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The relationship between stocks and bonds has been a tight one in recent months, with equities falling as Treasury yields climbed to 16-year highs. Higher yields offer investment competition to stocks while also raising the cost of capital for companies and households. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 6% from its October lows. Draho expects the S&P 500 to trade between 4,200 and 4,600 until investors determine whether the economy will be able to avoid a recession. The S&P 500 was recently up more than 1% on the day.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Draho, Draho, Ryan Detrick, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Louise Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, CFRA Research, Carson Investment Research, Fed, Apple Inc, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries
The S&P 500 has climbed 15% in 2023, powered higher by Big Tech stocks. The index is likely to hit a new all-time high before the end of the year, Carson Group's top strategist said Thursday. "We still think there's a lot left in the tank here," Ryan Detrick told CNBC. "We've been overweight equities at Carson Investment Research since late December," Detrick told CNBC's "Closing Bell". The S&P 500 hit its record high in January 2022, reaching just under 4,800 points.
Persons: Carson Group's, Ryan Detrick, , Carson, Tesla, We've, Detrick, CNBC's, Organizations: Big Tech, CNBC, Service, Meta, Nvidia, Carson Investment Research, Reserve, Fed
This particular conversation has been chewed over pretty thoroughly, and I've hit on it last week and the week before . And perhaps more relevant, last week saw at least tentative signs of a desired broadening out. It's worth pointing out too that the recent surge in the familiar Nasdaq megacaps has a lot to do with mean reversion, after the Nasdaq lagged the equal-weighted S & P 500 in 2002 by 20 percentage points. The NDX has been in a long-term structural uptrend relative to the S & P 500 for the past decade. As noted, the S & P 500 touched 4,200 late in the week before easing back a bit.
Since the height of the financial crisis three weeks ago, the S & P 500 is up over 300 points, roughly 8%. Not surprisingly, the rest of the year is almost invariably a strong year. When the S & P 500 advances 7% or more in the first quarter, it's up an average 23% for the full year. April: spring shoots Best month for Dow Industrials: average 1.9%. advance Up 16 straight from 2006 to 2021 End of "best six months" strategy Source: Stock Trader's Almanac
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Given how the oversold indicators are piling up, a test or near-test of buyer's appetites is underway or should be soon. Having 2022 act as the year when all the tough medicine was administered has some appeal both for policy makers and investors. -Seeing some migration toward lower-volatility stocks, pharma, staples, some energy and Microsoft bouncing small after a recent breakdown. Need new lows or a capital-markets accident to jerk it much higher.
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