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It's been a near-frictionless seven months for the S&P 500, with the benchmark index up a cool 26% since late October. While earnings were just fine in the first quarter, if they start to decline alongside a slowing economy, stocks will go with them. He sees the S&P 500 declining by more than 50% when all is said and done. The current inversion of 580 days implies a drop of around 65% for the S&P 500. Those fears have since dissipated, and the S&P 500 has rallied 47% since October 2022.
Persons: It's, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, BullAndBearProfits.com Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Bullandbearprofits.com Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Marko Kolanovic, Albert Edwards Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Fed, OVOM
Nvidia is the key to how stocks will perform in the next few months as investors head into a seasonally weak period for markets, with the macroeconomic picture once again a center of attention. Stocks capped a winning month in May after a strong earnings season and signs of easing inflation buoyed investor optimism. .VIX YTD mountain CBOE Volatility Index In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, is currently at 14. The broad market index was last around 5,220. Traders will have to rely on macroeconomic data for the next several weeks, including the May jobs report that's on deck next Friday.
Persons: Stocks, what's, Olivier Sarfati, Sarfati, Jensen Huang's, Josh Brown, Jonathan Krinsky, Jeff deGraff, CNBC's, deGraff, Rob Ginsberg, JC O'Hara, Roth, Dow Jones, Thomas Urano, Jobs, Cook Organizations: Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Ritholtz Wealth, Semiconductors, VanEck Semiconductor, Macro, Wolfe Research, Advisory, PMI, Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Body, Services PMI, Labor, Girls Global, University of, District of Columbia, Consumer Credit Locations: Smucker, Washington
We asked seven pro investors to identify the best trades of their careers and explain how the lessons from those decisions still apply today. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, shot above 40, essentially meaning traders were betting that the stock market would be exceptionally rocky over the following month. Jeff Muhlenkamp, lead portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp & CompanyJeff Muhlenkamp Muhlenkamp & CompanyJeff Muhlenkamp's namesake Muhlenkamp Fund (MUHLX) has been in the top 3% of its category in the past half-decade, thanks to trades like one he pulled off on Chinese internet firm Baidu (BIDU). "I pretty much expected, 'OK, if I get a double out of this in five years, I'll be happy' — that's pretty decent money," Muhlenkamp said. He noted that industrials within the Russell Mid Cap value index have returned 116% over the previous five years.
Persons: , That's, Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Berkshire, Rob Arnott, Tim Boyle, Arnott, I'd, Bob Elliott, Bob Elliott's, Elliott, Jeff Muhlenkamp, Jeff Muhlenkamp Muhlenkamp, Jeff Muhlenkamp's, Muhlenkamp, you've, Sona Menon, Cambridge Associates Sona Menon, Bryant VanCronkhite, Allspring Bryant VanCronkhite Allspring Bryant VanCronkhite, VanCronkhite, Russell, industrials, James Davolos, Davolos, George Patton, Harley Bassman, Harley Bassman's, Bassman, Merrill Lynch, I'm Organizations: Service, American Express, Business, Research, Bloomberg, Getty, Bridgewater Associates, Treasury, Securities, Muhlenkamp, Baidu, Google, North, Cambridge Associates, Allspring, Horizon Kinetics, Opportunities Fund, Credit Suisse Locations: industrials, West Africa, New York City, Guinea
As equity markets print new all-time highs and the CBOE Volatility Index prints 52-week lows, this should be considered as a bullish outlook by all accounts. However, if we look under the hood, the internals during this rally concern me and in my opinion, warrants buying some protection on these all-time highs. If we look at the Sector Rotation RRG Chart, we see that over the past five weeks, the rally in the S & P 500 has been led by utilities, energy and staples. With materials and industrials also rolling over, we simply lack the confidence to call a strong bull market on the recent all-time highs. I'm going out to July and buying the $530 puts on the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) for $7.35, which is only 1.3% of the SPY's value to buy over 2 months of protection.
Organizations: Trust
Breaking down the market charts The S & P 500 broke out above the 2021 highs of 4,820 in the first two weeks of this year. Again, I don't know. I don't know. And I'm content to come before you and say I don't know and we can't know. This measures how much premium is embedded in the at the money puts and calls in the S & P 500.
Persons: Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Nvidia, Inside Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management
Wall Street has great expectations for Nvidia 's earnings on Wednesday, according to Evercore ISI. Yet, how the artificial intelligence darling's stock will react is less clear — and it is likely to have big implications for the entire stock market, the firm said. The share price reaction will likely cause a ripple effect, he said. Over the past year, Nvidia's stock has had an "almost unimaginably close" day-to-day correlation to the S & P 500 of 0.95, he pointed out. which helped catalyze 2023's S & P 500 Fall Fall … the one certain thing is that NVDA's share price reaction, while difficult to gauge, will have consequences for the S & P 500 as a whole," Emanuel said.
Persons: NVDA, Julian Emanuel, Emanuel Organizations: Nvidia, ISI
You can't argue with a market making new record highs, though it's fair game to interrogate the tape about its assumptions and intentions. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 40,000 for the first time Friday and the S & P 500 settling above 5,300 after hitting a fresh all-time high Wednesday, the advice of history suggests not overthinking it. Keith Lerner, strategist at Truist, marks up a long-term S & P 500 chart to show times when it was at an all-time high. Brian Belski, strategist at BMO, last week lifted his year-end S & P 500 target to a Street-high 5,600 . And, quite remarkably, the stock market low of October 2022 occurred at an S & P 500 forward P/E above 15, with unemployment below 4% and in mid-economic expansion.
Persons: Stocks, Keith Lerner, Ned Davis, Brian Belski, Leuthold, Doug Ramsey Organizations: Treasury, Dow Jones, Dow, Ned Davis Research, Investment, Bank, Federal, BMO, Citi U.S, Vegas, Fed, Leuthold Locations: U.S
How to buy a put spread on the Nasdaq as a portfolio hedge
  + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
I want to focus on the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) tracking the Nasdaq 100 as the majority of this year's gains in the S & P 500 are derived from Magnificent 7 constituents. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has more beta than the S & P 500 and has the potential to increase rewards if this downside protective trade pays off. This trade is looking for roughly a 5% pullback to cover the cost of owning this put spread. The Trade Bought the 6/28/24 $437 put for $3.50 Sold the 6/28/2024 $420 put for $1.45 Total cost of this debit spread is $2.05 or $205 per one lot spread In the event the Nasdaq 100 continues to make new all-time highs, this spread will expire worthless But hopefully the Nasdaq 100 exposure you have in your portfolio will more than cover the cost of this hedge. DISCLOSURES: (Kilburg owns this spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .
Persons: Kilburg Organizations: Nasdaq
Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.
Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie
Whether retail investors profit from their bets on GameStop and AMC Entertainment or not, one group of companies looks set to cash in from the frenzied trading: stock exchanges. So-called meme stocks, which gained popularity through social media platforms like Reddit and Twitter (or X), have attracted retail investors looking to make a quick profit. Through this new innovative offer, we will offer retail investors a true one-stop-shop experience for equity trading," he said in May 2023. "The rise of retail options trading is another secular trend we're excited to build on with more platforms coming online for index options trading later this year, giving retail investors expanded access to our products," Howson said on an earnings call to analysts this month. ICE, which owns the New York Stock Exchange and several other exchanges, offers trading in stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and derivatives.
Persons: Eric Leupold, Deutsche Boerse, Benjamin Goy, Stéphane Boujna, FactSet, David Howson, Howson, Oppenheimer, Hannah Gooch, Peters, Marco Iachini ​, Organizations: GameStop, AMC Entertainment, Twitter, Deutsche Borse AG Deutsche Börse, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Corona, Deutsche Börse, DB1, Deutsche Bank, Global Equity, Cboe, Wall Street, Intercontinental Exchange, Sanlam Investments, ICE, New York Stock Exchange, Vanda Locations: Germany, U.S, Switzerland, Italy, Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, Lisbon, Milan, Oslo, Paris, France, Portugal, Europe
Courtesy of Erik SmolinskiHe says he has a long position in iShares Russell 2000 ETF (ETF, IWM) and ​​iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (ETF, TLT). AdvertisementThe portfolio addition for the hands-off investor: the iShares Russell 2000 ETFSmolinski recognizes that, as an investor, he's "more active than I imagine most people want to be." For the everyday investor who wants to be more hands-off, he recommends buying the iShares Russell 2000 ETF. This investment tracks the Russell 2000 Index, which measures the performance of small caps. That would be the next expression, so: looking at strong sectors, strong sub-sectors, then finding the leading stocks within those strong performing sub-sectors."
Persons: , Erik Smolinski, he's, Smolinski, He's, Russell Organizations: Service, Business, Marine, Treasury Bond, Nasdaq Locations: California, Norway, iShares Russell
Meme stocks are having a moment, but the broader market is rallying as well. While GameStop's 74% rally got a lot of attention Monday ( "meme stocks are back!" ), the evidence indicates that a broad rally is dragging up a lot of stuff that hasn't been performing well this year. The S & P 600 Small Cap advance/decline is also near the highest levels since December, while the S & P Mid Cap 400 advance/decline line is at a new high. So when you hear the tired old refrain, "meme stocks are back," take a look at the rest of the market.
Persons: hasn't, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, BoE, Ryan Detrick Organizations: Fed, ECB, Intel, Nike, Comcast, ChargePoint Holdings, CRISPR Therapeutics, Unity Software, Carson Group, CNBC
The return of "Roaring Kitty" sparked a jaw-dropping advance in GameStop shares Monday, but such a speculative rally in an unprofitable company will likely end badly once again. Roaring Kitty, the man who inspired the meme stock mania of 2021, resurfaced online with a cryptic image showing a man in a chair leaning forward. GME 5D mountain GameStop Pachter has a underperform rating on GameStop and a $5.60 price target. At Monday's peak, GameStop hit $38.20. During 2021's mania, GameStop shares hit an all-time high of $120.75 intraday, adjusted for a subsequent 4-for-1 stock split in the summer of 2022.
Persons: Kitty, Michael Pachter, Pachter, Jeff deGraaf, he's, deGraaf, Jerome Powell, Bernstein, Mark Schilsky Organizations: GameStop, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Macro
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email‘Very little fear' in market ahead of CPI report, CBOE’S Mandy Xu findsMandy Xu, CBOE, joins 'Fast Money' to talk volatility in the market and upcoming inflation read.
Persons: Mandy Xu Organizations: CPI
The S & P 500 has risen nearly 10% in 2024 and has racked up twenty-two new all-time highs. Since I believe that this recent Fed-induced rally will stall, I want to be positioned to capture another potential pullback (even if shallow again). .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Back in April, investors had very little interest in a string of U.S. Treasury auctions resulting in yields surging with the 10-year rate jumping to 4.7%. In the event you have long exposure to the S & P 500, this short call will serve as a hedge to that long exposure. I remain optimistic on the equity market in 2024 but, I believe the CBOE Volatility Index at 12 reveals complacency short-term.
Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Trust Locations: U.S
Stocks have been churning higher lately after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated rate hikes are likely off the table , a position that investors expect is a bullish event for equities. A strong earnings season, as well as some cooler labor data , also have investors more optimistic in this year's outlook. On Friday, all three major averages are on pace for a winning week, with the 30-stock index up by more than 2%. The market reaction Inflation data has been crucially important this year for investors. Export Price Index (April) 8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (April) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mike Dickson, Stocks, Dickson, Jeff Buchbinder, Buchbinder, Strategas, Jason De Sena Trennert, Ken Mahoney, Mahoney, Charles Schwab, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Horizon Investments, Nasdaq, UBS, Investments, ICE, Fed, LPL, Asset Management, Walmart, Deere, Retail, Cisco, Price, Housing, Philadelphia Fed, Manufacturing, Materials Locations: NAHB
The action quickly and sharply reversed back to the upside Friday after blowout earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft . In the week ahead, earnings are likely to drive the action again, though we'll get a few important macroeconomic reports. Earnings: We've got the biggest week of the earnings season ahead of us, with 12 Club holdings set to report. Eli Lilly 's report Tuesday morning continues to be all about sales of type-2 diabetes treatment Mounjaro and weight-loss drug Zepbound. In DuPont 's report Wednesday morning, we're looking for a continued rebound in its semiconductor business following a sequential increase last quarter.
Persons: Ford, we'll, Dow Jones, We've, Buckle, Eaton, Eli Lilly, Lilly, We're, Estee Lauder, Fabrizio Freda, we've, Linde, Bausch, Royal Philips, Woodward, SIRI, Archer, Johnson, Stanley Black, Decker, BAX, Cardinal Health, Parker, Belden, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Nasdaq, Microsoft, Meta, Google Search, Big Tech, Nvidia, Broadcom, Ford Motor, Honeywell, Danaher, Labor Department, Labor, PMI, Services PMI, GE Healthcare, Amazon Web Services, Starbucks, Deutsche Bank, DuPont, Bausch Health, U.S ., Appeals, Apple, iPhones, Vision, ON Semiconductor, Resource Partners, Franklin Resources, Paramount, Transocean Ltd, Semiconductors, Arch Capital, Logitech International, Lattice Semiconductor, F5 Networks, Sanmina Corporation, GE HealthCare, PayPal, 3M Company, McDonalds, Enterprise Products Partners, Cola Company, Melco Resorts, Entertainment, SiriusXM Holdings, Oatly, American Electric Power Company, Leidos Holdings, Marathon Petroleum, Daniels, Midland Co, Equitrans Midstream Corporation, HSBC Holdings, HSBC, Devices, Caesars Entertainment, Lumen Technologies, Mondelez, Pfizer, CVS Health, Barrick, Mastercard Inc, Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, Kraft Heinz Company, Marriott International, Ares, Generac Holdings, Johnson Controls, Cenovus Energy Inc, Qualcomm, Devon Energy, Paycom, Axcelis Technologies, Coeur D'Alene Mines, Sunnova Energy International, MGM Resorts International, MGM, Solar Inc, Oil, Allstate, Co, Tenable Holdings, Enovix Corporation, Gladstone Capital, Avis Budget Group, eBay, EBAY, LIN, Novo Nordisk, Natural Resources, PENN Entertainment, Apache, ConocoPhillips, InMode Ltd, Baxter International, Cardinal, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Apollo Global Management, LLC, Cinemark Inc, Dominion Energy, Coterra Energy, Coinbase, Bill.com Holdings, Booking Holdings, United States Steel, AXT Inc, Materials, Energy, Hershey Company, XPO Logistics, Cboe, American Pipeline, Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Brookfield Business Partners, Brookfield Renewable Corporation, Magna International, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, megaprojects, China, Eaton, Corning, Coeur D'Alene, Albemarle, ALB, Novo, New York
With interest rate uncertainty on the rise across the market, it may be time to buy stocks with a demonstrated history of low volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index — a yardstick of expected market volatility — briefly rose above 21 on Friday, its highest level since last October. The insurance stock currently has a 5-year beta of 0.54 relative to the S & P 500, and a price volatility score of 6.28. With a 5-year beta of 0.78 versus the S & P 500 and a 5-year price volatility score of 6.50, medical equipment maker Boston Scientific also turned up on the screen. Compared to the S & P 500, Merck's 5-year beta comes in at 0.39, while its 5-year price volatility scores a 6.06.
Persons: Joanne Wuensch Organizations: CNBC Pro, Boston Scientific, Citigroup, Boston, Pharmaceutical, Merck, Food, NextEra Energy Locations: UnitedHealth
It's called a managed futures strategy. That's according to iM Global Partner, which has the largest exchange-traded fund — iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) — that copies the strategy. Meanwhile, a managed futures strategy, with its short-term approach across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, is generally uncorrelated to longer-term bond and stock market performance. From January to October 14, 2022, for example, the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Strategy (CSAIX) was up around 26%. iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 33.9%2024 year-to-date returns: 13.1%Assets under management: $988 millionFirst Trust Managed Futures Strategy Fund (FMF)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 15.7%2024 year-to-date returns: 7.3%Assets under management: $144 millionKFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (KMLM)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 50%2024 year-to-date returns: 8.8%Assets under management: $284 millionSimplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA)
Persons: It's, , Andrew Beer, Seth Klarman's, Beer, we've Organizations: Global, Business, Treasury Bond ETF, Credit Suisse, Morningstar, Lucas Locations: DBMF, lockstep, VettaFi
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe spike in VIX this month hasn't been unexpected, says CBOE's Mandy XuMandy Xu, CBOE Global Markets head of derivatives market intelligence, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) trends, the potential for rates volatility spilling into equity markets, earnings season, and more.
Persons: Mandy Xu Mandy Xu Organizations: CBOE
Here are the 6 stocks that rise when Nvidia shares fall
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Six stocks in the S & P 500 rise often whenever Nvidia shares fall, according to a CNBC Pro analysis. A correlation of 0 would indicate no statistical link between Nvidia's stock and the share price of the six companies. Correlated returns also do not indicate causation or guarantee future returns or price action patterns. The below table highlights the 10 stocks in the S & P 500 with the strongest inverse correlation with Nvidia's share price. Trivariate Research's Adam Parker also named eight steady growth stocks that could replace Nvidia if investors are concerned that they are overexposed to it.
Persons: Jack Daniel's, Brown, Forman, Henry Schein, Katie Stockton, Trivariate Research's Adam Parker Organizations: Nvidia, CNBC, Electronic Arts, CNBC Pro Locations: U.S, lockstep
Several major gauges of fear in the market are reflecting increased alarm from investors. @VX.1 1Y mountain The VIX over the past year At the same time, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has tipped into "fear" territory this week. Rising oil prices have also weighed on the stock market, as commodity traders bought in on expectations of escalating conflict in the Middle East. But he said the key threat to this outlook is if the conflict in the Middle East further spirals. "But, the caveat is, if things really go sideways in the Middle East, that could change the calculus."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alex McGrath, You've, Dow, Jason Heller, Heller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Coastal Wealth Locations: East, Iran, Israel
Options premiums are rising and we'll discuss how to take advantage of that by generating income through a covered call options strategy. First the consumer price index inflation data came in hotter than expected on Wednesday. The expectation had been that the pace of inflation – once those year-over-year price increases were in place — would slow in March. Since then, the "average" level of the VIX Index is 19.53. Holders could therefore look to options to potentially provide some yield if they are expecting less capital appreciation.
Persons: Warren Buffett, 28th's, Buffett Locations: Europe, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, United States, Domino's
Conflict in the Middle East escalated over the weekend as Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel, and traders braced for a response. Investors have already been on edge as of late amid climbing oil prices and recent economic data that shows inflation is remaining sticky. Rockier times could be ahead, too, noted Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Tax-loss harvesting involves selling losers in your taxable account and using these losses to offset realized gains within your portfolio. Extending duration involves adding exposure to bonds with greater price sensitivity to changes in rates.
Persons: Paul Christopher, Christopher, rebalancing, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Information Technology, Communications Services, BlackRock, Treasury Bond ETF Locations: Fresh, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock
U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday night after a losing day for the major benchmarks. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures flickered near the flatline. The 30-stock Dow dropped 248 points, or 0.65%, in its sixth straight losing day. Those losses follow a rise in yields that had investors shrugging off strong earnings from Goldman Sachs , as well as hot retail sales data. Big bank earnings are set to continue Tuesday, with the release of results from Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson and Morgan Stanley.
Persons: Dow, Goldman Sachs, we're, Lauren Goodwin, CNBC's, Johnson, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Saturday, New York Life Investments, Bank of America, United Airlines, Traders Locations: Israel, U.S, UnitedHealth
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