I’ve spent decades looking at the behavior of swing voters and how candidates appeal to them, including for Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996.
People usually assume that turning out so-called base voters in an election matters most, since swing voters are fewer in number.
And it’s true that in today’s polarized environment, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump each has about 40 percent of the country in their bases already and nothing will change those people’s minds.
Take Michigan, a battleground state where Mr. Trump has led Mr. Biden by as many as three percentage points in the last month.
Or Mr. Biden could switch just 125,000 swing voters and win.
Persons:
Biden, I’ve, Bill Clinton’s, Trump, Clinton, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, —
Locations:
Israel, America