample liquidity in 2023 to implement proactive fiscal policy - state media
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SHANGHAI, Dec 17 (Reuters) - China will maintain reasonably ample liquidity in financial markets while better serving needs from the real economy next year, state media quoted a vice governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) as saying on Saturday. Monetary policy in 2023 will ensure sufficient amount of liquidity and the structure will be accurate to aid key sectors, PBOC Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang said. "Funding cost will remain reasonably flexible, with little ups and downs," Liu was quoted by state broadcaster CCTV as saying. At the same forum, Vice Finance Minister Xu Hongcai said China will also implement a proactive fiscal policy next year, setting a reasonable deficit ratio and the size of local government special bonds. China will "appropriately expand the areas where special government bond funds can be invested and used as capital," CCTV reported Xu as saying.

☆ China Shows More Pragmatism—And Less Ideology—on Economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( James T. Areddy | Keith Zhai | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Confronting a struggling economy, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is loosening policies that have sacrificed growth at the expense of his relentless focus on centralized control, political purity and national security. The latest sign: Senior leaders huddling in Beijing for the Communist Party’s Central Economic Work Conference on Friday endorsed a more pro-business approach, saying China would “encourage and support the development and growth of the private economy and private enterprises.”

[1/4] People wait in line at a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) test centre in Xinyang, China, this still image obtained from social media video released December 15, 2022. China reported 2,157 new symptomatic COVID-19 infections for Dec. 15 compared with 2,000 a day. There is particular concern about China's hinterland in the run up to China's Lunar New Year holiday starting on Jan. 22. The COVID scare in China also led people in Hong Kong, Macau and in some neighbourhoods in Australia to go in search for fever medicines and test kits for family and friends on the mainland. JP Morgan on Friday revised down its expectations for China's 2022 growth to 2.8%, which is well below China's official target of 5.5% and would mark one of China's worst performances in almost half a century.

It marked the slowest growth since May when Shanghai was under lockdown, partly due to disruptions in key manufacturing hubs Guangzhou and Zhengzhou. Retail sales fell 5.9% amid broad-based weakness in the services sector, also the biggest contraction since May. "The weak activity data suggest that the policy needs to be eased further to revive the growth momentum," said Hao Zhou, chief economist at GTJAI. "The increased size of the MLF rollover this morning is in line with the overall easing policy tones. That would hit businesses and consumers, while a weakening global economy hurts Chinese exports.

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