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☆ When will this Trump-fueled bull market approach bubble territory? Watch this indicator
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The CBOE Volatility Index , known on Wall Street as the VIX, helps traders track when a market rally is actually unhealthy, said DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas. Monday's close for the VIX around 15 "is a healthy sign" for the temperature of the market as it advances, Colas wrote to clients. To put it succinctly: "Rallies built on an elevated VIX signal a bubble," he wrote. That's a lesson market participants learned, during the dot-com bubble of the mid- to late-1990s, he said. In the current bull market, dating back to the fourth quarter of 2022, however, the VIX has been largely "well behaved," Colas argued.

Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Donald Trump, —, Monday's, Colas, That's, Jessica Rabe, Trump Organizations: Research, U.S

☆ 3 reasons why Warren Buffett is shunning stocks — including his own
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Warren Buffett isn't hot on stocks right now, and the 94-year-old CEO's latest moves reflect that. The cash hoard has grown as Berkshire pared down stakes in key holdings such as Apple and Bank of America . It's also raked in more than $10 billion from steadily selling Bank of America shares since the summer. Berkshire Class A stock trades at 22.6 time earnings. Lastly, Colas noted that Buffett may have "have identified one or more large acquisitions and is raising capital for those purchases."

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs, It's, Buffett, didn't, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Greg Abel, hasn't, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Berkshire, Nike, Disney, Apple, Bank of America, of America, DataTrek, Oracle, Berkshire Class Locations: Berkshire, Omaha

☆ History shows Nasdaq bull market could return more than 10% next year, barring a shock
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Nasdaq Composite index finally made a new all-time high on Friday, its first since July. But history shows there may be more than 10% upside ahead as stocks enter the third year of a bull market, according to DataTrek statistics. DataTrek co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe said they "remain bullish" on U.S. large-cap tech stocks because the average third year of a bull market has brought an increase of just 4.4% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the firm's data shows. The data, too, shows that another positive year for Nasdaq is no sure-fire bet. A two-year bull market after a losing year, the pattern we are currently in since the 2022 debacle, has continued into a third year just 60% of the time since 1971.

Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, What's Organizations: Nasdaq Locations: U.S, East, Europe

☆ The Nasdaq still has room to run, says DataTrek Research's Nick Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Nasdaq still has room to run, says DataTrek Research's Nick ColasNick Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the look ahead for the tech sector.

Persons: DataTrek, Nick Colas Nick Colas Organizations: Nasdaq, Research

☆ Conflicting economic signals are causing confusion in the bond market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground. Whether it's payrolls, gross domestic product or retail sales, or a host of other measures, growth looks solid, at the very least. On Wall Street, the general view was of concern: The Beige Book "showed no material improvement in a generally bleak outlook," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. However, if growth deteriorates, as the Beige Book indicates it has, that likely would push the Fed towards more reductions. "Despite recent stronger-than-expected data on U.S. employment, retail sales, and consumer inflation, the Fed's latest Beige Book signals a still weakening economy."

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Kathy Bostjancic, Peter Boockvar, Jerome Powell, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Citigroup, Nationwide, Bleakley Financial, DataTrek

☆ How Liberty Media became one of the world's most valuable sports empires
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Chris Hawes | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Charles Leclerc of Monaco driving the (16) Ferrari SF-23 on track during practice ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of Las Vegas at Las Vegas Strip Circuit on November 17, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mark Thompson | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesWhen Liberty Media Chairman John Malone finalized the $4.4 billion acquisition of Formula One in 2017, he knew he was onto something. Mark Thompson | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesEvening out the field created more exciting story lines, which Netflix seized on. But to crack America, F1 needed a spectacle, and the 2023 Las Vegas Grand Prix would provide it. Mark Thompson | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images

Persons: Charles Leclerc of Monaco, Ferrari, Mark Thompson, John Malone, Fred Vasseur, — Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes AMG, Zak Brown, CNBC's, Max Verstappen, Stuart Pringle, Malone, Brown, Stefano Domenicali, Alexander Albon, Williams FW45 Mercedes, Kevin Magnussen, Haas, Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace Organizations: Las Vegas, Circuit, Getty, Liberty Media, Formula, Liberty, Ferrari HP, Constructors, Honda, McLaren Racing, Oracle Red Bull, Prix, Qatar, Lusail, Netflix, Silverstone, CNBC, Dells, Miami, Austin, Vegas, Autodromo Jose Locations: Las Vegas , Nevada, Netherlands, parc ferme, Lusail City, Qatar, U.S, Vegas, Thailand, Denmark, Brazil, Sao Paulo

☆ Social Security Administration announces 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment for 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

More than 72.5 million Americans will see a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment to benefit payments in 2025, the Social Security Administration announced on Thursday. The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 is the lowest annual increase since 2021, when beneficiaries saw a 1.3% increase to benefits. While the cost-of-living adjustment for 2024 was 3.2%, beneficiaries saw the highest increases in four decades in 2023, with an 8.7% increase, and in 2022, with a 5.9% boost to benefits. Now that the pace of inflation has come down, the cost-of-living adjustments are more average. Social Security's annual benefit increases have averaged about 2.6% over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group.

Persons: COLAs Organizations: Social Security Administration, CNBC, Social Security, Senior Citizens League

☆ Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025: Here's how benefits may change
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, could be 2.5% next year, Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, predicted last month. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the COLA for 2025 on Thursday. Social Security COLAs have averaged about 2.6% over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League. More from Personal Finance:House may force vote on bill affecting pensioners' Social Security benefitsWhy children miss out on Social Security survivor benefits72% of Americans worry Social Security will run out in their lifetimesCould the Social Security COLA estimate change? The official Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will factor in one more month of government inflation data when it is announced.

Persons: Mary Johnson, Joe Elsasser, Elsasser, Alicia Munnell, Johnson, Hurricane Helene Organizations: Social, Social Security, Social Security Administration, Senior Citizens League, Center for Retirement Research, Boston College, Finance, Urban, Clerical Workers

☆ Nvidia CEO's comments partly behind market comeback, DataTrek's Nicholas Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia CEO's comments partly behind market comeback, DataTrek's Nicholas ColasDataTrek's Nicholas Colas joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss macro outlooks ahead of rate cuts, what will drive the next rally, how to position, and more.

Persons: DataTrek's Nicholas Colas DataTrek's Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nvidia

Social Security recipients can expect next year's annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to be the lowest since 2021, following cooler inflation readings in July and August. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 on Oct. 10. Much of the political debate about Social Security remains focused on reforming — and ultimately paring back — the entire program. But earlier this year, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania introduced the Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act, designed to increase Social Security benefits at a rate "that actually reflects the costs seniors face." "The Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act would help seniors contend with rising costs and ensure that Social Security remains a lifeline for all who need it.”

Persons: ” Mary Johnson, Johnson, Democratic Sen, Bob Casey of, ” Casey, ” Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Social, Senior Citizens League, Social Security, Medicare, Trustees, Social Security Administration, League, Democratic, Seniors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Social Security, Security Locations: Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania

☆ Markets get nervous over high core inflation and see the Fed cutting slowly
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE

☆ Social Security benefits aren’t keeping up with inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Tami Luhby | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But the widowed 78-year-old now has to skimp on her meals because her Social Security benefits haven’t kept up with the rising costs for food, housing and health care in recent years. Social Security benefits have lost 20% of their buying power since 2010, according to a recent analysis by The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group. Every January, Social Security recipients get an annual cost-of-living adjustment, known as a COLA, but the increases often don’t keep up with the actual rise in prices – hurting senior citizens, many of whom live on fixed incomes and depend heavily on their Social Security benefits. Social Security benefits have risen by 58% between 2010 and 2024, but the cost of goods and services purchased by typical retirees jumped 73% during that time, the league said. For Albrecht, it feels like her Social Security benefits have lost more than 20% of their buying power.

Persons: Janet Albrecht, haven’t, Albrecht, hasn’t, ”, Shannon Benton, That’s, “ Organizations: CNN, Security, Social, Social Security, Senior Citizens League Locations: an Indiana , Pennsylvania

☆ The yen carry trade unwind: A big complication for global markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In its simplest form, the yen carry trade has investors borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher yielding assets, often currencies. For example, because there is not a central source to track currency trades, we have no idea how big the yen carry trade is. The yen is rising, and that is making the yen carry trade less profitable. If the yen goes from 155 to 145, which is where it traded Monday, it will take $68,965 to repay that 10 million yen (10 million yen divided by 145 = $68,965). One positive sign: the ETF to watch is the Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), which tracks the price of the Japanese yen, had volume six times normal yesterday.

Persons: That's, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nikkei, Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Yen ETF Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ Don't rush to buy today, says DataTrek's Nicholas Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't rush to buy today, says DataTrek's Nicholas ColasNicholas Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the market sell-off and volatility.

Persons: DataTrek's Nicholas Colas Nicholas Colas Organizations: Research

☆ Why the Fed is being blamed for the historic stock-market plunge
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is catching some heat for the historic stock market plunge. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is to blame for the historic stock market plunge since last week, according to a growing chorus of market experts. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note that the lack of Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year will weigh on economic growth in the second half, and that any coming interest rate cuts from the Fed likely won't be enough. AdvertisementRegardless of what the Fed's motivation might be with waiting until September to cut interest rates, the market is taking away a pretty clear message. "There is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve," Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch said.

Persons: —, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, they've, we're, Kamala Harris, Mislav Matejka, Matejka, Paul Volcker, Volcker, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, John Lynch Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, CNBC, Washington DC, JPMorgan, Fed, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: Iran, Japan, Washington

☆ Expect volatility ahead until mega cap tech rebalances, says Data Trek's Nick Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect volatility ahead until mega cap tech rebalances, says Data Trek's Nick ColasNick Colas, Data Trek Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss stocks, the recent pullback and his market outlook.

Persons: Nick Colas Nick Colas Organizations: Trek Research

☆ Energy stocks are only real hedge in an oil shock crisis: DataTrek Research's Nick Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy stocks are only real hedge in an oil shock crisis: DataTrek Research's Nick ColasNick Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss what he calls summertime surprises in the market.

Persons: Nick Colas Nick Colas Organizations: Energy, Research

☆ Nvidia not overvalued despite low forward P/E and market cap, says DataTrek's Nick Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia not overvalued despite low forward P/E and market cap, says DataTrek's Nick ColasSean Myers, assistant professor of finance at the Wharton School, and Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss Nvidia's valuation, how much weight to give P/E ratios, and more.

Persons: Nick Colas Sean Myers, Nicholas Colas, CNBC's Organizations: Nvidia, Wharton School, DataTrek Research

☆ Why we care so much about the Dow, the stock market’s dumbest index
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Dow Jones Industrial Average is, at best, an imperfect barometer of stock market activity among a narrow band of very large US companies. It’s clunky, and too limited in scope for any Wall Street pros to pay serious attention to it. “Mention ‘the Dow’ and, to most people, that means the stock market,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, in a note to CNN. It’s just an index that tracks the stock market activity of 30 large US companies, from Amazon to McDonald’s to the Walt Disney Company. Market capitalization measures the total value of a company on the stock market.

Persons: Dow, ”, Hogan, It’s, “ Dow Jones ”, “, Nick Colas, you’re, ” Colas, Daniel Alpert, wasn’t, Goldman Sachs, Colas, I’ve, ” Alpert Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Dow, Riley Financial, CNN, Walt Disney Company, Westwood Capital, Standard Oil, US Steel, Microsoft, Apple Locations: New York, Amazon, Silicon

☆ Meme stocks extend short-squeeze rally to massive 100%+ gains with GameStop and AMC leading the way
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

GameStop and AMC Entertainment extended their gains on Tuesday to more than 100%. AMC Entertainment took advantage of the massive rally by selling shares to raise capital. AdvertisementWhat began with a Sunday evening tweet from Keith Gill, AKA Roaring Kitty, has materialized into a massive short-squeeze rally that has taken shares of GameStop and AMC Entertainment up 74% and 78% on Monday alone. Before the opening bell, shares of GameStop and AMC soared as much as 158% and 132%, respectively. The rallies have pushed a massive short-squeeze in the stocks, not unlike the 2021 rally that caught Wall Street short sellers off guard and sank a prominent hedge fund.

Persons: Keith Gill, —, Wall, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: GameStop, AMC Entertainment, Service, AMC

☆ Today's 'pain trade' is a rapidly rising market catching many investors off-guard
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A rapidly rising market has caught a lot of investors off-guard. He loves to watch what he calls the "pain trade," the move in the markets that would catch the largest number of active investors off-guard. Surveying Monday's late-day rally on the floor, Anderson looked up at the NYSE boards and said, "the pain trade is up." The S & P 500 is now within 1.4% of its old closing high of 5,254 from March 28th. The STOXX Europe 600, essentially the S & P 500 of Europe, is also less than 1% below an historic high.

Persons: Tim Anderson, Anderson, It's, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek, Ingersoll Rand, Parker, Hannifin, it's, Alec Young, MAPsignals.com Organizations: MND Partners, NYSE, Nasdaq, Utilities, Reuters, Southern Company, EatoN Corp Locations: Europe, industrials

She loaded her carry-ons onto the conveyor belt at the security checkpoint and prepared to walk through the metal detector. “I just felt like they were searching for something.”At first, when they flagged her bags, Griner wasn’t too concerned. This was her eighth season in Russia; she paid taxes there and was familiar with the country and its laws. As soon as she felt the cannabis-oil cartridge stowed in a zippered inner pocket in her backpack, her stomach sank. Griner was told to wait while the agent took the cartridges for testing, along with her passport.

Persons: “, ”, wasn’t, Cherelle, Griner, Lindsay Colas, Colas, Alex Boykov, Boykov, snickered, peered, “ I’ve Organizations: Moscow Locations: Moscow, Yekaterinburg, Russia, Arizona, United States, Russian

☆ 'Sell in May and go away' is a catchy adage, but probably not a good idea
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's not just that it has been a down month (down 3.0% for the S & P 500, breaking a 5-month win streak). However, weaker does not mean down. The S & P, even in the weakest five months, was still up almost 2%. The bottom line: market timing is always a tricky affair. Many of these timing maxims could be trumped by an even better one: "It's time in the market that matters, not market timing."

Persons: It's, Nicholas Colas, Jeff Hirsch, it's Organizations: Dow, Stock Locations: It's, DataTrek

☆ Would the Fed really hike rates here? This is what would have to happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.

Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

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