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☆ Opinion | The Gender Gap Is Now a Gender Gulf
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the coalitions supporting Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Nov. 5, 2024, will be significantly different from those on Nov. 3, 2020. On May 22, Split Ticket, a self-described “group of political and election enthusiasts” who created a “website for their mapping, modeling and political forecasting,” published “Cross Tabs at a Crossroads: Six Months Out.”Split Ticket aggregated “subgroup data from the cross tabs of 12 reputable national 2024 general election polls” and compared them to 2020 election results compiled by Pew, Catalist and AP. Combining data from multiple surveys allowed Split Ticket to analyze large sample sizes and reduce margins of error for key demographic groups.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, ” Organizations: Pew, Catalist

☆ What Really Happened in the Midterms?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More than eight months later, all the data from the 2022 midterm elections is — finally — final. The two most rigorous reports, from the Pew Research Center and Catalist, are finished. You might imagine ways to square the two claims, but neither report offers a clear way to reconcile these competing stories. Catalist, a Democratic data firm, doesn’t mention a word on the partisan makeup of the electorate, despite possessing the data to do so. The Pew report, meanwhile, is framed around explaining how Republicans won the House popular vote by three points — an important outcome, but one overshadowed by the Democratic hold in the Senate and the razor-thin Republican House majority.

Persons: ” Pew Organizations: Pew Research Center, Republicans, Biden, Democratic, Pew

☆ Are Democrats Actually Winning Older Voters?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

And yet the Times/Siena polls found the generic congressional ballot tied among seniors, at 45 percent support for each party. In a question asking how they voted in the 2020 presidential election, the polls still found Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump, 53 percent to 47 percent, among older voters. Democrats fared better among older voters in the Wisconsin mail survey than in any other major election study. The mail survey found the Democrat Mandela Barnes beating the Republican incumbent senator, Ron Johnson, by 52-40 among older registered voters. In the high-incentive mail survey, voters over 67 in 2022 (meaning over 65 in 2020) said they backed Mr. Biden by 55-38 over Mr. Trump.

Persons: Biden, Trump, Catalist —, aren’t, Wisconsinites, Mandela Barnes, Ron Johnson, —, Barnes, Johnson, VoteCast Organizations: Times, Democratic, Republicans, Republican, Mr Locations: Siena, Wisconsin

☆ Millennials Just Keep Voting
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In the 2018 elections — the midterms of Donald Trump’s presidency — turnout among younger voters surged. Almost twice as many people in their late 20s and early 30s voted that year as had done so in the midterms four years earlier. At the time, it was not clear whether the newfound political engagement of younger adults would last beyond Trump’s presidency. A central theme of the latest report, covering the 2022 midterms, was that “Gen Z and millennial voters had exceptional levels of turnout,” as Catalist’s experts wrote. In the 14 states with heavily contested elections last year, turnout among younger voters rose even higher than it was in 2018.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump’s, Z Organizations: Democratic, Democratic Party

☆ Millennials Are Not an Exception. They’ve Moved to the Right.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

And last fall, the young voters of ’08 — by then 32 to 43 — preferred Democratic congressional candidates by just 10 points in Times/Siena polling. The Financial Times, for instance, wrote that “millennials are shattering the oldest rule in politics” by not moving to the right as they age. Similarly, the Democratic data firm Catalist found that Democrats essentially haven’t lost ground among millennials and Gen Z over the last decade. The millennials of 2008 are not the same as those of 2016, for instance: Six additional years of even more heavily Democratic millennials became eligible to vote after the 2008 election, canceling out the slight Republican shift among older millennials. The shift to the right appears largest among the oldest “young” voters — the older millennials who came of age in a very different political era from today.

Persons: —, Obama, It’s, Catalist, Democratic millennials Organizations: Democratic, Times, Roper, Financial Times Locations: Siena, Iraq

☆ Strong midterm turnout in Georgia sparks new debate about a controversial election law
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Fredreka Schouten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

CNN —The strong turnout in Georgia’s runoff election that cemented Democrats’ control of the US Senate is sparking fresh debate about the impact of the state’s controversial 2021 election law and could trigger a new round of election rule changes next year in the Republican-led state legislature. “There’s no truth to voter suppression,” Raffensperger said in an interview this week with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, a day after Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock secured reelection in the first federal election cycle since Georgia voting law took effect. State election officials had opposed casting ballots on that date, saying Georgia law prohibited voting on a Saturday if there is a state holiday on the Thursday or Friday before. In the CNN interview earlier this week, Raffensperger suggested that the Republican-controlled General Assembly might revisit some of the state’s election rules, including potentially lowering to 45% the threshold needed to win a general election outright. “There will be a push for this in the upcoming legislative session,” said Daniel Baggerman, president of Better Ballot Georgia, a group advocating for the instant runoff.

☆ How Donald Trump could win the White House again in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Kimberly Leonard | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

"He has surprised everyone before," said Alex Conant, who managed communications for Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign. Jeb Bush's 2016 presidential campaign and is a Trump critic. John Kasich's presidential campaign, is clear: He predicts neither Trump, President Joe Biden, nor Vice President Kamala Harris will be their respective parties' nominees in 2024. Asked whether Trump could win if he stopped talking about 2020, she replied, "Can Trump turn into a unicorn?" Glenn Youngkin's 2021 campaign in Virginia as well as Sen. Ted Cruz's 2016 presidential campaign.

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Organizations: Universitatea Oxford Locations: Oxford

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