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After more than half a decade of dramatically depreciating currency, burning through FX reserves and unorthodox monetary policy, Turkey's economy is battle-scarred. New economic and central bank team appointments since roughly a year ago appear dedicated to reversing Turkey's fortunes, no matter how painful the process. The central bank oversaw an aggressive cumulative rate increase of 3,650 basis points between May 2023 and January 2024. It said at the time that "tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is observed." "The authorities' shift towards policy normalization has galvanized investor interest in Turkish assets," according to a Citi report published Thursday.
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan Organizations: Citi Locations: Turkey
Dollar holds firm as traders trim U.S. rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
"The carry of holding dollars is far juicier," he said, while policymakers' rhetoric has also made traders nervous about inflation and the risk rate cuts would be distant or small. Traders have pushed out the timing of the first Fed rate cut to December. Thursday's business surveys from S&P Global supported the conviction among many traders that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. But not for traders who are positioned for Fed cuts. Rates markets still price a near 90% chance the ECB cuts rates next month.
Persons: Martin Whetton, Matt Simpson, Sterling, Christopher Waller Organizations: U.S, Westpac, Federal, Traders, P Global, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Locations: Sydney
Oil prices fall on worries of higher U.S. interest rates
  + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An aerial view of a crude oil storage facility is seen on May 4, 2020 in Cushing, Oklahoma. Oil prices eased for a fourth straight day on Thursday on worries that U.S. borrowing costs could be hiked again if inflation surged, a move that could hurt oil demand. Brent crude futures fell 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.63 a barrel at 0004 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures were down 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $77.14. Higher interest rates boost borrowing costs, crunching funds that could boost economic growth and oil demand.
Persons: Brent Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, Federal, Energy Information Administration, Organization of, Petroleum, Secretariat, Russian Energy Ministry, Wednesday, Citi Research, Citi Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, U.S, Russia, OPEC
Gold prices drift lower on hawkish Fed minutes
  + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices extended their record rally on Monday, supported by speculative buying and continued tensions in the Middle East, which overshadowed strong U.S. job growth in March. Gold prices fell for a third straight session on Thursday after minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting indicated that some officials were inclined to raise interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.3% at $2,370.74 per ounce, as of 0335 GMT, after falling more than 1% in the previous session. "Gold did take a bruising after the Fed minutes reminded investors that interest rate cuts are far from imminent," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. Spot silver fell 0.8% to $30.52, platinum edged 0.2% lower to $1,032.54 and palladium dropped 1.1% to $988.25.
Persons: Bullion, Tim Waterer, Waterer Organizations: Reserve, KCM, Fed, Traders, Reuters Locations: ., U.S
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up by over two basis points to 4.4374%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.8626% after rising by nearly three basis points. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Wednesday as investors considered the latest comments from Federal Reserve speakers about the outlook for inflation and interest rates. A series of Fed officials on Tuesday urged patience when it comes to rate cuts as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. On Wednesday, further Fed officials are set to give remarks and minutes from the central bank's latest meeting are due to be released.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Boston Fed, Atlanta Fed
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by less than one basis point to 4.4335%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.8371% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Tuesday as investors considered the path ahead for inflation and interest rates following a series of remarks from Federal Reserve speakers. Investors assessed the state of the economy, especially regarding inflation, and how this may affect interest rates. On the data front, existing as well as new home sales figures and durable goods orders data are due this week.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Barr Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.4179% after falling by less than one basis point. The 2-year Treasury yield was last up by less than one basis point to 4.8180%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Monday as investors looked ahead to fresh economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials slated for the week. Investors awaited the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials as they weighed the state of the economy and the outlook for interest rates. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at its last meeting, and indicated that interest rates would not be cut until policymakers were more confident about inflation easing to its 2% target.
Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, CPI
Rachel Wisniewski | ReutersAmericans are kicking the can down the road on some more-costly, traditionally financed purchases as elevated inflation and interest rates bite. "As a result, consumers continue to scrutinize their spending and make near-term decisions based primarily on need, price and perceived value. But those options have fallen out of favor as interest rates rose. He also cited increased interest rates as another weight on their shoulders. Lofty interest rates have also hampered housing improvement efforts for those staying put, according to Home Depot .
Persons: Rachel Wisniewski, Joe, Shelly Ibach, Ibach, FactSet, Mark Mathews, Platt, J, Mitchell Dolloff, Dow Jones, it's, Mathews, Enphase, Badri Kothandaraman, Marc Bitzer, Patrick T, bode, Robert Ohmes, Richard McPhail, It's, McPhail Organizations: Reuters, Reserve, Prosper, National Retail Federation, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Management, Commerce Department, Consumers, Whirlpool, Fallon, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of America, CNBC Locations: Gilbertsville , Pennsylvania, Minneapolis, U.S, California, Torrance , Calif, Minnesota
All three major averages closed higher for the week, driven by softer retail sales and consumer price data for April. And the data has been mostly good, with 78% reporting a positive earnings surprise and 60% delivering a positive sales surprise. But we will get earnings from three portfolio companies, including one of our two "own, don't trade" stocks. In the week ahead, three portfolio companies will report results, while it will be fairly slow for economic data, except for a couple of housing reports. Earnings : After a week without earnings from any Club stocks, we'll get three this coming week.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dow, we'll, TJX, Blackwell, Li Auto, James Hardie, Ralph Lauren Corporation, Booz Allen, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jensen Huang, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Wall, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, CPI, Palo Alto Networks, Palo, TJX Companies, Nvidia, Nexxen, Alto Networks, Video Communications, Trip.com, James Hardie Industries N.V, Nordson Corp, Keysight Technologies, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Lowe's Companies, Eagle Materials, Toll, ViaSat, Urban Outfitters, Target Corp, Devices, Dorian LPG, Dycom, Golden Ocean Group, Petco, Wellness Company, Sonoma, WSM, VF Corp, Star Bulk Carriers Corp, LiveRamp Holdings, Chemical & Mining Co, Grupo Supervielle S.A, BJ's Wholesale, Technologies, TD Bank Group, Intuit, Ross Stores, Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Mesa Laboratories, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Intelligence, SAP Center Locations: Palo Alto, Williams, Chile, San Jose , California
People stand in front of a Reserve Bank of India logo at the Global Fintech Fest in Mumbai, India, 5 September, 2023. Instead, there's been a flurry of activity this month at a number of regulators across India's financial system. That frightened bank investors and immediately knocked off more than 3% from the India Nifty PSU Bank index. "RBI has been tightening the screws," Rajeev Agrawal, hedge fund manager and managing partner at DoorDarshi India Fund, told CNBC's Inside India. We also had hedge fund manager Andrew Holland, who spoke on India's infrastructure projects and the outlook for the country's economy.
Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, there's, Nirmala Sitharaman, SEBI, Rajeev Agrawal, Agrawal, Shailendra Singh, India's, they've, Dinesh Kumar Khara, Andrew Holland, Sri Jegarajah Organizations: Reserve Bank of, Global, Securities and Exchange Board of India, Reserve Bank of India, Futures Industry Association, Bombay Stock Exchange, Reuters, India Nifty, DoorDarshi India Fund, Peak XV Partners, Sequoia Capital, CNBC, CNBC Pro, U.S ., State Bank of India, U.S . Federal Reserve, Center Locations: Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, India, Sequoia, Sequoia Capital India, Southeast Asia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Sri, Japan, Indian, Chennai
US stocks edged higher on Friday as all three major indices flirt with record highs. Solid earnings, easing inflation, and a resilient consumer have served as a trifecta for higher stock prices. Investors will turn their attention to Nvidia's earnings report next week to determine if the rally can last. AdvertisementUS stocks edged slightly higher on Friday as traders looked to push major indexes to fresh records. AdvertisementFast forward to next week, and investors will be laser-focused on Nvidia's earnings report, which could make or break the continued rally in AI stocks.
Persons: , Phillip Jefferson, Loretta Mester Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed
In today's big story, inflation is cooling just in time for a US presidential election that will likely focus heavily on the economy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyThe economy and the electionAnna Moneymaker/Getty, Anna Moneymaker/Getty, Tyler Le/BISometimes, the biggest surprise is when there isn't one at all. AdvertisementOn Wednesday, Biden and Trump agreed to face off in two debates, the first coming in June . Now he has 18 direct reports, according to an internal org chart seen by Business Insider.
Persons: , Anna Moneymaker, Tyler Le, haven't, Insider's Madison Hoff, they're, Jennifer Sor, Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Trump's, Alyssa Powell, Keith Gill's, Jim Simons, Shaw, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Sameer Samat, Sundar Pichai, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Biden, White, Democratic, Renaissance Technologies, Sigma, Bloomberg, Android, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart Locations: New York, London
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release data on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment for April on Friday. Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present. The firm expects this week's economic data releases to show a "softening in economic momentum," affirming its forecasts for the central bank to cut rates by the end of June. "Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present," said Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' China chief economist, in a note Sunday. Businesses' loan demand fallsNew bank loans to businesses and government organizations dropped sharply in April from March, as did new loans to households, according to official data accessed through Wind Information.
Persons: Hui Shan Goldman Sachs, Louise Loo, Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Goldman, RRR, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Visual China, Getty, BEIJING, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Finance, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Information, Clocktower, CNBC Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China, , Beijing, People's Bank of China
Malaysia will not use monetary policy as a tool to shore up its currency, according to the central bank's deputy governor. Bank Negara's Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid said the country's monetary policy decisions will be determined by economic growth and the inflation outlook. The ringgit currently does not reflect Malaysia's economic fundamentals and growth prospects, Bank Negara said in a statement last week. This has been fueled by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could hold interest rates higher-for-longer as inflation remains sticky. Adnan Zaylani said the central bank expects the U.S. interest rate cycle to turn at "some point in time," which will then reflect on the "ringgit performance."
Persons: Bank Negara's Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, CNBC's, Adnan Zaylani Organizations: Bank, Bank Negara, Korean, U.S ., U.S . Federal Locations: Malaysia
Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in April, more than expected
  + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Wholesale prices jumped more than expected in April, putting up another potential roadblock to interest rate cuts anytime soon. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core PPI also increased 0.5% compared to the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wholesale inflation rose 2.2%, also the highest in a year. Core PPI inflation was at 2.4%, the biggest annual move since August 2023. Services prices boosted the wholesale inflation reading, rising 0.6% and accounting for about three-quarters of the headline gain, while the final demand goods index increased 0.4%.
Persons: Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Reuters . Stock, BLS, Federal Reserve, Commerce, York
Read previewRussia's economy is fragile and policymakers won't be able to stave off a crisis for very long, a think tank researcher argued in a post on Tuesday. AdvertisementRussia's economy has flashed key signs of weaknesses since the West first began imposing sanctions on the nation in 2022. And high interest rates, necessitated by all that inflation, stifle investment in productivity and further distort the economy," Kolyandr said. AdvertisementOther experts have noted that Russia faces a dilemma as it juggles managing its economy and prolonging its war against Ukraine. According to one European economist, the nation has become dependent on war for economic growth, and it can't afford to win or lose the war.
Persons: , Alexander Kolyandr, Kolyandr, Putin Organizations: Service, Centre for, Kremlin, Business Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Central, Russia, West, Europe
On a one-year basis, the expectation increased to 3.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from March and the highest since November 2023. However, expected increases in housing prices are particularly troublesome for policymakers who expected shelter costs to ease this year. Along with expected higher home costs, respondents see rents rising 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month. They expect food prices to increase 5.3% (up 0.2 percentage point from a month ago), gasoline to rise 4.8% (up 0.3 percentage point); and college education to increase by 9%, a 2.5 percentage point surge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items CPI to show a 3.4% increase for April from the prior year, down 0.1 percentage point from March.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Dow Jones Organizations: Costco, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Labor Locations: Novato , California, New, New York
Stock futures flickered near the flatline Monday evening as Wall Street braced for the release of key inflation reports. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.08%. Another market catalyst will emerge Tuesday morning as the first of two key inflation reports will be released. "It's not unusual for Wall Street and Main Street to see the economy differently — the different perspective stems from different points of focus. Stock market movements are based on expectations of future economic performance, not necessarily current conditions," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.
Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Brent Schutte Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, New York Federal Reserve, PPI, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on May 9, 2024. Markets on Friday were pricing in an around 48% chance of a rate cut in June according to LSEG data, slightly higher than Thursday's 45% probability. "The broader message and the tone of the MPC were more dovish than we had anticipated," they said in a note published following the BOE's latest interest rate decision. The central bank on Thursday said it would leave interest rates unchanged for now, and stressed that a June rate cut was in no way guaranteed. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to cut rates, one more than at the central bank's previous meeting.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Yui Mok, YUI MOK, BOE Organizations: England, Bank of England, The Bank of England, Getty, Swiss Bank UBS, MPC, Monetary Locations: London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailState Bank of India says country's interest rates likely to stay higher for longerDinesh Kumar Khara, chairman of State Bank of India, discusses the outlook for the Indian central bank's monetary policy and the banking sector.
Persons: Dinesh Kumar Khara Organizations: Bank of India, State Bank of India
Consumer sentiment slumped as inflation expectations rose, despite otherwise strong signals in the economy, according to a closely watched survey released Friday. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76. Along with the downbeat sentiment measure, the outlook for inflation across the one- and five-year horizons increased. The inflation readings represent the biggest pitfall for policymakers as the Federal Reserve contemplates the near-term path of monetary policy. The next important data point for inflation comes Wednesday when the Labor Department releases its consumer price index report for April.
Persons: Dow Jones, Joanne Hsu, Paul Ashworth, Jeffrey Roach, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: The University of Michigan Survey, Dow, North, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, LPL, Fed, Labor Department Locations: North America, Michigan
CFRA's Sam Stovall has emerged as one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street, seeing more room for the S & P 500 to run to a double-digit gain this year. This updated target marks one of the highest on the Street, behind only the 5,500 target from John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer. It is also 6% higher than the average projection of 5,105, according to the CNBC Pro Market Strategist Survey , which rounds up the targets from the top 14 Wall Street strategists. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The S & P 500 is up more than 9% this year, driven by the continuous rally in many megacap tech names. Stovall sees the S & P 500 hitting 5,610 in the next 12 months, which would translate into a 7.6% gain from Thursday's close of 5,214.
Persons: CFRA's Sam Stovall, John Stoltzfus, Stovall, he's, Jerome Powell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC Pro Market, Survey, Federal Locations: Oppenheimer
Read previewThe US miscalculated when it imposed harsh sanctions on Russia, and not only has Vladimir Putin's economy weathered the impact, but the West is facing the negative effects of the economic restrictions it imposed. Food and energy prices have soared since the West imposed sanctions on Russia, he noted partly because Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of oil and grain. Even the US dollar may end up worse off due to sanctions, Rubin said. Russia's trade with China, for instance, has nearly completely phased out the dollar, Russian officials said last year. "Sanctioning the ruble and confiscating a third of the Russian central bank's foreign reserves was supposed to cripple the Russian economy.
Persons: , Vladimir, Jeff Rubin, " Rubin, crimp, Rubin, Putin Organizations: Service, Business, The Globe, Federal Reserve Board, Bank of Canada Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Russian
European markets are heading for a higher open Thursday, maintaining positive momentum in a busy week of earnings. Ferrovial, Telefonica, EDP, Enel, Pirelli and Salvatore Ferragamo are all due to report today. Elsewhere, the Bank of England is set to publish its latest interest rate decision Thursday. China stocks rose overnight as its imports surged past estimates and exports rose in line with expectations, while the broader Asia-Pacific market was mixed. Meanwhile, futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline Wednesday evening after the 30-stock index posted its sixth consecutive winning day.
Persons: Salvatore Ferragamo, it's Organizations: Ferrovial, Telefonica, EDP, Enel, Pirelli, Bank of England, Dow Jones Locations: China, Asia, Pacific
[The stream is slated to start at 7:30 a.m. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is speaking at a press conference following the U.K. central bank's latest monetary policy decision. Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.
Persons: Andrew Bailey Organizations: Bank of England, CNBC, YouTube
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